Market Comment
The outbreak of war in the Middle East last Saturday introducing a new layer of uncertainty with potentially unpredictable consequences for both the global and domestic economy. In line with international markets, AthEx recorded sharp losses on Monday, although the benchmark index appeared to find a floor and recover from the session’s intraday lows. Spike in energy prices fueled concerns over inflation; this negative backdrop was swiftly reflected across the majority of listed stocks.
General index closed at 2 2,200.98 points, shedding 3.36% from Friday’s 2,277.60 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 3.51%, ending at 5,596.12 points. The banks index slumped 5.01%, as Piraeus dropped 6.77%, Optima fell 6.03%, Alpha parted with 5.91%, Eurobank gave up 5.61% and National eased 3.23%. In total seven stocks bucked the trend to show gains, 112 reported losses and four remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €384.5 million, down from last Friday’s €707.2mn.
Another volatile session should be expected as investors will keep following war news-flow rather updated fundamentals.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/PDMA: Tomorrow, the Hellenic Republic will auction 52 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity March 5, 2027. The amount to be auctioned is €400mn. Settlement date is March 6, 2026 (T+2). During the auction non – competitive bids can be submitted up to 25% of the auction amount.
Greece/PMI: S&P global PMI Greek index improved further in February 2026 to 54.4 compared to 54.2 in January 2026, the highest reading in the last 6 months.
Greece/Energy: Greece generated €972mn in electricity‑export revenues in 2025, marking a sharp improvement in its external energy position, as the electricity trade balance posted a €261mn surplus, reversing the €400mn deficit of 2019.
Alpha Trust Andromeda: NAV as of end February 2026 (February 27) stood at €10.42 compared to an ASE closing price of €8.92/share. Discount over NAV currently at 14.44%.
Ellaktor: The company concluded for €44mn the acquisition of an office premises building in Central Athens from Prodea REIT.
NBG: The bank launched its new voluntary‑exit scheme, with caps of €190k for lump‑sum payments and €300k for long‑term leave packages, which can last 2–7 years.
Aegean Air: FY:25 results will be released on March 12 before market opening with scheduled CC to follow at 4pm local GR time on the same day. AGM on April 22. Ex-dividend date April 28. Dividend record date April 29. Dividend payment May 5. The company’s listed retail bond expires and will cease trading on March 9 with the company paying off initial capital (at par, €1000/bond) plus last coupon payment (14th tranche, €18.1/bond) for the remaining 196,819 bonds that are still trading on March 12.
OPAP (Q4/FY:25 results review): OPAP announced a broadly in line set of results despite the higher costs (payroll +12%) and one-off marketing expenses of related to rebranding of €10m. In details:
§ FY:25 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased to new record high levels of €2,407.9m vs €2,296.2m in FY’24, higher by 4.9% y-o-y on the back of robust online growth and strong retail performance. Q4:25 GGR came in at €652m, recording an increase of 0.6% y-o-y, with strong VLTs performance at +9.2% and iGaming (Online Casino) at +16.2%.
§ Revenues from lottery reached €803.7m in FY:25 vs €774.8m in FY:24, higher by 3.7% y-o-y on the back of solid KINO and exceptional Tzoker performance. Lottery GGR in Q4:25 decreased by 2.6% y-o-y to €196.4m.
§ Betting revenues reached €782.2m in FY:25 vs. €771.6m in FY:24, higher by 1.4% y-o-y. Betting GGR in Q4:25 landed at €224.4m (Q4:24: €236m), lower by 4.9% y-o-y, reflecting customer-friendly results during the period, part-offset by robust growth in Powerspin.
§ VLTs revenues in FY:25 landed at €365.6m, higher by 6.0% y-o-y (FY 2024: €344.7m). In Q4:25, VLTs revenues reached €103.5m, higher by 9.2% y-o-y, benefitting from the ongoing terminal upgrades.
§ Revenues from Instant & Passives stood at €105.8m in FY:25 compared with €105.1m in FY 2024, marginally higher by 0.7% y-o-y. Q4 2025 GGR came in at €28.7m, lower by 4.9% y-o-y (Q4:24: €30.1m), with performance partly mitigated by the Scratch game, which recorded a 7.5% increase y-o-y, aided by elevated commercial initiatives.
§ Revenues from iGaming (Online Casino) grew to €350.6m in FY:25, up by 16.9% y-o-y (FY:24: €299.9m). Q4:25 revenues landed at €99m compared with €85.2m in Q4:24, up by 16.2% y-o-y on the back of strong demand from both existing as well as new players.
§ Gross Profit (from gaming operations) in FY:25 increased by 5.1% y-o-y to €1,018.9m (FY:24 €969.7m), outpacing top-line growth. Q4:25 higher by 0.4% y-o-y at €278.4m (Q4:24: €277.2m).
§ Operating Expenses in FY:25 stood at €488.4m vs €425.9m in FY’24, higher by 14.7% y-o-y. Q4:25 OpEx reached €148.6m, higher by 33.4% y-o-y or 15.2% on l-f-l basis mostly due to the increased advertising costs and payroll expenses, on the back of higher headcount to support digital strategy.
§ Payroll expense in FY:25 stood at €119.3m compared with €104.3m in FY:24, higher by 14.4% y-o-y, reflecting increased. Q4:25 payroll expense increased by 20.5% y-o-y to €34.5m.
§ Marketing expense in FY:25 increased by 9.8% y-o-y to €156.5m vs. €142.6m in FY:24. Q4:25 marketing expense increased by 28.3% y-o-y or 22.2% on a l-f-l basis excluding rebranding related costs.
§ FY:25 EBITDA decreased marginally by 0.9% y-o-y to €824.6m (FY:24: €832m) or €836.6m (+1.1% y-oy) on a recurring basis. Q4:25 EBITDA came in at €212.0m (Q4:24: €245.1m), down by 13.5% y-o-y or at €222.4m l-f-l (-7.0% y-o-y), negatively impacted by higher OpEx.
§ Net Profit in FY:25 stood at €483.4m (FY:24: €485.8m), down by 0.5% y-o-y. Q4:25 Net Profit stood at €122.2m (Q4:24: €145.8m), lower by 16.2% y-o-y. On a l-f-l basis and after excluding one-off items in both years, Net Profit in FY:25 came in at €496.1m, recording an increase of 0.9% y-o-y, while in Q4:25 was €132.8m (-7.5% y-o-y).
§ Cash flows from operating activities in FY:25 stood at €716.5m versus €704.9m in FY:24; Cash flows from investing activities in FY 2025 amounted to an outflow of €36.0m, mainly attributable to the Group’s capex needs. Net debt at €166m.
We do not expect FY:25 results to materially impact the share price, as OPAP is currently in a transitional phase. The market’s focus has now shifted toward the timeline and execution of the Group’s consolidation into a single entity.
- Following the completion of the business combination between OPAP and Allwyn, the newly formed entity is expected to distribute a dividend of €0.80 per share (Ex-dividend date for June 19). OPAP remains under review, and we will reassess our investment case once the full consolidation of Allwyn is completed and updated financial results (full set) are available.
The following table summarize our estimates:
|
OPAP |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR mn. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
FY Est. |
(%) |
Q4 |
Q4 |
(%) |
Q4 Est. |
(%) |
|
Sports Betting |
746.2 |
782.2 |
4.8% |
781.8 |
0.1% |
236.0 |
224.4 |
-4.9% |
224.0 |
0.2% |
|
Numerical Games |
774.8 |
803.7 |
3.7% |
804.8 |
-0.1% |
201.7 |
196.4 |
-2.6% |
197.5 |
-0.5% |
|
Lotteries |
106.1 |
105.8 |
-0.2% |
107.6 |
-1.7% |
30.1 |
28.7 |
-4.9% |
30.5 |
-6.0% |
|
VLTs |
344.7 |
365.6 |
6.0% |
359.60 |
1.7% |
94.8 |
103.5 |
9.2% |
97.50 |
6.1% |
|
Online Casino |
325.3 |
350.6 |
7.8% |
353.39 |
-0.8% |
85.2 |
99.0 |
16.2% |
101.80 |
-2.8% |
|
GGR |
2,297.1 |
2,407.9 |
4.8% |
2,407.2 |
0.0% |
647.8 |
652.0 |
0.6% |
651.3 |
0.1% |
|
NGR |
1,570.7 |
1,643.2 |
4.6% |
1,638 |
0.3% |
443.1 |
445.6 |
0.6% |
440.0 |
-2.8% |
|
EBITDA |
834.3 |
824.6 |
-1.2% |
847.6 |
-2.7% |
245.1 |
212.0 |
-13.5% |
235.0 |
-9.8% |
|
EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR) |
36.3% |
34.2% |
-207 bps |
35.2% |
-96 bps |
37.8% |
32.5% |
-526 bps |
36.1% |
-356 bps |
|
Net Income |
493.7 |
485.5 |
-1.7% |
498.3 |
-2.6% |
133.7 |
122.2 |
-8.6% |
135.0 |
-9.5% |
|
Net Mrg (vs GGR) |
21.5% |
20.2% |
-133 bps |
20.7% |
-54 bps |
20.6% |
18.7% |
-186 bps |
20.7% |
-198 bps |
CC Details: Tuesday March 3, 2026 at 16:00 GR-Time
- Greece: +30 211 180 2000
- UK & Intl: +44 (0) 203 059 5872
- UK/TF: +44 (0) 800 368 1063
- USA: +1 516 447 5632
- Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/opap25Q4.html
Optima Bank (FY25 Results): Optima Bank delivered strong full year results, showing robust volume growth, good profitability, and continued balance sheet strength. The bank outperformed its own guidance, posting €170mn net profit and 25.3% ROTE, supported by a 40% surge in gross loans and 36% deposit growth, while maintaining a low 1.3% NPE ratio and 22.6% cost to core income. NII rised to €56.6mn (+8% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y) and fees surging to €21.6mn (+46% q-o-q, +49% y-o-y). Operating costs increased modestly to €17.6mn (+6% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y).
KPIs remained well above domestic peers, with Optima contributing ~21% of total market loan growth and sustaining strong deposit inflows. Wealth management expanded materially, with AuM up 28% y-o-y to €5.3bn, driven by strong mutual fund inflows.
Looking ahead to 2026, management guides for >€195mn net profit, €1.1bn loan growth (implying a total of €6.2bn in loans), €1.4bn deposit growth (implying a total of €7.7bn in deposits), and ~24% ROTE, CoR of 55bps and C/I <30%.
|
Optima Bank |
Act. |
Consensus |
Act. Vs Cons. |
|||||||
|
(In Million Euro) |
FY24 |
FY25 |
YoY (%) |
3Q25 |
4Q25 |
QoQ (%) |
4Q25E |
FY25E |
4Q25 |
FY25 |
|
NII |
189.9 |
210.0 |
11% |
52.2 |
56.6 |
8% |
54.2 |
207.6 |
-4% |
-1% |
|
Fee income |
41.3 |
61.8 |
50% |
14.7 |
21.6 |
46% |
16.9 |
57.1 |
-22% |
-8% |
|
Core PPI |
173.3 |
231.0 |
33% |
50.3 |
67.2 |
34% |
59.9 |
223.8 |
-11% |
-3% |
|
Net profit |
140.0 |
170.0 |
21% |
42.3 |
46.7 |
11% |
42.9 |
166.3 |
-8% |
-2% |
|
Deposits |
4,643.0 |
6,299.0 |
36% |
4,132.0 |
6,299.0 |
52% |
6,014.0 |
6,014.0 |
-5% |
-5% |
|
Loans |
3,613.0 |
5,050.0 |
40% |
3,272.0 |
5,050.0 |
54% |
4,920.0 |
4,920.0 |
-3% |
-3% |
Optima Bank will hold it’s conference call today at 11:00 GR-Time. Conference call details:
§ Greece: +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000
§ UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ UK & Intl participants: +44 (0) 203 059 5872
§ USA: +1 516 447 5632
§ Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/optimabank260303.html
Bank of Greece (FY:25 results): FY:25 gross dividend €0.6720/share. AGM on April 6. Ex-dividend date April 23. Dividend record date April 24. Dividend payment April 30.
|
Bank of Greece |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Interest Income |
-6,704,267 |
-3,491,530 |
– |
|
Total Revenues |
436,015 |
880,773 |
102.0% |
|
Net Income |
82,930 |
257,700 |
210.7% |
Lamda: FY25 results on Thursday March 5th with the conference call scheduled for the same day at 18:00 GR-Time. Conference Call details:
§ Greece: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800
§ UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5872
§ USA: +1 516 447 5632
§ France: +33 (0) 1 709 18711
§ Germany: +49 (0) 69 2222 4493
§ Italy: +39 06 452 36748
§ Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/lamdadevelopmentFY25.html
Noval Property (FY:25 results): The REIT reported an improved financial performance yoy assisted by investment program augmenting its RE property.
§ Rental income up 13% yoy to €37.8mn compared to €33.4m in 2024.
§ Adjusted EBITDA up 27% to €26.2mn (€20.6mn in 2024). Re revaluation gains at €20.2mn compared to €24.5mn in 2024.
§ Net income at €40.993mn, -13.3% yoy due to the increased financial expenses and lower yoy RE revaluation gains.
§ FFO at €18.3mn compared to €10.9mn a year earlier. FY:25 net dividend €0.07/share, +63% vs 2024 (€0.043/share)
§ GNAV at €693.6mn, up 7% yoy. NAV at €554.9mn (€4.39/share). Discount over NAV currently at 39%.
§ AGM: May 13. Ex-dividend date June 22. Dividend record date June 23. Dividend payment June 26. H1:26 results July 30.
|
NOVAL |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
33,417 |
37,788 |
13.1% |
|
EBITDA Adjusted |
20,582 |
26,200 |
27.3% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
61.6% |
69.3% |
+774 bps |
|
Net Income |
47,264 |
40,993 |
-13.3% |
|
Net Mrg |
141.4% |
108.5% |
-3,296 bps |
Other Results:
|
MERMEREN COMBINAT |
2024 |
2025 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
31,655 |
30,488 |
-3.7% |
|
EBITDA |
18,892 |
16,256 |
-14.0% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
59.7% |
53.3% |
-636 bps |
|
Net Income |
14,850 |
12,568 |
-15.4% |
|
Net Mrg |
46.9% |
41.2% |
-569 bps |
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