Market Comment
Time for a respite: Severe technical oversold and sharp declines across the board along with strong recovery in Asian markets after Monday’s crash point to a bounce. Futures for U.S. and European markets also point to positive opening. We expect however volatility to persist, investors will keep tracking Wall Street fluctuations and any related comments to tariffs and geopolitical events as environment remains particularly fragile.
AthEx followed European and Asian markets sell-off yesterday suffering its biggest daily losses since the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020. The aggravation of the international trade war waged by US President Donald Trump inflicted losses on almost all stocks, with those with foreign investors – like banks – being the worst hit, on what could easily be described as a “Black Monday” for the markets. Almost all of the benchmark’s gains this year have been wiped out.
General index closed at 1,478.92 points, shedding 7.43% from Friday’s 1,597.55 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 7.72%, ending at 3,620.66 points. The banks index dropped 8.87%, as Optima fell 14.98%, Alpha lost 10.10%, Eurobank parted with 10%, Piraeus eased 9.33% and National gave up 6.29%. In total, just seven stocks secured gains, 112 suffered losses and 27 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 400.5 million euros, down from last Friday’s €412.2m.
¢ In the Spotlight
Market reaction after heavy losses (T+1, T+30)
|
Date |
Daily loss |
T+1 |
T+30 |
|
03/08/2015 |
-16.23% |
-1.22% |
-2.02% |
|
24/06/2016 |
-13.42% |
-2.89% |
8.75% |
|
09/03/2020 |
-13.39% |
5.93% |
-3.34% |
|
09/12/2014 |
-12.78% |
-1.01% |
-12.77% |
|
16/03/2020 |
-12.24% |
1.56% |
23.34% |
|
24/08/2015 |
-10.54% |
9.38% |
7.42% |
|
24/10/2008 |
-9.71% |
4.04% |
3.70% |
|
28/01/2015 |
-9.24% |
3.16% |
20.02% |
|
17/04/2000 |
-9.17% |
-2.78% |
19.02% |
|
24/02/2020 |
-8.36% |
2.62% |
-31.24% |
|
08/02/2016 |
-7.87% |
-2.89% |
22.57% |
|
12/09/2001 |
-7.74% |
0.77% |
-4.89% |
|
01/04/1999 |
-7.55% |
5.83% |
15.22% |
|
07/04/2025 |
-7.43% |
|
|
|
11/12/2014 |
-7.35% |
-0.42% |
-1.88% |
Mevaco: The company took over the construction of the roof top of the new Lamda’s shopping mall in the Hellinikon project, namely the Riviera Galleria shopping mall with a total budget of €10.45mn and completion in July 2026.
Dimand: During the annual company’s presentation to the institutional investor, CEO Mr. Andriopoulos stated the company’s intention to commence dividend distribution from 2026 onwards, ie for FY:25 fiscal year. Company’s gross cash at FY:24 stood at €38.265mn. NAV as of end 2027, is expected to approach or even exceed 2022 post IPO market CAP ie €283mn compared to €180mn in FY:24 and current market cap of €153.552mn. 5 new projects underway, to beef results and figures post 2028, when the current 12 projects pipeline will have been completed. The 5 new projects will sum to a GDV in excess of €1bn by the end of their completion after 2030.
Aegean Air: AGM on April 29 to greenlight FY:24 gross dividend distribution €0.8/share. The company bought 8 of its outstanding bonds at par value (100) as of April 4. Total treasury bonds, that will be cancelled stand at 90bonds or 0.045% of the issue.
Metlen: METLEN has entered into an exclusive partnership with KNDS France for the production of the French latest generation of 8×8 Infantry Fighting armoured Vehicle, VBCI PHILOCTETES, marking a significant milestone in European defence industrial cooperation. The agreement is designed to meet the Hellenic Army’s operational requirement for a large number of 8×8 infantry fighting vehicles as well as that of other European armies. By locating key manufacturing and maintenance operations within Greece, the partnership enhances equipment availability. This dynamic also reflects the beneficial trickle-down effect to the Greek industry and strengthens the Franco-Greek defence relationship.
Hellenic Exchanges: FTSE Russell interim review verdict on potential domestic market status upgrade to developed from emerging out today. FTSE is expected to provide a date for the reinstatement of the ATHEX in Developed Markets following ASE placement in watch list for upgrade late in 2024.
AIA (March Traffic Stats): During March 2025, the airport’s passenger traffic amounted to 2.22 million, i.e. 10.8% above March 2024. Domestic and international passengers surpassed the 2024 levels by 2.1% and 14.4%, respectively. Overall, during the first three months of 2025, the airport’s passenger traffic reached 5.81 million, above the 2024 levels by 11.4%. Analytically, domestic and international passengers surpassed the 2024 levels by 3.1% and 15.0%, respectively. Athens International Airport’s number of flights during the first three months of 2025 amounted to 50,651, i.e. 9.3% above the respective 2024 levels. Domestic flights were marginally below the 2024 levels by 0.5%, while international flights were above the 2024 volumes by 16.1%.
GEK TERNA/MOH: Reportedly discussions between GEK TERNA and MOH with the purpose of merging their electricity retail/thermal activities are progressing well, with a Shareholders Agreement being currently drafted. We note that a potential merger would lead to a combined market share of >16% and the operation of 3 CCGT plants (100% in 2 plants including the new 877 MW plant and 35% in Korinthos plant)
In other related news to GEK, the JV of TERNA (construction arm of GEK TERNA) and REDEX (Copelouzos Group) has been awarded the contract for two projects at Athens International Airport (AIA), concerning: i) the development of a multi-story car park, and ii) the construction of additional aircraft parking areas. The first project, budgeted at EUR 88m, includes the construction of a 98.6k sqm, 7-storey parking facility with a capacity of 3,365 vehicles, while the second one concerns the expansion of the aircraft apron, providing 32 additional aircraft stands, two new passenger boarding bridges connecting the terminal to the new apron, as well as a dedicated aircraft service station, budgeted at €100m. Both projects are expected to be completed by the end of 2Q27.
Intralot: The company announced the extension of its current contract in New Zealand expiring in 2026 up to 2023 including 1 more year of extension upon that (till 2023).
Fourlis (FY:24 results preview): The company will report FY:24 results today after market close. We expect a good performance from the retail sectors of the company ie IKEA brand and Intersport (sporting goods division), still insignificant contribution of the health business (H&B) and real estate strong performance following the expansion of its GAV. Trade Estates will be deconsolidated from January 2025 onwards as Fourlis reduced its stake to 47.3% following the placement of a 16% stake. Thus FY:24 results will be adjusted for real estate sector as discontinued operations and will no longer be consolidated going forward. Fourlis will continue to receive dividends from his TE stake (47.3%). We have tried to make an effort to present on the tables below our estimates from the group’s ongoing activities going forward that is the pure retail business, ie the IKEA home furnishing segment, the Intersport sports segment and the Holland and Barret health segment excluding from our calculations the contribution of the TE REIC. IKEA’s Q4:24 performance should be burdened by the cyber attack that affected its operations systems but not at the expense of profitability. Interspost is expected to maintain its growth across all operating countries while 2025 should mark a landscape for the company with the inclusion of sport leisure (Foot locker) in its operations. Both IKEA and Intersport have maintained their strong operating profitability margins. We are NEUTRAL on the stock.
|
Fourlis (Retail total) |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY Est. |
(%) |
|
Sales |
521,300 |
526,500 |
1.0% |
|
EBITDA (OPR) |
35,900 |
41,450 |
15.5% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
6.9% |
7.9% |
+99 bps |
|
EBIT |
21,100 |
24,800 |
17.5% |
|
EBIT Mrg |
4.0% |
4.7% |
+66 bps |
|
IKEA (€mn) |
FY 2023 (A) |
FY 2024 EST |
% chng y-o-y |
|
Total Sales |
346.80 |
345.60 |
-0.35% |
|
Gross Profit |
151.60 |
159.00 |
4.88% |
|
Gross Profit margin |
43.71% |
46.01% |
+229 bps |
|
EBITDA (OPR, ex IFRS 16 leases) |
30.50 |
37.00 |
21.31% |
|
EBITDA (OPR) margin |
8.79% |
10.71% |
+191 bps |
|
EBIT (reported) |
35.22 |
28.30 |
-19.65% |
|
EBIT margin |
10.16% |
8.19% |
-197 bps |
|
Intersport (€mn) |
FY 2023 (A) |
FY 2024 EST |
% chng y-o-y |
|
Total Sales |
174.00 |
178.35 |
2.50% |
|
Gross Profit |
79.10 |
80.26 |
1.46% |
|
Gross Profit margin |
45.46% |
45.00% |
-46 bps |
|
EBITDA (Reported) |
26.00 |
26.95 |
3.66% |
|
EBITDA margin |
14.94% |
15.11% |
+17 bps |
|
EBITDA (OPR, ex IFRS 16 leases) |
10.83 |
11.95 |
10.34% |
|
EBITDA margin |
6.22% |
6.70% |
+48 bps |
|
EBIT (reported) |
4.40 |
4.46 |
1.34% |
|
EBIT margin |
2.53% |
2.50% |
-3 bps |
CC Details: Wednesday April 9 at 5pm local GR time
· GR: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800
· UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063
· UK & INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872
· USA: +1 516 447 5632
· WEB: https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/fourlis250409.html
Biggest Decline since 28/03/2025
|
FTSE-25 |
07/04/2025 |
28/03/2025 |
Δ(%) |
Δ (%)31/12/24 – 28/03/25 |
YTD (%) |
|
Optima Bank |
11.92 |
15.80 |
-24.6% |
18.1% |
-7.9% |
|
Piraeus |
4.19 |
5.40 |
-22.4% |
28.7% |
8.8% |
|
Viohalco |
4.81 |
6.16 |
-21.9% |
11.7% |
-11.6% |
|
Alpha Bank |
1.83 |
2.34 |
-21.8% |
30.9% |
13.1% |
|
Ellaktor |
1.21 |
1.54 |
-21.5% |
-45.0% |
-45.8% |
|
Elvalhalcor |
1.74 |
2.20 |
-21.1% |
12.7% |
-9.6% |
|
Eurobank |
2.05 |
2.57 |
-20.1% |
13.2% |
-8.0% |
|
Aktor |
4.28 |
5.30 |
-19.2% |
9.0% |
-11.2% |
|
Cenergy |
7.82 |
9.58 |
-18.4% |
1.5% |
-17.2% |
|
NBG |
8.13 |
9.80 |
-17.0% |
21.8% |
6.2% |
|
Motor Oil |
19.08 |
22.88 |
-16.6% |
9.8% |
-7.6% |
|
PPC |
11.75 |
14.06 |
-16.4% |
12.2% |
-4.8% |
|
Lamda Development |
5.75 |
6.88 |
-16.4% |
-6.3% |
-21.3% |
|
Metlen |
36.40 |
43.00 |
-15.3% |
22.0% |
8.6% |
|
Aegean Air |
10.46 |
12.28 |
-14.8% |
17.6% |
3.4% |
|
GEKTERNA |
17.03 |
19.86 |
-14.2% |
6.9% |
-7.8% |
|
Titan |
37.35 |
43.25 |
-13.6% |
7.1% |
-7.1% |
|
Helleniq Energy |
6.84 |
7.88 |
-13.3% |
4.1% |
-9.6% |
|
OPAP |
16.50 |
18.77 |
-12.1% |
16.4% |
5.1% |
|
Sarantis |
11.82 |
13.14 |
-10.0% |
17.2% |
8.6% |
|
Athens Water |
5.44 |
6.00 |
-9.3% |
1.5% |
-8.0% |
|
Jumbo |
23.78 |
26.00 |
-8.5% |
1.7% |
-7.0% |
|
Coca Cola |
38.50 |
42.06 |
-8.5% |
20.8% |
15.5% |
|
HTO |
14.08 |
15.25 |
-7.7% |
2.4% |
-5.4% |
|
AIA |
8.62 |
9.30 |
-7.4% |
14.0% |
7.7% |
Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.
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