Beta Sec – Daily report 13.02.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

Wednesday marked one more 14-year high for the benchmark at the Greek stock market, with banks leading the charge and most other non-financials following. While uncertainty persists internationally, the local market seems very reluctant for a major correction on the back of upcoming Q4:24 results announcements and considerable dividend yields which begin to realize in two months.

General index closed at 1,562.04 points, adding 0.85% to Tuesday’s 1,548.93 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 1.03%, ending at 3,814.54 points. The banks index climbed 1.58%, on Piraeus grabbing 2.26%, Alpha earning 1.50%, National fetching 1.47%, Eurobank augmenting 1.39% and Optima collecting 0.45%. Sarantis rose 2.63% and Jumbo grew 2.19%, while Titan Cement parted with 1.27%. In total 73 stocks obtained gains, 44 showed losses and 44 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €152.8m, up from Tuesday’s €100.5m.

Fast gains may tempt for some profit taking at the opening phase of transactions however positive sentiment in foreign markets may keep index afloat.  News-flow related to a potential termination of War in Ukraine provides assistance despite inflation data headwinds while banking sector seems to benefit from slower interest rate pace reduction.

Greece/PDMA:  During the auction of €250mn GGB 3.625%, 15 June 2035 that was conducted yesterday (reopening of existing series), total bids reached EUR 1,188 million and the amount finally accepted was EUR 250 million. Settlement date is February 19, 2025. Coverage ratio at 4.75x and yield at 3.24%. 

CCHBC (FY:24 results preview): FY:24 results on Thursday February 13 before market opening. Consensus stands for FY:24 sales of €10.7bn (+5.1%), EBITDA at €1.667bn (+10.7%) and  net profit at €815.7mn (+6.7%) with expectations for FY:24 div at €1/share vs €0.93/share in FY:23. FCF at €663.36mn with CAPEX at €694.5mn.. In ore details:

§   Organic volume to rise by 3% vs 2023 with Established up 0.2%, Developing up 2.6% and Emerging up 4.1%.

§   In absolute terms (values) total volume is projected to come in at 2,921.4mn uc with Established contributing 630.9mn uc, Developing 483.4mn uc and emerging 1,807.1mn uc.

§   Total organic net sales revenue per unit case at 10% with Established rising 3.4%, Developing up 9% and Emerging +17.5%.

§   Total organic revenue is seen up 13%, higher than per unit case due to price mix, product mix and price increases. Established +3.5%, Developing +11.5% and Emerging +21.9% will shape a total growth of 13%. This translates to established net sales of €3,508.6mn, Developing €2,360.4mn and Emerging €4,829.6mn bringing the total sales figure to €10,698.6mn, up 5.05% y-o-y vs FY:23 of €10,184mn.

§   EBITDA is projected to rise by 10.7% to €1,666.9mn vs €1,506.1mn on 80bps EBITDA margin improvement to 15.6% from 14.8%. On the EBIT front, FY:24 figure will rise by 8.29% to €1,173.8mn vs €1,084mn a year earlier, with established markets EBIT at €419.4mn, Developing markets at €247.2mn and Emerging at €510.8mn. EBIT margin to settle at €10.97% from 10.64%.

§   Net profit up 6.8% to €815.7mn compared to €764mn in 2023. Results will be burdened by €69mn net interest expenses and negative €4.4mn one off items. Effective tax rate at 26.8%.

§   DPS at €1/share vs €0.93/share in FY:23; CAPEX at €694.5mn, CAPEX/Sales ratio at 6.5%; FCF at €663.4mn.

Focus on 2025 outlook and any guidance that will be provided.

 CC Details: Thursday February 13 11:30 AM GMT+2

§   UK: +441400220156 or +448081751536 (toll free)

§   USA: +18649914103 or +18445430451 (toll free)

Greece/Tourism: According to press, tourist receipts are estimated at €21.75bn for 2024, indicating an annual increase of 5.62% and an increase of 19.6% compared to the pre-covid level of 2019. Assuming no adverse economic developments, Initial estimates are optimistic for this year too, with an expected increase in arrivals and receipts, supported by the constantly increasing supply of tourist services.

Eurobank: FY:24 results on February 27.

Alpha Bank: 697,462 new shares stemming from the exercise of 99 beneficiaries stock option rewards program (PIP) commence trading tomorrow. 

Intralot: Major shareholder Mr. Kim’s stake in the company unchanged at 26.86% (162,269,046 common shares) through several affiliated companies.