Beta Sec – Daily report 11.03.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight-

Market on hold, despite short-term resilience and persistence in staying in touch with 14-year highs investors may stay on the sidelines in today’s session as international pressures escalate on fears of economic slowdown, tariffs war and geopolitical uncertainties.

Buyers took the lead at the finish line and AthEx stayed afloat despite intraday volatility and considerable pressures that lead major Exchanges to decline on the day. While the majority of Greek stocks ended up on the losing side, the main index notched up minor gains, while turnover was strong, all in the aftermath of the Morningstar DBRS credit rating upgrade for Greece late last Friday. Banks were in the spotlight with NBG hitting a nine-year high. Despite global market turbulence, particularly in Wall Street, AthEx demonstrated remarkable resilience.

General index closed at 1,627.94 points, adding 0.04% to Friday’s 1,627.36 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index also expanded 0.04%, ending at 3,998.94 points. The banks index contracted 0.15%, as Eurobank dropped 2.61% and Alpha eased 1.36%, while Piraeus grabbed 1.70% and National obtained 1.28%. Jumbo jumped 2.25% and OTE telecom rose 1.07%, as ElvalHalcor parted with 2.34% and Titan Cement gave up 1.48%. In total 42 stocks boasted gains, 76 posted losses and 43 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 222.9 million euros, up from last Friday’s €187.9m.

 

AthEx/February Market Stats: ATHEX announced market statistics data for February 2025. In detail:

§   Foreign investors during January 2025 had inflows of €132.4m, while in the two-month period (Jan-Feb) had inflows of €134.4m.

§   Foreign Investors accounted for 62.1% of total transactions’ value during January 2025 (compared to 59.7% during the previous month).

§   The allocation of the total Value of Assets Under Custody at the end of February 2025, was set: foreign investors held 65.78% of the total value, while domestic investors held 34.22%.

§   The countries of tax residency holding the highest Value of Assets Under Custody (individual segregated accounts) were U.S.A. (total value of assets €15.66bn.), Cyprus (total value of assets €10.38bn.) and the Germany (total value of assets €6.34bn.).

Greece/CPI: Domestic inflation rate in February 2025 decreased slightly to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in January and 2.9% in the same month last year. According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), on a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.1%. The data shows significant price increases in certain sectors, with hotels seeing a rise of 17.5%, air travel prices going up by 10.8%, rent rising by 9.9%, and health insurance premiums climbing by 7%. Additionally, electricity prices increased by 6.7%, with clothing and footwear prices edging up by 6.4%, while natural gas prices also saw a 4.1% increase. Food inflation was relatively mild, at just 0.2%. However, olive oil prices dropped by 16.9%, while other oils increased by 11%. Beef prices surged by 6.7%, nuts rose by 5.7%, and coffee saw a 4.7% increase. Over the 12-month period from March 2024 to February 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7%, slightly lower than the 2.9% rise seen in the previous year (March 2023 to February 2024). The overall 2.5% increase in February 2025 compared to the same month in 2024 was primarily driven by price changes across various categories. Food and non-alcoholic beverages saw a 0.2% rise, mainly due to higher prices for bread, cereals, beef, pork, fish, edible oils, dried fruits, nuts, frozen vegetables and other food categories. This increase was partially offset by price drops in items like cold cuts, cheese, olive oil, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, and other foods. Harmonized CPI at 3%.

Greece/Industrial Production: Domestic Industrial Production increased by 2% in January 2025.

Ellaktor: The company received a non-binding offer from Aktor Holdings regarding the sale of its total stake in Aktor Concessions SA. Aktor was granted an exclusivity on negotiations in order to conduct and conclude the required due diligence process till end April 2025. The remaining stakes in various BOT’s for ELLAKTOR, in our assumptions, provide an EBITDA on a FY basis of €30mn. Should we apply a multiple of 6x the total value of Aktor Concessions is estimated roughly around €180mn.

Thessaloniki Water: FY:24 results on April 11. AGM May 22. Ex-dividend date July 1. Dividend record date July 2. Dividend payment July 8. H1:25 results September 26.

Attica Bank (FY:24/Q4:24 results): Attica Bank announced an improving set of results in Q4:24. In Q4:24 the bank posted PPI of €16.6m and Net Income of €16.3m. In more details:

§   On a full year basis group recurring PPI at €43.9m, rising by 100%, benefiting from strong core income growth (NII + fees) Key 12M 2024 profitability drivers were NII growth by 44% y-o-y, fee growth of 112% y-o-y and robust non-core income growth of 64% y-o-y. NII benefited primarily from a) positive credit expansion b) higher average interest rates and c) higher bond volumes. PCB’s contribution in recurring PPI for Q4:24, was a €4.2m.

§   Contribution of NPEs on a declining trend; NPEs contributed 15% of Total Interest Income vs. 23% in FY:23, on PE growth and NPE deleveraging.

§   Excluding the impact from PCB (like for like basis), FY:24 group NII was up 15% y-o-y, fees grew 52% Y-o-y, while total revenues increased 20%. In parallel, cost containment efforts continued, with total OpEx almost stable, up by a slim 1% y-o-y, driving recurring PPI at €39.6mln, up by a strong 80% y-o-y. PBT at minus €367.6mln including one-off losses for HAPS, as well as one-off restructuring/ project expenses related to the merger.

§   Total Group deposits stood at €6.1bn. Strong liquidity profile with LCR at 301% in December 2024. During Q4:24 Group’s deposits increased by €354m compared to the previous quarter, with their growth rate being twice the market growth rate.

§   Net Credit Expansion of € 952m for the fiscal year, achieving the annual target set under the Bank’s business plan.

§   New Disbursements as of €2.29bn in the 12-month period of 2024 at a consolidated basis. Out of €624m disbursed in Q4:24, 64% was granted to SME’s and individuals (55% and 9% respectively), while 32% in large corporates.

§   CET1 ratio, after the Share Capital Increase completion, the AT1 issued by Pancreta Bank conversion and SRT granting stood at 11.9%, 320 bps above the supervisory threshold (OCR).

§   NPEs at 2.8% with 47.8% cash coverage.

§   Attica said that aims to RoaTBV >20%, C/I<40% and Pre-Provision-Profit of €280m.

§   Attica Bank trades 1.85x its tangible book value. The bank will hold a conference call to discuss results today before the opening of the session.

The following table summarise results:

 

Amounts in €mln	FY:24	FY:23	y-o-y %	Q4:24	Q3:24	Q4:23	y-o-y %	q-o-q%
Net interest income	106.7	74.2	44%	42	24.7	22.4	88%	70%
Net fee & commission income	19.0	9.0	112%	7	4.6	3.0	132%	52%
Non-core income	16.5	10.1	64%	7	4.4	3.1	124%	56%
Recurring Operating Income	142.3	93.2	53%	56	33.8	28.6	96%	66%
Recurring Operating Expenses	-98.4	-71.3	38%	-40	-23.9	-18.1	118%	66%
Recurring Pre-Provision Income	43.9	21.9	100%	17	9.9	10.4	59%	67%
Reported PPI	33.0	27.7	19%	12	-0.2	13.7	-14%	n.m.
Profit / (Loss) before taxes	-367.6	28.6	n.m.	16	-390	12	40%	n.m.
NIM over  Assets (bps)	2.14%	2.16%	-2 bps	2.30%	2.27%	2.44%	-13bps	4bps
Cost to income ratio	69%	77%	-7.4 pps	70.5%	71%	64%	6.9pps	-13bps

 

Conference Call details: Tuesday March 11, 10:00 GR-Time

§   GR:            + 30 213 009 6000 or + 30 210 94 60 800

§   UK & Intl:  + 44 (0) 203 0595872

§   USA:          + 1 516 447 5632

 

Greece/Trade Account Balance: Trade Account Deficit up 8.5% in January 2025 to €2.809bn from €2.589bn in January 2024. The corresponding value of deficit excluding oil products in January 2025 recorded an increase of 192.8 million euros or 9.8% and the corresponding value excluding oil products and ships in January 2025 recorded an increase of 200.6 million euros or 10.2%, in comparison with January 2024. However, 2025 entered the year positively in terms of exports. Their total value in January amounted to 4.097 billion euros, compared to 4.008 million billion euros in the same month of 2024, recording an increase of 2.2%. The corresponding value excluding petroleum products in January 2025 increased by 266.9 million euros, i.e. 9.9%, and the corresponding value excluding petroleum products and ships increased by 271.8 million euros, i.e. 10.1%, compared to January 2024. The total value of imports in January 2025 amounted to 6.906.4 billion euros in comparison with 6.598.0 billion euros in January 2024, recording an increase of 4.7%. The corresponding value excluding oil products in January 2025 recorded an increase of 459.7 million euros or 9.9% and the corresponding value excluding oil products and ships in January 2025 recorded an increase of 472.4 million euros or 10.2%, in comparison with January 2024.

Fourlis: FY:24 results on April 8 after market close. CC and institutional presentation to follow next day.

GEK Terna: Officially announced as final preferred bidder for the €2bn project Crete North bound highway.

Autohellas (FY:24 results preview): The company will announce FY:24 performance tomorrow morning before market opening. We expect a flat y-o-y set of results, with strong short term car rental in Greece due to tourism effect, dominant operating lease domestic exposure, improved international activities performance and lower (mid-single digit decline rate) commercial activity in Greece. Dividend policy will remain generous incorporating 45% DPO to bring FY:24 expected gross DPS at €0.71/share vs €0.70/share in 2023. In more details:

§   Sales down 2.2% y-o-y to €980.4mn vs €1,002.67 in 2023

§   EBITDA flat at €272.32mn vs €272.06mn on EBITDA margin enhancement at 27.8% vs 27.1%

§   Net income to settle at €7.6mn vs €77.23mn, a 0.9% decline y-o-y. Profitability assisted by €9mn received dividend from Aegean Air (10% stake, €8mn dividends) and Trade Estates (12% stkae, €1mn dividends).

§   We remain positive on the stock due to the uninterrupted good developments on all Greek KPIs and trends, its robust cashflow generation and potential further improvement on the international front. Top pick for 2025 with TP €17.80/share on top of which we must add our estimation of FY:25 expected gross dividend of €0.71/share.

§   FY:25 PE 6.2x, EV/EBITDA 3.8x, Net Debt/EBITDA 1.9x, DY 7.1%.

 

AUTOHELLAS	2023	2024	Y-o-Y
EUR thous.	FY	FY Est.	(%)
Sales	1,002,674	980,400	-2.2%
EBITDA	272,055	272,320	0.1%
EBITDA Mrg	27.1%	27.8%	+64 bps
Net Income	77,233	76,500	-0.9%
Net Mrg	7.7%	7.8%	+10 bps

 

Attica Holding (FY:24 results): AGM on April 29. FY:24 gross dividend €0.07/share, DY 3%. Results burdened by €28.2mn one off expenses related to merger with ANEK Lines. CO2 emissions costs add €18.9mn in total expenses. Net Debt up 11.4% to €540.425mn vs €485.113mn in 2023.

Attica Holdings	2023	2024	Y-o-Y
EUR thous.	FY	FY	(%)
Sales	588,306	747,811	27.1%
EBITDA	126,383	96,290	-23.8%
EBITDA Mrg	21.5%	12.9%	-861 bps
Net Income	61,224	17,499	-71.4%
Net Mrg	10.4%	2.3%	-807 bps

 

Dimand (FY:24 results): FY:24 portfolio comprises of 13 RE asstes with a GDV (Gross Development Values) €1.024bn. NAV at €180mn vs €140mn in FY:23. Net debt at €34mn vs €67mn a year earlier. Gross cash at €38mn vs €12mn in 2023. Net LTV at 23% vs 385 in 2023. Net LTA at 11% vs 26%.

DIMAND	2023	2024	Y-o-Y
EUR thous.	FY	FY	(%)
Sales	9,386	28,000	198.3%
EBITDA	19,263	58,000	201.1%
EBITDA Mrg	205.2%	207.1%	+191 bps
Net Income	13,205	37,000	180.2%
Net Mrg	140.7%	132.1%	-855 bps

 

Avax: Reportedly the group is rumored to place 5% stake today.