Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose marginally by 0.04% at 1,627.94 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.04%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.01% Banks Index: -0.15%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 223.0m, up from Friday’s EUR 188.0m. We expect the market to seek direction today, amidst international in the stock markets.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek CPI up by 2.5% y-o-y in February (ELSTAT)
· Industrial production up in January (ELSTAT)
· Trade balance deficit widens in January (ELSTAT)
· Government repays State guarantee loans-Press
· FTSE Russel to announce on 8 April potential reclassification of ATHEX to Developed market
· Attica Bank | Net loss of EUR 323.5m in 2024 on NPE clean-up costs of EUR 398.2m
· ELLAKTOR and AKTOR Group confirm advanced talks for the sale of AKTOR Concessions
· Competition Commission clears the Acquisition of the real estate company MILORA by AKTOR Group
· Dimand FY24 results out
Macro Headlines
Greek CPI up by 2.5% y-o-y in February (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, CPI (national index) increased by +2.5% y-o-y (vs. 2.7% in January) and decreased by 0.1% m-o-m in February 2025, while the annual average rate of CPI increased by +2.7% over the trailing 12 months. The sectors with the most notable y-o-y movements were clothing and footwear (+6.4%) and Hotel – Cafes – Restaurants (+5.5%). Additionally, the harmonized CPI in February 2025 rose by 3.0% y-o-y (vs. 3.1% in January), in line with 3.0% flash estimate released earlier this month and remained unchanged m-o-m.
Industrial production up in January (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 2.0% y-o-y in January 2025, due to the increase by 4.3% y-o-y in Electricity supply index and by 4.3% in Water supply index while a decrease by 6.4% observed in Mining and Quarrying index.
Trade balance deficit widens in January (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT announced that the trade balance in January 2025 amounted to EUR 2,809m in comparison with EUR 2,589m a year ago, recording an 8.5% y-o-y increase, due to the 4.7% y-o-y increase in imports which more than offset the 2.2% y-o-y rise in exports.
Sector Headlines
Government repays State guarantee loans-Press
Press reports (euro2day) indicate that the General Accounting Office of the State has paid to systemic banks EUR 800.0m for State guarantee loans and that will pay another EUR 200-300m by the summer. The news is positive and expected.
Market Headlines
FTSE Russel to announce on 8 April potential reclassification of ATHEX to Developed market
FTSE Russell will release the March 2025 FTSE Equity Country Classification Interim Review Announcement after the US market close on Tuesday 08 April 2025, with Greek market being on the Watch List for possible reclassification from Advanced Emerging to Developed market status.
Company Headlines
Attica Bank | Net loss of EUR 323.5m in 2024 on NPE clean-up costs of EUR 398.2m
CP: EUR 0.72
P & L KPIs: The new Attica Bank group recorded a net loss of EUR 323.5m in 2024 on the back of LLPs of EUR 398.2m due to the inclusion in Hercules III of NPEs with a gross book value of EUR 3.6bn (Domus & Rhodium NPEs portfolios). Recall that Pancreta Bank’s activity for the period 04/09/2024-31/12/2024 is consolidated in the P & L statement. Thus, group net interest income came in at EUR 106.7m (+44% y-o-y) and NIM eroded marginally to 2.14% from 2.16% in 2023. Moreover, fee income came in at EUR 19.0m (+111% y-o-y), core income at EUR 125.7m (+51% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 148.2m. On the cost side, OpEx jumped by 38% y-o-y to EUR 115.2m and LLPs stood at EUR 398.2m. Cost to income ratio widened to 77.7% in 2024 from 75.1% in 2023.
|
KPIs (EUR m) |
2024 |
2023 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
106.7 |
74.2 |
44% |
|
Fee income |
19.0 |
9.0 |
111% |
|
Core income |
125.7 |
83.2 |
51% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
22.5 |
28.1 |
-20% |
|
Total revenues |
148.2 |
111.1 |
33% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(115.2) |
(83.4) |
38% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
33.0 |
27.7 |
19% |
|
Loan impairments |
(398.2) |
0.6 |
– |
|
Net Profit/ (Loss) |
(323.5) |
27.6 |
– |
source: Attica bank, Pancreta Bank consolidation from 04 Sep2024-31 December 2024
Pro forma P &L KPIs: Net interest income reached EUR 158.3m (+26% y-o-y), fee income EUR 27.2 (+51% y-o-y) and total operating income EUR 203.6m (+31% y-o-y), whilst OpEx stood at EUR 154.8m (+11% y-o-y) and Pre-provision income at EUR 48.8m from EUR 15.7m in 2023.
Attica Bank Like-for-Like KPIs: NII reached EUR 85.5m (+15% y-o-y), fee income EUR 13.6m (+52% y-o-y) and reported PPI came in at EUR 30.0m (+8% y-o-y) from EUR 27.7m in 2023.
Balance Sheet: Net credit expansion stood at EUR 952m in 2024 and at EUR 158m in 4Q24, while management NCE to accelerate to EUR 1.1bn in 2025. Gross loans came in at EUR 4.5bn in 2024 and at ca3.29bn (excluding loans of securitized portfolios). Deposits came in at EUR ca6.1bn (+93% y-o-y), o/w time deposits at EUR 3.5bn or 57.6% of total. Investment securities stood at EUR 1.7bn (EUR 675m q-o-q) and assets at EUR 7.54bn from EUR 3.77bn in 2023. GLD ratio stood at 54.0% from 54.3% in 3Q24.
Asset quality dynamics: Group NPEs amounted to EUR 127.0m, the NPE ratio (post the securitizations) dropped to 2.8% vs. 56.9% in 2023 and the NPE cash coverage stood at 47.8% from 61.3% in 2023.
Capital dynamics: Tangible equity came in at EUR 628.8m or EUR 0.3890/share, implying a P/TBV24 of 1.85x. CET1 ratio stood at 11.9%, 320bps above regulatory minimum OCR of 8.7% and CAD was shaped at 14.8% in 2024.
Restructuring and transformation costs 2025-2026: Management expects total restructuring and transformation costs (including rebranding) to shape at EUR 85.0m, equally spread between 2025 and 2026 (EUR 42.5m per annum), whilst management estimates that synergies will exceed EUR 30.0m in the next two years. The change in the corporate identity will take place in 3Q25 and a VES is being executed with 12 branch co-locations. According to management, the top priority is to complete the operational merger within 2025 with the integration of the IT systems of the two banks.
Guidance 2027/Conference call: Management hosts a CC today at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time and reiterated that it aims loans to exceed EUR 7.0bn and operating profitability at least to quadruple by 2027.
ELLAKTOR and AKTOR Group confirm advanced talks for the sale of AKTOR Concessions
In response to the HCMC, ELLAKTOR confirmed that it has received a non-binding offer by AKTOR for the sale of its subsidiary AKTOR CONCESSIONS and granted Aktor an exclusive period for negotiating and finalizing the agreement until April 30, 2025.
Competition Commission clears the Acquisition of the real estate company MILORA by AKTOR Group
The Hellenic Competition Commission approved the acquisition of sole control by “AKTOR GROUP OF COMPANIES” over the company “MILORA M.A.E.”, a EUR 600m real estate portfolio, as the small market shares, of the undertakings concerned no affected markets are observed and the transaction is not expected to significantly impede competition in the markets concerned.
Dimand FY24 results out
Dimand released a strong set of results with total revenues up by 211% y-o-y to EUR 28m, EBITDA up by 205% to EUR 58m and net profit of EUR 37m, vs. EUR 13m a year ago. Additionally, NAV was up by 28.6% y-o-y to EUR 180m, NAV/share at EUR 9.64, at a 13.9% discount to yesterday’s closing price. Finally, the company strengthened its capital structure with the cash of the group at EUR 38m vs. EUR 12m in FY23 and net debt down to EUR 34m vs. EUR 67m in FY23 while the GDV shaped at EUR 1,024m.
Calendar of Events
Macros
14/03/25 | Import Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
18/04/25 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign rating review
4Q/FY24 Results Release
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International, BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt)
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil (Aft-mkt)
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM), Autohellas (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
10/04/25 | Autohellas
23/04/25 | Bank of Greece (EUR 0.672), Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
03/06/25 | Noval Property (EUR 0.043)
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14)
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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