Beta Sec – Daily report 04-03-2026 – Market Monitor- Market Comment- In the Spotlight

• General index closed at 2,074.42 points, shedding 5.75% from Monday’s 2,200.98 points.  The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 5.83%, ending at 5,269.85 points. The banks index slumped 6.9% led by Alpha with losses of 8.3%, followed by Eurobank (-7.8%), Optima (-7.07%), National Bank (-6.7%), and Piraeus (-6.2%).

Away from financials Elvalhalcor hammered by 12.4%, Gekterna down 8.5%, Cenergy retreated 7.9% and Aegean lost 7.4%. In total seven stocks bucked the trend to show gains, 103 reported losses and six remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €679.6 million, sharply up from Monday’s €384.5mn.

¢     In the Spotlight 

Greece/PDMA: Today, the Hellenic Republic will auction 52 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity March 5, 2027. The amount to be auctioned is €400mn. Settlement date is March 6, 2026 (T+2). 

Greece/CPI: Inflation in Greece rose to 3% in Feb., up from 2.9% in Jan., according to preliminary Eurostat data. In the eurozone, inflation climbed to 1.9%, higher than Jan.’s 1.7%, defying expectations that it would remain stable. Among the main components, services posted the fastest annual growth at 3.4% in Feb., up from 3.2% in Jan. Food, alcohol, and tobacco remained steady at 2.6%, while non-energy industrial goods rose to 0.7% from 0.4%. Energy prices continued their decline, but at a slower pace, falling 3.2% compared with a 4.0% drop in Jan. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, increased to 2.4% from 2.2%, driven by faster-than-expected growth in service prices. 

Greece/Unemployment: The unemployment rate in Greece fell to 7.7% in January 2026, down from an upwardly revised 9.8% in January 2025 and an upwardly revised 7.9% in December 2025, the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) said on Tuesday. The number of unemployed people amounted to 369,146, marking a decrease of 92,711 compared with January 2025 (down 20.1%), and a decrease of 3,907 people compared with December 2025 (down 1%). 

Greece/Economic Sentiment Index: Economic sentiment in Greece showed signs of improvement in February, according to the latest report from the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE). The overall economic climate index rose to 107.7 points from 105.4 in January, reflecting stronger expectations across business sectors and a modest boost in consumer confidence. 

Qualco: Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership on March 2 announced a net short position of 0.50525% in Qualco. 

GekTerna: The company, in a filing to ASE, announced that it acquire Paulson’s stake in Athens Water (9.71%, ie 10,341,150 shares) through its subsidiary Urban Services SA for a total consideration of €103.4mn ie €10/share.

Note that Paulson owns 14.2% stake in Bank of Piraeus. 

Performance Technologies (financial calendar): FY:25 results on April 2. AGM on May 13. Ex-dividend date June 1. Dividend record date June 2. Dividend payment June 8. H1:26 results on September 15. 

Aegean Air: The company due to the ongoing developments in the Middle East, cancelled all flights to and from the airports of Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on dates till March 10. 

Bank of Cyprus (Investor’s Day 2026):  Bank of Cyprus held its Investor Day to present the 2026–2028 business plan, reaffirming its traditionally conservative strategic stance while highlighting strong execution since 2023. In details:

• The bank remains the #1 player in life insurance, #2 in non-life insurance, and #1 in payments in Cyprus, and has delivered all previously set targets: ROTE at 18.6%, payout at 70%, CET1 at 21%, and NPE ratio at 1.2%. Over the past three years, it generated 442 bps of organic capital per annum, distributed €705mn since dividend resumption in 2022, and achieved a 7% CAGR in tangible book value since 2020 net of distributions. Looking ahead, the bank targets mid-teens ROTE, ROTE above 20% on a 15% CET1 base, 350–400 bps annual organic capital generation, a 40% cost to income ratio, and maintains its 70% ordinary payout policy with potential 20–30% top up dividends.
• Profitability will be supported by domestic retail and corporate loan growth, selective international expansion, a stable low cost deposit base, recurring non NII exceeding 40% of revenues, and growing capital light insurance income. The loan book is expected to grow >5% y-o-y in 2026 and ~4% CAGR through 2028, with domestic loans growing ~3% CAGR and the international book rising from €1.4bn to ~€2bn.
• Deposits are expected to remain broadly flat at €22.2bn, with deposit costs staying among the lowest in Europe at 0.3%, versus peers at 0.4–0.7%. Recurring non NII is projected to grow at 4% CAGR, supported by high single digit insurance growth, while risk adjusted revenues remain strong at 9.1% of RWAs, well above Greek peers. The bank targets a medium term CET1 of ~15%, enabling organic growth, sustained distributions, optional additional returns, and disciplined bolt on M&A. NII, which closed 2025 at €720mn, is expected to grow at ~3% CAGR to 2028, with 2026 broadly flat.
• Asset quality remains robust, with the NPE ratio stable at 1.2%, normalized CoR at 40–50 bps, and continued REMU reduction supporting lower impairments. By 2026, distributable value increases further, supported by a €2.7bn tangible book, €4.1bn market cap, ROTE above 20%, and a 5–6x residual P/E, allowing payout ratios of up to 90% in 2026 and up to 100% in 2027–2028, while still maintaining capital above the 15% CET1 threshold worth 10–15% of current market cap.

Overall, the bank enters the next strategic cycle with ample capital flexibility, and a clear commitment to sustaining high profitability and shareholder returns. 

Noval: The REIT, one day after its FY:25 results announcement, provided guidance for 2026. FY:26 rental income to range between €41.5mn to €43.5mn, Adjusted EBITDA to settle between FO to come in between €20-€22mn. Recall that FYL25 results announced yesterday were as follows:

• Rental income was up 13% yoy to €37.8mn compared to €33.4mn in 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA was up 27% to €26.2mn (€20.6mn in 2024). Re revaluation gains at €20.2mn compared to €24.5mn in 2024.
• Net income at €40.993mn, -13.3% yoy due to the increased financial expenses and lower yoy RE revaluation gains.
• FFO at €18.3mn compared to €10.9mn a year earlier. FY:25 net dividend €0.07/share, +63% vs 2024 (€0.043/share)
• GNAV at €693.6mn, up 7% yoy. NAV at €554.9mn (€4.39/share). Discount over NAV currently at 39%.

OPAP (Q4/FY:25 CC): OPAP held yesterday its FY:25 CC stating that the recent approval from the Court of Auditors paves the way for the imminent signing of the 12-year concession for Hellenic Lotteries, with operations expected to begin in May. No updates have been provided regarding the extension of exclusive legacy game rights beyond 2030, although interest in renewing the license remains strong. A new draft bill aimed at tackling illegal betting is anticipated to support the sector in the coming years, subject to final legislation. Meanwhile, the increase in operating expenses in 4Q’25 is partly linked to ongoing digitalization initiatives across both retail and online operations, including team expansion and technology upgrades.

The market’s focus has now shifted toward the timeline and execution of the Group’s consolidation into a single entity. Following the completion of the business combination between OPAP and Allwyn, the newly formed entity is expected to distribute a dividend of €0.80 per share (Ex-dividend date before June 19). OPAP remains under review, and we will reassess our investment case once the full consolidation of Allwyn is completed and updated financial results (full set) are available. 

The following table summarize reported results:

Elvalhalcor (FY:25 results): The company posted a satisfactory FY:25 financial performance with H2:25 coming in weaker than H1 mainly in the copper segment due to tariffs and duties imposed by the USA (affecting exports) scrap supply disruptions, inflationary pressures and higher energy costs.

In details:

§   Volumes were up by 2.6% 600K compared to 585K in 2024. Turnover reached €3.614bn compared to €3.438bn a year earlier

§   Adjusted EBITDA settled 0.6% lower yoy to €236.040mn vs €237.463mn.  Adjusted EBITDA margin was down by 40bps to 6.5% compared to 6.9% in 2024. . Inventory gains amounted to €5.7mn compared to €6.2mn in 2024 bringing reported EBITDA at €226.1mn compared to €242.7mn in 2024, a 6.9% drop.

§   Net income was flat yoy to €103.437mn (€103.209mn in 2024) on lower financial expenses (on lower interest cost) and lower debt (gross debt at €659.2mn compared to €723.1mn in 2024)

§   Net debt came in 38.1mn lower that FY:24 at €605.348mn (€643.435mn).

§   OpCF retreated to €165.794mn compared to €263.13mn in 2024. Total CAPEX stood at €82.3mn, higher than 2024’s €68.1mn.

§   FY:25 gross dividend €0.11/share (€0.09 in 2024).

§   The aluminum segment delivered solid operating performance amid a challenging, volatile environment. Despite ongoing economic and geopolitical tensions, 2025 was a year of substantial growth, driven by an attractive improved mix, better conversion prices, and sales volume reaching 428K tones, up 3.4% vs 2024, especially in the packaging segment, both rigid and flexible. Despite higher energy costs, operational profitability (a-EBITDA) stood at €148.7mn, up 7.2% yoy. EBIT reached €94.1mn. H2:25 was marked by market disruption following the imposition of 50% import duties in the U.S., which affected global aluminum flows and demand, while sales were successfully reallocated to alternative regions and end markets. Aluminum scrap availability in Europe remained limited throughout the year, leading to higher prices and costs. Despite margin pressures from elevated scrap prices and tariff impacts, 2025 was a year of progress, especially for packaging, rigid and flexible, and the automotive sector, offsetting weaker demand in industrial and general engineering markets. Capex in the segment stood at €52.3mn and was directed to the hot rolling infrastructure at Elval’s facility and to equipment upgrades at both of Symetal’s foil facilities, enabling quality improvements for value-added flexible packaging solutions. Despite higher LME prices, the segment, through better WC management (5% improvement year-on-year) and strong EBITDA of €142mn, generated robust cash flow that comfortably covered the capital expenditure and contributed to the overall reduction in net debt.

§   Performance of the copper segment in 2025 was also resilient. Amid a challenging economic environment characterized by subdued demand across all sectors of the economy and trade tariffs, sales volume increased by 0.5% yoy. Revenue increased by 3.3% to €1,764.3mn in 2025, from €1,707.5mn in 2024, primarily on higher average LME copper prices. Volumes for extruded copper products (bus bars & rods) and copper tubes increased by 10.9% and 4.8%, respectively, supported by expanding data center activity and power network applications, particularly in USA. Despite trade tariffs affecting U.S. shipments in the second half of the year, full-year bus bar sales volume remained above 2024 levels. In contrast, flat-rolled products faced temporary challenges, with volume declining by 4.7% due to heightened competition. End markets showed a varied picture, with energy and power network volumes rising by 5.6%, and building and construction by 1.3%. Conversely, industrial applications declined by 9%, reflecting weaker manufacturing activity. Adj EBITDA amounted to €87.3mn, down from €98.7mn (-11.6%) in 2024, affected by high energy and overall inflationary costs and unfavorable sales mix. Accounting metal results declined to €5.8mn from €11.4mn in 2024, reducing EBIT to €62.7mn, compared to €83.2mn last year. EBT amounted to €51.2mn versus €58.2mn in 12Μ’24. The significant rise in LME prices in the last quarter of the year and the irregular supply of raw materials put pressure on the segment’s working capital and limiting any further improvement in the Group’s net debt. Capital expenditure for the year totaled to €29.1mn, with a focus on improving production flexibility, optimizing copper sourcing, and increasing the use of cost-efficient materials. Investments were also directed toward high-value markets, supporting the segment’s long-term strategy, with €18mn allocated to Sofia Med and €10.2mn to the parent company’s copper and alloys extrusion division.

§   Management guides for a cautiously optimistic 2026 outlook despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated energy costs that may continue to weigh on operational profitability alongside with recently emerged geopolitical risk. Structural fundamentals underpinning global demand remain robust, providing a solid foundation for medium to long-term growth. At the same time, ongoing supply constraints, intensifying competition, and volatility in LME prices may place additional pressure on working capital and debt levels. Disciplined cost control, and prudent WC and debt management will remain essential to maintaining a solid financial position and performance.

§   2026 ratios: PE 11x, EV/EBITDA 8.35x, DY: 3%. 

The following table summarizes Elvalhalcor’s FY:25 financial performance:

CC Details: Wednesday March 4 at 3pm local GR (Athens) Time

Web only access: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_GE78l3rIRieCU-g-rCCEgQ#/registration 

Lamda Development: FY:25 results today with the conference call scheduled for Thursday March 5^th at 18:00 GR-Time. Conference Call details:

§   Greece: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA: +1 516 447 5632

§   France: +33 (0) 1 709 18711

§   Germany: +49 (0) 69 2222 4493

§   Italy: +39 06 452 36748

§   Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/lamdadevelopmentFY25.html

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