Beta Sec – Daily report 25-02-2026 (Market Monitor- Market Comment- In the Spotlight- Βuybacks)

AthEx resumed on Tuesday after the long weekend with mild losses for the majority of stocks, in a market that is treading carefully amid geopolitical tensions and in anticipation of this week’s 2025 results announcements from the country’s systemic banks. It was the credit sector that led the day’s decline with considerable losses, though a number of large caps headed the other way, led by construction companies, refineries and retailers.

General index closed at 2,259.13 points, shedding 0.64% from Friday’s 2,273.73 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.80%, ending at 5,745.47 points. The banks index conceded 3.32%, as National dropped 4.16%, Alpha fell 3.61%, Piraeus eased 3.53% and Eurobank parted with 2.94%. Viohalco jumped 6.30%, OTE climbed 4.27% and Motor Oil earned 4%, while OPAP gave up 4.36%. In total 49 stocks boasted gains, 64 posted losses and 12 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €402.1 million, up from last Friday’s €238.2mn.

A bounce is excused on the back of improving international sentiment and technical oversold across major banking names. However, we note that upcoming results will be key in shaping near- to medium-term market sentiment. 

Greece/Travel Services Balance: In 2025, the balance of travel services showed a surplus of €20.25bn, up from a surplus of €18.79bn in 2024. According to the Bank of Greece, travel receipts rose by €2.03bn, or 9.4%, to €23.62 billion, while travel payments also increased by €565.5mn, or 20.2%, to €3.37bn. The rise in travel receipts was driven by a 5.6% increase in inbound traveler flows and a 3.8% rise in average expenditure per trip. Net travel receipts offset 59.9% of the goods deficit and contributed 89% to total net receipts from services. BoG attributed the rise in travel receipts to increases from EU-27 residents by 6.1% to €12bn and from residents of other countries by 14.7% to €9.89bn. Receipts from euro area residents rose by 4% to €9.85 billion and receipts from residents of non-euro area EU-27 countries increased by 14.1% to €2.84bn. 

Banking Sector: According to press, Greek banks provided about €4bn in business loans in 2025 as their co-financing share in RRF corporate loans, accounting for roughly one-fifth of all new business lending and about 40% of SME loans that year. Since the program began, total RRF loan participation has reached €7.8bn, with banks contributing €5.7bn and companies €4.1bn, while overall available investment resources amount to €36bn (split between grants and loans), with lending having accelerated in 2025, marking the highest annual RRF disbursements so far. 

Aegean Air: As of today, the trading of the 831 own bonds of the Common Corporate Bond Loan of the company – with issue date 12/03/2019 – ceases and they are cancelled from the ATHEX. The total number of listed bonds of the company on ATHEX amounts to 196,819 bonds. 

OPAP: As of today, the name of the company “GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS S.A.” on ATHEX changes to “OPAP Holding Societe Anonyme”, with new distinctive title “OPAP Holding”. 11,459,263 treasury shares cancelled as of February 27.  

Metlen: Reportedly, Shell and METLEN signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Tuesday, 24 February 2026, establishing a framework for cooperation in the supply and trading of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Under the MoU, the two companies will supply and trade LNG volumes of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 bcm per year over the 2027–2031 period, with deliveries to the Greek LNG reception and regasification terminals in Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis.  The agreement also provides for the use of the Vertical Gas Corridor, enabling access to additional European markets beyond Southeast Europe.

In other news a new RES hybrid project awarded in the UK consisting of 78 Mws solar energy park (for Cero Generation and Enso Energy) alongside with 120 Mws BESS storage battery. 

Gek Terna: Gek Terna’s collaboration with the Ukrainian Ukrhydroenergo, through its affiliate construction company Terna, regarding the joint development and implementation of large hydroelectric and pumped storage projects in Ukraine, with a total budget of approximately 1.5 billion euros, is entering a maturation phase. 

Alpha Trust Andromeda: NAV on February 20 was €10.38/share vs an ASE closing price of €8.84/share, implying a reduced vs January 2025 discount over NAV at 14.83%.  

Ellaktor/Dimand: The transaction regarding the sale from REDS, Ellaktor’s RE subsidiary, to Dimand of Kambas project was concluded for a total consideration of €45.8mn, all through bank loans.  

OTE (FY:25 results preview): OTE will release its Q4:25 & FY:25 financial results (IFRS) on Thursday, February 26, 2026, before the opening of the Athens Exchange. The company’s management will host a conference call on tomorrow, February 26, 2026 at 13:00 (GREECE) / 12:00 (CONTINENT) / 11:00 (UK) /06:00 (EASTERN US) to discuss the results. Details of the CC are provided below. Consensus expects a strong Q4 finish aided by the deconsolidation of TKRM in Romania in Q4:25 and the vanish of losses generated there from the business. In more details:

• FY:25 sales are seen down 2.9% at €3.485bn compared to €3.591bn last year as the sale of TKRM will vapor c.€250mn of sales on the consolidated level
• Adjusted (AL) EBITDA is seen up 2.7% to €1.384bn compared to €1.347bn in Q4:24 with the respective margin up by 219bps to 39.7% vs 37.5% a year earlier assisted by the improvement of TKRM deconsolidation.
• EBIT is forecasted to settle at €768mn compared to €668.4mn in FY:24, a 12.3% yoy rise.
• Net income Adjusted is expected to settle 5% higher on a yearly basis to €630.571m vs €600.8mn in FY:24.
• On top of the already €0.10/ share gross interim dividend distributed in December 2025 (all the proceeds resulting from the sale of TKRM were handed back to shareholders), market expects a remaining €0.71/share gross dividend for 2025 totaling €0.81/share (gross) total shareholders’ remuneration for 2025 (DY: 4.7%).
• Regarding 2025 provided guidance, updated following the disposal of TKRM, OTE currently expects FY:25 FCF of €530mn (vs €450mn before TKRM disposal), CAPEX at €600mn (vs initial guidance of €610-€620mn), focusing on the expansion of its Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH) infrastructure and the coverage of its 5G Stand Alone (SA) network to support Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) service and EBITDA (AL) growth in Greece at 2% fueled by solid performance in remaining businesses (mobile, broadband and TV) alongside effective cost management in operations.
• On shareholders’ remuneration out of the €451mn guided in early 2025 (with FY:24 results announcement), €298mn were directed to cash dividend (FY:24 €0.722/share), already paid in July 2025, with another €153 committed on share buybacks (and cancellation after) with approximately €25mn remaining unallocated as of Q3:25 results announcement. OTE, as mentioned above, already completed an extraordinary one-off dividend distribution of €40mn related to the proceeds from the Sale of TKRM (€0.10/share gross).
• Stock currently trading at FY:26 PE of 12.13x and FTY:25 EV/EBITDA 5.5x and DY at 4.6%.

The following table summarizes consensus estimates:

CC Details: Thursday, February 26, 2026 at 13:00 (GREECE) / 12:00 (CONTINENT) / 11:00 (UK) /06:00 (EASTERN US)

§   GR: + 30 210 9460 800

§   USA: + 1 516 447 5632

§   UK & INTL: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   Web: https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/otegroup260226.html

Piraeus (Q4/FY:25 Results preview): Piraeus Bank opens the floor for systemic banking peers group results announcements tomorrow before the opening while a conference call will follow the same day at 14:00 GR-Time. Management outlined a strong finish to the year ahead of the CMD scheduled for March 5th in London. While loan growth trends decelerated compared to previous quarters due to late-year repayments, the bank met its full-year net credit expansion target of >€3.5bn, marking a historic turn as retail net credit became positive for the first time in 15 years driven by mortgages. The majority of this credit expansion was funded by client deposits, which finished the year higher than expected, alongside good trends in AUM and mutual funds and stable asset quality. In terms of P&L, NII was flattish for the quarter, signaling the lowest point is behind, while fee income grew strongly (>10% QoQ) supported by insurance, investment banking, the large Egnatia Odos ticket, and the first-time one-month incorporation of Ethniki Insurance. OpEx is estimated at c.€900mn for the year, burdened by one-offs including c.€10-15mn for VES, Ethniki integration costs, and costs related to the commercial launch of Snappi (c.€20-25mn for the full year). Finally, impairments reflect a top-up in post-model adjustments due to the government legislation on CHF loans and the conversion of step-up products into fixed-term loans. Management reaffirmed all key guidance: 15% RoTBV, €0.80 reported EPS, and ~13% CET1 post-incorporation.

We are highlighting a strong fee momentum especially as Ethniki Insurance starts contributing; fee income will approach close to 28% of the revenue base. The acquisition is expected to contribute +100bps in ROTE and +10-15% in EPS (EPS at €0.90 for 2026; €1 for 2027 and €1.2 for 2028). Lastly, we are noting that Snappi neobank even though at an early stage is acting strategically positive and has reached the first milestone set of 50k users by year end. More on Piraeus updated business plan on Capital Markets Day event scheduled on March 5.

The following table summarize our estimates:

Conference call details:

§   Greece: +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000

§   UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   UK & Intl: +44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   USA: +1 516 447 5632

§   Web: https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/piraeusbank260226.html

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