Beta Sec – Daily report 10.04.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

AthEx took another nosedive on Wednesday, after Tuesday’s rebound, in an environment of complete volatility dominated by the soaring of Chinese counter-tariffs on US imports, to 84%. Clearly focus is exclusively on trade war developments anything else is on the background of interest.

General index closed at 1,528.34 points, shedding 2.69% from Tuesday’s 1,570.53 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 2.78%, ending at 3,755.66 points.  The banks index conceded 3.14%, as Piraeus tumbled 5.04%, Alpha 4.78%, National 2.86% and Eurobank 1.70%, while Optima advanced 4.17%. Viohalco parted with 6.18% and Titan Cement lost 5.99%. In total 22 stocks boasted gains, 114 posted losses and 25 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 257.2 million euros, down from Tuesday’s €304.2m.

From Crisis to Celebration: Fears about a looming financial crisis gave way to historic stock market gains after President Donald Trump reversed course on the bulk of his tariffs, at least for 90 days.

¢     In the Spotlight

Banking Sector: DBRS Morningstar upgraded the credit ratings of both National Bank of Greece and Eurobank from BBB (low) to BBB, citing improved profitability, asset quality, and capital strength. NBG’s upgrade came with a stable outlook, supported by strong liquidity and domestic market leadership, though limited diversification and high DTCs remain concerns. Eurobank’s rating was also lifted, with a more optimistic positive outlook, reflecting its resilience post-Hellenic Bank acquisition, expected income diversification, and stable asset quality supported by solid NPE coverage and loan book growth.

Autohellas: The company trades today ex FY:24 gross dividend €0.85/share, net €0.8075/share. Payment on April 16.

Prodea: FY:24 results on April 11. AGM June 11. Ex-dividend date June 16. Dividend record date June 17. Dividend payment June 20.

Sarantis: Mr. G Sarantis bought on April 7 10K shares at €11.9/share. Mrs. A. Saranti bought on the same date 4.2K shares at €12.01/share and on April 8 1,086 shares at €11.90/share.

Optima Bank: FY:24 ex-dividend date June 23. Dividend record date June 24, dividend payment June 27. 

Papoutsanis (Q1:25 trading update): Q1:25 sales up 21% to €17.2mn vs €14.2mn in 2024 with exports accounting for 61% of the figure. Company projects FY:25 sales to increase in double digit. Branded products were up 26%, hotel up 34%, PL up 21% and industrial soap noodles up 5%. Growth rates are above our forecast for FY:25 sales growth of 8.7% to €72mn vs €66.2mn in FY:24. We will upgrade our estimate and revert with an update.

Premia Properties: Management noted in an analyst presentation that the company is considering a share capital increase of up to €40m that could take place even within H1:25. The company’s demanding investment plan is already estimated to reach €50m in 2025, and potentially more if the company moves forward with a share capital increase. During the first two months of the year, investments amounted to €17m, indicating the aggressive stance of the company in order to achieve its target of creating a portfolio of €1bn in the next 3-5 years (from c. €500m at the end of 2024). Finally, guidance for FY25 rental income is estimated by management between €34-35m.

Interlife: The company released 2024 solvency report, showing improved performance compared to 2023 and solid capital ratios.   Written premiums reached €100.35mn (+7.0% y-o-y). Gross earned premium amounted to €98.98m (+11.45% y-o-y), EBT amounted to €14.77m, reduced compared to €17.29mn in 2023 due to lower investment income.

Alter Ego Media (FY:24 results): Net debt at €4.5m (pro-forma for IPO proceeds Group is net cash c50m including leases) . Dividend proposal of 0.10 eur/share with scrip option for three years and up to €30m. AGM on June 17. H1:25 results on September 25.

Quest Holdings (FY:24 results review): Quest reported yesterday 2024 results exceeding our estimates across all lines of P&L courtesy of stronger than we expected performance in the commercial sector, both in sales and profitability, figures, in line performance of the courier segment, persistently strong IT business and superior performance of the energy segment. FY:24 dividend already preannounced at €0.3/share (DY 5.4%). In more details:

§   Sales grew by 10.8% to €1.325bn vs €1.196bn in 2023, +2.6% higher than our call of €1.291bn.

§   EBITDA was up by 8.7% to €91.8mn vs €84.4mn in 2023 and our estimate of €89.6mn, positive 2.4% delta.

§   EBT accelerated by 10.3% to €64.984mn vs €58.910mn in 2023, assisted by the €2.2mn derivative valuation related to ACS sale.

§   Net income landed 9.6% higher yoy to €49.113mn vs €44.797mn in 2023 and our guess of €

§   Profits recorded related to the sale 47.47mn.of 20% of ACS shares, amounting to €77 million, were recorded directly in the Group’s equity, in accordance with IFRS 10. A small portion out of this amount equal to €2.2 million, is included in the consolidated 2024 EBT recognized as profits from the derivative valuation arising from this agreement, in line with IFRS provisions.

§   The company turned net cash €82.1mn vs €17mn net debt in 2023 following the receipt of €77mn regarding the initial sale of 20% stake in ACS.

§   CAPEX at €20.954mn vs €26.714mn in 2023.

§   In the commercial activity sales grew by 11.3% , followed by an EBT increase of 6.1% on a YoY basis. Lower pace of profitability increase is mainly driven by squeezed Gross Margins in the Apple Ecosystem, lower contribution of Clima sales, following the termination of last year’s subsidies program, and higher financing costs due to high Euribor and elevated WC needs  required for the expansion in the Romanian market.

§   In the IT segment (Unisystems), Sales augmented at a double-digit pace +12.7%, and EBT by 9.4%. Demand for IT services remains strong, driven by the high number of digital transformation projects of the private and public sector. 46% of sales stem from international activities.

§   In postal services (ACS), sales increased by 5.1%, followed by an EBT increase of 8.1%. Growth is primarily driven by the rate of expansion of e-commerce, although at a slower than expected pace during 2024 with CS capturing higher M/S in the domestic market.

§   In the renewable energy generation sales were mildly higher YoY by 6.6% , while EBT increased by 11.5% .

§   Acquisition of Benroubi (70% stake for €27.2mn) concluded in end January. Another 30% call option in place till 2027.

§   The sale and transfer to GLS of 20% of the shares of its subsidiary ACS, for a consideration of €77 mn The agreement provides the option to GLS to acquire the remaining 80% of ACS shares over the next 2 years at a minimum consideration of €296mn.

FY:25 outlook: For the commercial activity Quest expects growth in sales and double digit growth in EBT. IT services will remain strong with growth across all lines driven by robust demand of IT services both in Greece and internationally. Backlog at €550mn secures 2 year uninterrupted operations. In the postal services growth similar to 2024 expected in 2025 while energy sector will push ahead at similar growth rates to 2024. All in Quest predicts mild (mid single digit in our understanding) growth in top line for 2025, higher growth rate for EBITDA (to exceed €100mn) and similar to EBITDA growth rate in the EBT level.

CC Details: Thursday April 10 at 3.30 Athens GR time

§   Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/quest250410.html

§   GR: + 30 213 009 6000 or + 30 210 94 60 800

§   UK & INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA: + 1 516 447 5632

Fourlis (FY:24 results CC highlights): Fourlis will provide FY:25 guidance on its AGM. CAPEX for 2025 at €25mn related to IKEA stores and Intersport and Foot Locker expansion. Company’s targets of longer term €750mn sales with an EBIT margin of 8% reaffirmed. New share buyback program to kick in in June following relative decision from the upcoming AGM.  

Other Results FY:24:

Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.