Beta Sec – Daily report 04.03.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

Boosted by the positive FY:24 results and three-year outlook, bank stocks took their index to a new nine-year high on Friday and assisted to a good rebound despite the decline recorded by most other stocks on the day. This brought an end to another month of gains, amounting to 3.77%, making it four months of gains in a row. Daily turnover soared on MSCI index rebalancing trades.

General index closed at 1,607.78 points, adding 0.62% to Thursday’s 1,597.85 points. On a weekly basis it declined 0.64%, snapping its nine-week growth streak. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.80%, ending at 3,942.39 points, though mid-caps contracted 0.06%. The banks index improved 2.07%, as Alpha jumped 5.84%, National earned 3.53%, Optima fetched 1.27% and Eurobank rose 0.12%, while Piraeus parted with 0.59%. In total 45 stocks registered gains, 50 sustained losses and 26 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €385.1m, up from Thursday’s €155.5m.

We expect tariff turbulence to impact domestic market and decelerate momentum. Banking sector in the spotlight after the conclusion of Q4:24 results announcements and business plans updates. 

Greece/PDMA: Tomorrow, the Hellenic Republic will auction 52 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity March 6, 2026. The amount to be auctioned is 500 million euro. Settlement date is March 7, 2025 (T+2). During the auction non – competitive bids can be submitted up to 20% of the auction amount. No additional non-competitive bids will be accepted on March 6, 2025. 

Greece/CPI: According to data announced by Eurostat, inflation fell to 3% in February, on an annual basis, from 3.1% in January. As for the Eurozone, inflation stood at 2.4% from 2.5% in January. This is a small decline, but the index is moving towards the European Central Bank’s target price of 2%. However, analysts expected a larger decline to 2.3%. Core inflation in the eurozone, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food prices, stood at 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.7%. As for 2025, BoG predicts that FY:25 CPI will settle at 2.5% and slightly over 2% in 2026 before advancing again 2.5% in 2027.

Greece/PPI:  According to ELSTAT, in January 2025, Producer Price Index (PPI) in industry (total of domestic and non-domestic market) recorded an increase of 0.3% y-o-y and 1.9% m-o-m. Main contributors in the domestic market were manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and preparations (+9.6% y-o-y) and manufacture of rubber and plastic products (+7.8% y-o-y) while the biggest changes in the non-domestic market were recorded in the sub-indices of manufacture of machinery and equipment (+10.8% y-o-y), manufacture of beverages (+9.8% y-o-y) and manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and preparations (+9.7% y-o-y). The average index for the 12-month period from Feb’24–Jan’25 decreased by 1.6% y-o-y. 

Piraeus Bank: Paulson stake currently at 13.62%.

PPC: PPC on Friday announced a 60% discount on rates for March, stating that the utility is “fully absorbing” further hikes in wholesale prices and supporting its customer base. The sizeable discount affects the “green” rate package offered by the ATHEX-listed utility, which for decades was the state-owned and managed power monopoly in the country. Following the application of the discount, the final price for the basic “green residential” rate package for March 2025 remains fixed at €0.1548/kWh. In addition, by applying a 68.7% discount, PPC said it is also keeping the price stable in new low-charge zones introduced as of Feb. 1, 2025. PPC’s “blue” rate package remains unchanged with a guaranteed fixed price of €0.145/kWh for 12 months, or at €0.142/kWh for myHomeOnline package.

Kri Kri: Stock reward program involving the distribution for free to personnel and executives of up to 661,302 shares for free (2% of share capital) in place. Shares will be purchased based on a share buy back program at a price range €3-€17/share and will be valid for 2 years.

Elvalhalcor (Results FY:24): Q4/FY:24 results out today after market hours. A conference call is scheduled tomorrow via webcast to discuss results. CC details: March 5th, 2025, at 15:00 GR-Time.

WEB: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_wj-AVEOXQ-uRj9C67TCvng#/registration

Bank of Greece: Results out today aftermarket hours; AGM on April 8; Ex-date April 24, payment April 30. 

Alpha Bank (Q4:24 results CC): Alpha Bank announced a satisfactory set of Q4:24 beating estimates thanks to higher trading and income (57.4m), lower impairments and better fees (+7% vs. our call). Payout accrual stands at €281m (43% vs. 20% in FY:23) which translates to 0.03 eur/share cash payout. Sale of Alpha Rom had a positive contribution of 92bps enhancing CET-1 to 16.3% Main points from the conference call are:

§   The bank is looking for potential target with RoE of at least 15% as it holds €1.4bn in excess capital. Buyouts will not affect shareholders’ remuneration.

§   Alpha Bank expects that interest rates will remain at 2.3% in 2025. The bank estimates that PE will reach €35.5 billion in 2025 and €41 billion in 2027

§   Regarding credit expansion, Alpha Bank’s management estimated that corporate lending will gradually expand beyond large groups to smaller companies.

§   Alpha Bank will reward its shareholders with €1.3 billion in the period 2025 – 2027, through cash dividends and share buybacks. The ratio will be 25/75, with the cash payments increasing gradually as the buy-back “supports” the share price.

§   2025-2027 Business Plan Targets: Alpha guides for 2025 adj. ROTE of c13.5% with payout no less than 50%. In the three-year horizon Alpha Bank will generate revenues of €7.2bn or >€3bn in regulatory capital. Profitability is expected at €0.85bn in FY:25 and gradually surpass the €1bn mark in FY:27 According to the new strategic plan, earnings per share are expected to exceed 0.42 eur/share by the end of 2027, while the cost-to-income ratio is expected to be further reduced to 37%. The following table summarise key business plan targets:

Alpha Bank is in our top pick list for FY:25 with TP of €2.25. Alpha Bank trades 0.66x its TBV at a significant discount vs. peers (0.94x). We see upside risks to our estimates as the bank announced plans and growth rates (acquisitions, credit expansion) which is not included to our forecast. 

NBG (Q4:24 results review): National Bank of Greece reported a strong set of Q4:24 results with core RoTE of 17.4%, on the back of resilient NII generation that dropped by 2% quarter-on-quarter driven by rates impact. Net fee and commission income increased by c. 6% vs Q4:24, on the back of the strong cross-selling of investment products coupled with the elevated lending fee growth especially deriving from the bank’s corporate book. CET1 ratio now at 18.6%, while the 50% payout out of the FY:24 profits was allocated by 35% in dividends and 15% in buybacks. Onwards NBG is targeting an increase in its payout ratio assumed in its business plan to c. 60% in FY25-27 that will also be supported by buybacks. In more details:

§   FY24 NII up by +4% y-o-y, reflects part of the impressive credit extension of 2024 (PEs >€3b y-o-y) and resilience to lower Euribor rates (-c100bps end 24 vs end 23). Q4:24 NII came -2% lower q-o-q, as rates impact precedes that of the pick-up in loan volumes towards the end of Q4:24.

§   Recurring OpEx up +5%2 y-o-y in FY:24 reflecting class leading investments in IT and increasing wages. C:CI ratio at 32%, well inside our FY:24 target of <33%.

§   Lack of net new NPE flows allowed further CoR normalization at just over 50bps; NPE stock drops below the €1b mark; NPE and S3 coverage at 98% and 56%.

§   CET1 at 18.3%, up by +0.5ppt y-o-y, despite absorbing payout accruals raised to 50% from 40% in 9M:24 and the sharp increase of credit RWAs, most of which in 4Q24; total capital ratio at 21.1%, up by +1ppt y-o-y. MREL ratio at 28.0% fulfils the final MREL target of 26.8% ahead of schedule.

§   Group performing loan balances surged to €33.6b in Dec24, up by a record-breaking +€3.1b y-o-y and +€2.2b q-o-q, far outperforming FY:24 credit expansion guidance of >€1.5b. During Q4:24 loan disbursements stood at €4.1bn vs €1.3bn in the previous quarter. Annually, disbursements amounted to €9.3bn, of which more than 80% were corporate new originations allocated across sectors, with an emphasis on energy, transportation, shipping, hotels, trade and light manufacturing.

§   Group deposits remained on an upward trend, up by +€0.5b y-o-y to €57.6b in Dec24, comprising c93% of our total net funding. In Greece, deposits were supported by inflows from retail customers absorbing time deposit switch to mutual funds and the reduction in corporate deposits due to working capital usage, while 80% of deposits are sight and savings accounts.

NBG trades 1.0x its TBV and has the best in class CET (18.6%) with strong capital generation capacity. Excess capital level provide flexibility in non-organic growth an option that NBG could visit in the near future.

2025-2027 Business Plan Targets: NIM remains at high levels of >280bps; NII >€2.3b in 2027, on robust credit growth of c8% 3Y CAGR and a dynamic balance sheet. Fee income to increase at a 3Y CAGR of >8% driven by non-lending fees and sustained strong results in cross selling including investment products  absorbing base rate normalization to c200bps. OpEx contained at a 3Y CAGR of c5% supporting growth and class-leading investments in IT and digital infrastructure; CoR to normalize <40bps; RoTE at a steady state >14% in 2027, or >18% on an internal CET1 target of 14%. The following table summarise business plan targets:

The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:

Noval Properties (FY:24 results): Noval held its FY:24 CC on Friday. Main points are:

§   GNAV at €648.3mn vs €571.2mn in 2023 (+13%); NAV at €519.1mn vs €91.7mn in 2023 9+21%). NAV / share at €4.11 vs an ASE closing price (27/02/2025) €2.5/ share (discount 39.2%).

§   FFO at €10.9mn vs €6.3mn in 2023 (+31%)

§   Gross yield at 7.3%, annualized gross rental income at €34.4mn (+14%)

§   Gross cash at €72.8mn from €74.6mn in 2023

§   Occupancy Rate 98.7%, LTV 31.8%, Net LTV 22.3%.

§   Rental income amounted to 33.4 million euros last year, compared to 29.3 million (an increase of 14%)

§   Adjusted EBITDA (ex-revaluation gains) €20.6mn vs €17.8mn in FY:23 (+16%)

§   RE revaluation gains at €24.497mn vs €47.640mn in FY:23

§   FY:24 DPS 0.043/share, DY 1.72%

§   CC highlights: In 2025, the REIT will complete investments totaling 114 million this year, in parallel with the completion of the major project of the redevelopment of the former industrial facilities of Viohalco on Piraeus Street, with a budget of 169 million euros. The new office building in Marousi will be completed by the end of May (investment of 34.5 million euros).

The mixed development (25% offices and 75% apartments) on Ardittou Street (investment 11.5 million) will be completed by the summer, and the reconstruction of the offices at Kifissias Avenue in Maroussi, towards the end of the year. Furthermore, the office complex The Grid in Maroussi will be delivered in the current year to its tenant, EY, which is being developed in collaboration with Brook Lane Capital (investment by Noval 55 million).

For the redevelopment on Piraeus Street, Noval is awaiting the issuance of the Presidential Decree (PD). Regarding the course of the real estate market in 2025, the management of REIC stated that it is optimistic, adding that the demand for office and logistics leases in high-end constructions continues to be greater than the supply.

Premia Propertis (FY:24 results): Premia announced its FY:24 on Friday. Main points are:

§   GNAV as of end 2024 stood at €497.8mn comprising 61 RE assets. Gross yield at 7.2% with WALT 9.9 years.

§   NAV at €197mn or €2.07/share (38.65% discount over NAV based on yesterday’s close of €1.27/share).

§   RE revaluation gains at €23mn in 2024 vs €2.3mn in FY:23. RE assets sales gains at €1.5mn vs €1.2mn in 2023

§   Adjusted EBITDA (ex-revaluation gains) at €14.1mn vs €12mn in 2023 (+17.5%).

§   Net Debt at €288.4mn with 61% of loans bearing fixed rate coupon 21% related to the 2 hotels in the portfolio, 8% related to RRF loans and 32% the listed bond loan. WALD 7.9 years and interest rate cost at 3.6%.

§   FFO at €4.1mn, Net LTV 57.9% (from 50.3%)

§   FY:25 guidance : sales €34-€35mn, Adjusted EBITDA €22-€23mn, CAPEX €50mn. 

 Other FY:24 results: 

MIG (FY:24 results): FY:24 net income includes €5.8mn one off positive capital gain from RKB subsidiary debt restructuring while in FY:23 net income included €10.59mn gain from ATTICA Group stake sale. NAV at €4.10/share vs €3.89/share in 2023.

 Euroxx (FY:24 results) 

 Mermeren Combinat (FY:24 results): Net Debt down 25.7% y-o-y to €39.396mn from €53.1mn in FY:23.

  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.