Beta Sec – Daily report 12.02.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

12 Φεβρουαρίου, 2025

Market Comment

A rather quiet Tuesday at AthEx treaded the same line as Monday’s session, with minor losses for the benchmark and blue chips while mid-caps continued on their way north for one more day.

General index closed at 1,548.93 points, shedding 0.19% from Monday’s 1,551.90 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.15%, ending at 3,775.75 points, though mid-caps expanded 0.45%. The banks index declined 0.06%, as National parted with 0.85%, Eurobank gave up 0.84% and Optima eased 0.60%, while Alpha grabbed 1.91% and Piraeus advanced 0.69%. Titan Cement conceded a notable 4.11%. In total 47 stocks secured gains, 55 endured losses and 23 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €100.5m, down from Monday’s €115.1m.

All eyes on US CPI figures (15:30 GR-Time) which are expected to offer fresh clues on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. Therefore, we expect a cautious trade before the announcement and the market to act accordingly to reported data vs. estimates.

In the Spotlight

Greece/MSCI: No changes on MSCI index constituents.

CCHBC (FY:24 results preview): FY:24 results on Thursday February 13 before market opening. Consensus stands for FY:24 sales of €10.7bn (+5.1%), EBITDA at €1.667bn (+10.7%) and net profit at €815.7mn (+6.7%) with expectations for FY:24 div at €1/share vs €0.93/share in FY:23. FCF at €663.36mn with CAPEX at €694.5mn.. In ore details:

§ Organic volume to rise by 3% vs 2023 with Established up 0.2%, Developing up 2.6% and Emerging up 4.1%.

§ In absolute terms (values) total volume is projected to come in at 2,921.4mn uc with Established contributing 630.9mn uc, Developing 483.4mn uc and emerging 1,807.1mn uc.

§ Total organic net sales revenue per unit case at 10% with Established rising 3.4%, Developing up 9% and Emerging +17.5%.

§ Total organic revenue is seen up 13%, higher than per unit case due to price mix, product mix and price increases. Established +3.5%, Developing +11.5% and Emerging +21.9% will shape a total growth of 13%. This translates to established net sales of €3,508.6mn, Developing €2,360.4mn and Emerging €4,829.6mn bringing the total sales figure to €10,698.6mn, up 5.05% y-o-y vs FY:23 of €10,184mn.

§ EBITDA is projected to rise by 10.7% to €1,666.9mn vs €1,506.1mn on 80bps EBITDA margin improvement to 15.6% from 14.8%.

§ On the EBIT front, FY:24 figure will rise by 8.29% to €1,173.8mn vs €1,084mn a year earlier, with established markets EBIT at €419.4mn, Developing markets at €247.2mn and Emerging at €510.8mn. EBIT margin to settle at €10.97% from 10.64%.

§ Net profit up 6.8% to €815.7mn compared to €764mn in 2023. Results will be burdened by €69mn net interest expenses and negative €4.4mn one off items. Effective tax rate at 26.8%.

§ DPS at €1/share vs €0.93/share in FY:23; CAPEX at €694.5mn, CAPEX/Sales ratio at 6.5%; FCF at €663.4mn.

Focus on 2025 outlook and any guidance that will be provided.

The following table summarise consensus estimates:

COCA COLA	2023	2024	Y-o-Y
EUR thous.	FY Act.	FY Est.	(%)
Sales	10,184,000	10,698,600	5.1%
EBITDA	1,506,100	1,666,900	10.7%
EBITDA Mrg	14.8%	15.6%	+79 bps
Net Income	764,200	815,700	6.7%
Net Mrg	7.5%	7.6%	+12 bps

CC Details: Thursday February 13 11:30 AM GMT+2

§ USA: +18649914103 or +18445430451 (toll free)

§ UK: +441400220156 or +448081751536 (toll free)

Jumbo (January 2025 trading update): January consolidated sales up 11%, not indicative for the FY sales growth as January was impacted by higher wholesale and franchisee sales. Greek sales kicked off strong at +15% due, as mentioned to wholesale and exports to franchisees increased turnover. Cyprus was up 3%, Bulgaria advanced 2% and Romania ended at +5%. Guidance to be provided after 4m 2025 period as stated previously by the company.

Hellenic Exchanges: New stock market laegislation framework revealed yesterday by Finance Minister. Among others, changes include reduction in the taxation of coupon from listed entities’ bonds to 5% from 15%. Sales tax to be also reduced to 1‰ from 2‰.

MOH: The group’s energy subsidiary MORE sold its participation (35%) to Korinthos power to the groups electric retail arm (NRG) for a total consideration of €56mn.

Eurobank: The bank acquired a further 37.5% stake in Hellenic Bank (154,832,195 shares) at €4.843/share for a total consideration of €750mn reaching a total of 93.47% participation from 55.96% previously. The bank will place a mandatory tender offer at €4.843/share regarding the remaining stake in Hellenic (6.53%). Following the completion of the tender offer, Eurobank will proceed to the squeeze out of Hellenic bank shareholders.

ThPA: On February 10, Belterra acquired 1,385 shares (0.02% of share capital) at €29/share, thus rising its total stake to 72.76% (7,334,129 shares). The long-awaited presidential decree approving the Master Plan for the port of Thessaloniki was published in the Official Gazette, opening the way for the implementation of the major investment for the expansion of the 6th pier. It is recalled that the METKA-TEKAL consortium has been appointed as the temporary contractor for the project “6th Pier, Port Infrastructure Expansion.”

Ideal Holdings: €0.10/share net capital return to shareholders’ ex-date March 7. Payment March 14.

Evropi Holdings: EGM on March 6 to decide on share buyback program.

Autohellas: FY:24 results on March 12. AGM April 8. Ex-dividend date April 10. Dividend payment April 16. Dividend record date April 11.

Buybacks