Beta Sec – Daily report 20-05-2025 (Market Comment – In the Spotlight – Buybacks – PPC: Results Q1:25 preview)

Selective buying on fresh earnings reports may keep rotation interest active. Therefore, we expect fresh highs and a moderate positive session.

The upgrade of Greece’s outlook from “stable” to “positive” by Fitch Ratings and the continued flow of positive corporate news and results maintained the positive momentum at AthEx on Monday and took the benchmark to yet another 15-year high. Agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union on various commercial and trade affairs also provided optimism in European markets.

General index closed at 1,810.72 points, adding 0.37% to Friday’s 1,804.06 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.18%, ending at 4,490.63 points, though mid-caps contracted 0.19%. The banks index also declined, by just 0.07%, on Alpha dropping 0.85%, while Optima rose 1.07%, Piraeus fetched 0.22% and National grabbed 0.05%. Eurobank was a non-mover.

In total 68 stocks boasted gains, 64 posted losses and 29 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €175m, up from last Friday’s €171.5 m.

Greece/Economy: The Greek economy expanded by 2.3% in 2024 and is projected to grow at a similar rate in 2025, while in 2026 GDP will reach 2.2%, according to the European Commission’s Spring forecast. Consumer spending and investment supported by EU funding are seen as the primary driving forces for the rise in Greek GDP. Inflation is forecast to fall to 2.8% this year and further ease to 2.3% by 2026. The jobless rate, 10.1% in 2024, is forecast to continue its downward trend, settling at 9.3% in 2025 and 8.7% in 2026. The general government balance showed a surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2024. This is projected to dip to 0.7% in 2025 before rebounding to 1.4% in 2026. Supported by robust nominal GDP growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to continue declining, reaching 140.6% by 2026. In 2025, the general government surplus is expected to decline to 0.7% of GDP. 

Greece/Travel Stats: Passenger traffic at all Greek airports recorded a 9.2% increase in the first four months of 2025. According to the statistics of the Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority (HCAA), passenger traffic reached 13,804,391 in January-April 2025, compared to 12,645,721 passengers in the corresponding period of 2024. Regarding the number of aircraft arrivals and departures (domestic and international flights) in the first four months of 2025, at all 39 airports in the country, whose air traffic control is mainly exercised by the HCAA, an increase of 6.5% was recorded compared to 2024. Specifically, in total, during the period January-April 2025, there were 116,707 flights, compared to 109,603 flights in the first four months of 2024. Passenger traffic at the 24 airports managed by the Hellenic Aviation Authority (Iraklio, Kalamata, Alexandroupoli, Limnos, Astypalaia, Ioannina, Chios, Kozani, Kastoria, Karpathos, Kythira, Milos, Skyros, Nea Anchialos, Paros, Syros, Araxos, Naxos, Kalymnos, Ikaria, Kastelorizo, Kasos, Leros and Sitia) increased by 14% in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. 

Aegean Air:  The air carrier goes today ex FY:24 gross dividend €0.804/share, net €0.7638/share. Payment starts on May 26. 

Titan Cement: The group completed the sale of 75% of Adocim Cimento Beton Sanayi ve Ticaret SA in Eastern Turkey. The sale had been announced on February 19, after which the group received the necessary regulatory approvals. Titan will retain the operation of the cement-grinding facilities and supplementary cementitious materials in other regions of the country. The sale is part of Titan Group’s greater strategy to strengthen its portfolio, according to company’s statement.

Retail Sector: Reportedly, supermarket Q1:25 sales reached €3.27bn up by 6.4% y-o-y or c. €200m more than in Q1:24.

GEKTERNA: According to press, the percentage of completion of construction works in the new airport in Kasteli in Crete (Greek State – 45.9% stake, GEK Terna – 32.46% and GMR – 21.64%) is now at c. 55%.

Fais Holding: FY:24 ex-dividend (gross €0.04/share) date June 19. Dividend payment June 25. Record date June 20. 

Attica Holding: The ferry operator sold its Crete 1 vessel for €3.6mn and will book a €0.5mn capital gain in its 2025 results.

Lamda Development: Q1:25 on May 28 post market.

Elval Halcor: Q1:25 results on May 21 post market close.

PPC (Results Q1:25 preview): PPC is set to announce results today after market followed by a conference call. Consensus expects a flattish quarter on the back of seasonal effects. Seasonality concerns lower Hydro generation (c26% y-o-y) and lower wind factor in Romania. As such generation mix should affect margins given the lower contribution of large scale hydro’s. Top line is expected at €2.46bn up 27.4% y-o-y with EBITDA reaching €460m (+7.6% y-o-y) and net profits at €44m +9.5%. Top line is boosted by wholesale prices in Q1:25 (Greece up +68% y-o-y) while CO2 costs increased mainly to higher CCGT’s production (69%) in the quarter. Note that Q1:24 does not include Kotsovolos and RES assets in Romania therefore we expect a peak in OpEx accounting for higher employee’s costs. In other related news RAAEY decided the WACC for electricity distribution DEDDIE (PPC stake at 51%) in the period 2025-2028 which stands at 7.05% in 2025 and gradually declining to 6.84% in 2028, resulting a 4-year average of c7%. Additionaly 2 new Battery Energy storage facilities (BESS) with a total capacity of 98Mws to be constructed in former coal energy mines in Western Macedonia.

Guidance for FY:25 EBITDA stands at €2.0bn and as Q1:25 is expected to stand below the run rate focus in the conference call will be on updated outlook and the progress being made in RES development, data centers business plan and existing business lines (Fiber, Kotsovolos etc).

The following table summarise consensus estimates:

Conference Call details: 20/05 18:00 GR-Time

§   GR +30 213 009 6000

§   UK +44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   US +1 516 447 5632,

ACAG (Q1:25 results): Weak Q1:25 performance deriving from poor performance of the company’s Identity and Payment solutions segment (-22.4% to €44.4mn) due to the contraction of the Turkish payment card market, driven by cyclicality and normalization of stock levels after a skyrocketing past 5 years performance with 52% annual growth. Other Identity & Payment solution markets were in line with or above the previous year but could not offset the negative impact of the Turkish market. Excluding the effect from the Turkish market revenues of this category increased by 5.5%.Digital Technologies revenue grew by 21.5% to €7.2mn. Document Lifecycle Management revenue increased by 8.2% reaching €31mn. In more details:

§   Sales decelerated by 10% at €82.566mn vs €91.765mn in Q1:24.

§   EBITDA settled 17.5% lower to €10.4mn vs €12.612mn impacted by lower gross margin which resulted in EBITDA margin weakness to 12.6% vs 13.7% in Q1:24.

§   Net income dropped by c.61% coming in at €1.99mn compered to €5.1mn a year earlier.

§   Net Debt at €98.2mn compared to €95.6mn in FY:24 (+2.7%). Gross OpCF at €10.579mn compared to €12.294mn in Q1:24. OpCF at €3.1mn vs -€0.5mn in Q1:24 on WC management improvement. FCF €0.15K vs -€4.3mn in Q1:24.

§   CAPEX €2.9mn vs €3.78mn.

§   WC/Sales at 20.3% (FY:24 19.3%). Net Debt / EBITDA 1.9x.

§   Despite weak 2025 start, management is optimistic guiding for positive trajectory for FY:24, albeit a subdued H1:25 impacted as mentioned from the weak Turkish subsidiary performance, which will normalize in H2:25.

Other Q1:25 results:

Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.

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