Beta Sec – Daily report 19-08-2024 Manos Chatzidakis

AthEx posted gains for a fifth session in the row, finally erasing the tumble (6.27%) on Monday, August 5 while momentum is gradually return to the previous levels with banking sector driving the market.

General index ended at 1,431.88, a gain of 0.62%, having risen as high as 1,438.67 (+1.10%) intraday. During this truncated week – the market was closed on Thursday– the index rose 3.51%. It has gained 10.73% since the beginning of the year. Turnover was €109.69, with 22,618,304 shares changing hands. Large caps gained 0.65% and mid-caps 0.93%. The biggest gainers among blue chips were construction group Ellaktor (3.27%), National Bank (2.40%), Titan (2.39%), OTE (1.43%) and Piraeus Bank (1.32%). Losing large caps were led by cosmetics firm Sarantis (1.89%), Autohellas (1.43%) and PPC (0.95%). Of the 118 traded stocks, 69 ended with gains, 27 with losses and 22 ended unchanged. Volume leaders were Eurobank (4,223,771 shares) and Piraeus Bank (3,917,493). Value leaders were National Bank (€27.89m) and Piraeus (€15.59m).

Despite seasonal pattern we expect the positive vibes from abroad to keep the market afloat and investors to continue their selective stance. 

Greece/PDMA: Public Debt Agency will auction €500mn treasury bills with 6-month duration on August 21. Settlement date on August 23.

Greece/Budget 2025: In the next few days, the financial staff of the government enters the final stretch to finalise the size of the 2025 budget as the meetings begin to take the decisions that will reflect the main priorities of the economic policy for the coming year. The new budget will be an exercise in balancing between the obligations to comply with the new fiscal rules that set a 3% limit on the growth of primary expenditure in 2025 and the need to continue the policy of supporting low incomes, as the government has already announced, alongside the further reduction of tax burdens. In the equation should be added the coverage of basic categories of expenses which include the expenses for the equipment, for the new recruitments that have been announced and for the awarding of new pensions, as well as those related to dealing with the phenomena of climate change.

The main announcements on the economic policy of 2025 are expected to be made by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) in early September. In any case, however, the government has announced that they will not be characterised by the logic of benefits, they will be balanced based on the potential of the economy and the needs of society.

The Finance Ministry has already announced that at the end of the year, an additional allowance will be given to pensioners who do not receive annual increases due to personal differences. In this context, given the positive course of this year’s budget, it is expected to examine the possibility of supporting other vulnerable groups of low-wage and low-pensioners. There are also proposals to widen the reduction in social security contributions that have been announced and foresee a reduction of 0.5% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2027.

The fiscal targets of the new budget will be harmonized with the forecasts of the Stability and Development Program 2024-2025. It is predicted that the primary surplus for 2025 and the following years will be 2.1% of GDP. This is a condition for the further reduction of public debt, which is expected to fall this year to 143% of GDP.

AthEx/July Stats: ATHEX announced its market statistics data for July 2024. In detail:

§  Transactions Value in July 2024 reached €2,208.42m down by 5.49% since the previous month when transactions value reached €2,336.66m., while compared to the same month of the previous year when transactions value was €1,979.59m there was an increase of 11.56%.

§  Foreign investors had outflows of €25.75m. In the seven-month period foreign investors had inflows of €405.9m.

§  Foreign Investors accounted for 57.9% of total transactions’ value during July 2024 (compared to 61.0% during the previous month).

§  The allocation of the total Value of Assets Under Custody at the end of end of July 2024, was set: foreign investors held 65.41% of the total value, while domestic investors held 34.39%. Excluding HFSF foreign investors held 66.63%.

§  The countries of tax residency holding the highest Value of Assets Under Custody (individual segregated accounts) were U.S.A. (total value of assets €13.49 bil.), Cyrpus (total value of assets €10.83 bil.) and the Germany (total value of assets €5.97bn).

Greece/Budget Execution: Tax revenue in the first seven months of the year was significantly higher than the budgetary target, the Ministry of Economy and Finance said. In particular, tax revenue amounted to 36.993 billion euros, which is €2.317 billion or 6.7 percent higher than the target in the 2024 budget. Most of the revenue derives from income tax. In July tax revenues amounted to €7.794 billion euros, €1.059 billion euros or 15.7 percent above target. The primary result on an adjusted cash basis was a surplus of €5.683 billion, against a primary surplus target of €1.655 million. 

Ble Kedros: The REIT trades today ex FY:23 net dividend €0.03827/share.  

PPC: Reportedly, the installation of first batch of smart meters has been completed at buildings and businesses that are high energy users. This will allow the use of dynamic pricing starting the September allowing those heavy energy users to optimise energy usage within the day. This will ultimately contribute to reducing the supply – demand imbalances during the night and midday.