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Market Comment AthEx had a session of two halves on Thursday, as the early decline recorded in prices was later replaced by growth that left the benchmark with moderate gains upon closing and the great majority of stocks with growth, especially mid-caps. General index closed at 1,617.56 points, adding 0.23% to Wednesday’s 1,613.78 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.27%, ending at 3,627.88 points, and mid-caps grew 0.80%. The banks index advanced 0.30%, as Piraeus augmented 1.45%, Optima earned 1.15%, Alpha improved 0.27% and Eurobank edged up 0.08%, while National conceded 0.35%. In total 67 stocks collected gains, 38 sustained losses and 17 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €123.9m, down from Wednesday’s €150.3 m. Ahead of the bank results season and updated business plan targets, coming next week, investors may continue their selective stance in today’s session. Note also that February FTSE-25 futures expire today. ¢ In the Spotlight Greece/Budget Execution: The state budget showed a higher primary surplus of 1.8 billion euros on a cash basis in January, from €945 million last year, according to the Bank of Greece. Last month the central government cash balance recorded a surplus of €560 million, compared to a deficit of €239 million in the same month of 2024. During that month, ordinary budget revenue amounted to €5.7 billion, compared to €5.09 billion in January last year. Ordinary budget expenditure amounted to €5.49 billion, from €4.6 billion in January 2024. Greece/Current Account Balance: FY:24 current account deficit up 8.63% y-o-y to €15.1bn from €13.9bn in 2023. Greece/Tourism Revenues: Tourism revenues in 2024 increased by 5.33% y-o-y to €21.7bn vs €20.593bn in 2023. December 2024 revenues up 33.43% to €435mn from €326mn in December 2023. Greece/Economy: BOG Governor Mr. Stournaras predicted that ECB will cut its interest rate to 2% by end 2025. Greece/Tourism Sector: Shipowner Mr. Prokopiou acquired 100% of the Astir Palace in Vouliagmeni as part of his investment strategy. According to the information available, Prokopiou acquired the remaining 70% of the Astir Palace in Vouliagmeni, from the Arab shareholders of the Jermyn Street Real Estate Fund. The Greek shipowner had already acquired 33% of the company in October 2023, from the Turkish group Dogus Group for approximately 150-200 million euros. Jumbo: The company announced that FY:24 sales augmented by 6%. BOD to propose to the EGM, to be held on March 19, an interim FY:24 gross dividend distribution of €0.4667/share (€63.499mn amount to be disbursed) or 0.4724 adjusted for 1,633,919 own shares (treasury stock acquired up to February 20 or 1.2% of share capital at a price range €1-€27.2/share). Ex-dividend date March 24. Dividend record date March 26. Dividend payment March 31. Interim DY at 1.7% based on yesterday’s closing. Intralot: The company’s USA subsidiary Intralot Inc signed a contract with the Charitable Gaming Division of the Nebraska Department of Revenue for the provision of a real-time monitoring and reporting system for Cash Devices across the state to enhance the oversight and operational efficiency of Cash Device regulation in Nebraska.
The contract, which was awarded following a competitive process, will run for 5 years and includes the option to renew for four (4) additional two-year (2) periods, totaling 13 years. INTRALOT’s system will oversee and report on Cash Device operations in a growing statewide landscape of at least 5,000 devices at more than 1,600 locations in Nebraska, improving security, compliance, and operational transparency. Further details regarding the financial impact on Intralot’s figures were not provided but it is a positive step forward to enahcne Intralot’s inc presence in the USA market. CNL Capital: FY:24 results on April 29. AGM May 28. Ex-dividend date June 3. Dividend record date June 4. Dividend payment Jun 10. H1:25 results September 29. Metlen (FY:24 review): Metlen held yesterday its FY:24 conference call with analysts providing update for the upcoming listing in LSE. In more details: § An extensive presentation of the company’s prospects and the large-scale investment program included in the company’s 3rd transformation (code-named Big 3) will be presented at the Capital Markets Day (CMD) which will be held in a special room after a relevant invitation at the London Stock Exchange around on 28th of April 2025. § The updated business plan will incorporate expansion strategies driven by both organic growth and strategic investments, including the recently announced alumina expansion project. Management stated that are closing two significant corporate actions (one in the EPC sector) poised to drive value creation surpassing €2bn generation in 2028 § Management forecasted a substantial increase in revenue for 2025, though specific figures were not disclosed. The CEO highlighted that the 2024 results reaffirmed the sustainability of EBITDA exceeding €1bn on a recurring basis. Management indicated plans to maintain capital expenditures (capex) at approximately €800 million, consistent with 2024 levels while net debt at the end of 2025 will be at lower ratio (i.e .2.2x) vs. 2024. § Metlen aims to dispose of at least 1GW of RES annually over the next two years, with potential to increase up to 2GW. In Greece, the company targets 2GW of installed capacity, with upside from battery storage. A major EPC renewables deal is expected at the CMD. With regards to energy market the company targets a 30% retail market share, opting for aggressive pricing over large-scale M&A to expand its retail business, explaining recent soft results, which are expected to persist. § LSE listing to conclude in early Q3:25; Extraordinary GM with 90% majority stake vote should approve the list. § Finally, Q1:25 is expected to keep the good pace of FY:24. The following table summarise results vs. estimates:
Bank of Piraeus (Results preview Q4:24): Piraeus will release its Q4/FY:24 figures on Monday before the opening while the bank will provide an updated business plan over 2025-2028. A conference call is scheduled the same day at 14:00 GR Time. We expect the group to deliver targets for FY:24 with net income exceeding €1bn despite various one-offs that burdened Q4:24. In more details: § Expectedly net interest income is seen lower by 2.4% reflecting ECB’s interest cuts; On the other hand, Fees are expected higher by 9,7%. OpEx is seen higher at €250m vs €208m in Q3:24 bringing PPI at €458m down 8.6% vs. Q3:24. § Note that Q4:24 is expected to burdened by various one offs related to a) School contribution -€25m b) VSS c) NPEs clean up while the bank may also increase various provisions to increase cash coverage. At end of Dec 2024 Piraeus Bank NPEs should be below the threshold of 3% with 62% coverage. § CoR will decrease further (0.35%) reflecting improving quality of loan portfolio. § Reported Net profit to shape at €187m €1,03bn on an annual basis. Following the management guidance, we expect shareholders remuneration to reach 0.29 eur/share with cash dividend no less than 0.17 eur/share. Piraeus Bank is trading 0.79x its T/BV and is included in our top pick list for 2025. Focus in the conference call in business plan update, credit expansion trends and scheduling of 70% stake of “Ethniki Asfalistiki” deal closing. The following table summarise our estimates:
Conference Call details: 24/02 14:00 GR-Time § GR: +30 210 94 60 800 or + 30 213 009 6000 § UK: + 44 (0) 203 059 5873 § USA: +1 516 447 5632 ¢ Buybacks
Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.
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