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AthEx remained on an upward course on Monday, with the benchmark continuing its ascent for a fourth day in a row while the index rebalancing triggered a considerable increase in turnover during the closing auctions. The week therefore appears front-heavy, given the slow trade expected on Thursday and Friday due to Thanksgiving in the US. Mid-caps are beginning to gain momentum, somewhat closing the gap with blue chips. General index closed at 1,406.20 points, adding 0.33% to Friday’s 1,401.58 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded just 0.04%, ending at 3,404.45 points. The banks index grew 0.08%, as Piraeus earned 0.72% and Eurobank climbed 0.44%, while National dropped 0.61% and Alpha parted with 0.52%. Ellaktor fetched 2.94%, ElvalHalcor augmented 2.56% and Cenergy Holdings collected 2.38%. In total 72 stocks boasted gains, 50 posted losses and 39remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €206.6m, up from last Friday’s €95.7m. A moderate bounce is expected in today’s session on selective interest and positive vibes from abroad. ¢ In the Spotlight PPA, Jumbo: Reportedly, Israel and Lebanon appear to be close to a ceasefire deal, with the Israeli cabinet set to meet on Tuesday to discuss it. A 60-day truce is being proposed to end fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah. This development might be a good start to end Middle East Crisis and restore Red Sea passage for merchant shipping companies. Moreover, we see Piraeus Port, Jumbo, Aegean and Refineries benefited for this potential development. Greece/PDMA: Tomorrow, November 27, 2024 the Hellenic Republic will auction 26 Weeks T-Bills, in book entry form, with maturity May 30, 2025. The amount to be auctioned is 500 million euro. Settlement date is November 29, 2024. During the auction non – competitive bids can be submitted up to 20% of the auction amount. No additional non-competitive bids will be accepted on November 28, 2024. Eurobank: The bank announced the acquisition of an additional 24.659% stake in Cypriot subsidiary Hellenic Bank (101,794,409 shares) for a total consideration of €493mn (€4.843/share) reaching 93.47% from 55.962% currently. Eurobank will now proceed with a mandatory tender offer at €4.843 eur/share for the remaining 6.53%. Hellenic Bank share price closed yesterday at 4.64 eur/share while Eurobank acquired the bank at average cost of 0.73 eur/share. Helleniq Energy: Reportedly, late last week Helleniq Energy submitted the first bid for the 50% stake in Elpedison held by Italy’s Edison. As agreed between the two partners in the power generation and trading company, the so-called “Dutch auction” will be followed, meaning that each will submit successive bids for the 50% held by the other and the highest bid will eventually prevail. Elpedison’s two shareholders want to close the deal before the end of the year. Based on the process, a bid from Edison will follow, and so on. The one who offers the highest price for the 50% held by the other will soon be the sole shareholder of Elpedison. The Elpedison front is one of the two that Helleniq Energy management wants to close in the coming weeks/months. The second one concerns its stake in DEPA Emporia. Ekter: EGM approved merger with Energy Hub Gek Terna: 9M:24 results on November 29 before market opening. Terna Energy: 9M:24 results out on Friday November 29 before the open. Sunrisemezz: €0.0504/share capital return. Ex-capital return date November 27. Capital return record date November 28. Capital return payment December 3. Phoenix Vega: €0.0128/share capital return. Ex-capital return date November 27. Capital return record date November 28. Payment December 3. Thrace Plastics (9M:24 results): On a segmental basis the group posted 2% higher volumes sold in the Technical Fabrics sector and 16% in the Packaging sector. Despite preserving market shares by selling higher volumes in a weak business environment, market pressures led to lower average selling prices, especially in the technical fabrics segment, which are not in line with the relatively higher raw material prices and the increased energy costs. As a result, there has been a variation of performance at the level of operating profitability of the Group compared to the previous year. Revenues in Q3:24 were strong, up 8.9% y-o-y at 97.7m, Technical fabrics at €60.1m up 1.7% and Packaging at €37.8m up 19%. Q3 EBITDA at €11.5m was 11.1% lower than last year, with Technical Fabrics at €5.9m, 19.3% lower and Packaging at €5.5m 1% higher y-o-y. Net Debt at €25.6mn vs €29.6mn in FY:23. FY:24 gross interim dividend €0.07/share. FY:24 CAPEX €30mn. Guidance for FY:24 EBITDA in the tune of last year (2023), ie close to €45mn albeit higher turnover.
Fourlis (9M:24 results preview): 9M:24 results expected to come out this evening after market close. A mixed set of results impacted by good operational KPI’s for IKEA and Interpsort and burdened on the B/S by increased leverage due to TE consolidation. In more details: § Results impacted by inter IKEA group dictated lower pricing strategy, higher y-o-y volumes in furniture business, gross margin preservation in high levels as a results to IKEA’s supply chain competitive advantage and efficiencies and cost control in the business. Still mixed picture and complexity as regards to TE REIT figures included in the retail business segment. Fourlis has pointed for deconsolidation by end 2024, which we do not consider feasible now and would rather be mitigated in H1:24. New IKEA Patra launched in late October 2024 replacing local IKEA pick up point should contribute in Q4:24 meaningless and should bolster furniture segment performance from Q1:25 onwards alongside with new IKEA store in Heraklion Crete operational by end H1:25 onwards. IKEA airport optimization with 3 new tenants added (Intersport, H&B and Plaisio) should also enhance IKEA’s airport presence and figures. Next new IKEA in 2027 in the Hellinikon while smaller IKEAs should be expected in smaller cities, mainly in which the group already has presence (Rhodes, Hania, Kalamata) replacing existing pick up points. § Intersport network rationalization and expansion continues. § Footlocker acquisition and expansion should add on results from 2025 onwards in the fast growing lifestyle and fashion segment across all Balkans area. § TE deconsolidation to simplify corporate structure and alleviate BS net debt pressure. § H&B expansion on track both individually through new stores opening and through collaborations (AB shop in shop). § All in, 9M:24 sales up 3.6% to €403.71mn from €389.6mn in 9M:23 § EBITDA (OPR, IFRS 16 lease adjusted) at €50.51mn from €31.5mn a year earlier. § Net income up 176.7% to €14.39mn from €5.2mn, positively impacted by TE €4.8mn revaluation gains. § FY:24 PE 9.3x, DY 3%. Outperform remains. The following table summarizes our estimates for Fourlis Group Q3/9M:24 performance:
Hellenic Exchanges (9M:24 results review): Hellenic Exchanges (9M:24 results review): HELEX reported last night a better set of Q3/9M:24 period than we had anticipated based on better cost control and higher capital income below the EBITDA line. Better KPIs for the market assisted to the growth in figures while strict cost control compared to previous quarters added to outperformance. In more details: § 9M:24 sales came in 2.1% higher than our prediction of €39mn to €39.8mn, 15.6% higher on a yearly basis when compared to €34.4mn in 9M:23. § Operating expenses (OPEX) increased by 5.9%. OPEX was €19.7 million in the nine months of 2024 compared to €18.6 million in the nine months of 2023. § EBITDA landed 28.9% higher to €18.4mn compared to €14.3mn in 9M:23, and beating our call of €17.2mn by 7.2%. § Finally, net income accelerated 37.5% to €13.2mn vs €9.6mn in 9M:23, hefty outperforming our call for €11.86mn (+11.7% positive delta). § On a Q3 basis, sales were at €13mn (€11.5mn in Q3:23,+13.3%), EBITDA was up by 17.9% to €5.6mn vs €4.8mn and net income came in at €3.9mn compared to €3.1mn in Q3:23, +26.2%. § €1.26 billion in total capital was raised in the nine months of 2024, out of which €785 million was raised through the listing of the Athens International Airport, marking an increase of 12.5% from the €1.12 billion raised in the corresponding period of 2023. § The Average Daily Trading Value was €130.1 million, an increase of 21.7% compared to the nine months of 2023 (€106.9 million). § The Average Capitalization of the market increased by 23.6% in the nine months of 2024 compared to the average Capitalization in the nine months of 2023 (€98.5 billion compared to €79.7 billion). Total market capitalization increased by €13.7 billion compared to the end of 2023, reaching €101.7 billion, while the average daily trading activity of the market saw a significant uptick, reaching €130.1 million during the nine months of 2024. § The trade volume in the Derivatives Market decreased by 17.7% to 38.5 thousand contracts daily in the nine months of 2024, compared to 46.8 thousand contracts in the nine months of 2023. § The participation of foreign investors in the capitalization of the market increased, reaching 67.0% in the nine months of 2024 compared to 63.4% in the nine months of 2023. § Net cash at €64.64mn from €62.841mn in FY:23. § The outlook and prospects of the domestic market remain promising in our view with the market likely to be placed under developed market status no sooner than end 2025 in our view. § The company trades at a projected FY:24 PE 13.2x and EV/EBITDA 7.1x. DY at 7.6%. Maintain Outperform with TP €8.6/share. § The following table summarizes results vs. our estimates for HELEX Q3/9M:24 financial performance:
Video conference Details: Tuesday November 26, 4pm local GR (Athens) time, WEB: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_oe0vgMRdRd2hAYSyRJuRfw Kri Kri (9M:24 results preview): The company will deliver its Q3/9M:24 financial performance today after market close. We expect a continuation of trends spotted during H1:24 results, with strong (double digit) top line (sales) growth and milder EBITDA and Net income acceleration courtesy of lower margins, mainly in the yogurt segment, as a result of consumers’ inflation driven direction to PL yogurts and prices reduction on the Kri Kri branded segment to defend MS’s. IC on the other hand is expected to be strong as a result of higher MS’s on impulse (on the street) consumption due to extended tourism period and MS gains in the future consumption channels (S/M). We expect the company to reiterate FY:24 guidance for sales to exceed 16% (vs 15% guided in the beginning of 2024) implying an absolute EBIT figure of at least €39.2mn. Thus we forecast: § 9M:24 sales up 15.6% to €204.25mn vs €176.67mn in 9M:23; Consolidated EBITDA up 5.6% to €43.88mn vs €41.54mn; Net income up 21.6% to €36.72mn from €30.19mn a year earlier. Net income to be boosted by a one off significant lower tax rate courtesy of €5.3mn tax deductible investment grants already booked in during H1:24 results. § Q3:24 sales up 15.2% to €204.25mn (€176.67mn in Q3:23), EBITDA at €14.44mn, +12.6% from €12.82mn in Q3:23 and Net income +15.6% to €10.4mn from €9mn in Q3:23. The company remains a top pick (Outperform rating) trading at a projected FY:24 PE multiple of 12.4x, EV/EBITDA at 9.8x, CF yield at 9.2% and DY 2.8%. The following table summarizes our estimates for Kri Kri’s Q3/9M:24 performance:
Kind regards, Manos Chatzidakis Head of research 29 Alexandras Avenue 11473 Athens,Greece Tel: +30 210 6478988/754 Email: [email protected] Disclaimer: Beta Securities S.A. |
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