Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.65% at 1,727.32 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.66%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.86%, Banks Index: +1.34%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 141.6m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 129.0m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, with banks and Titan in focus.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek FinMin sees improved Greek sovereign debt profile
· Titan Group 1Q25 Results out- in line at EBITDA line, Bottom line miss; EUR 3.0 DPS; Positive outlook for 2025e
· Eurobank Holdings 1Q25 results Preview | A soft quarter
· National Bank of Greece 1Q25 results Preview | Higher bottom line q-o-q
· Alpha Services & Holdings 1Q25 results Preview | Net profit to accelerate q-o-q
· Alpha Services and Holdings stock options
· Eurobank Holdings commencement of Share Buyback Programme
· Jumbo sales Update April 2025
· METLEN AGM on 3rd June
· QUALCO’s IPO almost fully subscribed – press
Macro Headlines
Greek FinMin sees improved Greek sovereign debt profile
According to Capital.gr, the Greek FinMin said yesterday that Greece has improved its Sovereign Debt Profile, especially from 2032 onwards, following the early repayments of the IMF loans and also the first bailout loans from the EU states totalling EUR 31.6 bn by 2031, avoiding the increase of the debt service cost from 2032 onwards.
Company Headlines
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 40.80 | TP EUR 50.50
Titan Group 1Q25 Results out- in line at EBITDA line, Bottom line miss; EUR 3.0 DPS; Positive outlook for 2025e
Titan Cement reported earlier 1Q25 Revenue of EUR 638m, up by 2.4% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 122.6m (Optima at EUR 124n, Consensus at EUR 114.2m), up by 11.7% y-o-y and Net Profits at EUR 43.7m, down by 16.6% y-o-y on increased financial expenses, depreciation and minorities, while Net Debt/EBITDA dropped to 0.5x, strengthened by the US listing proceeds. The Company will hold a conference call also on Thursday (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). The company has already declared an EUR 3.00/share dividend (DY: 7.4%, ex-date: 30 June).
Titan Cement 1Q25 Results Review
|
EUR m |
1Q24 |
1Q25 |
y-o-y change |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Actual vs. Consensus |
|
Turnover |
623.7 |
638.4 |
2.4% |
630.7 |
1.2% |
628.0 |
1.7% |
|
EBITDA |
109.8 |
122.6 |
11.7% |
124.0 |
-1.1% |
114.2 |
7.4% |
|
EBITDA margin |
17.60% |
19.20% |
160 |
19.66% |
46 |
|
|
|
Net income (adj.) |
52.4 |
43.7 |
-16.6% |
53.1 |
-17.7% |
51.0 |
-14.3% |
Source: Optima, Titan Cement
Consensus is based on 13 Covering Analysts
EUROBANK HOLDINGS | 1Q25 results Preview
CP: EUR 2.4490, Rating: Buy, TP: EUR 3.00
A soft quarter
1Q25 results | Eurobank Holdings is scheduled to report 1Q25 results today, post-market close and management will host a conference call on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time.
Optima View | We expect a soft quarter on a sequential basis on the back of lower core income (NII, fees) and one-off costs. We also anticipate that investors will focus on the management’s outlook for the rest of the year and especially on the evolution of net credit expansion of the group (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria), time deposits mix and cost, NII, fees and CoR. The stock is trading 1.0x P/TBV25E, at 11% discount to European banks, which is not justified by its higher RoaTBV (14.9% vs. 13.2% of EU banks). We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 3.00/share, implying 24% upside potential.
Bottom line | We forecast reported net profit to reach EUR 292.6m (-7% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y), assuming one-off costs of EUR 30.0m. Excluding one-off costs, we estimate that adjusted net profit will shape at EUR 322.6m (-5% q-o-q, -16% y-o-y), 4% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 335.0m, on higher one-off costs.
Top line | We estimate that NII will stand at EUR 627.0m (-7% q-o-q, +10% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 631.0m, on the back of lower base rates and seasonality (1Q is historically weak). Moreover, we also expect fee income to reach EUR 167.8m (-22% q-o-q, +24% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 170.0m. Recall that the sequential drop in fees is attributed to a one-off fee of EUR 30.0m in 4Q as well as to the negative impact on transaction fees, following the government initiatives announced in December 2024. Hence, we expect core income to reach EUR 794.8m (-11% q-o-q, +12% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 799.6m and non-recurring revenues of EUR 15.0m, in line with consensus estimate.
Costs | On the cost side, we expect OpEx to stand at EUR 307.6m (-3% q-o-q, +34% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 305.0m. Finally, we forecast LLPs to shape at EUR 77.1m (-15% q-o-q, +9% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 77.1m.
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | 1Q25 results Preview
CP: EUR 9.45, Rating: Buy, TP: EUR 10.92
Higher bottom line q-o-q
1Q25 results | National Bank of Greece is scheduled to report 1Q25 results today, post-market close and management will host a conference call on the same day at 19:00 Athens/17:00 London Time.
Optima View | We expect a good quarter, driven by elevated trading gains, lower OpEx and loan loss provisions and Core PAT to be in line with FY guidance. Nonetheless, reported net profit will be burdened by recycling one-offs. We also expect net credit expansion to be strong, deposits to be lower q-o-q, in line with system trends as well as asset quality dynamics to remain favourable. We expect that investors will focus on the management’s outlook for the rest of the year and especially on the evolution of net credit expansion, time deposits mix and cost, NII, fees, CoR and excess capital. The stock is trading 1.07x P/TBV25E, at 9% discount to European banks, which is not justified by its higher RoaTBV (13.9% vs. 13.3% of EU banks). We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 10.92/share, implying 14% upside potential.
Bottom line | We project reported net profit to reach EUR 292.8m (+69% q-o-q, -18% y-o-y) in 1Q25, 7% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 315.2m, on higher one-off costs. The sequential improvement is attributed to higher trading gains, lower OpEx, LLPs and one-offs. Recall that 4Q24 results were burdened by one-off costs of EUR 185.7m. Excluding the one-off costs, we forecast normalized net profit to shape at EUR 362.8m (+1% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y), 11% higher than consensus estimate of EUR 327.7m, on higher trading gains.
Top line | We estimate that NII will land at EUR 544.4m (-5% q-o-q, -10% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 546.5m, on the back of lower base rates and seasonality (1Q is historically weak). In the same vein, we also anticipate fee income to shape at EUR 102.0m (-11% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 103.0m, owing to the negative impact on transaction fees, following the government initiatives announced in December 2024. Thus, we expect core income to reach EUR 646.4m (-6% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 649.5m and non-recurring revenues to elevate to EUR 92.5m from EUR 22.0m in 4Q24 and higher than consensus estimate of EUR 60.0m.
Costs | On the cost side, we expect OpEx to land at EUR 230.0m (-6% q-o-q, +9% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 228.7m. Finally, we expect LLPs and other impairments to shape at EUR 45.0m (-29% q-o-q, -18% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 47.0m.
ALPHA SERVICES & HOLDINGS | 1Q25 results Preview
CP: EUR 2.286, Rating: Buy, TP: EUR 2.75
Net profit to accelerate q-o-q
1Q25 results | Alpha Services & Holdings is scheduled to report 1Q25 results on Friday 09 May at 08:00 Athens/06:00 London Time and management will host a conference call on the same day at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time.
Optima View | We expect a sequential improvement on profitability, due to lower OpEx, the de-escalation of cost of risk and the lack of one-offs. We also anticipate net credit expansion and deposits to follow system trends as well as asset quality dynamics to remain benign. On top of that, we expect investors to focus on the evolution of certain KPIs (NCE, NII, fee income, cost of risk) in the coming quarters as well as on the recent acquisitions of Astrobank in Cyprus and Axia Ventures in Greece. The stock is trading 0.69x P/TBV25e, at a material discount of 40% to European banks and 26% discount to its Greek peers. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.75/share, implying ca26% upside potential. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector.
Bottom line | We estimate net profit to shape at EUR 193.1m (+17% q-o-q, -9% y-o-y) in 1Q25, in line with consensus estimate of EUR 196.0m. The sequential improvement is attributed to lower OpEx and LLPs as well as to the scarce of one-offs. Recall that 4Q24 results were burdened by EUR 23.9m one-off costs.
Top line | We estimate NII to reach EUR 390.3m (-4% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 393.0m, on the back of lower base rates, seasonality (1Q is historically weak) and 2 less calendar days that have a negative impact of EUR 10.0m. In the same vein, we also anticipate fee income to shape at EUR 105.0m (-8% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 104.0m owing to seasonality and a negative impact of EUR 5.0m (annual impact at EUR 20.0m) due to lower transaction fees, following the government initiatives announced in December 2024. Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 495.3m (-5% q-o-q, -5% y-o-y) and non-recurring revenues at EUR 36.3m (-37% q-o-q, -2% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 36.0m. All in all, we forecast revenues of EUR 531.5m (-8% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 529.0m.
Costs | On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 215.5m (-10% q-o-q, +6% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 214.0m and the cost/income ratio to decelerate to 40.5% vs. 41.4% in 4Q24. Finally, we project loan loss provisions to stand at EUR 50.2m (-21% q-o-q, -26% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 52.0m, factoring a cost of risk of 52bps, broadly in line with guidance of 50bps.
Alpha Services and Holdings stock options
Alpha announced that it awarded 5,745,429 own shares to 1,177 beneficiaries at EUR 2.0646/share.
Eurobank Holdings commencement of Share Buyback Programme
Eurobank announced that the Share Buyback programme of up to 367,673,632 own shares (up to 10% of share capital) is scheduled to commence tomorrow. Recall that the maximum price is set at EUR 10.00/share and the minimum at EUR 0.22/share.
Jumbo sales Update April 2025
Jumbo released the sales update for April, with Group sales up by 5% y-o-y, on tough comparable, (due to timing difference of Easter celebration). In more detail, Greek sales were up by 4%, Romania also recorded higher sales of 10%, Cyprus followed with sales up by 7%, while Bulgaria recorded flattish sales growth in April 2025. In 4M25 terms, Jumbo recorded increased by 7.4% group sales, driven by Greek sales (up by 8%), followed by Romania up by 7% and Cyprus also up by 6%, while sales in Bulgaria were up by 1.5% y-o-y. The management expects that the consumption of summer goods will accelerate over the next 2 months, taking advantage of the extended duration of the summer season, and is optimistic about the group’s prospects, while it will possibly provide an initial estimate regarding the overall financial performance for 2025 with the announcement of the 1H25 results. Jumbo also confirmed that expanded its collaboration with the Israel group Fox, by granting them franchise rights for the Canadian market (expected in 1H26), while also announced that by the end of 2025 two additional franchise stores will open in Israel.
METLEN AGM on 3rd June
METLEN will hold its AGM on June 3, to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 1.50/share dividend (DY: 3.6%, ex-date: 26 June).
QUALCO’s IPO almost fully subscribed – press
According to press reports, the IPO of QUALCO for the up to 10,500,000 new shares and the sale of up to 7,500,000 existing shares at a EUR 5.04-5.46/share price range is close to fully subscribed already from yesterday, during the first day of the subscription period, which continues today and will conclude on Friday, 9 May. The issuance price is expected to be determined on Friday and the commencement of trading of all shares on 15 May.
Calendar of Events
Macros
08/05/25 | Trade Balance MAR (ELSTAT)
09/05/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI APR (ELSTAT), Industrial Production MAR (ELSTAT)
14/05/25 | Import Price Index in Industry MAR
16/05/25 | Fitch Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review
1Q:25 Results Release
08/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement (Bef-mkt)
09/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (Bef-mkt)
12/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
13/05/25 | KRI-KRI (Aft-mkt)
14/05/25 | Optima bank, OTE (Bef-mkt)
15/05/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Attica Bank
19/05/25 | Austriacard (Aft-mkt)
20/05/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
21/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Quest Holding (Aft-mkt)
22/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt), AS Company (trading update) (Aft-mkt)
23/05/25 | Premia Properties (trading update)
26/05/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
28/05/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM), Premia Properties (AGM)
14/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)
15/05/25 | Performance Technologies (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM), Loulis Food (AGM)
22/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (AGM), Thessaloniki Water Supply (AGM), Alpha Trust Holdings (AGM)
23/05/25 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM), Fais Group (AGM)
28/05/25 | Thrace Plastics (AGM)
29/05/25 | Profile Systems (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
10/06/25 | EYDAP (AGM)
11/06/25 | Jumbo (AGM), Prodea Investments (AGM)
12/06/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)
13/06/25 | Trade Estates (AGM), Interlife (AGM)
16/06/25 | Ble Kedros (AGM)
17/06/25 | Alter Ego Media (AGM)
18/06/25 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Mevaco (AGM), Petropoulos (AGM), Alpha Real Estate Services (AGM)
20/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM), Sunrise Mezz Plc (AGM)
23/06/25 | OTE (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
26/06/25 | LAMDA Development (AGM)
01/07/25 | ΚΡΙ–ΚΡΙ (AGM)
02/07/25 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)
03/07/25 | Elinoil (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
15/07/25 | AVAX (AGM)
22/07/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (AGM)
28/08/25 | Intralot (AGM)
08/09/25 | Orilina Properties (AGM)
Ex-Capital Return
03/06/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.298/share)
Ex-FY24 Dividend
07/05/25 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.80), BriQ Properties (EUR 0.135)
15/05/25 | Premia Properties (EUR 0.03)
16/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (EUR 2.00)
19/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.32)
20/05/25 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.80)
23/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (EUR 0.03)
26/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (EUR 0.479), Loulis Food (EUR 0.30)
27/05/25 | Alpha Trust Holdings (EUR 0.578)
03/06/25 | National Bank of Greece (EUR 0.44), Noval Property (EUR 0.043), Performance Technologies
10/06/25 | Thrace Plastics (remaining EUR 0.17)
16/06/25 | Prodea Investments
18/06/25 | EYDAP (EUR 0.07)
19/06/25 | Trade Estates (remaining EUR 0.052)
23/06/25 | Optima bank (EUR 0.57), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.29), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.30), Ble Kedros
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14), Viohalco (EUR 0.16), Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 0.50)
25/06/25 | Motor Oil (remaining EUR 1.10), GEK TERNA (EUR 0.40)
26/06/25 | ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.09)
27/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (EUR 0.15)
30/06/25 | Titan Cement (EUR 3.00), Euroconsultants (EUR 0.04)
01/07/25 | Profile Systems (EUR 0.064657), Thessaloniki Water Supply, AUSTRIACARD Holdings (EUR 0.11)
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (remaining EUR 0.55), Interlife (EUR 0.20)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
04/07/25 | Mevaco
10/07/25 | AS Company (EUR 0.17)
21/07/25 | PPC (EUR 0.40), Space Hellas (EUR 0.15)
04/08/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (EUR 1.92)
21/08/25 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.40)
25/08/25 | ADMIE Holding
02/09/25 | AVAX (EUR 0.07)
11/09/25 | Orilina Properties
Share Capital Increase (Evropi Holdings)
02/05/25-13/05/25 | Trading period of rights
02/05/25-16/05/25 | Exercise period of rights
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
08/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (09:30 GR time)
Initial Public Offering (IPO) Period
07/05/25-09/05/25 | QUALCO GROUP
15/05/25 | Commencement of trading of shares
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Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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