Market Comment
AthEx may follow European markets which are expected to extend yesterday’s gains at the opening phase as trade tensions seems to de-escalate. Positive news-flow from corporates (Results, outlook, deals) may keep interest high as it is highlighted in turnover.
Bolstered mainly by major European markets AthEx enjoyed a session of strong gains on Wednesday that took its benchmark to a fresh 14-year high and its banks index to levels unseen since November 2015.
The roller coaster of geopolitical developments and the global trade war is keeping investors on edge, with securities internationally turning particularly volatile since the start of this year, a factor that appears to have benefited the local bourse to date.
General index closed at 1,630.35 points, adding 1.76% to Tuesday’s 1,602.15 points. This was the best close since March 14, 2011, when AthEx had stopped at 1,662.38 points pushing ytd gains at +10.93%. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 2.12%, ending at 4,014.44 points.
The banks index soared 3.31%, as Eurobank jumped 4.49%, Piraeus grabbed 3.98%, National advanced 3.02%, Alpha fetched 1.77% and Optima climbed 1.41%. Cenergy rose 5.03% and Metlen earned 4.87%.
In total 85 stocks secured gains, 43 endured losses and 33 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €373.9m thanks to increasing activity in block trades, up from Tuesday’s €302.6m.
¢ In the Spotlight
ECB: The European Central Bank looks set to implement a 25 basis point rate cut today bringing the rate down to 2.50%. This would mark another step in the ECB’s easing cycle as it attempts to provide stimulus to the struggling eurozone economy.
Greece/PDMA: During the auction of €500mn of 52W T-Bills conducted today, the total bids reached €934 mn and the amount finally accepted was €600mn. No additional non-competitive bids will be accepted on March 6, 2025. Settlement date is March 7, 2025. Coverage stood at 1.87x (1.91x in the previous auction on December 4, 2024) and coupon shaped at 2.15% vs 2.27% previously.
Athens Medical: FY:24 results April 30. AGM June 27. H1:25 results September 30. No dividend for 2024 fiscal year.
Ellaktor: €0.5/share capital return record date March 24. Capital return record date March 26. Capital return payment March 28.
Attica Holding: The domestic ferry operator sold its Crete II vessel for €3.6mn recording a capital gain of €0.2mn.
Eurobank: Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission approved on March 5 the Takeover Bid Document and authorised its publication regarding the submission of a mandatory takeover bid for the acquisition of up to 100% of the issued share capital of Hellenic Bank Public Company Limited. Eurobank already holds 385,847,001 shares, representing 93.47% of the issued share capital of Hellenic Bank. The consideration offered to the shareholders of Hellenic Bank who will accept the Takeover Bid is €4.843 per share paid in cash.
The consideration of €4.843 per share is at a premium of 46.23% over the average closing price for the 12 months preceding the announcement of the Takeover Bid. Moreover, the consideration offered is at a premium of 5.88% compared to the net asset value per share of Hellenic Bank based on the preliminary financial results for the year ended 31 December 2024. The Acceptance Period of the Takeover Bid for the shareholders of Hellenic Bank commences on 11th March 2025 and ends on 9th April 2025.
Banking Sector: The weighted average interest rates on new deposits remained unchanged at 0.45% in January 2025, while the corresponding rate of loans decreased to 5.10%, according to the Bank of Greece. The interest rate spread between new deposits and loans fell to 4.65 percentage points, it added.
The weighted average interest rate on outstanding amounts of deposits remained unchanged at 0.49% in January, while the corresponding rate on loans dropped to 5.34% and the interest rate spread between outstanding amounts of deposits and loans dropped to 4.85 percentage points. In the same period, the weighted average interest rate on new deposits remained unchanged at 0.45% compared with the previous month.
Optima Bank (FY/Q4:24 results): Optima bank announced a solid set of results posting FY:24 net profit of €140.2m (+36% y-o-y) entirely from organic performance. Optima posted a remarkable RoTE reaching 25.3%, the best amongst Greek banks. On our estimates the bank could distribute 0.54 eur/share dividend following FY:24 guidance for 30% payout. In more details:
§ NII grew 34% to €189.9mn, while fees grew 29% to 41.3mn. Fee income accelerated in Q4 as we continue tapping on loan book growth and the growth of total assets under management, which in 2024 grew 25% and now stand at €4.2bn. NIM stood at 4.04% vs 4.39% in FY 2023, mainly due to the fall of the 3m Euribor.
§ Operating expenses were 2% higher YoY at €57.9mn. Staff costs were 7% higher y-o-y, while G&A costs were 12% lower y-o-y.
§ Cost to core income (adj.) fell to 25.6% from 29.3% in FY:23
§ Cost of risk stood at 67bps compared to 48bps in the same period last year.
§ Gross loans stood at €3.7bn, an increase of 49% compared to 12M 2023; New disbursements in FY:24 stood at €2.8bn compared to €2.0bn in the same period last year, with the overwhelming majority being corporate loans; Deposits grew 45% y-o-y and 12% q-o-q at €4.6bn.
§ The NPE/NPL ratios remained at an industry low level of 0.85% and 0.43%. NPE coverage, including collaterals stood at 197%.
§ CET1 and Total Capital ratio, on a phased in basis, stood at 14.4%, above the regulatory minimum threshold.
§ Tangible Equity at €609m (8.25 eur/share), shares trading at 1.74x P/TBV.
§ FY 2025 guidance: Optima is expecting more that 160mn net profit implying a growth of at least 14% on the back 27% y-o-y increase in Net loan balances to grow (or ~€1bn), deposits up by ~€1.25bn (~27% y-o-y). At the same time NPEs should remain below 1.5% and Cost to Core Income will shape below 30%.
More at 18:00 GR/16:00 UK at the conference call with the CEO.
The following table summarise reported results:
|
Optima |
Act. |
Act. |
Act. |
Overview |
|
|
(In Million Euro) |
4Q23 |
3Q24 |
4Q24 |
QoQ |
YoY |
|
NII |
43.3 |
49.6 |
48.8 |
-1.7% |
12.7% |
|
Fee income |
9.6 |
10.1 |
12.1 |
18.8% |
26.0% |
|
Trading |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2.1% |
-18.0% |
|
Other Income |
4 |
6 |
5 |
-15.9% |
24.7% |
|
Total income |
58 |
62 |
67 |
6.8% |
15.2% |
|
Operating costs |
-18 |
-15 |
-17 |
15.1% |
9.4% |
|
Pre-provision-profits |
39 |
51 |
50 |
-1.9% |
26.7% |
|
Core PPI |
34 |
45 |
44 |
-2.5% |
28.3% |
|
Provisions |
-1 |
-4 |
-10 |
174.8% |
-722.7% |
|
PBT |
38 |
48 |
40 |
-17.1% |
5.4% |
|
Corporate taxes |
7 |
9 |
8 |
-10.5% |
15.1% |
|
Net profit (continued) |
31 |
39 |
32 |
-18.7% |
3.1% |
CC Details: 06/03 18:00 GR-time
§ GR +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000
§ UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ UK & Intl+44 (0) 203 059 5872
§ US +1 516 447 5632
§ WEB https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/optimabank250306.html
Elval Halcor (CC highlights): WC/Sales ratio will most probably rise from the low 16% of 2024 in round 19%-20% in 2025. Volumes evolvement in 2025 similar to 2024 (mid-single digit overall growth).
Net Debt/A-EBITDA long term target of 3x (or below) allows for similar shareholders’ remuneration going forward beating in mind low CAPEX needs going forward. End of Ukraine war will benefit Elval as Russia used to be its main aluminum provider.
War ending will also cater for lower energy prices going forward. Same dividend police all things equal going forward (30% payout). FY:25 PE 6.75x, FY:24 EV/EBITDA 5.9x.
|
Elval Halcor |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
Q4 |
Q4 |
(%) |
|
Sales |
3,293,421 |
3,438,452 |
4.4% |
738,561 |
847,995 |
14.8% |
|
EBITDA |
176,930 |
242,675 |
37.2% |
32,113 |
69,467 |
116.3% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
5.4% |
7.1% |
+169 bps |
4.3% |
8.2% |
+384 bps |
|
Net Income |
28,498 |
103,209 |
262.2% |
-4,859 |
32,285 |
764.4% |
|
Net Mrg |
0.9% |
3.0% |
+214 bps |
-0.7% |
3.8% |
+447 bps |
AIA (February traffic stats): During February 2025, the airport’s passenger traffic amounted to 1.75 million, i.e. 8.9% above February 2024, a year with February counting 29 days as 2024 was a leap year. Domestic and international passengers surpassed the 2024 levels by 2.3% and 11.9%, respectively.
Overall, during the first two months of 2025, the airport’s passenger traffic reached 3.59 million, above the 2024 levels by 11.7%. Analytically, domestic and international passengers surpassed the 2024 levels by 3.6% and 15.3%, respectively.
Number of flights during the first two months of 2025 amounted to 31,832, i.e. 8.2% above the respective 2024 levels. Domestic flights saw a small decline at the level of 2.1%, while international flights were above the 2024 volumes by 15.6%.
Ideal Holdings (FY:24 results Conf. Call): The company signed on March 4 an agreement with Oak Hill Advisors (OHA) to form a partnership with and invest in IDEAL Holdings’ subsidiaries. OHA is a UK regulated entity, part of the global investment firm, Oak Hill Advisors, which has approximately US$ 88 billion of assets under management.
Under the agreement, IDEAL Holdings will create a corporate vehicle (CV) which will hold 100% of IDEAL Holdings investments and more specifically: (i) Attica Department Stores (ADS), (ii) Byte, Adacom, Bluestream (ICT) (iii) Barba Stathis (upon completion of the acquisition).
The CV will have an equity value of €410m (debt free) and OHA will acquire 15% for a cash contribution of ca. €62m, while additionally OHA will maintain the option to acquire within six months, by further investing in the CV, an additional 10% for a cash consideration of ca. €41m.
Following the conclusion of its investment in the CV, OHA intends also to invest in IDEAL Holdings, acquiring up to 4% of the share capital, subject to availability of IDEAL Holdings’ offered shares and if not available shares for sale then the available that time treasury shares. OHA, through the CV, will also have the right to co-invest with IDEAL Holdings, as a minority investor, an additional €200m over the next 2 years, to support Ideal’s growth plans.
As it derives from the components of the pertained transactions, no change of control will occur in IDEAL Holdings, as a result of implementing the agreement with OHA. Completion of the transaction is expected in H2 2025 and is subject to customary closing conditions and approvals.
|
Ideal comparable |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
309,100 |
380,300 |
23.0% |
|
EBITDA |
34,000 |
39,300 |
15.6% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
11.0% |
10.3% |
-67 bps |
|
EBT |
21,600 |
23,900 |
10.6% |
|
EBT Mrg |
7.0% |
6.3% |
-70 bps |
|
Ideal reported |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
181,500 |
374,200 |
106.2% |
|
EBITDA |
23,400 |
50,000 |
113.7% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
12.9% |
13.4% |
+47 bps |
|
Net Income |
16,900 |
92,200 |
445.6% |
|
Net Mrg |
9.3% |
24.6% |
+1,533 bps |
Cenergy (FY:24 results): Cenergy reported yesterday another satisfactory set of FY:24 performance with both steel and to a much wider extent cable segments adding to performance. In more details:
§ Revenue stood at EUR 1.80bn, +10% y-o-y. 68% of revenues comes from the cables segment (€1.224bn) with the remaining €573mn (32%) from the steel pipes unit.
§ Revenue for the cables segment reached EUR 1,224mn (+17% y-o-y), with growth being driven by the projects’ business, as already mentioned (+57% revenue growth y-o-y). Adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 179.4mn (+19% a-EBITDA growth y-o-y) with margins at 14.7%, 31bps higher compared to 2023. These two factors were the main drivers of higher profitability of the segment. On the cables products front, solid demand helped the business unit to maintain satisfactory margins. Hellenic Cables secured over EUR 1 billion of new orders split between one-off projects and longer-term framework contracts. As a result, the order backlog of the segment surpassed the EUR 3 billion threshold by 31 December 2024, its highest level ever.
§ Steel pipes turnover rose again over EUR 570mn while adjusted EBITDA increased substantially to EUR 94mn (+46% y-o-y). Such profitability was the result of higher production volumes, higher margin project mix and high-capacity utilization. Steadily, high-energy prices and the need for alternative natural gas routes kept the demand for pipelines going, with several projects being revived and hastily pushed to execution phase.
§ Adjusted EBITDA at €272mn, +27% y-o-y, courtesy of the record-high 16.4% margin for the steel pipes segment while cables also grow their already solid margins. 34% of A-EITDA from steel pipes (€93.8mn) and €179.4mn (66%) from cables.
§ Reported EBITDA at €276.228mn, +38.6% vs FY:23 (€199.228mn). The improved project mix in the steel pipes segment, along with a greater contribution of cables projects to total revenue, led to a significant boost in adjusted EBITDA margins in both reported and adjusted EBITDA. Q4:@4 EBITDA margins close to 15% (14.8%).
§ Net income landed 91.1% higher to €139.4mn vs €72.958mn a year earlier (2023).
§ Net Debt at €152.219mn, down 59.7% y-o-y (€378mn in 2023), with Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA ratio below 1 (0.55x).
§ FY:24 CAPEX €259mn (€138mn in 2023) of which €217mn in cables and €41mn in steel pipes.
§ Negative WC at -€6mn with WC decreasing by 119mn y-o-y due to the timing of significant milestone payments from customers at year-end and improved payment terms in the upstream supply chain.
§ FCF at €48mn.
§ Backlog currently at €3.44bn out of which €430mn in steel pipes with the remainder in cables (€3.01bn)
§ FY:24 gross div €0.14/share at the AGM on May 27, DY 1.5%. Ex-div date June 24. Div record date June 25, div payment June 26.
§ FY:25 guidance calls for Adjusted EBITDA in the tune of €300-€330mn. WC to return to normalized levels of 6-9% over sales.
§ FY:25 PE 11.7x, FY:24 EV/EBITDA 9.3x.
CC March 6 at 3pm GR time at https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_RZLyb_unRdOCNIU40Iu5CA
|
CENERGY |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
Q4 |
Q4 |
(%) |
|
Sales |
1,627,724 |
1,796,448 |
10.4% |
458,068 |
536,221 |
17.1% |
|
EBITDA |
199,228 |
276,228 |
38.6% |
62,473 |
79,374 |
27.1% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
12.2% |
15.4% |
+314 bps |
13.6% |
14.8% |
+116 bps |
|
Net Income |
72,958 |
139,400 |
91.1% |
25,800 |
39,135 |
51.7% |
|
Net Mrg |
4.5% |
7.8% |
+328 bps |
5.6% |
7.3% |
+167 bps |
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