Greece/PDMA: Today, the Hellenic Republic will auction 26-Week T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity on June 27, 2025, the Public Debt Management Agency announced. The amount to be auctioned is 500 million euros. Settlement date is December 27, 2024 (T+2).
Market Comment
The anticipated transaction of the package of shares in Terna Energy, with 14.6% changing hands eventually on the day, sent turnover soaring at the Greek stock market last Friday, accounting for two thirds of the day’s action at the ASE. The December triple-witching, the index rebalancing and the significant drop on European bourses contributed to turnover exceeding €0.5bn.
- The Athens Exchange (ATHEX) GI closed at 1,452.50 points, shedding 0.26% from Thursday’s 1,456.28 points. On a weekly basis it declined 1.14%. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.27%, ending at 3,536.70 points, while the banks index expanded 0.05%. FTSE mid Cap declined 0.56% to 2,306.38 level.
Viohalco gave up 3.30%, Aegean Airlines conceded 1.66%, Autohellas gave up 1.33% and Metlen shed 1.18%, whereas Terna Energy expanded 0.96% and National Bank earned 0.80%.
- With limited trading sessions ahead before New year (4), we expect a subdued session today with turnover retreating to below the €100mn threshold.
Sentiment is on the upbeat though following US inflation cheer up data and international M&A Activity (Honda- Nissan potential merger).
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/Economy: Greece’s growth rate is expected to reach 2.5% in 2025, according to the monetary report of the Bank of Greece. Based on the current forecasts, the GDP growth rate is expected to reach 2.3% in 2024, accelerate to 2.5% in 2025 and decline slightly to 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
Consumption will play an important role, while investments and exports will continue to contribute positively. Inflation is expected to drop to 3.0% in 2024, from 4.2% in 2023, reflecting a significant slowdown in food inflation. By 2026, inflation will converge towards the ECB’s target of 2%, but will remain slightly above it.
Services inflation is expected to be more persistent than inflation in other HICP components, mainly reflecting expected increases in labor costs. Finally, core inflation is expected to decline significantly to 3.5% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025.
Greece/Economy: Following the approval of the revised Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan “Greece 2.0” by the European Commission, the time has come for the submission of the fifth request, which concerns the payment of a total amount of 3.1 billion euros from the Recovery Fund.
This amount is divided into 1.3 billion euros in grants and 1.8 billion euros in loans, compared to 2.3 billion euros, which was the initial plan. The changes made to Greece 2.0 in order to submit the fifth payment request are related to the new home subsidy program for the provision of low-interest housing loans to citizens up to 50 years of age, the home renovation program, and the lower number of requests from businesses to participate in the business subsidy program.
In order for Greece to submit the request for 3.1 billion euros, 32 milestones had to be met. Given that there are still two years before the expiration of the Recovery and Resilience Fund in 2026, the requirements are increasing. Therefore, in order for Greece to submit the sixth request within 2025, it will have to meet 44 milestones in terms of the grants.
Greece/Unemployment: Registered unemployment totaled 962,050 individuals in November, down 6.4% from November 2023 and up 15.5% from October 2024, the Public Employment Service (DYPA) said in a report released on Friday.
The report said that 47.9% of registered unemployed (460,387) were long-term jobless, of whom 343,209 (35.7%) were men and 618,841 (64.3%) were women. The 30-44 age group recorded the highest number of unemployed (302,033 or 31.4%).
Among the country’s regions, Attica and Central Macedonia recorded the highest numbers (290,410 and 178,993 respectively). The number of people receiving unemployment benefits totaled 170,851 in November.
Motor Oil: Shares trade ex-interim dividend of €0.3088 /share (net €0.29337). Payment on January 3rd 2025.
Premia: The REIT concluded the acquisition of 2 hotels from Nordic Leisure Travel Group (NLTG) for €112.5mn. Nordic will retain the operation of the 2 hotels for 15 years with a renew option embedded for 5+5 years for an annual rental income of €8.5mn (annually CPI adjusted). NLGT will also acquire a 9.66% stake in Premia through a rights issue of 7.628mn shares and 1.563mn treasury stock transfer.
Coca Cola HBC: The new General Manager of Coca-Cola Hellenic for Greece and Cyprus, Svetoslav Atanasov, said that “Greece emerged as the best bottler worldwide in the group in 2023. This year we continue to grow and we aspire to maintain the positive trajectory in 2025 as well.”
As for the course of 2024, the estimates for the last quarter of the year, which includes the strong Christmas period, are that the positive trend of the nine months will be maintained. It is recalled that Coca Cola’s revenues showed a growth rate of 13.7% in the nine months of 2024 and amounted to 8.22 billion euros.
In Greece, sales volumes increased by a mid-single digit percentage, benefiting from the implementation of the well-planned strategy during the summer season. On the possibility of new price increases in 2025, the company’s head said that prices of basic raw materials such as coffee and juices are showing significant increases.
The company is examining its pricing policy by category, however, it is absorbing part of the increases since it focuses on maintaining consumer affordability for its portfolio.
Alpha Bank: Alpha Services and Holdings, announced on 20 December 2024 that it has entered into a binding agreement with investment funds managed by Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP. The agreement is for the sale of 95% of the mezzanine and junior subordinated notes to be issued under the GAIA I and GAIA II securitizations.
The two portfolios comprise mainly Non-Servicing Exposures (NSEs) with a total Gross Book Value of EUR 1.1 billion. Alpha Bank will hold 100% of the senior bonds, which will benefit from the provisions of the government’s Hercules Guarantee Scheme for Securitisation of Credit Institutions.
At the same time, the bank will retain 5 % of the medium and low priority bonds. The loan portfolios of the GAIA I and GAIA II securitisations will be managed by Cepal Hellas.
Cenergy Holdings: Cenergy’s cable subsidiary Hellenic Cables in a consortium with Jan De Nul Luxemburg SA, signed a framework agreement with the French TSO, Réseau de Transport d’Électricité (RTE). The awarded “Bretagne Sud” project involves the design, manufacturing and installation of high-voltage submarine as well as the design, manufacturing and supply of onshore power cable systems to support France’s renewable energy goals.
Located off the coast of southern Brittany, the project will deliver cable systems that will support connection of future offshore wind farms to the mainland grid. Hellenic Cables will supply 390km of 225kV export cables, split into 150km of offshore cables and 240km of onshore cables.
The project will establish three key cable links which will subsequently allow the connection of one 250MW floating offshore wind farm and a second one later, bringing the total power to 750 MW.
These cables will play a crucial role in delivering clean energy to France’s power network. Hellenic Cables will be responsible for the design, manufacturing, termination, testing and commissioning of the 225kV cables, while Jan De Nul will be responsible for the transportation, laying and protection of the cable links.
The submarine cables will be produced at the Hellenic Cable’s expanded facility in Corinth, Greece, with delivery expected between 2028 and 2030, while the land cables will be manufactured at Hellenic Cable’s land cable facility in Thiva, Greece.
- Trastor: New €92.5mn bond loan issued by Piraeus Bank to finance REIT’s business developments.
- Aegean Air: Autohellas bought on December 19 30K AEGEAN shares for €305.313K.
- Attica Holding: The passenger ferry operator concluded the spin off and contribution of its passenger shipping to its subsidiary Blue Star Ferries.
- Orilina Properties: The REIT sold another property in its RE development in the Hellinikon project for €4.82mn. This was the 11th residence sold of the REIT’s project Marina Residences by Kengo Kuma.
Yalco: The company announced that concluded the transfer of 940.000 shares of YALCO TRADING for a price of 1€1mn to the company “SOHANALO LIMITED”. The total share capital of the subsidiary “YALCO TRADING” amounts to 6.000.000€, whereby after the above transfer the share of YALCO SOCRATES D.KONSTANTINOU AND SONS S.A. is now 51%, while the share of SOHANALO LIMITED to 49%.
Elve: The company announced that on 20/12/2024 has signed an agreement for the sale of 507.787 shares of the company “LETO S.A.” (i.e. all of its stake in the above company). The said company was in the financial statements of ELVE S.A. under investments in affiliated companies. Based on the valuation of the above mentioned participation in the interim financial statements 30/6/2024 of the company, there is no gain or loss from this sale.
¢ Buybacks
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