Beta Sec – Daily report 21.03.2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

Despite spending most of the day in the red, the GI of the Greek stock market ended Thursday with marginal gains, after what was a mixed session that reversed the picture of the previous one: Banks, blue chips and the main index closed with small increases while the majority of stocks and the mid-cap index declined. Crucially, daily turnover remains at high levels, as Athinon Avenue retains the interest of investors with its opportunities for profit. 

The Athens Exchange (ATHEX) general index closed at 1,702.82 points, adding 0.09% to Wednesday’s 1,701.28 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.03%, ending at 4,204.95 points, though mid-caps contracted 0.34% to 2,577.94 points. The banks index improved just 0.02%, with National up 0.67%, while Piraeus dropped 0.79% and Optima gave up 0.77%. OPAP rose 2.68%, as Ellaktor slumped 3.31%. 

In total 43 stocks obtained gains, 64 sustained losses and 18 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €207.03mn, down from Wednesday’s €222.7mn. 

GI to digest current 14 years record high level assisted by investment interest on selected blue chips and banks. Alpha Bank’s placement today (2.3% of share capital) will weigh on the bank’s and banking index performance. FTSE  Rusell rebalancing with the inclusion of GEK Terna will boost turnover for one more day while derivatives expiration point to another day full agenda for the domestic market.  

Greece/Tourism: Arrivals and overnight stays in hotels, camping sites, and rental rooms recorded an uptick of 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively, in January 2025, according to provisional data released by Greece’s statistical authority (ELSTAT). According to data from the relevant survey, tourist arrivals at accommodations in January 2025 reached 742,865, while overnight stays totaled 1,656,673. This represents an increase of 3.6% in arrivals and 2.7% in overnight stays compared to the same month in 2024. A closer look at the ELSTAT figures shows that, in January 2025, foreign visitor arrivals rose by 6.3%, while their overnight stays increased by 5.1%. Domestic travelers also recorded an upward trend, with a 2.4% increase in arrivals and a 1.3% rise in overnight stays. Domestic tourists accounted for the majority of accommodation usage, making up 67.0% of total arrivals and 63.3% of overnight stays. The average length of stay for January 2025 stood at 2.2 nights. In hotels and campsites, domestic arrivals amounted to 447,011, reflecting a 2.6% increase, while foreign arrivals reached 228,594, up by 5.9%. Meanwhile, in rental accommodations, domestic arrivals stood at 51,005, marking a slight 0.8% rise, whereas foreign arrivals saw a significant increase of 11.9%, reaching 16,255.

Greece/Unemployment: Registered unemployment totaled 960,134 in February, down 5.6% from February 2024 and down 2.2% in comparison with January 2024, the Public Employment Service (DYPA) said in a report released on Thursday. The report said that 47.5% of registered unemployed (456,015) were long-term unemployed, 343,637 (35.8%) were men and 616,497 (64.2%) women. The 30-44 age group recorded the highest number of unemployed (300,797 or 31.3%). Among the country’s regions, Attica and Central Macedonia recorded the highest numbers (284,997 and 179,053 respectively). The number of people receiving unemployment benefits totaled 257,492 in February.

Greece/Industrial Turnover: The Overall Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) in January 2025 recorded an increase of 2.2% compared with the corresponding index of January 2024. The Overall Turnover Index in Industry in January 2024 had increased by 1.5% compared with the corresponding index in January 2023, the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) said on Thursday. On a monthly basis, though, the index posted a decline of 10.7% from December 2024.

Fais Group:  IPO expires today; electronic book closes tomorrow 16:00 GR-Time. The group will proceed with the offering of up to 11,375,625 shares to the public (of which up to 9,100,500 shares will be issued by the group, while up to 2,275,125 shares are to be sold by the existing shareholders. The maximum offering price has been set at €5.00 per share which would lead to net proceeds (after issuance costs) of €53m if subscribed fully (of which €42.4m for the group and €10.6m for the existing shareholders. The trading of new shares is expected to commence on ATHEX on March 27.

OPAP (FY/Q4:24 review): OPAP announced a particularly strong set of results coming ahead of our and consensus estimates by a wide margin. On the dividend front the remaining 0.80eur/share is above consensus but lower from our call (0.90 eur/share). However, note that OPAP has also completed recently a €150m buyback which somewhat lowered its capacity for a more generous dividend distribution. In total OPAP will distribute for FY:24 dividend of 1.40 eur/share yielding 8.1%. Despite the relatively conservative guidance we note that consensus forecasts for FY:25 stand way below FY:24 performance which excuses positive reviews and upgrades. We remain positive for the share and is our top-pick for 2025 with target price of 18.3 eur/share.

The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:

Bank of Cyprus: Carval stake in the bank dropped to 3.07% from 4.99% previously as March 18.

Alpha Trust Andromeda: AGM on April 14. Ex-dividend date May 19. Dividend record date May 20. Dividend payment June 13. Recall that FY:24 dividend announced stands at €0.32/share (gross).

Metlen: Capital Markets Day in London on April 28.

Alpha Bank: Placement of the banks 53mn shares (2.3% of share capital) at a price of €2.219/share by major shareholder Mr. Paulson to take place today.

Aegean Air: BoD decided to buy back up to €40mn of the company’s existing listed on the ASE bond between March 24, 2025 to March 12, 2026, which will be cancelled. During its previous bond share buy back Aegean bought 625 bonds (2024) which were also canceled.

Cenergy Holdings: Cenergy Holdings announced that Hellenic Cables, its cables segment, was awarded a contract for a turnkey contract by Réseau de Transport d’ Électricité (RTE), together with Asso.subsea, for the Dunkerque Offshore Wind Farm. The Dunkerque Offshore Wind Farm, with a planned capacity between 500 and 600 MW, will feature two 225kV HVAC export cable links which will enable the seamless transfer of clean energy to the French grid. Hellenic Cables will design, manufacture and supply 32km of submarine cables for the double submarine cable link, as well as 38km of underground cables for the tri-phased double underground cable link, supply submarine and underground cable accessories, perform on site jointing, testing and termination works and be responsible for the commissioning of the cable links. The installation partner Asso.subsea will be responsible for the transportation, laying and protection of the submarine cables links.

Jumbo: The company trades ex FY:24 special gross dividend €0.4667/share (or €0.47255/share adjusted for 1,687,198 treasury shares) or net €0.44893/share on March 24. Dividend record date March 26. Dividend payment March 31.

Papoutsanis: FY:24 results out on March 26 before market opening. AGM on April 24. Ex-dividend date April 28. Dividend record date April 29. Dividend payment May 5. H1:25 results on August 4. Recall that the company has already announced FY:24 top line which came in at €66.21mn, up 6.32% on a yearly basis. Regarding other P7L items we look for FY:24 EBITDA of €10.21mn, +10.7% and net income of €5.14mn, up 28.4%. FY:24 gross dividend expected at €0.10/share, of which the company has already distributed as interim Fy:24 div €0.03/share. So remaining dividend is expected to stand at €0.07/share. Remains with OUTPERFORM rating and TP €3.75/share trading at FY:25 PE11.5x and EV/EBITDA 7.8x.

Autohellas: AGM on April 8 to approve FY:24 gross dividend €0.85/share. CC regarding FY:24 financial performance on March 26 at 4pm local GR Time.

·        GR: + 30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800

·        UK: + 44 (0) 800 368 1063

·        USA: + 1 516 447 5632

·        INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

Alpha Trust Andromeda: The fund sold 100K treasury shares (2.74% of its share capital) at €6.5/share for a total consideration of €650K. Treasury stock remaining amounts to 90,904 shares or 2.49% of share capital.

Terna Energy (FY:24 results): Net Debt at €795.6mn vs €844.6mn in FY:23. Load factor at 30.8% vs 28.6% a year earlier.

 ¢    Buybacks

Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, Worldenergynews, AthEx.