¢ Market Comment
Rotation put non-financials in the spit light driving AthEx higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday, with some of them reaching or approaching historic highs, just as banks show some fatigue. The benchmark gained some more ground staying in touch with recent highs. More than a third of the day’s increased turnover concerned transactions of 5% of shares in GEK Terna between institutional investors.
General index closed at 1,834.94 points, adding 0.57% to Tuesday’s 1,824.48 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.72%, ending at 4,596.54 points. The banks index improved 0.45%, as Alpha advanced 0.72%, National fetched 0.69%, Piraeus collected 0.44% and Optima rose 0.10%. Eurobank stayed put. Metlen grabbed 2.77% and Athens International Airport climbed 2.18%, but Ellaktor gave up 2.01%. In total 67 stocks obtained gains, 52 took losses and 42 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €298.5m, up from Tuesday’s €179.2m.
All eyes on ECB interest rates verdict. Consensus forecasts ECB will cut its key deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.00% as Euro zone inflation eased below ECB’s target in May (1.9%). However, investors will focus on outlook and the possibility for another rate cut in 2025. Note that banking sector’s business plan are based on an average ECB rate of 2% and therefore outlook for the year may imply changes on H2:25 NII generation. We expect the market to keep a cautious stance ahead of the announcement yet rotation may provide some selective interest.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/PDMA: Greece on Wednesday successfully auctioned a 52-week Treasury bills issue, raising 500 million euros from the market at a lower interest rate. More specifically, the interest rate of the issue was set at 1.84%, down from 2.15% in the previous auction. Bids submitted totaled 854 million euros, 1.71 times more than the asked sum. The auction was open to the market’s primary dealers.
Greece/EU: The Commission assesses positively the progress in the implementation of Greece’s medium-term plan in the context of the European Semester Spring Package. The Commission specifically evaluated the progress made in the implementation of the medium-term plans submitted by 18 member states in autumn 2024.
For Greece, along with Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Sweden, and Estonia, the Commission evaluates their medium-term plans as being ‘in line with the recommended maximum increase in net expenditure, while taking into account the flexibility provided under the national escape clause, where applicable.’ According to the same assessment, Greece, along with Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Sweden, continues to face macroeconomic imbalances, as their vulnerabilities remain notably significant overall.
Greece/Economy: “The Greek economy remains strong,” the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says in its Economic Outlook report, predicting a growth rate of 2% for 2025 (from 2.3% by the government and the European Commission) and 2.1% for 2026 (from 2% and 2.2%). However, it has revised its previous forecast for the growth rate downwards, as well as for the global economy (2.9% this year and 2026) due to tariffs, while also sounding the alarm about investments after the Recovery Fund. Regarding the trade balance, the OECD pointed out that although Greece’s ties with the US are limited, US tariffs will indirectly burden exports, leading to a decrease in demand from the country’s main trading partners, such as Germany.
However, it predicts an increase in exports of goods and services by 2% this year (compared to an increase of 1% in 2024) and by 1.5% in 2026, as well as a reduction in the current account deficit from 6.5% of GDP in 2024 to 5.1% of GDP this year and 5% of GDP in 2026. This is because the increase in imports of goods and services is forecast to slow from 5.5% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025 and to 2.6% in 2026. The Recovery and Resilience Fund is at the heart of developments in the Greek economy, with the OECD predicting that disbursements will increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% of GDP in 2026. The increasing outflow of resources of the RRF will also boost investments, despite international uncertainty.
Piraeus Bank: Piraeus Bank has entered into a shareholders agreement with technology provider Qualco, for the development of a digital solutions platform, initially focusing on the mortgage sector. The platform will be developed and operated through a newly established company, which will be controlled by the Bank (51%) with Qualco maintaining a minority stake (49%).
Gek Terna: Reportedly c5% stake (5.22m shares) was placed yesterday from a private investor to institutional investors at €19.0. In other news ICAP reaffirmed the construction’s rating for its bonds at AA.
Jumbo (5m 2025 trading update): May 2025 sales up 12% on a consolidated elvel bringing ytd growth rate at +8%. Guidance for FY will be provided upon the completion of H1:25. The company decided to suspend its share buyback program and revert to its previous shareholders’’ remuneration scheme through cash distributions. To this context, BOD will propose to the upcoming AGM the distribution of €98mn (€0.5/share or €0.5063/share adjusted for the treasury stock). Total treasury at 1,694,198 shares or 1.25% of share capital. AGM on July 9. Ex-dividend date July 21. Dividend record date July 22. Dividend payment July 24. Greece was up 14% in May and 9.6% ytd. Cyprus advanced 14.5% in May and 8% in 5m 2025. Bulgaria came in +7% in May and +3% ytd. Romania was up 8% in May and 7% ytd.
Papoutsanis (presentation to institutional investors): Guidance for FY:28 calls for sales in excess of €100mn with further margin improvement supported by branded segment expansion. For 2025 the management dictated for double digit top (sales) and bottom line (net income) growth with net income further supported by reduced tax rate (as was the case in 2024) deriving from investment grants. Main growth pillars will be branded and hotel segment while Private Label reassures economies of scale in production. Sales will remain skewed on exports (55%-45% exports – domestic ratio currently).
Management did not rule out further expansion abroad through an acquisition, with both retail and production presence. Projected shareholders’ remuneration in 2025 €0.07/share (gross dividend out of which €0.03/share already distributed). Company eyes further USA penetration, currently at 9% of consolidated turnover. A placement by major shareholders constantly under investigation in order to improve free float but yet no decisions have been take. FY:25 CAPEX €4-€5mn. On our estimations, we project FY:24 sales 13% higher yoy to €74.8mn (+21% in Q1:25, €66.2mn in FY:24), EBITDA +14.1% to €12.1mn (16.2% EBITDA margin) and Net income €6.6mn, +25.2% yoy on 8.8% net income margin. For 2028 we have factored in sales of €99.2mn, a notch below guidance (€100mn). Remains Overweight with TP €3.85/share. FY:25 PE 11.7x, EV/EBITDA 7.9x
Metlen: The group announced on Wednesday it has signed a non-binding agreement to enter the process of the acquisition of a 75% stake in the Bulgarian energy trading business of Most Energy JSC. Renewable assets and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) projects of Most Energy are not part of the acquisition.
Most Energy is an energy trading company, headquartered in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia. It serves 897 industrial and commercial high-consuming customers (Β2Β) and acts as an aggregator for 143 customers. Through this acquisition, Metlen aims to obtain a reliable operational platform in Bulgaria, which will facilitate an expansion of the company’s current customer base, while enhancing its physical presence in the country. The agreement is part of Metlen’s wider strategic plan, which aims towards the expansion of its B2B portfolio, as well as of the supply of energy in southeast Europe.
Metlen will offer its customers supply solutions with integrated risk mitigation tools, thereby securing predictability, competitiveness and energy flexibility. Furthermore, through Most Energy’s operation as an aggregator, Melten will strengthen its place in the region, as it will be managing third parties’ and proprietary RES units portfolios.
In other news AGM cleared FY:24 gross dividend distribution €1.5/share. Ex-dividend date June 26. Dividend record date June 27. Payment July 2.
NBG: Share buyback program initiated. Maximum purchase of 3.8% of share capital (34.8mn shares) for the next 12 months.
ACAG: Major shareholder Mr. Lykos bought on June 3, 9,843 shares at €5.3218/share.
General Commercial: AGM approved FY:24 gross dividend €0.075/share.
Ideal Holdings: Rights issue of 8mn shares to run between June 11 to June 13. Rights issue price €5.8-€6.10 to be finalized through a book building process. Ex-date June 6. 2.4mn shares to be allocated with priority to existing shareholders.
¢ Buybacks
στο Google News και μάθετε πρώτοι όλες τις ειδήσεις
