Market Comment
Some profit taking should be expected in today’s session as considerable short term gains may tempt investors to take some chips of the table ahead of the Easter break. However, some selective interest may provide support and moderate daily losses for the benchmark. Note that AthEx will remain closed on Friday and next Monday.
AthEx registered its fourth consecutive session of growth for its benchmark on Tuesday as European markets stabilized. It is therefore approaching the 14-year highs recorded in March, bolstered also by some optimism about a credit rating verdict of the country’s debt by Standard & Poor’s on Friday. The banking sector outperformed on the day, while industries and mid-caps lagged somewhat, just as daily turnover keeps decreasing.
General index closed at 1,656.48 points, adding 1.89% to Monday’s 1,625.77 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 2.05%, ending at 4,096.23 points. The banks index earned 3.80%, as National soared 6.43%, Piraeus grabbed 3.45%, Eurobank fetched 2.58% and Alpha improved 2.22%. Viohalco jumped 5.07%, whereas Titan Cement conceded 0.98%. In total 86 stocks secured gains, 35 endured losses and 40 remained unchanged. Turnover was the lowest of the last nine sessions, amounting to €145m, down from Monday’s €150m.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/Economy: Greece announced on Tuesday the reopening of a 10-year bond issue on Wednesday maturing on March 12, 2029 and carrying a fixed interest of 3.875%. The Public Debt Management Authority plans this reopening to satisfy investment demand and to facilitate operations in the secondary bond market. The auctioned sum will be 200 million euros and settlement date will be Friday, April 25. The auction will be made with the primary dealers of the market. Note that S&P will review Greece’s credit rating on Friday April 18; it currently assigns a BBB- rating (investment grade) with Positive outlook.
Fourlis: The company completed the acquisition of Foot Locker operations in Greece and Romania ie 3 operating stores in each country adding to the already 3 stores that have initiated operations in Bulgaria. Fourlsi plans to open in total 100 Foot Locker stores in 8 countries in which has taken over the brand’s representation opting to €250mn sales with an EBITDA margin of 8-10%, higher than existing sporting goods business (Intersport) that bears a 7% EBITDA (OPR) margin (FY:24).
Piraeus Bank: AGM cleared €0.3/share net capital return for 2024.
Ideal Holdings: OHA concluded the capital injection of €61.5mn in the new Corporate Vehicle (CV) formed between Ideal and OHA, thus acquiring a 15% stake in the CV. Recall that the CV controls ADS, IT sector (Byte, Adacom and Bluestream) and Barba Stathis. OHA maintains the option to acquire an additional 10% stake in CV in the next 6 months period while OHA will acquire i9n 2 phases up to 2mn Ideal shares at €6/share. OHa has also committed to invest up to €200mn in the next 2 years for the business development of CV.
OTE: AGM on June 23. Ex-dividend date July 3. Dividend payment July 9. H1:25 results August 6.
Jumbo (Q1:25 trading update): March 2025 sales down by 2% due to strong seasonality in Greece and Cyprus as carnival period switched to beginning of March (2nd) rather than March 17 in 2023. First 15 working days in April record a positive adjustment in sales growth rate.
The company refrained from providing guidance for once again due to the volatility and constant fluctuations in a tough global operating environment that affect costs and inventories, but benefitting on the other hand FX rates (€/$ parity) and global oil prices related to transportation costs.
The management sticks with providing initial FY:25 guidance on the AGM on April 28. Greek sales in March were down by 7% while rose 10% in Q1:25. Cyprus drop was sharper in March (-85) with milder growth in Q1 (+6%). Bulgaria was up 4% in March and 2% ytd (Q1). Lastly, Romania was up 12% in March and +6% in Q1.
PPC: Hellikon stake reduced to below the 5% threshold.
Alpha Trust Andromeda: FY:24 gross dividend €0.32/share ex-date May 19. Scrip dividend option available based on VWAP price between May 21 to May 27 with 1% discount.
Thessaloniki Port Authority (FY:24 Results): Thessaloniki Port Authority reported record financial and operational performance for fiscal year 2024, despite global challenges such as geopolitical instability and supply disruptions. BOD will propose dividend of 2.0 eur/share vs. 1.3 eur/share for FY:23 posting an increase of 54% y-o-y and an impressive div. yield of 6,9%. Key highlights:
Key Highlights:
§ Record Revenues: €100.7 million, up €14.8m (+17% y-o-y); EBITDA: €42.6 million, an increase of €8.6m (+25%) from 2023, with a 42% EBITDA margin (up 3 percentage points); Gross Profits: €47.1 million, up €9.5m (+25% y-o-y) compared to 2023; Net earnings at €28m up 38.4% y-o-y.
§ CapEx at €6.3m; healthy levels of financial liquidity due to consistent and strong OCF, reaching €123m total cash, cash equivalents and financial assets, including term deposits with a duration of more than 3 months of € 76,4m. reflecting an increase of €28m. compared to the previous year.
§ Operating performance: Container Terminal Throughput: 566,000 TEUs, up 46,000 TEUs (+9%); Conventional Cargo: 3.2 million tons, up 250,000 tons (+9%); Cruise Traffic: 81 cruise calls (+19%) with 125,000 passengers (+105%).
§ Sector Revenue Growth: Container Terminal: +€11.5 million (+19%); Conventional Cargo Terminal: +€2.9 million (+14%); Passenger Traffic: +€0.5 million (+54%); Real Estate: +€0.3 million (+7%)
§ AGM on May 14th; Ex-date 16 May, payment starts on May 22. The group will brief analysts on Tuesday April 29.
The following table summarise results:
|
Thessaloniki Port |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
85,870 |
100,652 |
17.2% |
|
EBITDA |
32,588 |
42,636 |
30.8% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
38.0% |
42.4% |
+441 bps |
|
Net Income |
20,251 |
28,023 |
38.4% |
|
Net Mrg |
23.6% |
27.8% |
+426 bps |
AS Company (Results FY:24): AS Company posted record-high sales of €31.0m, marking an 8.05% increase from 2023. Despite a 6.48% dip in pre-tax earnings (€5.568 million) due to investments, profitability remained solid, supported by a robust gross margin of 48.57%. Management will propose a total dividend of 0.17 eur/share, note that AS Company has already distributed an interim of 0.05 eur/share. Key Developments:
§ Integration of major international brands (Chicco, Boppy, Bébé Confort, Safety 1st) expanded the Group’s product portfolio and distribution reach.
§ Subsidiaries contributed 15.72% of sales and 17.19% of EBITDA, highlighting a successful multichannel and geographically diverse business model.
§ The company invested €1.52 million in acquiring brand assets via “V. & M. Skarmoutsos S.A.”
§ Continued diversification through investment properties in Crete, totaling €4.242 million, aimed at leveraging opportunities in tourism.
§ Total liquid assets and investment properties stood at €20.1 million as of December 31, 2024, up €1.78m y-o-y, underscoring financial resilience. Remains net cash of €2.9m
§ Outlook for 2025: Focus on improving profitability and returns from recent investments; Further enhance liquidity and international market presence; Maintain leadership in the Greek toy market and pursue new partnerships.
§ The Company will hold a CC with investors and financial analysts today at 17:30 GR time.
The following table summarise results:
|
AS COMPANY |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
Q4 |
Q4 |
(%) |
|
Sales |
28,697 |
31,007 |
8.0% |
10,196 |
11,947 |
17.2% |
|
EBITDA |
5,500 |
5,166 |
-6.1% |
1,889 |
1,462 |
-22.6% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
19.2% |
16.7% |
-251 bps |
18.5% |
12.2% |
-629 bps |
|
Net Income |
4,533 |
4,210 |
-7.1% |
1,160 |
201 |
-82.7% |
|
Net Mrg |
15.8% |
13.6% |
-222 bps |
11.4% |
1.7% |
-969 bps |
CC details:
§ GR +302111802000 or +302109460800
§ UK +44(0)2030595872
§ US +15164475632
KRI-KRI (FY:24 results preview): The company reported a mixed set of FY:24 performance with sales coming ahead both of company’s guidance (€245mn) and our estimate while EBITDA and Net income retreated yoy, leading to a miss in our call. FY:24 gross dividend €0.4/share, spot on our call and above FY:23 €0.35/share. In more details:
§ Sales augmented 18.5% to €256.4mn vs €216.33mn a year earlier. That strong increase in sales was driven primarily by yogurt exports (+32.5%), and secondarily by the ice cream segment (+19.4%).
§ In the yogurt segment total sales increased by +18.2% in value and by +19.5% in volume. Yogurt export sales show a strong double-digit growth of +32.5%, exceeding €129mn. This boost in sales is contributed by the major markets of the UK (+43%) and Italy (+17%) as well as KRIKRI’s penetration to new markets such as France.
§ In the domestic market, yogurt sales reached €76mn, almost stable in value, and slightly increased in volume terms (+4.5%). Price reductions directed to support domestic consumption. In terms of market dynamics, the shift of consumers toward PL yogurts continued -albeit with less intensity- as a result of their preference for more affordable options. Overall, the market has entered a period of realignment, particularly in terms of product categories and consumer preferences. KRI-KRI branded yogurts lost 1.2 percentage points in market share, bringing the Company’s market share to 14.9%, while still maintaining second place overall (Circana data (ex- IRI), in value, Jan–Dec 2024).
§ In the domestic ice cream market, sales presented a double-digit increase (+13.4%) in value. KRIKRI ice cream market share decreased by 0.4p.p. in value (14.0%) and by 1.1p.p. in volume (11.6%) [NIELSEN data, Jan.-Dec. 2024]. Within the current highly inflationary environment, that facilitates private label products’ growth, KriKri is attempting to defend its MS by expanding its sales network.
§ EBITDA came in at €42.6mn vs €45.12mn in 2023, dropping 5.6% on a yearly basis, a negative delta of 8.7% vs our estimate of €46.7mn. EBITDA was adversely affected by the rise in milk prices during H2:25. Worth noting that Q4:24 Greek yogurt EBITDA came in negative at €1.1mn vs €3.33mn positive EBITDA in Q4:23.
§ Net profit settled 7.1% higher to €34.6mn vs €32.3mn, pointing to a negative delta of 8% vs our call (€37.57mn), despite the positive effect of €5.28mn related to tax reliefs recognized related to past year’s subsidies investments.
§ Gross op CF €43.325mn vs €45.625mn, Op CF at €29.975mn (€49.090mn in 2023), FY:24 CAPEX stood at €26.659mn, FY:24 FCF €3.32mn from €35.36mn in 2023.
§ FY:24 net cash €12.16mn from €9.2mn net cash in 2023.
§ FY:25 guidance: Sales +17% to €300mn with exports again being the main growth driver. EBIT margin to drop to 14-15%. Q1:25 sales >20%. Guidance for FY:25 points to a CAPEX range between €21-€25mn.
§ Challenging and tough operating environment in place, especially in the domestic market with inflation pressures, rising costs (energy, milk prices), increased competition and humid economic outlook due to trade war render guidance challenging in our view.
§ We maintain OUTPERFORM rating, switch our base year model to 2025 and will adjust our TP, currently at €14.80 accordingly.
§ Trading Multiples: FY:25 PE 12.7x, EV/EBITDA 8.5x, DY 3.1%. Projected Net cash €20mn.
§ We look to seek more information on the USA ice cream project and margins prevailing in Q1:25 following the +2% sales growth in Q1.
The following tables summarise results vs our estimates:
|
KRIKRI |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2024 Est. |
Act. vs |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2024 Est. |
Act. vs |
|
EUR m. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
FY |
Est. |
Q4 |
Q4 |
(%) |
Q4 |
Est. |
|
Sales |
216.3 |
256.4 |
18.5% |
251.9 |
1.8% |
39.7 |
48.9 |
23.4% |
44.4 |
10.1% |
|
EBITDA |
45.1 |
42.6 |
-5.6% |
46.7 |
-8.7% |
3.6 |
-1.1 |
-131.3% |
3.0 |
-137.9% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
20.9% |
16.6% |
-424 bps |
18.5% |
-192 bps |
9.0% |
-2.3% |
-1,132 bps |
6.7% |
-895 bps |
|
Net Income |
32.3 |
34.6 |
7.1% |
37.57 |
-8.0% |
2.1 |
-1.8 |
-187.3% |
1.2 |
-250.2% |
|
Net Mrg |
14.9% |
13.5% |
-144 bps |
14.9% |
-144 bps |
5.2% |
-3.7% |
-894 bps |
2.7% |
-642 bps |
|
KRIKRI P&L (€mn) |
FY 2023 (A) |
FY 2024 (A) |
% chng y-o-y |
FY 2024 Est |
Act vs Est |
|
Greece |
108.39 |
112.59 |
3.88% |
112.43 |
0.15% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
50.10% |
43.91% |
|
44.63% |
|
|
International |
105.90 |
141.10 |
33.24% |
136.73 |
3.19% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
48.95% |
55.03% |
|
54.28% |
|
|
Ice Cream Greece |
32.34 |
36.68 |
13.40% |
37.52 |
-2.24% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
14.95% |
14.30% |
|
14.89% |
|
|
Ice Cream International |
8.38 |
11.93 |
42.34% |
10.93 |
9.07% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
3.87% |
4.65% |
|
4.34% |
|
|
Ice Cream Total |
40.72 |
48.60 |
19.35% |
48.45 |
0.31% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
18.82% |
18.96% |
|
19.23% |
|
|
Yogurt Greece |
76.05 |
75.92 |
-0.17% |
74.91 |
1.35% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
35.15% |
29.61% |
|
29.73% |
|
|
Yogurt International |
97.52 |
129.17 |
32.46% |
125.80 |
2.68% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
45.08% |
50.38% |
|
49.94% |
|
|
Yogurt Total |
173.56 |
205.09 |
18.16% |
200.70 |
2.18% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
80.23% |
79.99% |
|
79.67% |
|
|
Other Sales |
2.04 |
2.71 |
32.64% |
2.76 |
-1.75% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
0.94% |
1.06% |
|
1.09% |
|
|
Consolidated Sales |
216.33 |
256.40 |
18.52% |
251.91 |
1.78% |
|
Ice Cream Gross Profit |
18.72 |
21.22 |
13.35% |
22.01 |
-3.57% |
|
IC Gross Profit margin |
45.98% |
43.66% |
-231 bps |
45.42% |
-176 bps |
|
Yogurt Gross Profit |
53.26 |
54.31 |
1.97% |
58.34 |
-6.91% |
|
Yogurt Gross Profit margin |
30.69% |
26.48% |
-421 bps |
29.07% |
-259 bps |
|
Other Gross Profit |
0.48 |
0.60 |
24.14% |
0.50 |
19.61% |
|
Consolidated Gross Profit |
72.47 |
76.13 |
5.06% |
80.85 |
-5.83% |
|
Gross Profit margin |
33.50% |
29.69% |
-381 bps |
32.09% |
-240 bps |
|
Total Expenses |
27.34 |
33.53 |
22.64% |
34.16 |
-1.85% |
|
% on sales |
12.64% |
13.08% |
+44 bps |
13.56% |
-48 bps |
|
EBITDA |
45.12 |
42.60 |
-5.59% |
46.68 |
-8.75% |
|
EBITDA margin |
20.86% |
16.61% |
-424 bps |
18.53% |
-192 bps |
|
D&A |
4.85 |
5.35 |
10.39% |
5.14 |
4.14% |
|
% over sales |
2.24% |
2.09% |
-15 bps |
2.04% |
+5 bps |
|
EBIT |
40.28 |
37.25 |
-7.52% |
41.55 |
-10.35% |
|
EBIT margin |
18.62% |
14.53% |
-409 bps |
16.49% |
-197 bps |
|
Net Financials |
0.02 |
0.32 |
1253.49% |
-0.18 |
-277.93% |
|
% on sales |
0.01% |
0.12% |
+11 bps |
-0.07% |
+19 bps |
|
EBT |
40.30 |
37.57 |
-6.79% |
41.37 |
-9.20% |
|
EBT margin |
18.63% |
14.65% |
-398 bps |
16.42% |
-177 bps |
|
Taxes |
8.03 |
3.02 |
-62.41% |
3.80 |
-20.58% |
|
Tax Rate |
19.93% |
8.04% |
-1,189 bps |
9.19% |
-115 bps |
|
NET INCOME |
32.27 |
34.55 |
7.06% |
37.57 |
-8.04% |
|
Net Margin |
14.92% |
13.47% |
-144 bps |
14.91% |
-144 bps |
CC Details: Wednesday April 16 at 3pm local GR Time
· GR: +30 211 198 4488
· UK: +44 203 481 5240 United Kingdom
· USA: +1 929 205 6099
· WEB: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/81123267480?pwd=Ple8v5ElVfOxiYK1hHF6YvKWvoJzMI.1
Other FY:24 results:
|
Kepenos mills |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
63,537 |
57,912 |
-8.9% |
|
EBITDA |
3,966 |
3,766 |
-5.0% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
6.2% |
6.5% |
+26 bps |
|
Net Income |
624 |
790 |
26.6% |
|
Net Mrg |
1.0% |
1.4% |
+38 bps |
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