Beta Sec – Daily report 14.02.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight

AthEx was boosted by both the positive climate that prevailed in European markets due to hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine, and by the onslaught of buyers of many index-heavy securities, with a focus on banks, as well as small-caps. General Index reached levels unseen since March 2011 in the strongest session of the year –so far- while turnover soared over €200m.

General index closed at 1,600.97 points, adding 2.49% to Wednesday’s 1,562.04 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 2.82%, ending at 3,922.27 points. The banks index outperformed, with a 3.20% rise, as Piraeus augmented 3.90%, National fetched 3.61%, Alpha earned 3.21%, Eurobank improved 2.50% and Optima climbed 0.75%.

CCHBC, which reported 12.2% growth in its comparable EBITDA last year, saw its stock jump 7.90%. Aegean Airlines grabbed 3.17% and ElvalHalcor collected 3%.

All blue chips enjoyed gains on the day. In total 92 stocks recorded gains, 29 posted losses and 40 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €213m, up from Wednesday’s €152.8m, with the bourse earning €2.7 billion in capitalization in a single session.

Overbought again:

Technically AthEx could justify a moderate correction on the back of considerable gains this week continuing a streak of 8 straight weeks of gains. However, momentum is strong rotation may absorb offer and keep the market in touch with 14 year highs.

Greece/Retail Sector: Greek supermarket sales surpassed 12 billion euros in 2024, reaching 12.148 billion euros, marking a 2.6% increase compared to the same period last year. According to data from the research firm Circana (formerly IRI), the volume of sales grew by 2.8% in 2024, outpacing the 2.6% increase in sales value.

This growth comes after a period of reduced consumption in 2022 and 2023, mainly due to steep price hikes. In fact, in 2022, sales grew by just 0.5% year-over-year, while in 2023, the increase was 2.5%.All three main product categories experienced a rise in sales volume for the year: food sales increased by 2.8%, personal hygiene products by 3.1%, and household care items by 1.5%.

Among the categories with the highest growth were dairy products, which rose by 6.1%, followed by alcoholic beverages with a 5.1% increase, frozen foods at 5%, and soft drinks at 4.6%. In terms of sales value, only food items saw a notable increase of 3.6%, while personal hygiene and household care products experienced a decline of 0.9%.

These two categories also saw the most intense promotional activity, with the share of products sold on promotion rising throughout 2024. Specifically, 28.8% of personal hygiene products were sold on promotion (a 0.4 percentage point increase compared to 2023), 25.9% of household care items (+0.4), and 25.6% of food items (+0.3). Private label products continued to outperform branded goods, with a turnover growth rate of 4.4%, compared to just 2% for branded items.

Circana reports that the market share of private label products in 2024 reached 26.7%, up by 0.4 percentage points from 2023. As for promotions, contrary to expectations that government measures would limit them, the intensity of promotions remained strong, even increasing by 0.4 percentage points. The share of promoted products stood at 25.7% in 2024.

Greece/Car registrations: The circulation of cars and motorcycles decreased in January 2025 compared to the corresponding month of 2024, according to ELSTAT data released on Thursday.

In January, 21,762 cars (new or used from abroad) were released for the first time, compared to 22,539 that were released in the corresponding month of 2024, showing a decrease of 3.4%.

The circulation of cars (new or used from abroad) for the first time had shown an increase of 6.7% in January 2024 compared to the corresponding month of 2023. The new cars that were released in January 2025 amounted to 11,563 compared to 13,708 that were released in the corresponding month of 2024, showing a decrease of 15.6%.

Fourlis: As of today, the 843,300 new (CR) shares of the company start trading on the ATHEX following the recent share capital increase due to the Stock Option Plan, exercised by 64 executives of the company, at an issue price of €1.00 per share. On February 14, 2025, the total number of the company’s listed shares amounts to 53,360,277 (CR) shares.

Alpha Bank: As of today, the 697,462 new shares of the company sttart trading on the ATHEX following the recent share capital increase due to the Stock Option Plan, exercised by 99 executives of the company, at issue prices of €0.29 & €0.30 per share. On February 14, 2025, the total number of the company’s listed shares amounts to 2,353,674,756 shares.

ThPA: On February 11 and February 12 Belterra bought 2,214 shares and 3K shares respectively at €28.9160 and €28.7, thus rising its stake to 72.81% (7,339,343 shares). The company also officially got the ministerial and presidential decree for expanding its premises by constructing the new Pier 6 in the port, a total investment of €180mn.

• The master plan was spending since ThPa privatization back in 2028. The port will be able thus to cater containers with up to 24K TEUs capacity. Total capex since 2018 amounts to €71.3mn, but the bulk of the €180mn will be executed going forward related to the construction of the new pier.

MOH: The European Commission has approved a €111.7 million Greek government measure to support Motor Oil Hellas to produce renewable hydrogen.

The measure will be fully funded through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), following the Commission’s positive assessment of Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan.

The Commission said measure will contribute to the decarbonization of the mobility and industrial sectors and will help kick-start the hydrogen market in Greece.

The measure will support the Corinth-based company in the implementation of its “Green Hydrogen” project. The project concerns the installation at the company’s refinery at Agioi Theodoroi of an electrolyser with a target capacity of 50 MW, which will operate with energy from renewable sources.

The renewable hydrogen will be used for different purposes, such as for mobility and other industrial applications (for example, the production of sustainable fuels). The aid will take the form of a direct grant.

Titan: The company announced its geographical footprint expansion to Asia through the setup of a new JV in India in collaboration with JAYCEE, a company specializing in SCM, to expand its cement activities in Asia. Titan will hold a majority stake in the JV.

Banking Sector: According to press on February 25, Claudia Buch, head of the SSM, will visit Athens to meet with Greek banks and the Bank of Greece. Discussions will focus on how banks plan to offset revenue losses from lower interest rates through hedging and other strategies to preserve capital and profitability.

Dividend approvals will also be a key topic, especially as NPEs are expected to fall below 3% for all systemic banks by the end of 2024.

Another topic on the agenda is sector consolidation, while discussions on potential partnerships with foreign banks remain open. Lastly, the meetings will address key industry developments, including the Danish compromise for Piraeus Bank’s potential acquisition of Ethniki Insurance and the Eurobank-Hellenic Bank merger.

CCHBC (FY:24 results review): CC HBC reported an in line set of FY:24 results with sales and net income coming slightly ahead of consensus estimates while EBITDA missed expectation by 3.8%. FY:24 dividend also in line with estimate (€1.03/share vs €1.01/share and €0.93 in FY:23). Guidance provided for 2025 similar to the one provided last year for 2024. In more details:

§   Volumes grew by 2.8% to 2,914.5mn uc (unit cases) from 2,835.5mn uc. in 2023 and vs consensus estimate of 2,921.4mn uc. Sparkling vols were up 1.5%, energy vols +30.2% and coffee +23.9%.

§   Revenue per uc up 10.7% through price increases, promoted product mix sales and RGM initiatives.

§   Sales up 5.6% to €10.754bn vs €10.184bn in 2023 with strong organic growth partly offset by FX headwinds in the Emerging segment. M/S up by 150bps in NARTD and by 20bps in Sparkling vs 2023. The reading beat consensus estimate by 0.5% (expectation was for €10.698bn sales figure). In the established markets revenue grew by 3.3%, led by revenue per case expansion and positive volume. In developing markets, revenue was up by 12.7% with strong revenue per case expansion and good volume progress. Last, emerging market sales were up 23.3% with RGM initiatives offsetting FX headwinds and assisted by solid volume growth.

§   Comparable gross profit margin up 110 basis points to 36.1%, reflecting RGM initiatives and easing input cost inflation, with comparable COGS per unit case up 1.0%.

§   Higher operating expenses in the first half related to currency headwinds, as well as ongoing investment in the business through the year, resulted in comparable opex as a percentage of revenue up 70 basis points.

§   EBITDA settled at €1,604.1mn, up 6.5% y-o-y, lower than consensus estimate of €1,666.9mn with broadly flat EBITDA margin (14.9% vs 14.84).

§   CCHBC recorded a strong organic EBIT growth of 12.2% adjusted for FX headwinds or +10% FX included. Comparable EBIT settled at €1,192.1mn vs €1,083mn in 2023 and consensus estimate of €1,173.8mn, ie a positive 1.7% delta. Comparable EBIT margins improved 40 basis points on a reported basis to 11.1%, down 20 basis points on an organic basis. Established EBIT was flat, Developing EBIT +39.6% and emerging EBIT +13%.

§   Net income settled at €828.8mn from €764.2mn a year earlier, easily beating by 1.7% consensus estimate of €815.7mn.

§   FY:24 dividend at €1.03/share from €0.93/share in 2023 and estimate of €1.01/share (total €384.5mn reward). DY 2.7%, DPO at 45%.

§   OpCF at €1,391.9mbn vs €1,386.7mn in FY:23. CAPEX at €679.3mn vs €674.9mn in FY:23 (6.3% ratio over sales). FCF at €712.6mn vs €711.8mn in FY:23 and ahead of consensus figure of €663.4mn. ROIS at 18.3%, a 1.9% improvement over 2023.

§   Net debt at €1.53bn from €1.496bn, +2.3%.

§   FY:25 guidance: Sales growth in the tune of 6-8%, EBIT growth between 7% to 11%, negative FX impact on EBIT at €15-€35mn, no restructuring costs, effective tax rate 26-28%, net interest expenses at €40-€60mn.

With 2025 guidance optimistic and slightly ahead of what was expected to be announced and in the prospect or a rerating due to a potential solution between the USSR Ukraine conflict upgrades on the EPS front look likely. Currently consensus stands at FY:25 net profit of €896.1mn implying a PE of 15.9x. 

Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.

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