Beta Sec – Daily report 20.02.2025 – Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight – Buybacks

Correction Part I: The rising sequence of five sessions ended on Wednesday for the main index of AthEx, as profit taking along with the negative trend across European markets prevailed after mid-session. Despite a very likely ceasefire agreement between Moscow and Kiev a new round of tariffs from April 2, with cars, medicines and semiconductors (microchips) coming into the frame weighed on investors sentiment.

General index closed at 1,613.78 points, shedding 0.71% from Tuesday’s 1,625.41 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.60%, ending at 3,948.97 points. The banks index dropped 0.73%, as Alpha declined 1.46%, National eased 1.11%, Piraeus fell 0.53% and Optima lost 0.43%. Eurobank stayed put. OTE telecom gave up 1.97% and Athens International Airport conceded 1.82%, while Jumbo collected 1.31%. In total 43 stocks notched up gains, 83 showed losses and 35 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €150.3m, up from Tuesday’s €148.8 m.

As for today we expect the market to continue digesting levels, weakness on foreign markets may weight and shape domestic trend accordingly.

Greece/PDMA: During the auction of EUR 500 mln of 26W T-Bills conducted yesterday, the total bids reached EUR 1.105 mln and the amount finally accepted was EUR 600 mln. No additional non-competitive bids will be accepted on February 20, 2025.Settlement date is February 21, 2025. Coverage ratio at 2.21x vs 2.36x in the previous relevant auction (January 22). Coupon at 2.195 vs 2.45% previously.

Greece/ Enterprises Turnover: 2024 ended on a positive note for the turnover of Greek businesses. According to data announced by the Hellenic Statistical Authority ELSTAT, for all businesses and activities in the economy, the turnover amounted to 472.72 billion euros in 2024, marking an increase of 4.1% compared to 2023, when it had reached 454.24 billion euros.

The largest increase in turnover in 2024, compared to 2023, was shown by: enterprises in the Construction sector (+15.8%) and the Administrative and Support Activities sector (+14.0%), while on the contrary, enterprises in the Electricity, Natural Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply sector showed a decrease of 9.2%. For all enterprises and activities in the economy, turnover amounted to 124.3 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2024, recording an increase of 4.2% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.

The largest increase in turnover in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 was experienced by businesses in the Real Estate Management sector, by 18.2%, while businesses in the Manufacturing sector experienced a decrease of 1.1%.According to ELSTAT data, for the enterprises of the economy as a whole, obliged to double-entry accounting bookkeeping, for which data is available on a monthly basis, turnover in December 2024 climbed to 36.74 billion euros, recording an increase of 8.1% compared to December 2023, when it had reached 33.979 billion euros.

The largest increase in turnover in December 2024 compared to December 2023 was experienced by enterprises in the Construction sector (17.4%), while the smallest increase was experienced by enterprises in the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation sector (0.1%). 

OLTH: LeonidsPort’s voluntary public offer for 21% of PPA is expiring today. Belterra, owned by Ivan Savvidis, has made continuous share purchases, above 28 euros, while the offered price from the Dreyfus family is 27 euros.

In other news, the international tender to privatize (67%) the Volos port authority will be cancelled, after a decision by the government and the country’s semi-autonomous privatization agency. Recall that highest bidder was ThPA, with an offer of 51 million euros. Another bidder, Goldair Cargo A.E. – Goldair Handling Α.Ε., had filed a legal challenge in the tender, after having submitted a bid of 25 million euros.

The latter cited a “conflict of interest” in challenging the highest bidder. Also other press state that, ThPa, Dimera Land & Property Investments Ltd and the Greek State (specifically, the Ministry of Justice), have signed a sub-concession agreement for the use of premises for the accommodation of the services of the Thessaloniki Court of Appeal in buildings within the Port facilities.

The agreement provides for the long-term sub-concession of premises with a total area of approximately 9,000 sq m, located within the Port of Thessaloniki, opposite the Courthouse. The premises to be granted are to be suitably configured for the agreed use and delivered within 18 months.

Metlen (FY:24 review): Metlen announced a solid set of results coming in line with estimates in the underlying profitability. Dividend proposal at 1.5 eur/share (div. yield at 4%). The small miss in bottom line is attributed to higher depretiation charges that reached €163m vs. €113m a year ago (+44%). In details:

§   Turnover amounted to €5,683m, compared to €5,492m in 2023, despite the significant de-escalation of energy and natural gas prices.

§   EBITDA reached a new all-time high of €1,080m up 7% y-o-y, compared to €1,014m in 2023.

§   Net Profit after minorities was €615m vs. €623m in 2023. The corresponding Earnings per Share came in at €4.46 from €4.51 in 2023.

§   Proposed dividend €1.50 per share. It is noted that the final dividend amount will be adjusted upwards, taking into account the treasury shares on the ex-dividend date.

§   Net Debt, on an adjusted basis, came in at €1,776m, excluding non-recourse debt and related cash. Despite the intensive CAPEX program that is in full swing, adjusted Net Debt to EBITDA stood at 1.7x, in line with METLEN’s financial policies.

As per segment:

§   Energy Sector reported turnover of €4,572m, representing 81% of the Company’s total turnover, remained at the same levels with 2023. EBITDA stood at €753m, decreased by 2% compared to €766m in 2023.

§   Metals Sector reported turnover of €857m, representing 15% of the Company’s total turnover, posting a 9% decrease on a year-on-year basis. EBITDA stood at €297m, increased by 20% compared to 2023.

§   Regarding the construction and concessions activity, EBITDA amounted to €50m compared €18m in 2023, posting an increase of 178%. The backlog of infrastructure projects is approaching €1 billion, while including projects that are in an advanced stage of contracting, it reaches €1.4 billion.

In other news the group announced a breakthrough agreement with Rio Tinto, which is expected to have a twofold benefit for the company as it enhances its bauxite security of supply, while ensuring future profitability from the incremental alumina quantities (+ 400kt per annum), under competitive terms, with one of the largest companies in the sector globally. This 11-year strategic partnership, bulletproofs new large investment’s (announced in January) exceptional returns, while strengthens METLEN’s competitive position and deepens the Company’s presence in the global alumina market.

METLEN, starting from 2027-28, is expected to increase its bauxite production by more than 65%, covering a large portion of its bauxite needs, while nearly doubling alumina’s third party sales. Moreover, the company is entering a new market, that of Gallium, which on top of the significant contribution to the Company’s profitability, will enhance substantially Metal’s Segment quality of earnings.

Capital Day: An extensive presentation of the company’s prospects and the large-scale investment program included in the company’s 3rd transformation (code-named Big 3) will be presented at the Capital Markets Day (CMD) which will be held in a special room after a relevant invitation at the London Stock Exchange around on 28th of April 2025.

Overall a decent set as the group delivered a record level EBITDA for 6^th straight year with satisfactory margins. Metlen trades at 7.5x forward PE and 7x its EV/EBITDA. A conference call is scheduled today after market, focus on key trends for major business lines in FY:25, metals expansion plan and scheduling of LSE listing.

The following table summarise results vs. estimates:

Conference Call Details 20/02 17:00 GR-Time:

§   GR + 30 211 180 2000 or +30 210 94 60 800

§   UK + 44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   US + 1 516 447 5632

Greece/Economy: Electronic transactions recorded a double-digit increase of 10.7% in 2024, compared to 2023. According to the Ministry of National Economy and Finance, this significant increase in electronic transactions – from 61.1 billion to 67.7 billion euros – was recorded mainly in the second half of the previous year, when the interconnection of POS with cash registers was completed, an emblematic project to combat tax evasion.

Cenergy Holdings: CH announced that its cable subsidiary Hellenic Cables was awarded a contract for the Silver Run Expansion Project in the USA. The project is owned by Silver Run Electric LLC, an affiliate of LS Power, a leading development, investment, and operating company focused on the North American power and energy infrastructure sector, and its wholly owned subsidiary, LS Power Grid, a national electric transmission system developer, owner, and operator.

The contract was signed with Aqueos Marine, Inc., a subsidiary of Michels Construction, Inc., a well-known contractor for the construction of energy and infrastructure projects. It includes the supply of 21km of single core, AC high voltage 230kV submarine XLPE insulated power cables. The cables will form part of a critical power transmission line between New Jersey and Delaware, across the Delaware River.

Under the scope of this contract, Hellenic Cables will be responsible for the design, manufacturing and testing of the 230kV submarine cables, as well as the supply of related cable accessories and spare materials. The submarine cables will be manufactured at Hellenic Cables’ vertically integrated, state-of-the-art production plant in Corinth, Greece. Manufacturing is set to be completed in H1 2026.

Titan: Titan agreed to divest from its 75% stake in its Turkey operations, ie through its 75% participation Adocim Cimento Beton Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S, to Mugla Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S (50% stake sell) and to Yurt Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S (25% stake sell) for $87.5mn. The cement assets included in the divestment comprise an integrated cement plant and a cement terminal, and related infrastructure.

Employees associated with these operations will transition as part of the agreement, ensuring continuity for customers and stakeholders. The transaction will complete in Q2:25 and constitutes part of Titan’s global strategy ratification and rationalization. This divestment is part of TITAN’s Group broader strategy to strengthen its portfolio and seek reinvestment opportunities. The Group will continue to operate cement grinding and supplementary cementitious assets in other parts of Turkey.

Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.