For today’s session we expect fluctuations and volatility to prevail with final sign in the close weighing again on the positive side.
Market Comment
The global swing from bonds to stocks appears to have benefited the Greek stock market at a time of geopolitical uncertainty on many fronts globally. This helped the benchmark of the local bourse climb to a new 13-year high on Thursday, with buying interest trickling down to lower capitalizations too, expanding market optimism. However, this is always a fragile optimism that may well vanish when worries from abroad take hold and become more solid.
The Athens Exchange (ATHEX) general index closed at 1,510.93 points, adding 0.30% to Wednesday’s 1,506.48 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.22%, ending at 3,680.90 points, and mid-caps climbed 1.25%. The banks index earned 0.69%, as National collected 1.69%, Eurobank fetched 0.47% and Piraeus grabbed 0.36%, while Alpha gave up 0.23% and Optima eased 0.16%. ElvalHalcor jumped 3.23%, and Ellaktor dropped 2.20%.
In total 60 stocks registered gains, 39 suffered losses and 26 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €146.62mn, down from Wednesday’s €160.3 million.
ASE seems reluctant to retreat as investor’s interest remains high and alert on positive domestic macro developments and appetite on Greek stocks across the board. For today’s session we expect fluctuations and volatility to prevail with final sign in the close weighing again on the positive side.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/Trade Account Balance: Greece’s trade deficit witnessed an alarming increase of 18.7% in Nov. last year, driven by a rise in imports and a drop in exports, according to the latest data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, (ELSTAT). This trend has raised concerns about the country’s economic balance.
The total value of imports in Nov. 2024 reached 7.2056 billion euros, compared to 6.9837 billion euros in Nov. 2023, marking a 3.2% increase. Excluding petroleum products, imports rose by 256.6 million euros (4.9%), and when further excluding both petroleum products and ships, the increase stood at 258.7 million euros (5%).
Regarding exports, the total value in Nov. 2024 dropped to 4.0246 billion euros from 4.3043 billion euros in the same month of 2023, registering a 6.5% decline. However, exports excluding petroleum products saw an increase of 157.5 million euros (5.2%), and when excluding petroleum products and ships, the rise was 173.8 million euros (5.8%).
Consequently, the trade deficit for Nov. climbed to 3.181 billion euros, compared to 2.6794 billion euros in Nov. 2023. This represents an 18.7% increase. Without petroleum products, the deficit grew by 99.1 million euros (4.5%), and when both petroleum products and ships were excluded, the increase was 84.9 million euros (3.8%).
For the first 11 months of 2024, the total value of imports reached 77.3793 billion euros, a 1.9% rise compared to 75.9482 billion euros in the same period of 2023. Imports excluding petroleum products increased by 2.2223 billion euros (4%), and when excluding petroleum products and ships, the increase amounted to 2.1788 billion euros (3.9%).
Meanwhile, the total value of exports over the same period fell by 3% to 45.8688 billion euros, down from 47.2783 billion euros in 2023. Exports excluding petroleum products rose by 401.6 million euros (1.2%), and when both petroleum products and ships were excluded, the growth was 425.5 million euros (1.3%).
As a result, the trade deficit for the Jan-Nov. period widened to 31.5105 billion euros, up 9.9% from 28.6699 billion euros in 2023. Excluding petroleum products, the deficit increased by 1.8207 billion euros (7.8%), and when further excluding ships, the rise was 1.7533 billion euros (7.5%).
Greece/Privatizations: The concession of another 22 regional airports is the next big step the Ministry of National Economy and Finance is undertaking, in the context of the utilization of public property through a new tender process. The ministry aims to proclaim a tender in the first half of the year, with slight reservation due to the transitional stage which the Growthfund is in.
The smaller airports concerned by the upcoming concession are: Chios, Alexandroupoli, Araxos, Karpathos, Limnos, Ioannina, Milos, Naxos, Paros, Ikaria, Kythira, Leros, Sitia, Nea Anchialos, Kalymnos, Skyros, Syros, Astypalaia, Kastellorizo, Kastoria, Kasos and Kozani. As was the case with the first 14, larger regional airports, which were conceded to Fraport Greece, the 22 smaller airports will also be conceded as a package to the company that will prevail in the tender. 2025 budget privatizations revenue target stands at €1.9bn.
ΜΟΗ: On January 8 the company sold 27K treasury shares at €21.15/share for a total consideration of €571.065K.
Greece/Real Estate Sector: Last year ended with an increase in residential sale and rental prices, as in the last quarter average asking sale prices increased by 7.9% year-on-year and by 2.2% compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Correspondingly, the average asking rental rates increased by 5.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, while they moved at approximately the same levels compared to the third quarter of 2024.
The hikes in average asking sale prices of residential properties are attributed to the continued interest of buyers and investors for properties in urban centers and tourism destinations, as well as to the imminent launch of the “My Home 2” housing program, which is expected to boost demand for homes that meet its requirements.
The southern suburbs of Attica unquestionably maintained their primacy as the most expensive area to buy a home in the last quarter of 2024. In second place are the Cyclades, followed by the northern suburbs of Athens and the Ionian island of Lefkada.
The entry of Hania into the ranking of the top five most expensive areas in Greece to buy a home is also interesting. In terms of renting homes, the southern suburbs stand out again as the region of the country with the highest average asking prices for renting a home. In the list of the most expensive areas we see the Cyclades again, with the northern suburbs and the center of Athens following.
The top five is completed by Piraeus. Of particular interest is the case of Halkidiki, where average asking rental prices remain consistently high due to increased tourism activity and the high availability of short-term rental options.
The most expensive areas of Attica for purchasing a home in the fourth quarter of 2024 were mainly located in the southern suburbs, led by Vouliagmeni with an average asking price for a home sale of 7,216 euros per square meter. It is followed by Voula, Glyfada, Kolonaki-Lykavittos and Elliniko.
As for renting a home, Vouliagmeni was once again at the top of the most expensive areas for the fourth quarter of 2024 with an average asking price for a home of €19.9/sq.m. The areas of Filothei, Kolonaki-Lykavittos, Glyfada and Vari-Varkiza follow.
PPC: The Public Power Corporation (PPC Group) announced the initiation of the construction of the High Efficiency Combined Heat and Power Unit (CHP), with the view to ensuring the coverage of district heating needs in Western Macedonia. The investment, totaling around 80 million euros, is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2026.
Piraeus Bank: New 2025-2027 business plan to be presented by end February, according to bank’s management presentation in London. Regarding shareholders’ remuneration early AGM on April 2025 is expected to confirm bank’s statement to rewards its shareholders’ through a combined dividend and buyback program reaching 35% of 2024 profits.
Aktor Holdings: As of today, the 160,523,985 rights (INKATR) of the company are admitted to trading on the ATHEX, following the recent share capital increase carried out in the form of a rights issue. The pre-emption right’s trading period is set from January 10, 2025 to January 21, 2025, included. The start price is set at €0.0596 for INKATR. There is no daily ceiling/floor limit for the rights’ trading. The pre-emption right’s subscription period is set from January 10, 2025, to January 24, 2025, included.
Quest Holdings: Hellenic Competition Committee cleared Benroubis acquisition by Quest. The acquisition is value positive by c.€0.5/share for Quest Group. We value Benroubis at 10x its FY:23 EBITDA of €5.2mn implying an EV addition to Quest’s group SoTP valuation of €52mn or €0.48/share.
Terna Energy: Masdar stake at 87.17% (as of January 8) from 86.38% previously.
VIS: Hellenic Quality Foods tender offer for the remaining shares of VIS ended with Hellenic Food gathering 3.987mn shares out of the total 4.747mn it did now own. Total stake thus reached 98.61% or 53.895mn shares. Squeeze out right will be exercised by Hellenic food and VIS will be delisted from the ASE.
¢ Buybacks
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