Beta Sec – Daily report 27.02.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

AthEx recovered the critical level of 1,600-points mark on Wednesday mainly thanks to the market’s largest stock, Coca-Cola HBC. After two days of losses, large caps edged forward – with banks following at a slower pace – while the majority of stocks ended up on the losing side. However, cautiousness was once again the main feature of the session as investors hesitate to take more decisive action on mixed signals from abroad.

• General index closed at 1,600.17 points, adding 0.24% to Tuesday’s 1,596.41 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.23%, ending at 3,916.25 points. The banks index inched 0.04% higher, as Optima grabbed 0.84%, National fetched 0.50% and Piraeus climbed 0.16%, while Alpha fell 0.83% and Eurobank eased 0.16%.

Sarantis improved 4.55%m CCHBC advanced 2.58% and OPAP augmented 2.29%, just as Public Power Corporation shrank 2.07%. In total 59 stocks recorded gains, 66 showed losses and 36 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €143.3m, down from Tuesday’s €365.8 m.

• Nvidia beat vs. tariffs: Investors may keep a waiting stance ahead of significant results announcements after the bell and before tomorrow’s opening. Therefore, we expect trends in European Exchanges to dominate the market and shape the day.

AthEx/FTSE: The shares of Terna Energy will be deleted from the AthEx indices, due to low free float, after the expiration of the acceptance period of the public offer by MASDAR HELLAS, and are replaced in the Large Cap by the shares of the company Aktor Group with a free float of 26% and a capping of 1.0. According to Athens Stock Exchange, the following changes will be made:

§   The shares of Terna Energy are removed from the composition of the General Index and replaced by the shares of the company AS Company with a free float of 36% and a capping factor of 1.0.

§   The shares of Terna Energy are removed from the composition of ATHEX ESG Index and replaced by the shares of Viokarpet with a weight factor of 18.7% and a capping factor of 1.0.

§   The shares of Terna Energy are removed from the composition of FTSE-25 and replaced by the shares of the company Aktor Group with a free float of 26% and a capping of 1.0.

§   The shares of Aktor Group are removed from Midcap and replaced by the shares of the company ALUMYL with a free float of 21%.

Greece/Budget Execution: Greece’s state budget primary surplus, based on final data, reached 758 million euros in January 2025, according to figures released on Tuesday by the finance ministry. The surplus is higher than the envisioned goal of 200 million euros that is included in the introductory report for the 2025 state budget for the specific period. The primary result, on a modified cash basis, reached a surplus of 1.98 billion euros, up from a goal of 1.4 billion euros and a primary surplus of 2.282 billion euros for the same period of 2024. The level of net revenues of the state budget in January 2025 reached 5.991 billion euros, down 106 million euros (1.74%) compared to the goal in the state budget for the ongoing year.

Greece/Accommodation Revenues: Rhodes, in the southeastern Aegean, and the Lasithi region in eastern Crete led Greece in tourism revenue growth last year, while the popular Cycladic islands of Santorini and Mykonos saw notable declines, according to official figures released on Wednesday. The data also showed a significant annual increase in accommodation revenue, while growth in the food service sector was much more modest. According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), revenue in the accommodation sector rose by 9.2% year-on-year, reaching €11 billion, up from €10.1 billion in 2023. In contrast, food service revenue grew by just 2.4%, falling short of the year’s 2.7% inflation rate. The sector’s total earnings amounted to €9.9 billion, ELSTAT reported.

Overall, the two tourism-dependent sectors saw a combined revenue increase of 5.8% year-on-year, reaching €21.1 billion, compared to just under €20 billion in 2023. Rhodes recorded the highest annual growth in accommodation and food service revenues combined, with a 22.6% increase, followed by Lasithi with a 12.9% rise.

Meanwhile, Santorini and Mykonos, both highly saturated tourist destinations, experienced annual revenue declines of 9% and 7.6%, respectively.

Ideal Holdings: FY:24 results today after market close. CC on March 5 at 5pm local GR time.

Orilina Properties: FY:24 results on April 10. AGM on September 8. Ex-dividend date September 11. Dividend record date September 12. Dividend payment September 18. H1:25 results September 29. 

Terna Energy: Masdar during the render offer period acquired a 7.32% stake (8,663,877 shares) while it purchased 23,148,484 shares (19.56% stake) from the market reaching a total of 115,170,191 shares or 97.31% stake. Masdar will exercise its squeeze out right and delist TE from the ASE. 

OTE (FY:24 results review): OTE reported a broadly in-line set of FY:24 results in terms of sales and EBITDA but far than more missed consensus net income profitability on a particularly weak Q4:24 net income figure courtesy of higher depreciation and leasing expenses and one off provisions related to VRS program and Romania mobile one off tax charges of €33.5mn (2017-2021 tax audit completion). In more details:

§   FY:24 revenues up 3.5% yoy to €2,590.8mn vs €3,468.9mn in FY:23 and in line with market expectation for €3,575,5mn. Q4’24 revenues were down 2.7% to €905.3mn, primarily due to a substantial decline in low margin international wholesale revenues in Greece and continued pressure on Romanian operations. Revenues from Greek operations were down 1.4%, as growth momentum in Mobile, TV, and ICT services was offset by a seasonal drop in international wholesale. In Romania, revenues declined by 17.4% in a highly competitive market, partly reflecting the impact of mobile termination rate (MTR) cuts and ICT related revenues in the comparable quarter of 2023.

§   FY:24 Reported Adjusted EBITDA (AL) at €1,347.3mn vs €1,342.5mn on Adjusted EBITDA (AL) margin down by 1.2% to 37.5% vs 38.7%.

§   FY:24 EBITDA (AL) -3.5% y-o-y to €1,347.3mn vs €1,382.2mn in 2023 and consensus of €1,359mn. Group Q4:24 Adjusted EBITDA (AL) stood at €344.5mn up 1.0%, driven by 1.8% growth acceleration in Greek operations. The Group’s EBITDA (AL) margin increased to 38.1% in the quarter, compared to 36.7% in the same period last year.

§   FY:24 Reported net income at €478.8mn vs €531.7mn, a -9.9% retreat yoy as a one off tax audit charge for Romania (2017-2021 period) was booked (€33.5mn) and other one offs all totaling €89.8mn burden and again mainly involving the Romanian subsidiary.

§   On an adjusted basis, net income landed 6.8% higher to €600.8mn against €562.7mn in 2023.

§   FY:24 CAPEX at €599.7mn, FY:24 FCF €444.2mn

§   FY:24 net debt €643mn, Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA (AL) ratio 0.5x. No debt expiration in 2025, bond of €500mn expiring in 2026 and another €200mn in 2028. EBRD loan €150mn expiration in 2030.

§   FTTH availability 1.7m homes by end 2024 to reach 2.1mn by end 2025 and 3mn by end 2027 totaling a CAPEX of €3bn.

§   FY:25 guidance: FCF generation at €460mn including TKRM in Romania, lower than anticipated €470-€490mn range. Should Romania be sold, not earlier than end H1:25 FCF will be adjusted accordingly (plus €100mn due to tax benefit) and so as shareholders’ remuneration. CAPEX €610-€620mn mainly related to domestic (Greece) FTTH expansion. Adj. EBITDA (AL) 2025 growth +2%. Out of the 2025 estimated €460mn FCF generation OTE intends to distribute €451m to shareholders as total remuneration (expectation was for a rise of the amount to €475mn) out of which €298mn will be the cash distribution (€0.7216/share vs €0.71/share in 2023, FCF payout to 98% in 2025 from 95% in 2023, DY 4.9%) and €153mn will be directed to share buyback and cancellation. In case TKRM disposal to Digi Romania S.A and Vodafone Romania S.A concludes successfully, within 2025 and depending on the outcome, the proposed amount for shareholder remuneration will be adjusted accordingly, to reflect the real impact on OTE Group Free Cash Flow. In the CC, CEO sounded optimistic for the completion of the sale by year-end 2025.

Overall a set that will not please operationally wise the market while on the dividend front Romania sale prerequisite for a shrareholders’ remuneration step up. Domestic operating environment tought with increased competition and potential operational margin squeeze adds to uncertainty and renders stock’s performance vague. FY:25 PE 10x, FY:24 EV/EBITDA 4.72x. Cheap but with lack of growth catalysts ahead. With CF generation over €450mn ahead, it should be considered as a dividend play story.

The following table summarise results vs. consensus estimates:

ΟΤΕ	2023	2024	Y-o-Y	2024 Est.	Act. vs	2023	2024	Y-o-Y	2024 Est.	Act. vs
EUR m.	FY	FY	(%)	FY	Est.	Q4	Q4	(%)	Q4	Est.
Sales	3,468.9	3,590.8	3.5%	3,575.5	0.4%	930.2	905.3	-2.7%	890.0	1.7%
EBITDA	1,382.2	1,371.7	-0.8%	1,359.0	0.9%	351.7	362.5	3.1%	349.8	3.6%
EBITDA Mrg	39.8%	38.2%	-165 bps	38.0%	+19 bps	37.8%	40.0%	+223 bps	39.3%	+74 bps
Net Income	531.7	478.8	-9.9%	553.75	-13.5%	134.5	64.5	-52.0%	139.5	-53.7%
Net Mrg	15.3%	13.3%	-199 bps	15.5%	-215 bps	14.5%	7.1%	-733 bps	15.7%	-854 bps

Eurobank (Q4:24 results preview): Eurobank will announce Q4:24 results today after the end of the session with a conference call scheduled at 18:00 the same day. We expect a strong quarter on the back of full consolidation of Hellenic Bank and a net profit of €351m in the quarter. In more details:

§   NII is expected to reflect ECB benchmark drop, we forecast 3% lower related revenues while fees are expected 6.7% on credit expansion and electronic transactions. All in we expect PPI to reach €549m down 9.3%.

§   With regards to credit growth, we pencil in €1.5bn expansion of the loan book, building on the robust credit growth in the system in Q3/Q4:24. Post-HB’s full consolidation, net loans for the quarter are reported at €50.6bn. NPEs to remain flat at 2.9% on zero formation with 90% cash coverage.

§   DPS to reach 0.19 eur/share while Eurobank may also announce a new buyback.

§   Note that Hellenic Bank posted net earnings of €383m in FY:24, with NII of €599m (12% y-o-y), net credit expansion of €1.05bn and NPEs of 2.4%/63$ cash coverage. Hellenic has the lowest L/D ratio of just 36%. Eurobank stake at 93.5%. The bank will tender the remaining free float by the end of H1:25.

§   In the conference call all eyes on 2025-2027 business plan and guidance for major revenue and cost trends. We also look for comments on the completion of the CNP Cyprus Insurance Holdings acquisition.

Eurobank trades 1.09x its TBV reflecting resilient performance vs. peers and low NPEs exposure. Eurobank’s income is generated by c30% from Bulgaria and Cyprus operations.

The following table summarise our estimates:

Eurobank	Act.	Act.	Est.	Overview
(In Million Euro)	4Q23	3Q24	4Q24	QoQ	YoY
NII	572.8	697.7	677.0	-3.0%	18.2%
Fee income	140.8	167.8	179.0	6.7%	27.2%
Trading	77.6	35.4	17.0	-51.9%	-78.1%
Other Income	-22	-9	-4	57.3%	81.9%
Total income	769.0	891.4	869.0	-2.5%	13.0%
Operating costs	-229.1	-286.0	-320.0	11.9%	39.7%
Pre-provision-profits	539.9	605.4	549.0	-9.3%	1.7%
Core PPI	484.4	579.4	536.0	-7.5%	10.6%
Provisions	-90.0	-85.3	-90.0	5.5%	0.0%
Other results	-12	66	-3	-104.5%	75.0%
PBT	437.9	586.3	456.0	-22.2%	4.1%
Corporate taxes	98	127	100	-21.1%	1.9%
Net profit	339.8	459.6	356.0	-22.5%	4.8%
Discontinued operations	-180	-11	-5
Net profit	159.8	449.0	351.0	-21.8%	119.6%
Minorities	0	35	5
Attributable net profit	159.8	413.6	346.0	-16.3%	116.5%

CC Details: Thursday February 27, 18:00 GR-Time

•              GR:          + 30 213 009 6000

•              UK/INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

•              USA:        + 1 516 447 5632

Helleniq Energy (FY:24 results preview): Helleniq Energy is set to announce its Q4/FY:24 results today after market hours. A conference call is scheduled at 18:00 GR-Time to discuss results. Consensus expects a solid quarter on higher refinery output albeit lower international margins. Adjusted Net income is expected at €40m excluding one-off compensation from third party operation disruption.

§   In Q4:24 group adjusted EBITDA is seen at €184m, down 31.6% y-o-y on the back of softer refining margins after a relatively prolonged strong season. Marketing is expected higher as increased demand for heating oil affected volumes while on the flip side petchems had a slow period in terms of volumes and profitability.  Adjusted net income should come in at €40m, down 64% y-o-y. On reported level we expect inventory losses of €20m, therefore reported EBITDA should reach €164m, up 11.6% y-o-y while net income should shape at €34m from €13m in Q4:3.

§   Note that on a fiscal year basis consensus expects reported net profits of €325m down 46.4% vs. FY:23 which includes the one off of €164m Social Contribution Tax.

§   Ordinary dividend for FY:24 should reach 0.50 eur/share (including the €0.20 interim dividend already paid in January.) Note that the group has said that will distribute extraordinary dividend from DEPA Commercial proceeds which could add another €0.25 approximately.

In the conference call we expect updates for RES deployment, oil exploration and outlook for the year. Helleniq Energy trades 5x its FY:24 EBITDA.

The following table summarise consensus estimates:

Hellenic Petroleum	2023	2024	Y-o-Y	2023	2024	Y-o-Y
EUR mn.	FY	FY Est.	(%)	4Q	4Q Est.	(%)
Refining Volumes (MTx1000)	15,438	16,403	6.3%	3,956	4,250	7.4%
Marketing Volumes (MTx1000)	5,888	6,158	4.6%	1,441	1,580	9.6%
Petchems Volumes (MTx1000)	276	257	-6.9%	66	58	-12.1%
Power Volume Generated (GWh) – RES	658	704	7.0%	151	178	17.9%
Sales	12,803	12,894	0.7%	3,304	3,150	-4.7%
Refining Supply & Trading	1,043.0	720.0	-31.0%	236	157	-33.5%
Petchem	43.0	55.0	27.9%	8	4	-50.0%
Domestic Marketing	40.0	57.0	42.5%	-2	4	300.0%
International Marketing	71.0	69.0	-2.8%	14	12	-14.3%
RES	42.0	46.0	9.5%	8	10	25.0%
Other	-2.0	-12.0	-500.0%	5	-3	-160.0%
Adjusted EBITDA	1,237	937	-24.3%	269	184	-31.6%
EBITDA	1,052	786	-25.3%	147	164	11.6%
Adjusted Net Income	607.0	325.5	-46.4%	111	40	-64.4%
Net Income	475	45	-90.6%	13	34	159.2%

CC Details: Thursday February 27, 18:00 GR-Time

•              GR:          + 30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 9460 800

•              UK/INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

•              USA:        + 1 516 447 5632

•              WEB:       https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/helleniqenergy250227.html

NBG (Q4:24 results preview): NBG will announce Q4:24 results tomorrow before the opening of the session with a conference call scheduled later at 12:00 GR-Time. We are looking for reported net profit of €176m in Q4:24 as the group is expected to book one offs in the tune of more than €110m. One offs include VES provision, “Lepete charges”, placement costs and school donations. In more details:

§   NII is expected to follow trends and decrease by 3.6% q-o-q. On the other hand Fees are seen higher by 4.11% q-o-q. OpEx is seen higher by 14% on the back of VES €65m one-off). Underlying LLPs to remain flattish at €48m yet other impairments and one off charges may burden by €140m results. All in we should be looking for €176m or €282m adjusted net profit.

§   Excluding one-offs ROTE should reach 14.5% in Q4:24 and 17% in 2024, in line with guidance for full year 2024 ROTE of >16%.

§   We expect net credit flows of €1.5bn in 2024 and performing loans to reach €35.1bn at end 2024 exceeding net loan book target by €1.5bn. NPEs marginally down at 3.2% with 90% cash coverage.

§   On our estimates NBG is forecasted to distribute cash dividend of 0.7 eur/share (DY:24 8%)

§   In the conference call we focus on the updated three-year FY:25 – FY:27 business plan, credit expansion targets and shareholder remuneration.

NBG trades 1.0x its TBV and has the best in class CET (18.4%) with strong capital generation capacity. Excess capital level provide flexibility in non-organic growth an option that NBG could visit in the near future.

The following table summarise our estimates:

NBG	Act.	Act.	Est.	Overview
(In Million Euro)	4Q23	3Q24	4Q24	QoQ	YoY
NII	623	589	568	-3.6%	-8.9%
Fee income	109	108	112	4.1%	2.7%
Trading Income	6	12	10	-17.4%	72.4%
Insurance/Other Income	24	6	12	114.3%	-50.6%
Total income	762.4	714.6	702.0	-1.8%	-7.9%
Operating costs	-234	-217	-248	14.1%	6.1%
Pre-provision-profits	528.7	497.3	454.0	-8.7%	-14.1%
Core PPI	498.6	479.6	432.0	-9.9%	-13.4%
Provisions	-47	-44	-48	8.1%	-1.3%
Other results	-19	-7	-140	-1844.4%	-648.7%
PBT	462.6	445.7	266.0	-40.3%	-42.5%
Corporate taxes	88	91	80	-11.9%	-9.1%
Net profit (continued)	375	355	186	-47.6%	-50.3%
Discontinued operations	-60	-39	-9
Net profit	315	316	177	-43.9%	-43.7%
Minorities	1	1	1
Attributable net profit	314	315	176	-44.0%	-43.9%

CC Details: Friday February 28, 10:30 GR-Time

§   GR:          + 30 213 009 6000

§   UK/INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA:        + 1 516 447 5632

§   WEB        https://hdg.choruscall.com/?$aD10cnVlJnBhc3Njb2RlPTgwMjcxMzI2JmluZm89Y29tcGFueSZyPXRydWU=

Alpha Bank (Q4:24 results preview): Alpha Bank will announce Q4:24 results tomorrow before the opening of the session with a conference call scheduled later at 12:00 GR-Time. Alpha is expected to frontload losses in Q4:24 increasing provisions and other one-offs. In more details:

§   We forecast Q4:24 net interest income to reach €406m, reflecting a -1% decline q-o-q and -7.4% y-o-y decline. Fee income is expected at €107m (-1.6% q-o-q, +7.8% y-o-y).

§   We forecast operating expenses €223m (+6% q-o-q, +18% y-o-y), while loan loss provisions (LLPs) are set to accelerate to €70m (+31% q-o-q, -22% y-o-y). Additionally, we factor in an NPA transaction loss of €50m.

§   All in net profit should settle at €112.9m (-32% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y) for Q4:24. On a full year basis we expect Alpha to post reported net profit of €600.8m

§   NPE ratio will further de-escalate courtesy of the NPA transaction with higher cash coverage, which is expected to decline to 3.8% in 2024 from 6.0% in 2023. Net loans should reach €37.6bn at end-Dec ’24, with net lending flows of c€2.2bn in 2024.

§   Finally, we project shareholder cash remuneration to accelerate to €0.06/share for FY:24, compared to DPS of 0.026 eur/share in 2023, translating to a gross yield of 3.2%.

§   Focus in the conference call in the three-year business plan targets, loan growth, CoR and shareholders’ remuneration.

§   Alpha Bank trades 0.64x its TBV and is our top pick in terms of market valuation and upside potential.

The following table summarise our estimates:

Alpha Bank	Act.	Act.	Est.	Overview
(In Million Euro)	4Q23	3Q24	4Q24	QoQ	YoY
NII	438.7	410.0	406.0	-1.0%	-7.4%
Fee income	99.2	108.8	107.0	-1.6%	7.8%
Trading	20.6	17.6	20.0	13.3%	-2.9%
Other Income	9.7	9.6	15.0	56.5%	54.7%
Total income	568.2	546.0	548.0	0.4%	-3.6%
Operating costs	-189.1	-210.7	-223.0	5.8%	17.9%
Pre-provision-profits	379.1	335.3	325.0	-3.1%	-14.3%
Core PPI	348.8	308.0	290.0	-5.9%	-16.9%
Provisions	-90.0	-53.1	-70.0	31.9%	22.2%
Other results	-13.5	3.0	-50.0	-1746.0%	-270.4%
PBT	275.6	285.2	205.0	-28.1%	-25.6%
Corporate taxes	79.4	84.9	60.0	-29.3%	-24.4%
Net profit (continued)	196	200	145	-27.6%	-26.1%
Discontinued operations	-75.5	-33.6	-31.0
Net profit	120.7	166.7	114.0	-31.6%	-5.6%
Minorities	0.0	0.1	1.1
Attributable net profit	120.7	166.6	112.9	-32.2%	-6.5%

CC Details: Friday February 28 12:00 GR-Time

§   GR:          + 30 213 009 6000

§   UK/INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA:        + 1 516 447 5632

§   WEB        https://hdg.choruscall.com/?$aD10cnVlJnBhc3Njb2RlPTkxNDcxMzExJmluZm89Y29tcGFueSZyPXRydWU=

¢     Buybacks

Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.