¢ Market Comment
The week was dominated by the banks’ earnings season, and trading mostly tracked the headline results. All four systemic banks reported broadly solid, largely expected results for Q4:25 and FY25, so there were no meaningful surprises or fresh market catalysts from earnings. Weak sentiment in global markets continued to drag on local performance, February has therefore closed with a 1.61% monthly decline for the benchmark.
General index closed at 2,277.60 points, shedding 1.15% from Thursday’s 2,304.14 points. On a weekly basis it advanced 0.17%. The large-cap FTSE-25 index also contracted 1.15%, ending at 5,7990.42 points, and the banks index dropped 1.51%. National Bank eased 3.97%, Metlen gave up 3.35% and Jumbo lost 3.05%, while Viohalco grew 2.87% and Cenergy Holdings grabbed 2.56%. In total 22 stocks obtained gains, 91 suffered losses and 11 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €707.2 million, up from Thursday’s €298.4mn.
Geopolitics in focus: U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend drove oil prices up and sparked risk-off moves. Historically, such geopolitical shocks are short-lived and markets tend to rebound to their prior levels, so this pullback could present attractive mid‑term entry opportunities for investors. Yet what we should expect near term is volatility and increased correlation with major foreign exchanges. Finally, note that OPAP, Noval Properties and Bank of Greece will announce FY:25 results today after market.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/PDMA: On March 4, 2026 the Hellenic Republic will auction 52 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity March 5, 2027. The amount to be auctioned is €400mn.
OTE: The incumbent’s new share buyback program is initiated as of today till January 18, 2027 to the amount of €177mn. All acquired shares will be cancelled. Current treasury at 7,797,014 shares.
Noval Property (financial calendar): FY:25 results on March 2. AGM May 13. Ex-dividend date June 22. Dividend record date June 23. Dividend payment June 26. H1:26 results July 30.
Trastor (FY:25 results): GNAV at €822.6mn. Rental income up 32.9% to €40.6mn compared to €30.6mn in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA at €30.1mn, up 40.4% vs 2024 (€21.5mn). RE revaluation gains at €24.5mn. Net income at €36.43mn vs €33.4mn in 2024 (+8.7%). RE portfolio consisting of offices (54%), logistics (28%). Net LTV at 48.3% (43.2% in 2024) with LTV at 53% (49.3% in 2024). NAV at €415.3mn, +7.8% compared to €385.3mn in 2024 or €1.697/share. Current ASE price (€1.22) implying a hefty 28.1% discount over NAV. FFO at €11.611mn compared to €3.812mn in 2024. FY:25 dividend €0.04/share (net) compared to €0.03/share in 2024. AGM on March 20 to approve the dividend distribution and €150mn SCI through rights issue to improve liquidity and free float.
|
TRASTOR |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
32,093 |
42,585 |
32.7% |
|
EBITDA Adjusted |
21,476 |
30,148 |
40.4% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
66.9% |
70.8% |
+388 bps |
|
Net Income |
33,406 |
36,326 |
8.7% |
|
Net Mrg |
104.1% |
85.3% |
-1,879 bps |
Phoenix Vega Mezz: 2025 annual results will be published on 20 April 2026, the AGM will take place on 17 June 2026, and the 2026 interim results will be released on 30 September 2026.
SunriseMezz: 2025 annual results will be released on 20 April 2026, followed by the AGM on 17 June 2026, and the 2026 interim results on 30 September 2026.
Bank of Greece (financial calendar): FY:25 results today after market. AGM on PAril 6. Ex-dividend date April 23. Dividend record date April 24. Dividend payment April 30.
Premia (FY:25 results): GNAV at €692.4mn, up 39% y-o-y. Gross yield at 7.1%, WAULT at 10.5 years. NAV at €278.8 or €2.22/share with credit rating AA from ICAP (upgraded from A in the last 3 years), up from 2.08/share or €197.9mn in 2024. Discount on NAV at 37.1%. Sales up 68% to €37.5mn, Adjusted EBITDA (ex-revaluation gains) +71% to €24.10mn. Weighted average Loan duration 6.9 years with 56% of debt fixed and avg cost at 3.3%. Revaluation gains at €33mn in 2025 compared to €23mn in FY:24. FFO doubled at €9.8mn (€4.1mn in 2024). Net LTV at 57% (58% in 2024). Gross debt at €433.8mn (€310.3mn in 2024), net debt €396.9mn (€288.4mn in 2024).
|
PREMIA |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
22,354 |
37,500 |
67.8% |
|
EBITDA Adjusted |
14,100 |
24,100 |
70.9% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
63.1% |
64.3% |
+119 bps |
|
Net Income |
40,667 |
45,500 |
11.9% |
|
Net Mrg |
181.9% |
121.3% |
-6,059 bps |
NBG (Q4:25/FY:25 review and CC highlights): NBG reported a FY25 RoTE of 15.5% and a CET1 ratio of 18.8%, with PE loans rising €3.5bn year on year to €37bn, supported by a strong 4Q25 disbursement acceleration across multiple sectors. This drove +10% PE expansion, well above the >€2.5bn FY guidance, with corporate credit up 13% and retail adding €0.3bn, driven by solid growth in SBs (+16%) and consumer lending (+7%). Deposits increased €2bn. FY25 financials were broadly in line with forecasts, with NII at €2.1bn, NFCI at €469mn, opex at €950mn, and PAT at €1.16bn. The bank confirmed an ordinary payout of 60% (€0.7bn) and announced a proposal for an additional €0.3bn distribution in 2026, to be executed via buybacks. Management reiterating that the Katseli law has no material impact.
Net interest margin held at 283bps, above the >280bps target, while NII (€2.14b) and fees (+10% Y-o-Y) exceeded guidance. Operating expenses rose 7%, slightly above the medium term trend due to continued investment in people and technology, but the C/I remained low at 34.1%. Asset quality stayed benign, with CoR at 40bps and the NPE ratio at 2.4%, both better than guided. Capital remained a key strength, with CET1 at 18.8%, above the >18% post payout target, while performing loans grew €3.5b, far surpassing the >€2.5b guidance. Overall, FY25 results confirm strong execution, balance sheet resilience, and capacity for elevated shareholder distributions.
High level KPIs for 2028, showing a business plan built on sustained income growth, disciplined cost control, and strong capital generation. The bank targets c.7% NII CAGR and high single digit fee growth, supported by continued loan expansion and deeper cross sell, while keeping the C/I at 36% through productivity gains and technology investments. Asset quality is expected to remain robust, with CoR normalizing to c.30bps and the NPE ratio falling below 2%, enabling healthy profitability. These dynamics support a RoTE of 17% and EPS above €1.70 by 2028, underpinned by >€10bn of performing loan growth and a CET1 ratio maintained below but close to 16%, preserving strategic flexibility for distributions and growth.
Under the 2026–2028 business plan, NBG targets RoTE of 17% and EPS above €1.70 by 2028, supported by a strategy built on steady income growth, disciplined cost control, strong capital generation, and continued credit expansion under benign asset quality conditions. The bank expects NII to recover in 2026, grow at roughly 7% CAGR, and exceed €2.5bn in 2028, driven by more than €10bn of performing loan growth and a NIM above 275–290bps, while fees are projected to rise at high single digit rates through stronger corporate cross sell and deeper retail investment product penetration. Operating expenses are guided to grow at about 6% CAGR, allowing the cost to income ratio to decline to 36% by 2028, while CoR normalizes to c.30bps as asset quality remains robust and NPEs fall below 2%. These dynamics support the targeted profitability metrics, with CET1 expected to be maintained just below 16% by 2028, creating room for higher shareholder distributions or potential M&A.
The following table summarize results vs. our Q4/FY:25 estimates:
|
NBG |
Act. |
Est. |
Act. Vs Est. |
||||||
|
(In Million Euro) |
FY24 |
FY25 |
YoY (%) |
3Q25 |
4Q25 |
QoQ (%) |
4Q25 |
FY25 |
QoQ |
|
NII |
2,356.3 |
2,136.3 |
-9% |
526.5 |
530.2 |
1% |
527.6 |
2,133.7 |
-0.5% |
|
Fee income |
427.2 |
469.1 |
10% |
115.5 |
132.7 |
15% |
121.3 |
457.6 |
-8.6% |
|
Trading |
92.7 |
174.3 |
88% |
7.8 |
25.7 |
229% |
14.0 |
162.7 |
|
|
Other Income |
11.1 |
174.3 |
1470% |
-5.3 |
2.9 |
-155% |
1.7 |
2.6 |
|
|
Total income |
2,887.3 |
2,783.5 |
-4% |
644.5 |
691.5 |
7% |
664.5 |
2,756.5 |
-3.9% |
|
Operating costs |
-884.3 |
-948.5 |
7% |
-234.1 |
-263.3 |
12% |
-257.5 |
-942.7 |
-2.2% |
|
Pre-provision-profits |
2,003.1 |
1,835.0 |
-8% |
410.4 |
428.2 |
4% |
407.0 |
1,813.8 |
-4.9% |
|
Core PPI |
1,899.3 |
1,656.9 |
-13% |
407.9 |
399.6 |
-2% |
391.3 |
1,648.5 |
-2.1% |
|
Provisions |
-179.7 |
-150.6 |
-16% |
-34.8 |
-37.8 |
9% |
-35.0 |
-147.8 |
-7.4% |
|
Other results |
-42.3 |
-37.9 |
-10% |
-10.5 |
-17.1 |
63% |
-10.0 |
-30.8 |
|
|
PBT |
1,781.1 |
1,646.5 |
-8% |
365.1 |
373.3 |
2% |
362.0 |
1,635.2 |
-3.0% |
|
Corporate taxes |
356.3 |
-384.8 |
-208% |
86.8 |
-92.6 |
-207% |
83.3 |
375.5 |
|
|
Net profit (continued) |
1,424.8 |
1,261.7 |
-11% |
278.3 |
280.7 |
1% |
278.8 |
1,259.8 |
-0.7% |
|
Minorities |
3.8 |
3.1 |
-18% |
1.0 |
0.7 |
-30% |
1.0 |
2.9 |
|
|
Attributable net profit |
1,157.7 |
1,159.7 |
0% |
273.7 |
275.1 |
1% |
277.8 |
1,162.9 |
1.0% |
Alpha Bank (Q4/FY:25 Results review and CC highlights): Alpha Bank delivered an exceptionally strong FY25 performance, beating expectations across every major line and posting record profitability, underscoring the success of its strategic execution and the earnings uplift from recent acquisitions. Q4 reported profit reached €237mn, up 28% q o q, bringing FY25 profit to €943mn, a 44% y o y increase, well above the €900mn target and 16% ahead of consensus. NII rose 3% q-o-q to €413mn, reaching €1.61bn for the year, fully in line with guidance and supported by Astrobank and higher volumes. Fees surged 12% q o q to €136mn, up 19% y o y to €501mn, comfortably beating the €460mn target, driven primarily by strong real estate income.
Costs increased 7% q o q to €226mn due to Astrobank and seasonal effects, yet FY25 OpEx of €850mn came in below the €870mn target, demonstrating effective cost control. Asset quality remained stable with an NPE ratio of 3.6% and 58% coverage, while €62mn provisions implied a 58bps CoR in Q4, keeping the full year CoR at 48bps, only slightly above the 45bps guidance. The performing book expanded by €1.8bn q o q, including €0.6bn from Astrobank and €1.3bn net credit expansion, while customer funds rose 4% q o q, two thirds from Astrobank, with total customer funds reaching €77.5bn and AuM net sales of €0.3bn. Capital remained solid with 15.0% fully loaded CET1, 20.2% total capital ratio, and MREL at 30%, absorbing the 20bps impact from the higher payout.
Shareholder returns strengthened with the payout ratio increased to 55%, equivalent to €519mn, including the €111mn interim dividend paid in December. Profitability metrics were robust, with ROTE at 13.1% in Q4 and 13.8% for FY25, while TBVPS rose to €3.28, up 9% y o y. Group performing loans reached €37.5bn, up 5% q o q, and deposits increased by €2.2bn to €55.1bn, almost entirely from Astrobank. Management also guided 2026 EPS at €0.40, up 11% y o y and aligned with consensus.
Alpha Bank closes FY25 with a clear outperformance across all targets, strengthened commercial momentum, and record earnings, entering FY26 from a position of scale, capital strength, and accelerating profitability.
The below table summarizes our vs reported results:
|
Alpha Bank |
Act. |
Est. |
Act. Vs Est. |
|||||||
|
(In Million Euro) |
FY24 |
FY25 |
YoY (%) |
3Q25 |
4Q25 |
QoQ (%) |
4Q25 |
FY25 |
4Q25 |
FY25 |
|
NII |
1,645.1 |
1,610.2 |
-2% |
402.2 |
413.3 |
3% |
414.2 |
1,611.1 |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
Fee income |
419.5 |
501.3 |
19% |
119.7 |
136.1 |
14% |
122.7 |
471.5 |
-9.8% |
-5.9% |
|
Trading |
112.4 |
60.5 |
-46% |
-8.0 |
14.2 |
-276% |
20.0 |
66.3 |
|
|
|
Other Income |
46.3 |
39.2 |
-15% |
9.5 |
19.1 |
101% |
15.0 |
56.3 |
|
|
|
Total income |
2,223.3 |
2,211.1 |
-1% |
523.4 |
582.7 |
11% |
571.9 |
2,205.2 |
-1.8% |
-0.3% |
|
Operating costs |
-867.9 |
-856.3 |
-1% |
-213.9 |
-226.5 |
6% |
-237.5 |
-869.2 |
4.8% |
1.5% |
|
Pre-provision-profits |
1,355.4 |
1,354.9 |
0% |
309.4 |
356.2 |
15% |
334.5 |
1,336.0 |
-6.1% |
-1.4% |
|
Core PPI |
1,196.8 |
1,294.4 |
8% |
307.9 |
335.3 |
9% |
299.5 |
1,213.4 |
-10.7% |
-6.3% |
|
Provisions |
-230.7 |
-198.3 |
-14% |
-45.4 |
-61.5 |
35% |
-46.3 |
-183.1 |
-24.6% |
-7.6% |
|
Other results |
-10.6 |
33.8 |
-420% |
11.7 |
17.4 |
49% |
20.0 |
36.4 |
|
|
|
PBT |
1,114.1 |
1,197.1 |
7% |
275.7 |
312.1 |
13% |
308.1 |
1,189.3 |
-1.3% |
-0.7% |
|
Corporate taxes |
322.6 |
308.4 |
-4% |
72.2 |
84.4 |
17% |
80.1 |
304.5 |
|
|
|
Net profit (continued) |
791.5 |
888.8 |
12% |
203.5 |
227.7 |
12% |
228.0 |
884.8 |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
Minorities |
0.6 |
0.0 |
-100% |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-100% |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
Attributable net profit |
652.4 |
943.3 |
45% |
186.7 |
236.6 |
27% |
198.0 |
901.7 |
-16.3% |
-4.4% |
OPAP (Q4/FY:25 results preview): OPAP is set to announce Q4:25 results today after market while a conference call is scheduled for tomorrow. We expect a decent finish of the year on the back of strong Online and VLTs performance despite tough comps in Q4:24. This strength is anticipated to be partially offset by weaker sports betting performance, as the last quarter proved particularly player-friendly. GGR in Q4:25 GGR is forecasted at €651.3m, slightly up on a y-o-y basis, supported by robust performance in online casino (10.3% y-o-y) and VLTs (+2.9% y-o-y), offset by softer sports betting (-2.2% y-o-y). Yet, we expect a solid showing in numericals (-2.1%), despite tough comparables stemming from favorable Joker jackpot rollovers in the prior-year period.NGR is projected at €440.0m, down 1% y-o-y while EBITDA is forecast at €235m, reflecting a 4% y-o-y decline. Net profit is projected at €135.0m, down 1% y-o-y.
Finally, following the completion of the business combination between OPAP and Allwyn, the new entity is expected to distribute a dividend of €0.80 per share.
The following table summarize our estimates:
|
OPAP |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR mn. |
FY |
FY Est. |
(%) |
Q4 |
Q4 Est |
(%) |
|
Sports Betting |
746.2 |
781.8 |
4.8% |
229.0 |
224.0 |
-2.2% |
|
Numerical Games |
774.8 |
804.8 |
3.9% |
201.7 |
197.5 |
-2.1% |
|
Lotteries |
106.1 |
107.6 |
1.5% |
31.1 |
30.5 |
-1.9% |
|
VLTs |
344.7 |
359.6 |
4.3% |
94.8 |
97.5 |
2.9% |
|
Online Casino |
325.3 |
353.4 |
8.6% |
92.3 |
101.8 |
10.3% |
|
GGR |
2,297.1 |
2,407.2 |
4.8% |
648.8 |
651.3 |
0.4% |
|
NGR |
1,570.7 |
1,637.6 |
4.3% |
443.1 |
440.0 |
-0.7% |
|
EBITDA |
834.3 |
847.6 |
1.6% |
245.1 |
235.0 |
-4.1% |
|
EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR) |
36.3% |
35.2% |
-111 bps |
37.8% |
36.1% |
-170 bps |
|
Net Income |
493.7 |
498.3 |
0.9% |
133.7 |
135.0 |
1.0% |
|
Net Mrg (vs GGR) |
21.5% |
20.7% |
-79 bps |
20.6% |
20.7% |
+12 bps |
CC Details: Tuesday March 3, 2026 at 16:00 GR-Time
- Greece: +30 211 180 2000
- UK & Intl: +44 (0) 203 059 5872
- UK/TF: +44 (0) 800 368 1063
- USA: +1 516 447 5632
- Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/opap25Q4.html
ElvalHalcor: FY25 results on Tuesday March 3rd before market opening followed by the conference call the following day Wednesday March 4th at 15:00 GR-Time.
Other FY:25 Results:
|
EUROXX |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
32,052 |
46,197 |
44.1% |
|
EBITDA |
6,240 |
8,760 |
40.4% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
19.5% |
19.0% |
-50 bps |
|
Net Income |
3,934 |
13,534 |
244.0% |
|
Net Mrg |
12.3% |
29.3% |
+1,702 bps |
¢ Buybacks
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