Beta Sec – Daily report 08.05.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight-

Rotation may support another positive session in AthEx while focus will shift from geopolitics to Q1:25 earnings releases. We expect results and outlook to shape the day and provide fresh content to investors to assess.

Despite the dividend OPAP distributed on Wednesday (dropping 4%), AthEx recovered and closed higher. Interest from buyers spread to mid- and small-caps, as investors seeking more opportunities after assessing the recent earnings reports. Banks led the rebound, in the week of their Q1 result announcements.

General index closed at 1,727.32 points, adding 0.65% to Tuesday’s 1,716.22 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.66%, ending at 4,268.50 points. The banks index advanced 1.34%, as Alpha grew 3.49%, Piraeus collected 1.02%, Eurobank fetched 0.91% and National earned 0.75%. Index-heavy Coca-Cola HBC rose 1.19% to reach an all-time high of 45.84 euros, while Aegean Airlines climbed 3.26% and Motor Oil grabbed 2.06%. In total 74 stocks obtained gains, 52 recorded losses and 35 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €141.5m, up from Tuesday’s €129.8m. 

Greece/Real Estate: The Greek real estate market continues to move upwards, with increases in both rents for residential rents for commercial property according to Bank of Greece. In its latest note on the Greek economy (May 2, 2025), the CBE captures the prevailing trends: average annual increase in apartment prices was 6.6% in Q2 2024, up from 9.6% in Q3. Although this is the seventh consecutive quarter of slowdown, the overall price increase from the 2017 low is now +73%, approaching 2008 levels. Despite the relative “fatigue,” prices are still on an upward trajectory.

According to the latest available data, manufacturing activity increased by 29.1% at the end of 2024. But as a percentage of GDP, investment in housing remains at just 2.7% – lower than the European average, indicating that new construction is not sufficient to meet demand.

The supply of good, modern and energy-efficient housing is limited, which the BoE says exacerbates the problem of affordable housing, especially for younger households.

Austriacard (Investors day highlights): In the context of the investors day presentation management provided the updated business plan targets for the period 2025-2027. Main Points are:

§   The group expects an average annual organic sales growth of 6%-7%, a strengthening of the operating margin with EBITDA representing 15%-17% of sales, annual investments corresponding to 4%-5% of turnover and cash distributions with a pay ratio of 20%-25% of net profits.

§   As per business segment core business which is Identity & Payment Solutions will grow in the next three years with a growth rate of 6%-7%, Document Lifecycle Management with 4%-6% and Digital Transformation with 20%-25% due to the projects funded by the Development Fund. The company has a backlog in this sector for the coming two years of EUR 60 million.

§   Targeted growth will be supported by the company’s geographic expansion through Fintech in the US, document security in Africa and in the digitization projects in Greece and Romania, as well as in the expansion of the product mix.

§   Net debt to EBITDA ratio ceiling of no more than 1.5x-2x.

§   Forecasts exclude any benefits that may arise from acquisitions. Regarding any acquisitions, Austriacard stressed that the group is considering cases of companies in the US and Europe that are active in the field of digital transformation. The group is willing to invest up to €80m in acquisitions, given that it has open credit lines of €90m for business transactions and working capital.

The company trades FY:25 PE 8.3x and EV/EBITDA at 5.3x. Net Debt / EBITDA 1.3x. DY 2.6%. ROIC 12.6% over WACC of 8%.

Jumbo (April trading update): Group sales up 5% in April positively affected by Easter period switch to Q2 this year rather than Q1 last year. 4m sales up 7.4%. FY guidance extended after H1:25 results. Greek sales up 4% in April and 8% ytd. In Cyprus sales advanced 7% in April and 6% ytd. Bulgaria came in flat y=o-y and +1.5% in the 4m 2025 period. Lastly, Romania outperformed gaining 10% top line growth and +7% in the 4m period.

Ellaktor (Analysts day): New business plan to be revealed in September according to CEO Mr. Bouloutas. Completion of the sale of Aktor Concessions (to Aktor Holdings for an EV of €367mn, Equity €189mn) and Reds RE assets to Dimand (€86m) to have completed by late July paving the way for further, in our view, returns to Ellaktor’s shareholders.

Briq Properties: VWAP price for the REIT’s scrip dividend option at €2.55/share (Price calculated as VWAP price between April 30 to May 7).

Eurobank: Share buyback initiation as of May 9 up to 10% of share capital (367.673mn shares) at a price range €0.22 to €10/share

Alpha Bank: 5,745,429 treasury shares allocated to 1,177 beneficiaries in the context of the bank’s Compbined Bonus Plan at €2.0646/share

Metlen: AGM on June 3 to clear FY:24 dividend (gross) €1.5/share.

Thrace Plastics: AGM on May 28 to decide upon 2024 dividend €0.166/share.

Titan (Q1:25 results preview): Titan is set to announce Q1:25 results today before the opening while a conference call is scheduled at 16:00. Consensus estimate forecasts Turnover of €628m (+0.8% y-o-y), EBITDA of €114.2m (+4% y-o-y) and Net Profit of €51.0m (-2.7% y-o-y).

Greece is expected to post a solid performance courtesy of strong domestic demand and exports.  On the flip side SE Europe had a soft quarter on the back of adverse weather conditions and rising energy costs. In Egypt and Turkey increased demand point to an improved quarter with increased volumes and margins.

With regards to US Titan Cement International’s American-listed subsidiary released its Q1 results on Monday. Revenue declined by 2% year-over-year to $392m, primarily due to reduced volumes caused by unfavorable weather conditions in January and February. Despite this, strong pricing and effective cost management boosted the EBITDA margin by 248 basis points, resulting in a 12% increase in EBITDA to $80m. Net income rose by 13% y-o-y, reaching $33m. Q1:25 saw declines in the volumes of cement, ready-mix, and blocks by 7%, 2.2%, and 11.9%, respectively, impacted by adverse weather and a sluggish residential market. However, aggregate volumes grew by 23.6%, driven by capacity investments in Florida and robust infrastructure projects. Pricing remained solid across all product categories. Titan America reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth and a slight improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin. The company noted that the second half of the year would be stronger due to planned maintenance at the Pennsuco plant in April, which is anticipated to impact EBITDA by $8m. During the analyst call, management indicated that weather conditions had improved in March, leading to stronger demand momentum that continued into April. Regarding Trump’s tariffs, the company does not anticipate any impact until May 27. After that date, they are in “wait-and-see” stance, but if a 10% tariff is applied, it could result in an $8m impact on margins for FY25, assuming there are no adjustments to price or volume.

Focus on updated outlook and demand trends in major geographies.

As a final note the company will propose to tomorrow’s AGM a 3.00eur/share dividend with ex-date on June 30.

The following table summarise consensus estimates:

CC Details: Thursday 08-05-2025, 16:00 GR-Time

§   GR: +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5873

§   USA: +1 516 447 5632

Banking Sector (Q1:25 Results): NBG, Eurobank and Alpha Bank are set to announce their Q1:25 results in the next two days following Piraeus solid FY:24 performance. Piraeus Bank has set the tone of what to expect: loan growth momentum remains strong—mainly driven by corporate loans—net interest income (NII) is expected to decline sequentially due to fewer calendar days (2 less vs Q4:24 and 1 less vs Q1:24) and lagging interest rate effects. Fees are also projected to fall due to reduced client activity and government-imposed limits from February 1st (impact €20-30m p.a) yet asset management and brokerage will offset the most part of the decrease. Costs will rise but stay within guidance, and asset quality should remain stable. Improved asset quality and prudent provisioning in FY:24 will offset most of the top line pressures bringing marginal drop in net profit y-o-y keeping RoTE comfortably at double digit area. On capital we expect slight CET1 ratio declines expected due to Basel IV impact (first time adoption), risk-weighted asset growth, and higher deferred tax credit amortization. As a final note we expect systemic NPEs to drop below the 3% mark with average coverage 75%. In absolute terms this translates to €5bn NPEs with just €1.2bn uncovered exposures excluding collaterals.

The following tables summarise our Q1:25 estimates:

Eurobank – Results out today after market. Conference call same day 18:00 GR-Time. We expect core operating profit and credit volumes to support full year targets. Focus will be on major revenue and costs trends so far in 2025, the integration process with Hellenic Bank, and the external risks to business plan targets. We look for net profits of €288m on the back of higher taxation and one-offs related to Hellenic tender offer. Eurobank trades at 0.96x its TBV.

CC Details: Thursday 08-05-2025, 18:00 GR-Time

§   GR: +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5873

§   USA: +1 516 447 5632

National Bank of Greece – Results out today Post market. Conference call 19:00 aftermarket. Net profit is forecasted at €308m on the back of higher trading gains while LLPs and other impairments are seen just €48m. Focus in the conference on potential actions (M&As) that could utilize excess liquidity in balance sheet. NBG shares trading at 1.01x TBV.

CC Details: Thursday 08-05-2025, 19:00 GR-Time

§   GR:                +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK:                +44 (0) 203 059 5873

§   USA:              +1 516 447 5632

§   WEB:             https://hdg.choruscall.com/?$aD10cnVlJnBhc3Njb2RlPTgwMjcxMzI2JmluZm89Y29tcGFueSZyPXRydWU=

Alpha Bank – Results out Friday, May 9 before the opening (08:00 GR-Time), a conference call will follow at 12:00 GR-Time. We expect Alpha to perform better in top line revenues vs. peers courtesy of lower dependence of its loan book in variable interest rates. Alpha Bank trades 0.7x its FY:25 TBV.

CC Details: Friday 09-05-2025, 12:00 GR-Time

§   GR:                +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK:                +44 (0) 203 059 5873

§   USA:              +1 516 447 5632

§   WEB:             https://hdg.choruscall.com/?$aD10cnVlJnBhc3Njb2RlPTkxNDcxMzExJmluZm89Y29tcGFueSZyPXRydWU=