Market Comment
AthEx ended November with strong growth of 4.41%, despite the losses the benchmark incurred on Friday. Activity was heavily front-loaded due to Monday’s MSCI rebalance, while Thursday and Friday traded in quieter fashion amid the US Thanksgiving break. Infrastructure, industrials, utilities, aviation and financials underpinned the market’s strength. Toward the end of Friday’s session sellers obtained a clear advantage, although mid-caps and a few blue chips resisted the pressure and posted gains.
General index closed 2,083.15 points, shedding 0.79% from Thursday’s 2,099.80 points. On a weekly basis it improved 1.04%. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.87%, ending at 5,270.54 points, though mid-caps expanded 0.22%. The banks index conceded 0.99%, as Eurobank fell 1.87%, Alpha lost 1.54%, Optima gave up 1.41%, Piraeus shrank 0.70%, National eased 0.30% and Bank of Cyprus shied 0.25%. In total 38 stocks made gains, 51 suffered losses and 19 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 152.2 million euros, up from Thursday’s €131.5 m.
Despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year, there is little room for complacency, as geopolitical developments continue to reshape market conditions. On one hand, diplomatic efforts toward ending the war in Ukraine have revived hopes for de-escalation; on the other, rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are adding a layer of uncertainty. The seasonally positive month of December, combined with the renewed optimism stemming from expectations of interest-rate cuts, makes the market environment even more complex.
Against this backdrop, we anticipate a session marked by caution and wait-and-see attitudes, with investors monitoring international markets more closely as several important short-term developments come into focus.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/PDMA: The Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) will auction 52-week treasury bills, in book entry form, to the amount of €500mn, it announced last Friday. The issue, opening this Wednesday December 3, matures on December 4, 2026, and the settlement date is upcoming Friday December 5.
Greece/Growth Outlook: The 2026–2029 Multiannual Financial Framework confirms that Greece’s growth will slow after the Recovery Fund ends in 2026. GDP growth is projected to ease from 2.4% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, 1.6% in 2028, and 1.3% in 2029, mainly due to reduced investment flows once Recovery Fund spending ceases. Public investment increases will not fully offset the gap, prompting the Hellenic Fiscal Council to stress the need for structural reforms to boost productivity, exports, and business resilience. Medium‑term challenges remain, with labor productivity and real wages among the lowest in the EU, and GDP per capita at only 70% of the European average.
Greece/PPI: ELSTAT reported that Greece’s Overall Producer Price Index (PPI) in Industry fell by 1.4% y-o-y in October 2025, following a 2.3% decline in October 2024. On a monthly basis, the index dropped 0.3% compared with September 2025, while the average index for the November 2024–October 2025 period remained flat versus the previous 12 months, after a 3.4% decrease had been recorded a year earlier.
Banking Sector: Bank of Greece data for October show a modest recovery in housing loans, mainly supported by disbursements under the “My Home II” program. Overall, net credit expansion reached €30mn in January–October, marking positive financing flows after repayments. In contrast, business lending recorded a net contraction of about €1.4bn, reflecting weaker new loan activity following the usual quarterly peak in September. Also, total deposits in October 2025 fell sharply, with a net outflow of €2.576bn compared to a €3.058bn inflow in September. Despite the monthly contraction, annual growth rates for private‑sector deposits remained stable at 5.6%, and corporate deposits at 12.3%
Intralot: Intralot has called an Extraordinary General Meeting for December 19, with an agenda that includes amongst other a share buyback program and a change of the corporate name to Bally’s Intralot. The proposed buyback plan provides for the repurchase of up to 10% of the share capital, with a minimum price of €0.80 and a maximum price of €1.50 per share. The treasury shares may be used for employee incentive plans and/or as consideration in potential acquisitions.
On Friday, the company’s major shareholder, Soo Kim, purchased 3 million shares while BoD member Mr. Theodorides bought on November 27 200K shares at €0.96/share.
OPAP (CMD Highlights): In the conference call regarding the group transformation post Alwyn merge management said that from 2026 onward, the new entity plans to distribute a minimum annual dividend of €1.00 per share, offering a scrip option for all dividends and leaving room for special dividends or share buybacks with no change in dividend taxation (remaining at 5%). The group targets a net leverage ratio of 2.5x and, according to mid-term guidance, expects low double-digit growth in net revenue alongside an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 40%.
According to Allwyn’s management, PrizePicks earn-out agreement includes a system of “tiers.” The earn-out is crystallized and payments begin only if the average adjusted EBITDA for the 2026–28 period exceeds $475mn. This implies an increase of roughly 40% compared with the current (12-month rolling) EBITDA — which stood at $339mn as of June 30. For the earn-out to reach its maximum projected level of $1bn, adjusted EBITDA for the 2026–28 period should rise to $735mn. Achieving this would require double-digit growth and flawless execution of the business plan.
Regarding regulatory developments, management clarified that the new UK gaming taxes do not impact Allwyn’s operations in the country, as it operates the National Lottery, and noted that although Brazil is considering a gaming tax increase, no final decision has been made.
The terms of the offer will not change: the transaction will not proceed if more than 5% of shareholders vote against it; if opposition remains below 5%, the deal will move forward, and dissenting shareholders will retain a cash exit right at €19.04 per share.
Alpha Bank: The bank trades today ex FY:25 interim gross dividend €0.014849/share (net €0.046/share).
Aegean Air: Aegean Airlines said on Saturday that its flight schedule is operating normally after the carrier completed a mandatory software rollback on several Airbus A320-family aircraft, following an alert issued by the European plane maker late Friday. The Greek airline said it activated all required operational and technical procedures “promptly” after Airbus instructed operators worldwide to immediately restore earlier software versions on certain A320-series jets. The directive followed an investigation into a JetBlue incident last month in which a sudden altitude drop was linked to potentially corrupted flight-control data caused by intense solar radiation. Aegean said the work has been completed successfully and no flights were altered or disrupted.
Mouzakis: The company announced that Cepal Hellas, has asked the court to place a mortgage note on two of Mouzakis’ properties. This move is meant to secure a claim of about €2mn, linked to Mouzakis’ guarantee for Ilios Knitting Industry S.A.
ADMIE: ADMIE announced that the undersea electricity interconnection between Crete and mainland Greece is expected to generate savings of up to €5bn by 2035. The project reduces Public Utility Charges (PUC) by replacing costly local generation on Crete, with annual consumer benefits estimated at €400–600mn over the next decade. ADMIE noted that maintaining reserve generation capacity (“cold reserve”) on the island would otherwise cost €40–60mn per year. Overall, grid usage charges will be far outweighed by the savings in electricity supply costs.
Hellenic Exchanges: The company’s IR manager Mr. S. Konstantinou sold 7.1K shares of the company at €6.243/share.
¢ Buybacks
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