Beta Sec – Daily report 11-12-2024- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight

AthEx ended rising streak on Tuesday, after six sessions of growth for the benchmark, though the profit-taking appetite of traders was quite moderate. Despite the rather high turnover, most stocks contained their losses and a few continued to grow.

General Index closed at 1,458.81 points, shedding 0.42% from Monday’s 1,464.98 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.47%, ending at 3,559.05 points, while mid-caps declined only by 0.08%.

• The banks index conceded 0.79%, as Piraeus dropped 2.02%, Alpha gave up 1.67%, Eurobank lost 0.22% and National slipped 0.08%. Lamda Development eased 1.93% and Helleniq Energy slid 1.89%, whereas Jumbo improved 1.68%.

In total 44 stocks boasted gains, 71 posted losses and 46 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €142.2m, up from Monday’s €141.6 m.

• Markets on hold ahead of critical macro data releases (US Nov. CPI) and ECB interest rates decision and short term outlook tomorrow. Investors will also focus on 2025 budget debate in parliament tracking statements related to banking sector.

Greece/CPI: Inflation in Greece remained unchanged at 2.4% in November 2024, compared to October, according to data published by the country’s statistical services, ELSTAT.

• The general consumer price index (CPI) posted a 0.4% decrease in November compared to the previous month, a similar percentage drop in comparison to the respective period last year.

There was a 2.8% rise in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12-month period from December 2023 to November 2024, showing a 2.8% increase vis-à-vis the corresponding period of the previous year.

• This marks a slowdown compared to the 3.8% increase recorded during the 12 months from December 2022 to November 2023. 

Greece/Economy: The process of early repayment of three more installments from the loan of the first memorandum totaling 7.935 billion euros after approval by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is expected to occur this Friday. 5 billion euros will be utilized from the “hard core” of cash reserves amounting to 15.7 billion euros.

• The early repayment of the installments for the years 2026-2027-2028 will help Greece save 150 million euros that would have to pay for interest. Similar moves (early repayment of installments) are planned for both 2025 and 2026.

Pm Mr. Mitsotakis has already announced that the country plans to proceed in 2025 with another early repayment of installments from the loan of the first memorandum, which mature in the period 2033-2042. For these amounts, it is also planned to utilize part of the “cushion” of 15.7 billion euros. 

Greece/Industrial Production:  October Industrial Production retreated 2.9% vs October 2023. January – October 2024 Index advanced 5.3%.

Greece/Economy: 2025 budget to be introduced to the Parliament today for debate and approval on Sunday. 

Greece/Tourism: Tourism Minister Mrs. O. Kefalogianni referred to the great contribution of tourism to the country’s GDP after last year’s record year in tourism revenues, speaking to state run ERT channel on Tuesday, saying some 22 billion euros of tourism takings are expected this year vs historical high of €20bn in 2023.

Metlen: METLEN strengthens Europe’s strategic autonomy in critical raw materials by receiving significant support from the European Union’s Global Gateway for its investment in Ghana. The project concerns the exploration and exploitation of bauxite deposits, and it is included in the list of flagship projects for 2025.

Jumbo (2024 trading update): Jumbo maintained its 2x negatively revised guidance for FY:24 top line growth of 4% despite the beat following the November 2024 sales growth of 7% which also brought ytd sales growth to 7%.

• Management refrained from providing a guidance for 2025 top line stating that this will be feasible after April 2025. Regarding November geographical performance, Greece advanced 6% with 11 months growth at 7%. Cyprus was up by 11% in November and 2% ytd with one new privately owned hyper-store in Nicosia in place.

Bulgaria was also strong in top line (+10%) in November and at +8% for the 11 months of 2024. Finally, Romania came in at 6% and 10% respectively with one new hyper-store (owned) available in the center of Bucharest as of end October.

OPAP: According to Hellenic Gaming Commission monthly bulletin online momentum has strengthened further and as the Championships in popular sports and European events went into full swing, betting traffic showed a significant increase.

• In the 10-month figures (Jan – Oct), Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) shows an increase of 26% compared to the same ten-month period last year when in the nine-month period the increase was in 21%. The big difference in the Q3 figures had been driven by the online casino traffic (+48.3%) which had been combined with the increase in traffic on the betting platform.

Based on official data October is running on online with an 82% increase in gross revenues and this is excellent news as OPAP has a market share in this category of just over 50%. Agencies/VLTs were also strong and saw their GGR increase by 10% while lotteries also made a positive contribution with a 6% increase.

• On the flip side, Horseracing revenues were down 25% to figures however expressing 2% of the market or 3% of OPAP’s total gross revenues.

OPAP is likely to exceed €800 million in EBITDA when management’s guidance stands at €770 million. With this projection, the company’s net profitability will approach €487m (FY:23:€417.4 million) while OPAP will generate another €200 million in free cash flow. The following table summarise trends in Gaming in Greece:

Aegean Air:  Aegean Airlines is strengthening its routes as of 2025, offering two new destinations abroad and seven new direct domestic flights from regional hubs.

• It announced it will connect Athens with Iraq with direct flights to Erbil, starting on February 23,2025 and operating twice a week, every Wednesday and Sunday. In addition, on April 14 2025, the airline’s direct flights from Athens to Azerbaijan will also resume, every Monday and Friday.

On the domestic network, Aegean is adding four new direct routes from Iraklio to Rhodes, Naxos, Corfu and Kos. From Rhodes, two more direct flights to Hania and Santorini are planned from June.

• In other news the annual cost of export and inspection on the turbines of A320 neo aircraft is €20 million and management is looking to reduce this to €16 million according to presentations to investors in recent roadshows.

PPC: 12.73mn treasury shares acquired over the period June 2022 to September 2023 at an avg price of €7.58/share will be cancelled as of December 13. PPC has also decided to increase the share capital of its 100% subsidiary for Telecommunications, Fibergrid, by 150 million euros.

• This increase will be made gradually, with 40 million to be paid immediately (within 15 days) and 110 million euros by the end of 2025. Based on the most recently published data from PPC, Fibergrid will have implemented 500,000 optical fiber connections to homes and businesses (FTTH) by the end of this year, while its goal is to reach 1.7 million by the end of 2025.

Prodea: The REIT trades today ex FY:24 net interim dividend €0.47/share.

Bank of Cyprus: AGM on May 16,2025.

ADMIE Holding: 9M:24 results on December 16 before market opening.

Dimand: Deputy CEO Mr. Dimtsas bought on December 5500 company’s shares for €4.1K.

Petropoulos: The company concluded the acquisition of TEMMA SA.

CNL Capital: New 570K bond loan issued in order to finance the company’s operations.

Kind regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478988/754

Email: [email protected]

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