Beta Sec – Daily report 22-01-2025- Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight- Buybacks

22 Ιανουαρίου, 2025

Market Comment

General Index is in short term technical overbought territory which may tempt for a more decisive profit taking. However, rotation interest may ease pressure as investors are focusing to upcoming Q4:24 results announcements.

AthEx recorded one more day of gains on Tuesday, the sixth in succession. Its benchmark climbed to highs unseen since April 2011, and the fact that it was the closing auctions that bolstered large caps is an indication of market’s appetite. The so-called “January effect” appears to be in full swing, though banks once again failed to match the pace of the main index possibly due to a profit taking as the sector outperformed index since end of 2024.

General index closed at 1,539.48 points, adding 0.56% to Monday’s 1,530.87 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.53%, ending at 3,758.45 points. The banks index grew 0.25%, as Eurobank climbed 1.06% and Alpha earned 0.14%, though Optima dropped 0.46%, Piraeus slipped 0.11% and National parted with 0.07%. Aegean Airlines advanced 5.75%, Titan Cement fetched 3.37% and Jumbo collected 2.22%. In total 54 stocks secured gains, 55 endured losses and 27 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 109.4 million euros, down from Monday’s €155.3m.

¢ In the Spotlight

Greece/PDMA: Today the Hellenic Republic will auction 26 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity July 25, 2025. The amount to be auctioned is 500 million euro. Settlement date is January 24, 2025. During the auction non – competitive bids can be submitted up to 20% of the auction amount. No additional non-competitive bids will be accepted on January 23, 2025.

Banking Sector: European Banking Authority launched its 2025 EU-wide stress test and released the macroeconomic scenarios. For Greece, the baseline scenario projects GDP growth of 2.5%, 2.3%, and 2.0% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. In contrast, the adverse scenario anticipates economic contraction in all three years, with GDP shrinking by -1.4%, -4.3%, and -0.5% over the same period.

Under the adverse scenario, inflation is forecasted at 4.4% in 2025, 3.9% in 2026, and 2.9% in 2027. The EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise at the beginning of August 2025. Due to ample capital buffers and strong recurring earnings we expect systemic peers to comfortably pass the test. Results will be published early August.

Greece/Tourism: In line with forecasts for another record year in tourism, Greece welcomed a total of 35 million travelers in the January-November 2024 period marking a 9.7% rise over the same 11-month period in 2023 when 31.9 million visited the country, according to the Bank of Greece (BoG). In the period under review, traveler flows, which exclude cruise passengers, grew by 10.2% through airports and by 9.6%, as did road border-crossing points. In the January-November 2023 period, travel receipts also increased by 4.9% year‑on‑year reaching a total of 21,266.9 million euros.

Central bank analysts attribute the positive performance to an increase in receipts generated by tourists from the EU, up by 6.3% to 11,713.5 million euros and to spending by non-EU nationals which was up by 0.5%. Driving tourism revenues for Greece in the given period were travelers from Germany with receipts up by 3.5% to 3,645.7 million euros; from Italy (+13.0% to 1,207.0 million euros); and from the US (+13.3% to 1,528.4 million euros).

In the same period, traveler spending from France dropped by 11.7% to 1,246.1 million euros; from the UK by 3.9% to 3,144.9 million euros; and from Russia by 53.3% to 14.6 million euros. According to the BoG data, average spending per trip in the period under review dropped by 5.4%.

Greece/Hotel Sector: Arrivals in tourist accommodation establishments amounted to 1,014,522 and nights spent amounted to 2,279,499 in November 2024, recording an increase of 2.9% in arrivals and 3.5% in nights spent when compared to the corresponding month of 2023, the Hellenic Statistical Authority announced on Tuesday. Specifically, in November 2024 compared with the corresponding month of 2023, an increase of 4.5% was observed in arrivals and of 5.2% in nights spent for non-residents, while an increase of 1.6% in arrivals and of 1.9% in nights spent was observed for residents.

The highest contribution in arrivals for the total of tourist accommodation establishments was observed for residents with 53.9% and in nights spent for non-residents with 50.2%. The average length of stay for all types of tourist accommodation establishments during November 2024, amounted to 2.2 days.

Economy: Greece’s public debt stood at 370.865 billion euros in the third quarter of 2024, from 371.483 billion euros in the third quarter of 2023, according to data by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). General government revenues amounted to 29.607 billion euros from 27.214 billion euros in the same period last year. Income and property taxes amounted to 6.311 billion euros from 5.936 billion euros. Social contributions rose to 8.102 billion euros from 7.449 billion euros in the third quarter of 2023.

Total general government expenditure totaled 26.340 billion euros compared to 25.831 billion euros in the same quarter of the previous year. Primary expenditure stood at 24.274 billion euros from 23.875 billion euros. Compensation of employees increased to 6.104 billion euros from 5.837 billion euros. Social benefits amounted to 11.257 billion euros from 10.722 billion euros and subsidies reached 709 million euros from 955 million euros in the third quarter of 2023.

Greece/Economy: The EU Council of Finance Ministers (Ecofin) has given Greece the green light to move ahead with proposed changes to its national recovery plan, paving the way for the accelerated implementation of key programs under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Greece’s Economy and Finance Minister Hatzidakis announced the news on Tuesday following an ECOFIN meeting in Brussels. During the meeting, EU finance ministers also approved revised national plans submitted by Cyprus and Spain.

Greek Finance Minister Mr. Hatzidakis said the decision will kickstart recovery fund absorption set to reach 64%. The revised plan concerns 3.13 billion euros in funding (1.35 billion euros in grants and 1.78 billion euros in loans). Upon the successful completion of the approval process, Greece will have received a total of 21.3 billion euros or 64% of the allocated Recovery Fund resources.

Papoutsanis (FY:24 trading update): the company announced yesterday sales figure performance for 2024 with sales ending at €66.2mn vs €62.3mn in FY:23, ie a 6.3% y-o-y growth. The figure is slightly higher than our FY:24 estimate of €65.55mn sales (+5.26%). In more details on a per segment basis:

§ Branded products sales accelerated 17% in 2024 to €19.8mn, spot on our estimate, representing 30% of consolidated revenues. Arkadi brand contributed the bulk of this rise as it advanced by 69% vs 2023 while also exports (+22%) took their tall in the segment’s performance. Own Papoutsanis brand advanced 6% more than offsetting antiseptics further deceleration (-14% vs 2023).

§ Hotel products rose 3.5% in 2024 smashing our pessimistic view for a decline of 10% (€9.8mn sales) to €11.3mn accounting for 17% of consolidated sales. Papoutsanis branded hotel products were up 9% driven by exports (+53%) while domestic branded hotel products sales rose 1%.

§ Private Label (PL) were down 2.8% to €24mn vs our call for 3.1% growth (to €25.45mn), downsizing H1:24 performance (-10%), courtesy of new cooperation agreement with a new multinational player. PL accounted for 36% of consolidated sales.

§ Industrial Sales (Soap noodles) came in 14% higher to €12.42mn, beating our call of 3.5% growth (€11.3mn), and accounting for 17% of consolidated sales.

§ Guidance for 2025 (top line) calls for double digit top line growth, again higher than our estimate of +.3% to €69.7mn, which we will have to adjust accordingly.

§ We will revisit our model to adjust our figures regarding 2025 sales guidance and update accordingly.

§ Based on our current estimates (FY:25 sales €70.88mn, EBITDA €11.24mn and Net income €5.9mn ie 6.26%, 12.3% and 18.2% growth respectively) the company trades at FY:25 PE11.4x, EV/EBITDA 7.8x, Net Debt/EBITDA 1.2% while bears a DY of 4.1%, €0.10/share vs 3.3% for 2024, €0.08/share. TP €3.8/share.

Alter Ego: IPO 3rd and last day today. IPO price range set between €3.7 – €4. IPO proceeds €57mn, net €50.8mn to finance new acquisitions, new content development and production and WC requirements.

Aktor Holdings: As of today, the trading of the right (INKATR) of the company ceases following the recent share capital increase carried out in the form of a rights issue. The expiration date of the pre-emption right’s subscription period is set on January 24, 2025.

Eurobank: The bank yesterday tapped international markets regarding the issue of a new Tier II 10.5 years bond callable after 5 years for €600mn. Total bids exceeded €1.7bn. Coupon set at Mid Swaps + 200bps (4.475) vs initial guidance for 4.67% to 4.72% (Mid Swaps + 220-250 bps).

Bank of Cyprus (financial calendar): FY:24 results out on February 17 before market open.

PPC (financial calendar): FY:24 results to be published on March 26. AGM on June 25. Ex-dividend July 21. Dividend record date July 22. Dividend payment July 25. Q1:25 results on May 15. H1:25 results on August 5. 9M:25 results on November 4.

¢ Buybacks