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Market Comment AthEx had a weak session closing at the day’s low, below the technical significant 1,400-point level with National Bank leading the drop losing significant ground. The market continues to fret over a government intervention with some extraordinary levy that could be slapped on power companies or on banks’ profits. Still, November closed with monthly gains of 0.78%. General index closed at 1,393.49 points, shedding 0.74% from Thursday’s 1,403.83 points. On a weekly basis it declined 0.58%. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.87%, ending at 3,356.95 points and the banks index conceded 1.14%, as National fell 2.11%, Alpha gave up 0.88%, Piraeus parted with 0.77% and Eurobank shed 0.50%. In total 46 stocks registered gains, 51 suffered losses and 25 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 96.2 million euros, up from Thursday’s €60.5m. We expect investors to focus on official statements from London Conference related to potential intention of extraordinary taxes in banks, energy or refineries. Note however that PM Mitsotakis in an interview excluded the possibility of extraordinary taxation. ¢ In the Spotlight AthEx/London Roadshow: Morgan Stanley and Athens Stock Exchange will hold this week the Greek Investment Conference in London. The event will take place on Monday 2 December and Tuesday 3 December 2024. Agenda highlights include a discussion with Mr. Mitsotakis – Prime Minister of the Hellenic Republic, multiple panels and a conversation with Bank officials and Mr. Patelis – Chief Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister. Reportedly 38 listed companies participating the event namely:
Note that right after a Wood conference is scheduled (3-6 December) to promote EMEA markets while Capital Link will host another event for Greek equities in New York on December 9. Banking Sector: In an interview PM Mr. Mitsotakis said that an extraordinary tax in banks is not in the table since the budget has ceiling of expenses from EU. Greece/PDMA: On December 4, 2024 the Hellenic Republic will auction 52 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity December 5, 2025. The amount to be auctioned is 500 million euro. Settlement date is December 6, 2024. Greece/Inflation: Inflation in Greece settled at 3% in November, a marginal drop from 3.1% in October, according to data from the European Union’s statistical body, Eurostat. A year earlier, in November 2023, inflation in Greece was recorded at 2.9%. Compared to inflation in Greece, the Eurozone saw 2.3% in November 2024, up from 2.0% in October, based on Eurostat’s preliminary estimates. Services are expected to have the highest annual inflation rate at 3.9%, marginally down from 4.0% in October, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco at 2.8% (down from 2.9%). Non-energy industrial goods were at 0.7% (up from 0.5%), and energy at -1.9% (a less severe decline compared to -4.6% in October). Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, inflation in France was at 1.7% in November, up from 1.6% in October. In Germany, inflation remained steady at 2.4%. Belgium reported the highest inflation rate at 5%, while Ireland recorded the lowest at just 0.5%. Greece/Unemployment: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Greece dropped to 9.8% in October 2024, down from a revised 10.8% in October 2023 but up from a revised 9.4% in September 2024, according to data from ELSTAT. The number of employed individuals rose to 4,284,694, marking an increase of 67,723 (1.6%) compared to October 2023 and 22,002 (0.5%) compared to September 2024. Conversely, the number of unemployed stood at 466,858, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 44,806 people (-8.8%) but a month-on-month increase of 22,104 (5.0%). The non-active population under the age of 75—individuals neither working nor actively seeking employment—totaled 3,017,785 in October. This group saw a decrease of 45,427 people (-1.5%) compared to October 2023 and a similar drop of 45,518 (-1.5%) compared to September 2024. Unemployment among individuals aged 15-24 remained high at 23.3% in October, underscoring ongoing challenges in youth employment. Attica Bank: 359,469,360 warrants exercise period expired on November 28 and were all fully exercised resulting the issue of 1,257,995,354 new shares. HFSF exercised 90,452,943 warrants. Thrivest exercised 246,778,895 warrants. GEKTERNA (9M:24 results): GEKTERNA announced a satisfactory set of 9M:24 results with strong construction and concessions contribution due to expected normalization in Thermal Energy/supply division. The set form continuous operations posted Group Sales €2,233m, -5.2% y-o-y, Adj. EBITDA €279m (-0.6% y-o-y) and Adj. Net Profits €96mn (+25% y-o-y). As per segment: § Constructions: Revenues amounted to €916.7m vs. €991.6m in 9M23, driven by execution of projects related to the group’s investment plan and PPPs, while given the mix of the projects under execution, adj. EBITDA expanded to €98.2m recording an increase of 22.7% y-o-y. The backlog of the segment, including projects to be signed and projects related to own-investments amounted to €5.0bn. § Concessions: Revenues recorded an increase of 23.4% y-o-y, to €204.8m supported by the traffic volume growth (+7.9% y-o-y) in the group’s Nea Odos and Kentriki Odos, with adj. EBITDA following a similar direction, increasing to €126m (+9.8% y-o-y). Note that, other than the additional sections of the E-65 Motorway that were given to traffic, revenues were also supported by the upwards-adjusted toll prices. Recall that as of October 6, 2024 GEK TERNA started to operate Attiki Odos, thus Q4:24 results will incorporate this new concession. § Thermal energy generation and supply: Revenues posted an anticipated decrease to €1.19bn vs. €1.27m (-6.1% y-o-y), as a result of the de-escalation of energy prices (average price in wholesale market dropped by 23% y-o-y), and despite the increased market share of the group in energy supply. Adj. EBITDA for the segment settled at €82.6m vs. €102.9m in 9M:23. § RES – that is classified as held for sale due to the announced agreement with Masdar: Revenues reached €220.4m (+27.3% y-o-y), on the back of more favorable wind conditions and increased capacity with adj. EBITDA (activities held for sale) growing to €145.9m, posting a 24.2% y-o-y increase. Group net debt €1.7bn (Pro-forma group net debt €3.2bn after sale of Terna Energy and addition of Attica Motorway – Pro-forma parent net debt €0.1bn). Construction margins, strong backlog, credible execution, unique infrastructure assets under development and de-escalation of debt provide the best proxy in AthEx to capture infrastructure hidden value along with construction growth.
Evropi Holdings: As today, the 70,362,390 new shares of the company are admitted to trading on the Athens Stock Exchange following the recent share capital increase due to the merger by acquisition of the non-listed company “INTRACOM PROPERTIES”, according to the determined shares΄ exchange ratio. As of December 2, 2024, and following the cancellation of 24,177,910 old shares of “EVROPI HOLDINGS S.A.” held by “INTRACOM PROPERTIES”, due to the merger, the total number of the company’s listed shares amounts to 86,403,698 shares. CNL Capital: The company trades today ex FY:24 net interim dividend €0.25/share. Premia: €3.81mn rights issue fully covered by major shareholder Terna Energy: Masdar stake at 70.43% (83,357,830 shares). Alpha Trust Andromeda: NAV as of end October 2023 stood at €8.17/share vs an ASE closing price of €6.4/share (discount 21.66%). Top 5 holdings: Tital (7.85%), Quest (5.46%), OTE (5.37%), Metlen (5.19%) Petropoulos (3.76%). Intralot (9M:24 results): OpCF €81.6mn. CAPEX €24.7mn. Gross cash €107.4mn. Gross debt €433.6mn. Net Debt €326.2mn
Elinoil (9M:24 results): Net debt up 53.3% to €133.504mn from €87.114mn in FY:23.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, AthEx.
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