Beta Sec – Daily report 22-05-2025 ( Market Comment – In the Spotlight – Elvalhalcor (Results Q1:25 review) – Quest (Q1:25 results preview) )

Market Monitor

As for today we expect profit taking to prevail on the back of strong short term gains and negative international sentiment.

Despite the decline on Wall Street and concerns about further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, AthEx remained on its growth path for another session on Wednesday, taking its benchmark to another 15-year high. A host of blue chips insisted on adding to their recent gains and rallied in the latter half of the session, peaking in the closing auctions, unlike PPC, whose first-quarter financial results announcement led to a drop.

General index closed at 1,835.51 points, adding 0.45% to Tuesday’s 1,827.51 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.52%, ending at 4,567.40 points. Banks index improved 1.03%, as National earned 1.93%, Optima collected 1.45%, Piraeus grabbed 1.16% and Alpha obtained 0.75%, though Eurobank slipped 0.11%. Athens Airport rose 3.11% and Ellaktor grew 2.34%, while PPC gave up 3.34%. In total 76 stocks reported gains, 51 showed losses and 34 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €214.4m, up from Tuesday’s €199.7m.

¢     In the Spotlight 

Greece/Unemployment: In April 2025, the total number of unemployed persons registered with the Public Employment Service (DYPA) amounted to 811,324 in total, a decrease of 59,990 people (-6.9%) compared to the corresponding month of April 2024 and a decrease of 114,717 people (-12.4%) compared to the previous month of March 2025. According to the statistics of registered unemployment at DYPA, of the total 811,324 registered unemployed, 440,095 (54.2%) are registered with the DYPA for a period of 12 months or more and 371,229 (45.8%) are registered with the DYPA for a period of less than 12 months. Men numbered 279,660 persons (34.5%) and women numbered 531,664 persons (65.5%). The 30-44 age category had the largest number of registered unemployed among the age categories, which amounted to 247,448 persons (30.5%). The region of Attica and the region of Central Macedonia recorded the highest number of registered unemployed, reaching 263,385 people (32,5%) and 160,313 people (19,8%), respectively.

Energy Sector: According to press, most new plants activated in the first four months of 2025 operated under fixed tariffs rather than participating directly in the energy market. Of the roughly 750 MW added to the grid, 550 MW came from projects with guaranteed revenue, while 200 MW were merchant-based. This trend aligns with industry forecasts, which suggest that developers remain confident in launching merchant projects, despite the challenges posed by recent RES curtailments and periods of zero or negative wholesale prices.

By 2025, around 1,200 MW of merchant RES projects are expected to come online, close to last year’s 1,007 MW, according to monthly reports from RES market operator DAPEEP. Still, projects with tariffs are likely to lead new capacity again this year. DAPEEP estimates 1,478 MW of new RES capacity will come from tariff-supported projects by 2025. However, the pool of mature projects with guaranteed revenue is shrinking. No new tariff auctions have taken place since September 2022, and the deadline for administratively set prices for most small PVs expired in November 2024. Only a few small-scale projects, such as those in former lignite-based local economies, can still secure fixed tariffs in 2025.

As a result, 2026 is seen as a turning point when merchant RES projects are expected to take the lead in new capacity additions.Meanwhile, the addition of 750 MW in Q1 brings Greece’s operational RES capacity to 16 GW, surpassing the 15.5 GW milestone set in the updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for 2025.

Loulis: AGM approved FY:24 gross dividend distribution €0.30/share, net €0.285/share. Ex-dividend date May 26. Dividend record date May 27. Payment May 30.

PPC: AGM on June 25. FY:24 gross dividend €0.4/share.

Alpha Bank: AGM cleared FY:24 gross cash dividend distribution €0.03/share (net €0.02883/share). Ex-dividend date May 23. Dividend record date May 26. Dividend payment May 29.

Evropi Holdings: Rights issue of €68.4mn fully covered. 56,948,627 new shares to be issued.

Elvalhalcor (Results Q1:25 review): Elval posted a strong set of Q1:25 results on the back of remarkable performance in Aluminium segment and lower funding cost. In more details:

§   Sales volume by 1.5% with turnover reaching €930.9m, up by 14.0% vs Q1:24, mainly affected by the increase in metal prices.

§   Gross profit amounted to €82.3m vs. €53.2m Q1:24, while EBITDA stood at €70.8m vs. €44.8m Q1:24, positively affected by the accounting metal result, which amounted to gains of €7.0m in Q1:25 vs. losses of €4.2m for Q1:24. On adjusted level EBITDA increased by 31.0%, reaching €63.9m vs €48.7m.

§   Consolidated net financial result (cost) reached €9.7m in Q1:25, declining by 22.4% vs. €12.5m. This is attributed to the decrease in net debt by €95.5m from Q1:24, as a result of increased operational profitability and decrease in interest rates. At the end of the period, 70% of the total debt was at a fixed interest rate.

§   Consolidated profits after tax stood at €41.6m in Q1:25 versus €14.6m in Q1:24. Consolidated profit after tax and non-controlling interest amounted to €40.3m in Q1:25 or (€0.1074 per share), compared to €12.9m in the respective period of the prior year (or €0.0345 per share).

§   Total CapEx in Q1:25 reached €0.48bn., with the largest part of these investments, specifically 89%, being investments allocated to RES, flexible generation, and electricity distribution projects. Total Capex now covers 65% of the initial plan and PPC aims to invest another €3.5bn in FY:25.

§   Aluminium Segment: In Q1:25, sales volume of the Aluminium Segment increased by 3.1% compared to Q1:24, primarily driven by the packaging sector, despite the international challenges. Aluminium’s Segment revenue increased to €470.4m compared to €399.6m in Q1: 2024, mainly due to higher average LME metal prices. a-EBITDA stood at a profit of €39.1m in Q1:25 versus €20.5m in Q1:24, up by €18.7m. Earnings before taxes of the Segment amounted to gains of €33.2m against losses of €5.1m in Q1:24 and the accounting metal gains amounting to €11.8m compared to losses of €6.8m in Q1:24. The investment program of the segment is in lower levels compared to previous years, with €11.6m paid in the first quarter of 2025 compared to €13.4m in the corresponding period last year.

§   Copper Segment:  Revenue of the Copper Segment reached €460.5m versus €417.0m in Q1:24, positively affected by the increased average metal prices in LME. Demand in the construction, transportation and industrial applications sectors remained reduced, affecting the Segment’s sales volume, which decreased by 2% in the first quarter of the year compared to the corresponding period last year. Changes in sales volumes across the various product categories showed mixed signs, however, it is worth noting that sales volume directed to the construction sector increased. Product mix and increased energy prices negatively affected the Segment’s profitability with the a-EBITDA reached €24.8m in Q1:25 compared to €28.3m in Q1:24 which was partially offset by improved results from scrap consumption in production. The accounting metal results for the period amounted to losses of €4.8m compared to profits of €2.6m in the respective prior year period, as a result of the de-escalation of average LME prices following the announcements of the imposition of tariffs. Profits before tax, amounted to €12.1m versus €19.8m in Q1:24. The investments for Q1:25 amounted to €4.5m, compared to €6.6m in the corresponding period last year.

§   Outlook: The group said that disruptions in international trade, increases in raw material and metal prices, ongoing geopolitical crises, supply chain problems and the maintenance of interest rates and inflation at high levels, continue to negatively affect the international economic environment. The Group has so far successfully coped with the challenges, achieving strong performance, having successfully managed its working capital needs and achieving a reduction in its net debt.

§   AGM today, with Ex-date on May 26 (Div. 0.09 eur/share) with payment start on June 27.

§   Overall a strong start for the year with good readings in liquidity and margins. Elval trades at a low 6.8x PE:25 and 6x its EV/EBITDA.

The following table summarise results:

The briefing regarding the Q1’25 trading update of the Company will be held on today, May 22nd, 2025, at 15:00 Greece local time via a live video and audio webcast.

WEB: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_fR460AyEQ8O5MCJAzRImxQ#/registration

Ekter: New €3.7mn hospital project awarded to the construction firm. Backlog remains above the €100mn threshold.

Aegean Air: On May 20, Aegean bought 242 of its outstanding bonds at par value for €243.718K. total bonds processed 370.

Motodynamics: AGM on June 12. FY:24 dividend €0.13/share.

Gek Terna: AGM on June 11. 2024 dividend (gross) €0.40/share.

Quest (Q1:25 results preview): Quest (Q1:25 results review): The company reported an in line set of Q1:25 performance, yet we missed the net income line due to increased minorities stemming from ACS stake decrease. More specific:

Sales advanced by 8.2% to €328mn compared to €303.1mn in Q1:24, 2% lower than our call of €334.8mn.

§   EBITDA landed 13.7% higher to €21.2mn vs €18.6mn a year earlier, 1% ahead of our estimate for €21mn. EBITDA margin resilient, at 6.5%, compared to 6.2% in Q1:24.

§   Net income settled 6.8% higher to €9.1mn, +€600K compared to last year’s €8.5mn and €1.2mn lower than our prediction of €10.3mn on increased minorities (from ACS 20% stake sale).

§   In the commercial segment, sales increased by 7.8%, while earnings before taxes (EBT) rose by 50% compared to the same period in 2024. The growth in EBT is attributed both to the consolidation of Benrubi’s results (for 2 months), and to the recovery of the air conditioning market, which performed better than the relatively weak first quarter of the previous year. Additionally, the improvement in EBT was supported by the decline in Euribor rates, which led to a reduction in the cost of working capital.

§   In the IT services segment, Sales augmented at a double-digit pace (15.8%), and EBT by 13.2%. Demand for IT services remained strong, driven by the high number of digital transformation projects of the private and public sector. Roughly 50% of sales stem from international activities with backlog remaining high above the €500mn level reassuring healthy execution going forward.

§   For the courier segment, sales remained flat, accompanied by a single-digit increase in earnings before taxes (+5.6%), driven by improved company productivity. The growth rate of this business segment follows  the trend of the e-commerce market, which showed limited growth during the first quarter, not expected to differentiate for the remainder of the year.

§   Finally on the RES front, sales were lower by 9.7% due to unfavorable weather conditions and cuts in production imposed by the regulator to avoid a black out, while earnings before taxes (EBT) remained at last year’s levels, mainly due to the reduction courtesy of Euribor drop.

§   The Group’s net cash position stood at €23.2mn compared to net cash of €82.1mn as of 31/12/2024. The change is attributed to increased WC needs (common in H1:25 in Quest’s cycle) and due to the impact of approximately €27mn from the acquisition of 70% of Benrubi S.A. Benrubi is incorporated since February 1, 2025 and contributed €3.5mn to sales, €0.6mn to EBITDA (17.15% EBITDA margin), €0.5mn to EBT, and €0.4mn to EAT.

§   Company has guided for mid-single digit sales growth in FY:25, EBITDA in excess of €100mn and Net income to accelerate higher than top line (high single to low double digit in our interpretation).

§   Focus during CC will be on the timeframe for the completion of transaction for ACS sale and the potential impact of this in shareholders’ remuneration with our calculation generating a potential total €2/share shareholders’ reward.

Remains OVERWEIGHT. FY:25 multiples: PE: 12.6x, EV/EBITDA 7.4x.

The following table summarise results vs. our Q1:25 estimates:

CC Details: Thursday, 22nd May 2025, at 15:30 Athens time / 13:30 UK time

§   GR: + 30 213 009 6000 or + 30 210 94 60 800

§   UK & INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA: + 1 516 447 5632

§   WEB: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=9tQCH2T9