Beta Sec – Daily report 07.05.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight

Profit taking dominated the market as investors held a cautious stance ahead of major earnings announcements and FED meeting. In Wall Street US stocks snapped a nine-day winning streak as renewed tariff rhetoric overshadowed strong economic data. President Trump’s threat of new tariffs—including a 100% levy on foreign films and potential duties on pharmaceuticals “in the next two weeks”—and his lack of engagement with China’s President Xi have cast doubt on further de-escalation, which puts the recent stock rally in US and Europe on pause.

General index closed at 1,716.22 points, shedding 0.87% from Monday’s 1,731.36 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 1.04%, ending at 4,240.31 points. The banks index declined 2.05%, on National sliding 3.18%, Eurobank falling 2.53%, Piraeus giving up 1.09% and Alpha parting with 0.94%. Ellaktor decreased 2.84%, Metlen shrank 1.61% and ElvalHalcor lost 1.58%, while Titan Cement improved 1.12%. In total 38 stocks secured gains, 81 endured losses and 31 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €129.8m, up from Monday’s €98.7m.

Consolidation pattern seems the likely scenario for the day as investors are more focusing on FED’s announcements and comments tonight. 

Opap: The company trades today ex FY:24 gross remaining dividend €0.8/share, net €0.76/share, payable on May 15.

Briq Properties: The listed REIT trades today ex FY:24 net dividend €0.135/share. Scrip dividend option available.

PPC: The Group announced that it progresses with the 2nd phase of its 490M solar park construction in its old lignite premises in Peloponnesus 9Megalopoli). PPC has already initiated the 1st phase of construction involving 125MWs while another 125MWs will soon start construction.

The construction of the remaining 240 MWS is expected somewhere within 2026. In total, PPC Renewables will construct 540 MW of photovoltaics in the region a s 50 MW are already in operation. The estimated annual generation of the 490 MW plant stands at 860 GWh – covering the energy needs of 215,000 households – preventing the emission of 430,000 tons of CO2 annually.

According to its three-year strategic plan, in the period 2025-2027, the PPC Group will develop an additional 5.6 GW of RES in Greece and the wider region of Southeastern Europe, with the aim of increasing its installed capacity from RES to 11.8 GW by 2027. The PPC Group currently owns a total portfolio of RES projects with an installed capacity of 6.2 GW in Greece, Romania, Italy, and Bulgaria. Q1:25 results on May 20 

AIA: During April 2025, the airport’s passenger traffic amounted to 2.71 million, 9.0% higher than April 2024. Domestic and international passengers surpassed the 2024 levels by 6.6% and 10.0%, respectively coming in at 732.8K and 1.98mn. Overall, during the first four months of 2025, the airport’s passenger traffic reached 8.52 million, above the 2024 levels by 10.6%.

Analytically, domestic and international passengers surpassed the 2024 levels by 4.1% and 13.3%, respectively. AIA’s number of flights during the first four months of 2025 amounted to 73,151, i.e. 8.5% above the respective 2024 levels. Both domestic flights and international flights were above the 2024 volumes by 1.3% and 13.2%, respectively. For April, domestic flights were up 5.7% and international by 7.1% to 8,579 and 13,921. 

Qualco: HCMC approved the company’s information memorandum regarding its listing on the ASE. IPO through book building to take place between May 7 to May 9. IPO price range €5.04-€5.46. IPO price to be set on May 9. Trading to commence on May 15. Total issue proceeds €98.3mn with a green show of 15% available (2.7mn additional shares).

IPO proceeds at €57.3mn through the issue of new shares (10.5mn new shares) and €41mn through the sale of existing shares (7.5mn) totaling €98mn. Cornerstone investors include Latsco (3.4mn shares at €5.46 – €18.5mn commitment), Antenna Group (3.4mn shares at €5.46, €18.5mn) and Green Hydepark (1.785mn shares at €5.46, €9.7mn value). 

Metlen: Reportedly the company is undertaken a 7-year contract from the Greek Army for the delivery of 288 armed vehicles in Volos. 

Real Consulting: EGM approved the company’s listing on the ASE main market from the Alternative that it currently trades. The procedure will be completed by July 2025.

Jumbo: Reportedly Fox Group (official franchisee of Jumbo in Israel) announced the signing of an agreement for the establishment and operation of Jumbo stores in Canada. The first agreement period is for 12 years starting from the opening of the first store, with the possibility of extension by agreement of the parties for an additional 10 years starting 10 years after the opening of the first store.

The purchase of products will be from Jumbo, except for a certain percentage of purchases that was excluded, which the company will be entitled to purchase directly from other suppliers, including local suppliers, as regulated in the agreement.

Fais Group: AGM on May 27 to approve FY:24 dividend (gross) €0.04/share.

Noval: AGM May 27. FY:24 dividend (net) €0.043/share

Piraeus Bank (Q1:25 review): Piraeus Bank announced net profits of €284m in line with our estimates. Q1:25 RoTE came in at 14.7% (post-AT1) posting a solid start for the year and in accordance to annual guidance for net profits of €1.1bn. NII came in at €481m, down 6% q-o-q on the back of lower loan yields—following ECB rate cuts which were partially offset by loan growth and repricing of time deposits (1.93%, -9bps q-o-q). /in More details:

§   Net interest income reached €481m (-6% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y). NIM dropped by 16bps q-o-q to 2.44%. Fee income was shaped at €159.7m (-5% q-o-q, +10% y-o-y). Trading and non-recurring revenues reached €8.8m. Staff costs rose 9% y-o-y to €99m, including higher variable compensation, with Group headcount down 2% y-o-y. G&A expenses reached €94m (+28% y-o-y), impacted by front-loaded property tax accruals, launch costs for Snappi, and expenses related to the Ethniki Asfalistiki acquisition SPA. C/I ratio stood at 35%.

§   Loan impairment charges remained at a historically low €15m in Q1:25, broadly flat both q-o-q and y-o-y, reflecting strong organic NPE containment. Organic CoR (incl. servicing fees) declined to a record low of 35bps, vs. 41bps in Q4:24 and 51bps in Q1:24.

§   NPE ratio remained unchanged q-o-q at 2.6% (vs. 3.5% in Q1’24), supported by disciplined organic management. NPE coverage stood at 64% (+4ppt y-o-y, -0.5ppt q-o-q), while total NPEs stood at €1.1bn at end-March, down €170m y-o-y but slightly higher q-o-q by €29m.

§   The performing loan book rose by 3% q-o-q and 16% y-o-y to €34.8bn, with net credit expansion of €1.1bn in Q1:25 (vs. a full-year target of €2.3bn), driven by strong big corporates lending.

§   Customer deposits stood at €61.4bn as of March-end, up 5% y-o-y but down 2% q-o-q on seasonality.

§   CET1 ratio came in at 14.2% (vs. 14.5% in Q4:24 and 13.6% in Q1:24), absorbing the 50% dividend accrual, €90mn DTC amortisation, c€1bn loan growth, and Basel IV implementation.

§   In the conference call management reaffirmed its FY:25 targets, (i.e EPS of €0.80, RoTBV of 14%, NII of €1.9bn, and credit expansion of €2.3bn) despite the rate sensitivity to cuts rising to €30m per 25bps (vs €25mn previously).

The increase is primarily linked to stronger-than-anticipated loan growth, with management noting that the deposit repricing floor has not yet been reached, implying that funding cost pressure will gradually ease, helping to mitigate the drag from falling rates.

• Fee income guidance was upgraded to €650m (from €600m), following strong Q1:25 performance and progress toward FY AuM targets. With regards to Snappi expenses came in at €5m in Q1 and are expected to remain at similar levels.

Piraeus trades 0.8x its TBV, top pick for 2025 with TP €5.95.

The following table summarise results vs. our Q1:25 estimates:

Titan (Q1:25 results preview): Titan is set to announce Q1:25 results tomorrow before the opening while a conference call is scheduled at 16:00. Consensus estimate forecasts Turnover of €628m (+0.8% y-o-y), EBITDA of €114.2m (+4% y-o-y) and Net Profit of €51.0m (-2.7% y-o-y).

• Greece is expected to post a solid performance courtesy of strong domestic demand and exports.  On the flip side SE Europe had a soft quarter on the back of adverse weather conditions and rising energy costs. In Egypt and Turkey increased demand point to an improved quarter with increased volumes and margins.

With regards to US Titan Cement International’s American-listed subsidiary released its Q1 results on Monday. Revenue declined by 2% year-over-year to $392m, primarily due to reduced volumes caused by unfavorable weather conditions in January and February. Despite this, strong pricing and effective cost management boosted the EBITDA margin by 248 basis points, resulting in a 12% increase in EBITDA to $80m. Net income rose by 13% y-o-y, reaching $33m.

• Q1:25 saw declines in the volumes of cement, ready-mix, and blocks by 7%, 2.2%, and 11.9%, respectively, impacted by adverse weather and a sluggish residential market. However, aggregate volumes grew by 23.6%, driven by capacity investments in Florida and robust infrastructure projects. Pricing remained solid across all product categories. Titan America reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth and a slight improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin.

The company noted that the second half of the year would be stronger due to planned maintenance at the Pennsuco plant in April, which is anticipated to impact EBITDA by $8m. During the analyst call, management indicated that weather conditions had improved in March, leading to stronger demand momentum that continued into April. Regarding Trump’s tariffs, the company does not anticipate any impact until May 27.

• After that date, they are in “wait-and-see” stance, but if a 10% tariff is applied, it could result in an $8m impact on margins for FY25, assuming there are no adjustments to price or volume.

Focus on updated outlook and demand trends in major geographies.

As a final note the company will propose to tomorrow’s AGM a 3.00eur/share dividend with ex-date on June 30.

The following table summarise consensus estimates:

CC Details: Thursday 08-05, 16:00 GR-Time

§   GR: +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5873

§   USA: +1 516 447 5632

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