Beta Sec – Daily report 27-02-2026 (Market Monitor- Market Comment- In the Spotlight- Βuybacks)

AthEx extended its rebound on Thursday, with most shares advancing and the benchmark index reclaiming the 2,300-point level, despite trading volumes remaining below recent averages. An early pullback that briefly erased initial gains was quickly followed by another upswing. Investor focus remains firmly on 2025 corporate results, which are expected in most cases to provide additional support to share prices in the days ahead.

General index closed at 2,304.14 points, adding 0.89% to Wednesday’s 2,283.73 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index also expanded 0.89%, ending at 5,866.67 points. The banks index advanced 1.49%, as National climbed 2.94%, Optima earned 2.55%, Eurobank rose 1.06%, Piraeus grabbed 0.92% and Alpha obtained 0.83%, while Bank of Cyprus parted with 0.21%. Allwyn gaming company jumped 4.15% and GEK Terna collected 2.30%. In total 70 stocks reported gains, 42 sustained losses and 14 remained unchanged.  Turnover amounted to €298.4 million, down from Wednesday’s €306.9mn.

MSCI rebalancing will take place today and expectedly related flows will dominate domestic market despite selective interest driven by results. General Index is just 0.47% below January close while February Average Daily Turnover (€348m) is down 16% vs. January 2026 but up 102% vs. February 2025.  

Trek Development: FY:25 results on March 10. AGM on March 31. Ex-dividend date April 22. Dividend record date April 23. Dividend payment April 28.

 Ideal Holdings (FY:25 results and CC highlights): A strong set of FY:25 performance, characterized by both organic growth in existing businesses (Byte in IT and ADS in retail) and new acquisition (Barba Stathis). On top of the €0.15/share already distributed (capital return) an additional €0.20/share is expected, according to our estimate. In more details:

§   Turnover +35% to €513.4mn vs €380.3mn in FY:24; Comparable EBITDA up 47.6% to €58mn vs a reading of €39.3mn a year earlier on both organic growth and M&A (Barba Stathis).; Reported EBITDA +26% to €62.8mn

§   Comparable EBT +54% to €36.7mn compared to €23.9mn in FY:24; Comparable net income +59.1% to €26.1mn against €16.4mn in 2024.

§   On a segmental basis, retail business (Attica Department Stores – Ads) registered +5% sales increase to €244.2mn, EBITDA +11% to €30.4mn with 0.5% EBITDA margin improvement (from 11.8% to 12.4%) and EBT was up 19% to €23.6mn while net cash position stood at €40.7mn including debit and credit card receivables of €10.8mn

§   In the IT segment (Byte Group of companies) EBITDA was up 13% to €15.2mn, with significant EBITDA margin step up to 14.3% compared to 11.5% in 2024, EBT accelerated 16% to €12.6mn while revenues dropped 9% to €106mn. Net cash of the segment shaped at €24.3mn while current backlog stands at €83mn

§   In the food court, Barba Stathis advanced 7% to €129.1mn, Comparable EBITDA +5% to €14.5mn and comparable EBT +25% to €8.6mn. Net debt landed at €34.3mn.

§   OHA controls 25% of the 3 entities through a €102.5mn investment.

§   Dividend policy going forward (next 3 years) at 40-50% of net income.

The following table summarizes Ideal’s FY:25 financial performance on a comparable basis:

OPAP: As of today, the trading of the 11,459,263 own (CR) shares of the company ceases and they are cancelled from the ATHEX. On February 27, 2026, the total number of the company’s listed shares amounts to 358.603.478 (CR) shares. 

MIG (financial calendar): FY:25 results will be released on March 12 after market close. AGM on April 30. No dividend will be handed out for 2025. H1:26 results on July 31.  

CNL Capital: New €800K bond loan with 12 months duration fully covered through private placement in order to finance company’s business.

HelleniQ Energy (Q4/FY:25 review): Helleniq Energy announced a satisfactory set of Q4:25 results that came broadly in line with estimates. Adjusted EBITDA came in at €1.13bn and Adjusted Net Income reached €0.5bn, supported by the successful execution of its strategic transformation, a favorable international refining environment and solid operational performance. The Company announced a FY:25 dividend of €0.60 per share (remaining 0.40 eur/share). On a reported level inventory losses of €101m, €29m one off losses and €52m CO2 deficit accruals weighed on reported net income that landed at just €44m. In details:

• Refining production and sales volumes remained high at 15.0m MT and 15.6m MT, respectively, despite the turnaround at the Elefsina refinery. Stronger refining margins and improved international trading performance—supported by the launch of HELLENiQ Petroleum Trading operations in Geneva—led to improved realized margins. Domestic and International Marketing made a significant contribution, delivering historically high profitability, with international activities accounting for approximately 40% of total profitability.
• The RES business continues to expand, targeting 1.5 GW of installed capacity over the next three years, with geographic and technological diversification across wind, solar PV and storage. The integration of Enerwave and the acquisition of the ABO Energy Hellas portfolio and team further strengthen development capabilities and execution capacity. On a pro-forma basis, the integrated power and gas platform generates ~€100m of EBITDA, providing diversification away from refining.
• Operating cash flow reached €0.67bn, reflecting strong profitability. Capital expenditure, including the Enerwave acquisition, totalled €757m, a record level for the Group. Net debt stood at €2.1bn (€1.8bn excluding non-recourse project finance), while financing costs declined year-on-year due to lower base rates and spreads.
• Looking ahead management re-affirmed that RES installed capacity will reach 1.47GW by 2028 as 311MW are under construction and 655MW are on RTB phase. Refining margins have bounced at end of February. Note that Aspropyrgos maintenance will conclude at end of March practically the refinery will contribute just on month in Q1:26 while Thessaloniki has a scheduled maintenance in Q3:26.
• Management looked confident to deliver another strong year of EBITDA surpassing the €1bn mark supported by more predictable cash-flow businesses. CapEx needs will return to ordinary €200m p.a. leaving enough room for FCF generation. Helleniq Energy trades 5.1x FY:26 EV/EBITDA and 8.0x FY:26 earnings. 

The following table summarize results vs. Q4/FY:24 consensus estimates: 

OTE (FY:25 results review + CC highlights): OTE reported an in line set of FY:25 performance, on an adjusted basis for Lease IFRS 16 effect, and delivered promising outlook on the CF front allowing for increased dividend distributions to shareholders. In more details:

• In FY:25, sales advanced by 3.9% to €3,464.3mn compared to 3,344mn in FY;24, adjusted to exclude sold TKRM.
• Adjusted EBITDA settled 2% higher, spot-on guided growth rate, to €1,373.5mn compared to €1,346.2mn in 2024 with EBITDA (AL) margin deteriorating by 0.8% to 39.6% vs 40.4%, burdened by c. €36.7mn VRS costs
• EBIT came in higher to €821mn (€784.8mn in 2024)
• Net profit was €627.9mn vs €614mn in 2024.
• DPS up 22% yoy to €0.877 on top of the €0.10/share extraordinary one-off dividend distributed in December 2025 on the €40mn proceeds due to the sale of TKRM.
• FCF (AL) was 3.9% higher to €542.8mn compared to €522.5mn in 2024, assisted by TKRM deconsolidation. CAPEX for the year was €611.6mn, in line with guided €610mn
• Net debt further reduced to €553.3mn (€643.4mn a year earlier) with gross cash at €520.9mn (€467mn in 2024, +11.5%) having repaid €60mn bonds in 2025 with Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA (AL0 ratio at 0.4x. €500mn bond expiring (maturing) in September 2026 (coupon at 0.875%) following another €60mn fixed rate notes fully subscriber by DT that were paid in October 2025. 
• Guidance for 2026 calls for EBITDA growth of around 3%, similar to top line (sales) growth. Shareholder remuneration will stick to FCF performance with total 2026 shareholders’ remuneration at €532mn, c.100% FCF payout with proposed dividend at €0.877/share, up 22% yoy and above market consensus (€0.71/share) payable on July 7, 2026 (following AGM approval) with total distributed amount reaching €355mn while another €177mn will be directed to share buyback and cancellation, up 16% yoy.
• On the CF front, projected FY:26 FCF dictated at €750mn providing that no spectrum auction will occur. The figure is benefitted by one-off tax allowances from TKRM sale thus lowering the figure beyond 2026 to a recurrent €570-€580mn, still higher than FY:25 updated guidance (last October following the disposal of TKRM0 from €460mn to €530mn. CAPEX for the year at €600mn, mainly directed toward the expansion of its Fiber-to-the-Home network and the deployment of its 5G Stand-Alone (SA).
• Guidance on shareholders’ remuneration, providing stable operating environment entails a combination of DPO and Share Buy Back, with acquired shares to cancel, to the extent of 70 to 100% of previous year FCF generation. Cash dividend will account for at least 50% of the amount with the raminder allocated to share buyback (and cancellation).
• During the CC nothing new revealed apart from elaborating on FY:26 targets.
• FY:26 PE 12.3x, EV/EBITDA 5.45x, DY 4.53%. We would favor OTE as a defensive dividend play against market’s turbulence and volatility.

The following table summarizes results vs. consensus estimates:

NBG (Q4:25/FY:25 Preview): NBG exit FY25 from a position of strength, with stable core income, solid loan growth, and disciplined costs supporting management’s confidence in meeting full‑year targets. NII is expected to be flat q-o-q (10% y-o-y), consistent with guidance and our estimates (€527mn in 4Q25; €2.13bn FY), with management highlighting supportive trends from deposit repricing and visibility on NII recovery next year. Credit expansion was strong in Q4, allowing NBG to exceed its €2.5bn loan growth target, while retail lending remained positive throughout the year and mortgages showed early signs of improvement. Fee income continued to perform well, driven by investment related activity with a mid-single digit y-o-y growth (€121mn in 4Q25; €457mn FY). Trading income stayed positive in Q4. Operating expenses increased above 9M levels due to seasonality (c.€257mn in 4Q25; €942mn FY), whilst keeping the cost to income ratio at 35% for the full year. CoR was stable q-o-q, with management reiterating confidence in achieving the <45bps target. No material one offs were flagged. Management also emphasized ongoing MREL refinancing, noting several new issuances over the past three months and more to come.

Our forecasts imply a stable PBT (€362m in Q4; €1.6bn FY) and net profit of €278mn in Q4 (€1.16bn FY, +0.4% y-o-y) reflecting a full year ROTE of above 15%. The bank will present its 2026–2028 Business Plan alongside FY25 results. Loan growth is solid and NII stable, fees are growing but not as aggressive compared to the peers. The Bank’s substantial excess capital provides capacity for enhanced shareholder distributions or strategic acquisitions.

Overall, NBG heads into FY26 with resilient profitability, ample capital, and clear strategic flexibility ahead of its new business plan.

 The following table summarize our Q4/FY:25 estimates:

The conference call is scheduled for today at 10:30 GR-Time.

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Piraeus (Q4/FY:25 Results review and CC highlights): Piraeus Bank delivered a solid FY25 performance, with results underscoring both earnings resilience and continued balance‑sheet strengthening. FY25 NII came in at €477mn (+1% q-o-q) for Q4’25 and €1.90bn as per guidance (‑9% y-o-y), fee income at a very strong 206.5mn (+26% q-o-q) and €695.7mn (+12% y‑o‑y) surpassing comfortable the target of €650mn. As expected, operating costs for the quarter where elevated reaching €256mn bringing the total for the year at €902.6mn as expected (3% y‑o‑y; translating to a 33% cost‑to‑income ratio). One‑off costs included €32mn of VES and Ethniki integration costs and a €63mn CHF FX impact.  Bottom line, net profit of €1.07bn broadly stable y‑o‑y and at €250mn for the quarter delivering a ROaTBV of 16%; TBV/share reached €5.92; €0.82 EPS exceeding guidance; the payout ratio increased to 55%. Total 2025 distributions reached €592mn (7% yield), combining a €0.40/share dividend and a 100mn share buyback.

The bank reported €91bn in assets, +€3.2bn in client deposits y-o-y (€66bn in total; 28% deposit market share). Loan growth at +11% for 2025 and €37bn in client loans with solid pipeline ahead as Q1’26 was hinted to be showing a strong positive trend. In terms of capital, TCR 18.7%, CET1 12.7% and LCR 215%. Asset quality was strong, with 52bps organic CoR, AuM rose 27% y‑o‑y (+€3.1bn).

We are highlighting:

• the strong performance of the service revenues which are now contributing 26% of total revenues for the bank (Ethniki Asfalistiki contributing €10mn for circa one month in 2025); NFCI/Av. Total Assets at 82bps versus 65bps for peers
• the above target net credit expansion of €3.9bn; with Q4 disbursements balanced across SMEs (€1.7bn) and large corporate (€1.7bn) while retail turning positive of €340mn (€250mn mortgages)
• NPE ratio at 2% and NPE coverage of 73%
• Valuation metrics of 2028E P/TBV of 1.2x versus 1.5x for European peers, and a €10.4 PB share price versus €8.1 for European peers
• Credit ratings: Baa2, stable (Moody’s); BB+, positive (S&P); BBB-, stable (Fitch)

Looking ahead, management is mainly planning on cash distributions for 2026 and in terms of the Katselis-law exposures (€50mn, all Stage 1 performing) they are being monitored pending final legislation, with guidance to follow once the framework is finalized.

Overall, FY25 results underscore a bank that consistently delivers on its commitments, executing targets with discipline. We expect the March 5th CMD to be a key catalyst, as the bank will unveil its business plan outlining strategic priorities and financial targets for the next 3–5 years.

 The following table summarize reported results:

Eurobank (Q4/FY:25 Results review and CC highlights): Eurobank delivered a broadly stronger‑than‑guided FY25 performance, with RoTBV at 16.0% versus 15% guidance, EPS €0.37, and TBV/share €2.64 (€0.15 DPS). Capital remained solid with CET1 at 15.6%, CAD 20%, NPEs at 2.6% with a high 95.2% coverage ratio. Business volumes outperformed across the board: organic loan growth reached €5.3bn, up 12% vs 7.5% guidance, while deposits increased €4.1bn, up 5% vs 3% guidance. The bank announced a €717mn total distribution (increasing the payout to 55% 2025 net profit from 50%), including a 12.7% increase in the cash dividend to €11.8 cents/share, which incorporates the €170mn interim dividend (€4.7 cents/share) paid in November 2025, alongside a €288mn share buyback.

FY25 results show a solid top‑line expansion but also clear cost pressure and a mild decline in bottom‑line profitability. NII increased 2% y-o-y to €2.55bn (€646.8mn +2% q-o-q in 4Q25), while fee income rose a strong 16% y-o-y to €770m, with an 11% q-o-q uplift in 4Q25 at €213.2mn. This drove total income up 4% y-o-y to €3.37bn, with sequential growth of 3% q-o-q at €865.9mn. On the cost side, operating expenses increased 19% y-o-y to €1.26bn, a 4% q-o-q rise in 4Q25. Provisions declined 4% y-o-y to €308m, with a notable 14% q-o-q reduction in 4Q25. Despite strong revenue growth, the cost base expansion led to a 6% y-o-y decline in attributable net profit to €1.36bn, with 4% q-o-q lower earnings in 4Q25 of €328.6mn.

Eurobank’s 2026–2028 business plan. The plan outlines a materially more ambitious growth and profitability trajectory, anchored in stronger balance‑sheet expansion, higher fee intensity, and sustained capital generation. The bank targets c.7.5% CAGR in organic loans and a similar c.7.5% CAGR in investment securities, translating into €3.8bn credit expansion in 2026 and over €12bn cumulatively through 2028, with retail growing at 3% CAGR and corporate at 7.5%. Profitability is set to rise meaningfully, with RoTBV expected to reach 17% by 2028, a full 200bps above the previously communicated plan, supported by NII rising from €2.6bn in 2026 to €3bn in 2028 and fees reaching €1.04bn by 2028. Fee growth is underpinned by insurance and wealth management, where Eurolife contributes c.€100m, CNP c.€30m, and insurance & wealth fees grow at c.30% CAGR, lifting their share of total fees to 35% by 2028 from 20% today; wealth management fees alone are expected to double by 2028. Integration of Eurolife is planned for the second half of 2026, while the Cyprus acquisition is expected to deliver €140m synergies, of which €85m are to be captured within the plan horizon.

Cost discipline remains central, with OpEx expected to grow c.5% CAGR and a targeted C/I ratio of 35%, supported by €730m in IT capex to drive efficiency. Asset quality is expected to remain stable, with NPE ratio at c.2.5%, coverage at c.80%, and CoR around 50bps through 2026–2028. Operating profitability is projected to rise from €1.9bn in 2026 to €2.3bn in 2028, enabling EPS growth of c.10% per annum. The plan embeds 100bps excess capital as a buffer for potential M&A and maintains a consistent distribution policy of 55% payout for 2025 and 2026, with at least 55% by 2028.

Eurobank exits FY25 with clear operational momentum, strong capital resilience, and consistent delivery above guidance, while the 2026–2028 plan signals a step‑change in strategic ambition. The combination of accelerating balance‑sheet growth, a structurally richer fee mix, disciplined cost management, and stable asset quality underpins a credible path to higher profitability and sustained shareholder returns, reinforced by a robust capital buffer and a reaffirmed commitment to a minimum 55% payout.

 The below table summarizes results:

Alpha Bank (Q4/FY:25 Results review): Alpha Bank delivered an exceptionally strong FY25 performance, beating expectations across every major line and posting record profitability, underscoring the success of its strategic execution and the earnings uplift from recent acquisitions. Q4 reported profit reached €237mn, up 28% q‑o‑q, bringing FY25 profit to €943mn, a 44% y‑o‑y increase, well above the €900mn target and 16% ahead of consensus. NII rose 3% q‑o‑q to €413mn, reaching €1.61bn for the year, fully in line with guidance and supported by Astrobank and higher volumes. Fees surged 12% q‑o‑q to €136mn, up 19% y‑o‑y to €501mn, comfortably beating the €460mn target, driven primarily by strong real estate income. Costs increased 7% q‑o‑q to €226mn due to Astrobank and seasonal effects, yet FY25 OpEx of €850mn came in below the €870mn target, demonstrating effective cost control. Asset quality remained stable with an NPE ratio of 3.6% and 58% coverage, while €62mn provisions implied a 58bps CoR in Q4, keeping the full‑year CoR at 48bps, only slightly above the 45bps guidance. The performing book expanded by €1.8bn q‑o‑q, including €0.6bn from Astrobank and €1.3bn net credit expansion, while customer funds rose 4% q‑o‑q, two‑thirds from Astrobank, with total customer funds reaching €77.5bn and AuM net sales of €0.3bn. Capital remained solid with 15.0% fully‑loaded CET1, 20.2% total capital ratio, and MREL at 30%, absorbing the 20bps impact from the higher payout. Shareholder returns strengthened with the payout ratio increased to 55%, equivalent to €519mn, including the €111mn interim dividend paid in December. Profitability metrics were robust, with ROTE at 13.1% in Q4 and 13.8% for FY25, while TBVPS rose to €3.28, up 9% y‑o‑y. Group performing loans reached €37.5bn, up 5% q‑o‑q, and deposits increased by €2.2bn to €55.1bn, almost entirely from Astrobank. Management also guided 2026 EPS at €0.40, up 11% y‑o‑y and aligned with consensus.

Alpha Bank closes FY25 with a clear outperformance across all targets, strengthened commercial momentum, and record earnings, entering FY26 from a position of scale, capital strength, and accelerating profitability. 

The below table summarizes reported results:

CC Details: Friday, February 27, 2026 at 12:00 GR-Time

• Greece: +30 211 180 2000 or +30 210 94 60 800
• UK & Intl: +44 (0) 203 059 5872
• UK/TF: +44 (0) 800 368 1063
• USA: +1 516 447 5632
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