We remain optimistic for 2025e.
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Today’s Headlines
· Greece sells 3-month T-bills at 2.82%
· Retail Sales slightly down in October (ELSTAT)
· Electricity Suppliers announce unchanged tariffs for January
· Completion of disposal of 35% of DEPA Commercial from HELLENiQ ENERGY to HRADF
· Fourlis Stock Option Plan
Market Comment
After a strong 2023, the international stock markets maintained the positive momentum in 2024, with the major indices setting new all-time highs (Dow Jones +13.6% YoY, S&P +25.2%, DAX +20.0%), supported by the de-escalation of the interest rates, the “Trump rally” and also the anticipation for strong EPS growth for 2025e in the US.
ATHEX’ performance was rather front-loaded, as it enjoyed an exceptionally strong first half, setting a multi-year high in May at 1,503 units, and trading within a 1,350-1,480 range thereafter, underperforming most international markets during the 2H24 and after a strong December, closed at 1,470 units (up by 13.6% YoY).
The top winners in 2024 were Titan Cement (+87.4% YoY), Optima Bank (+65.9% YoY), GEKTERNA (+40.4% YoY), Eurobank (+38.4% YoY) and CENERGY (+31.8% YoY), while on the flip side, main laggards were Aegean Airlines (-10.8% YoY), ELLAKTOR (-12.6% YoY) and Motor Oil (-13.1% YoY).
The banks index jumped by 21.1% YoY, driven by Eurobank Bank (+31.5% YoY) and National Bank (+21.8% YoY), followed by Piraeus Bank +20.3% YoY) and Alpha Bank (+5.1%). Turning to Tuesday, the General index rose by 0.92% at 1,469.67 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.89%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.43%, Banks Index: +0.36%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 71.2m, down from Monday’s EUR 80.5m.
We expect a quiet session on thin volumes today, with ATHEX eyeing the international trends. Looking into 2025e, the outlook for the Greek stock market remains positive, taking into account
a) the expected faster expansion of the Greek GDP compared to the EU, (according to EC, Greek GDP is poised to grow by +2.3% vs. EU average of 1.5%),
b) the ramp-up of the implementation of the projects financed by the Recovery Fund
c) the disciplined fiscal policy with primary surplus of 2.4% in 2025 and the further drop of the Government Debt/GDP ratio,
d) the lower GGB yields, e) the deeper discounts of the Greek stock market compared to last year and
f) Dividend yield of 6.2% in 2025e (Factset), higher than EU peers.
Major challenges in our view for the year remain the timely absorption of the EU funds, the timely de-escalation of the interest rates, the potential trade tensions between the US and the EU, A major correction in the international equity markets, especially the US and the persistent geopolitical risks, mainly in the Ukraine war. That said, we remain optimistic for 2025e.
Macro Headlines
Greece sells 3-month T-bills at 2.82%
The Greek State raised EUR 600m on Tuesday from the issuance of 13–week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 722m (1.44x coverage ratio vs. 2.12x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.82% (vs. 2.63% in the previous auction.
Retail Sales slightly down in October (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) rose by 2.3% y-o-y in October 2024 (and increased by 0.9% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales decreased by 0.6% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector increased by 3.2% y-o-y and sales volume were also up (2.8% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales increased by 1.6% y-o-y with sales volume down by 0.1% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector decreased by 14.2% y-o-y, with sales volume down by 7.3% y-o-y.
Sector Headlines
Electricity Suppliers announce unchanged tariffs for January
The electricity suppliers announced flattish tariffs for January, supported by the lower wholesale price (wholesale electricity price in December shaped at EUR 129.81/MWh from EUR 137.42/MWh in November). PPC and METLEN’s Protergia have already announced unchanged tariffs for January at EUR 155/MWh and EUR 159/MWh respectively.
Company Headlines
Completion of disposal of 35% of DEPA Commercial from HELLENiQ ENERGY to HRADF
HELLENiQ ENERGY announced that the transfer of the Company’s 35% participation in the share capital of DEPA Commercial to the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund is completed. As a reminder, the initial Transaction consideration was set at EUR 208m, (plus/minus any adjustments), and half of the proceeds will be returned to the shareholders of HELLENiQ ENERGY in dividends (EUR c0.30-0.32/share).
Fourlis Stock Option Plan
The company announced that the selected beneficiaries of the stock option plan were invited to exercise their rights corresponding to a total of 1,579,000 new common shares. Following the payment, the company will increase its share capital by the amount of EUR 843,300 after the issuance of 843,300 shares.
Calendar of Events
Macros
02/01/25 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI DEC (09:00 UTC)
03/01/25 | Unemployment Rate NOV (ELSTAT)
08/01/25 | Economic Sentiment Indicator DEC
10/01/25 | Industrial Production Index NOV (ELSTAT)
4Q/FY24 Results Release
20/02/25 | METLEN (Bef-mkt)
27/02/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt)
28/02/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
10/01/25 | Unibios (EGM)
30/01/25 | ELLAKTOR (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
20/01/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (interim dividend EUR 0.20/share)
23/01/25 | Thrace Plastics (interim dividend EUR 0.0685848289/share)
Ex-Capital Return
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
Share Capital Increase – AKTOR Group
07/01/25 | Ex-rights date
10/01/25-21/01/25 | Trading period of rights
10/01/25-24/01/25 | Subscription period & exercise of rights
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Research Department |
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