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Market Comment Profit taking dominated the market as considerable gains from previous weeks tempted investors to take some chips of the table. Banks have driven the market near 1,600 levels, while Athens International Airport benefited from its 2024 results announcements. Notably turnover on Monday was the highest of this month thanks to block trades (€69m out of €254m). General index closed at 1,603.96 points, shedding 0.88% from Friday’s 1,618.16 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 1.03%, ending at 3,926.46 points. The banks index declined 1.77%, as National parted with 2.98%, Alpha gave up 2.35%, Piraeus eased 1.62% and Eurobank slipped 0.40%, while Optima added 0.57%. AIA jumped 8.04% and Coca-Cola HBC fetched 2.04%, just as Lamda Development eased 2.72%. In total 24 stocks secured gains, 100 endured losses and 37 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €253.4m, up from last Friday’s €151.8m. We expect a volatile session as mixed vibes from abroad may increase cautiousness in domestic market despite the good set of FY:24 announcements. ¢ In the Spotlight Greece/CPI: CPI in January at 3.1% vs 2.5% in the EU area. Greece/Energy Market: The Greek government has officially opened an international call to tender for the concession of rights to explore and exploit hydrocarbons in the Ionian Sea, off western Greece. Chevron and HELLENiQ ENERGY have already expressed interest for the tender. Lamda Development: A block of shares representing 3.26% of the company’s share capital transferred yesterday (5.75mn shares) for a total consideration of €39.10mn (€6.8/share or at 3% discount). Seller was Voxcove Holdings, a JV of Mr. P. Germanos (owner of Olympia Group) and Mr. Katsos (of VNK Capital) at €6.8/share, a 3% discount of ASE price. Germanos Katsos remain with a 7.5% exposure in the company. Reportedly 2 foreign based funds acquired the stocks placed by Voxcove. Noval: FY:24 results on February 27 after market close. CC Details: February 28, 3pm local GR time. § GR: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 § UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 § INTL/UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5872 § USA: +1 516 447 5632 § WEB: https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/noval250228.html Bank of Cyprus: The bank will reinstate its share buy back program of up to €30mn till February 2026 by acquiring of up to 10% of share capital (44,619,993 shares) General Commercial: FY:24 results on March 28 after market close. AGM May 21. Ex-dividend date June 3. Dividend record date June 4. Dividend payment June 10. H1:25 results September 12. Metlen: H1:25 results out on April 24 than on May 8 initially announced. Capital Markets Day in London on April 28. OTE (FY:24 results preview): The company will report FY:24 results tomorrow before market opening. Nothing excited to opt for apart from a potential increase in cash dividend shareholders’’ remuneration should the company abolish or lower share buyback cancelation remuneration. Mobile will keep up the good pace of previous quarters, albeit at a slower ratio, Romania still ailing with marginal EBITDA contribution and Greece fixed retail facing intensifying competition with margin deterioration. Focus on any potential Romania development on mobile disposal, 2025 shareholders’ dividends and outlook on core business (Greek fixed) upon change of the domestic competition scenery (Nova sale). In more details: § Revenues seen up 3.1% to €3.1% to €3,575.5mn vs €3,468.9mn a year earlier. § EBITDA (AL) down 1.3% to €1,364.1mn vs €1,382.2mn § Net income up by mid single digit to €553.74mn against a reading of €531.7mn a year earlier. § We expect FY:24 dividend at €0.71/share, flat y-o-y. OTE trades FY:25 PE10.26x and EV/EBITDA 2024 at 4.84x. The following table summarise consensus estimates:
CC Details: Wednesday February 26, 1pm GR time • GR: + 30 210 9460 800 • UK/INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872 • USA: + 1 516 447 5632 • WEB: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/otegroup250226.html
Bank of Piraeus (Results review Q4:24): Piraeus posted a satisfactory set of Q4:24 results coming in line with our and consensus estimates. Expectedly the results frontloaded with various one-offs plus the educational levy of €25m. On a fiscal year basis Piraeus posted reported earnings €1,066m vs. €788m in FY:23 while on an adjusted basis Net profits came in at €1,238m vs. 1,047m a year ago. This is a 17.5% adj. RoTE well above guidance with 0.30 eur/share cash dividend which accounts for a 35% of reported earnings payout. More importantly Piraeus guided for continuous profitability above €1bn p.a. in the updated business plan of 2025-2028 with 50% cash payout to the shareholders. In more details: § Q4:24 normalized net profit came in at €336m. NPE ratio of 2.6%, CET1 of 14.7% (post 35% dividend accrual) and Total capital ratio of 19.9%. Performing loans increased by €3.6bn in 2024, exceeding latest guidance of €3.0bn. § Net interest income reached €514m, down 2.9% q-o-q and down 4.2% y-o-y, reflecting lower ECB rates and lower spreads. Commission Income reached €167m, exhibiting healthy growth of 7.1% q-o-q, courtesy of credit expansion and asset management fees. OpEx was up 9.3% q-o-q at €225m, with personnel expenses +13% q-o-q, reflecting higher performance-related variable pay and, higher G&A costs including costs related to Snappi C/I reached 33%. CoR dropped at 41bps, down 13bps q-o-q. Piraeus Bank booked €150m in inorganic impairments in the quarter, reflecting impairment charges for NPE and REO portfolios classified as HFS and charitable contribution for the construction of schools. § According to the bank’s management’s business plan data, Piraeus expects credit expansion to increase by 12 billion euros by 2028 with a “wake-up” of retail. § AGM on April 14 to approve cash dividend of €373m or 0.30 eur/share. § In other news Mr. Paulson placed yesterday 2.8% of the bank at €4.58/share for a total consideration of €160mn. Mr. Paulson now owns 14% of the bank. AGM on April 14. Q1:25 results on May 6. H1:25 results on July 31. 9m:25 results on October 31. Business Plan highlights:
Overall Piraeus delivered a strong set and promised a good follow up in the next four years. We believe that targets are feasible and leave room from surprises while promising a considerable high single digit of dividends each year. Remains a top pick. The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:
AIA (FY:24 results): AIA reported a very strong set of FY:24 performance by far beating consensus estimate for Fy:24 net profit of €215mn. Announced a combination of either cash or cash/scrip dividend shareholders’ remuneration with FY:24 DPS €0.78/share, again ahead of consensus estimate for €0.7/share (DY c.9%). In more details: § Total revenues & other income increased by 10.2% in 2024 to €665.5 million compared to €603.72 million 2023, a 10.2% y-o-y rise. Strong growth of 13.1% in passenger traffic plus successful commercial activity contributed to momentum across both Air and Non-Air activities. Air activities revenues, regulated by Air Activities ROE Cap of 15% accelerated 12.5% to €505.2mn from €448.9mn in 2023 representing 75.9% of total revenues. Non-air Activities Revenues were up 18.9% to €160.3mn vs €134.8mn accounting for 24.1% of consolidated revenues. § Reported EBITDA up 9.4% to €439.8mn vs €402.1mn in FY:23 with EBITDA margin settling at 66.1% vs 66.6% in 2023. § Adjusted EBITDA reached €424.8 million marking an increase of 15.7% compared to 2023 with Adjusted EBITDA margin at 63.8%. § Net Profit rose by €4.4 million to €235.9 million, marking an increase of 1.9% compared to €231.5 million in 2023. § FY:24 CAPEX at €33mn. Net Debt at €623.1 million corresponding to an Adjusted Net Debt / EBITDA of 1.5x. § Proposal to the AGM will be to distribute 100% of net profit of FY 2024 corresponding to a gross Dividend per share at ca. €0.78. DY in excess of 9%. AIA will propose to fore coming AGM, to be held on April 14, a .voluntary Scrip Dividend Program which will give AIA’s shareholders the option to reinvest a total dividend amount of up to €240 million in new shares during a four-year period. The maximum total amount that AIA’s shareholders may elect to reinvest in new shares under the proposed Scrip Dividend Program in 2025 is €100mn while the remaining €135.9 million dividend amount from 2024 net profit will be distributed in cash. § The company announced an acceleration of its Expansion Program gradually bringing 33 million annual passenger capacity earlier than planned, with the ultimate objective to reach capacity to serve 40 million passengers by 2032. The expansion will be partially funded with equity issuance for Air Activities investments. Such equity allows for return, consistent with our regulatory framework. Equity will be issued via a voluntary Scrip Dividend of up to €100 million from 2024 profits and up to another €140 million over the subsequent three years. § Total investment plan to reach 50mn pax capacity estimated at €1.28bn deployed through 2025-2032. Up to 50% is expected to be utilized until 2028 and the remaining amount until 2032. The investment plan will be financed mainly by debt (which to a large extent has been already secured) and partly by Air Activities Capital through the Scrip Dividend. § 2025 guidance calls for Net Debt to EBITDA in the range of 2.0x to 3.0x during the AEP investment cycle and not to exceed 3.5x. Passenger traffic during 2025 to grow in the mid-single digits (+5%) while, in the longer-term, growth to eventually converge to a low single digit long-term growth rate. Air Activities revenues for 2025 yield per passenger from Aeronautical Charges and ADF to be adjusted due to the depletion of the Carry Forward. Annual Air Activities profits will be aligned with 15% Return on Equity, which will benefit in line with the multi-year Air Activities Capital Increase Program through the Scrip Dividend. In the non-air activities revenue front, limited upside is seen to per passenger revenue due to the constraints in commercial space available. Car Parking revenues in 2025 will be modestly impacted by the construction of the MSP expected to commence within Q2, partially offset by targeted measures including additional open spaces in existing parking lot. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2025 to be impacted by c.100bps to below the 60%+medium term target due to the near-term utilization of the Carry Forward.
CC Details: Tuesday February 25th, 5:30pm GR Time § GR: + 30 213 009 6000 or + 30 210 946 0800 § UK: + 44 (0) 800 368 1063 § USA: + 1 516 447 5632 § INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872 § WEB: https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/athensinternational250225.html ¢ Buybacks
Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.
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