Market Comment
Despite recent fluctuations, ATHEX appears to be stabilizing, supported by strong corporate earnings and favorable global market trends. Investors remain watchful of upcoming economic and political developments, which could impact the market trajectory. Moreover, the conclusion of Terna Energy deal may enhance liquidity and increase activity in domestic market while London roadshow next week may also provide incentives for decisive action.
AthEx succumbed to its first losses after five consecutive days of growth during which it had grown by over 3%. Banks were at the center of the profit-taking process.
General index closed at 1,403.63 points, shedding 0.31% from Tuesday’s 1,408.05 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.47%, ending at 3,393.41 points. The banks index declined 1.98%, as Piraeus slumped 2.75%, National dropped 2.63%, Alpha parted with 1.65% and Eurobank conceded 1.07%. Cenergy Holdings advanced 1.90%, Coca-Cola HBC earned 1.84% and Ellaktor grabbed 1.73%. In total 51 stocks boasted gains, 59 posted losses and 51 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €86.8m, up from Tuesday’s €63.8m.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/PDMA: During the auction of €500mn of 26W T-Bills conducted yesterday, the total bids reached €944mn and the amount finally accepted was €600mn. No additional non-competitive bids will be accepted on November 28, 2024. Settlement date is November 29, 2024. Coverage ratio at 1.89x vs 2.12x in the previous similar (3 months) auction on October 23,2024. Coupon at 2.46% from 2.71% previously.
Aegean Air: Autohellas, holder of a 12% stake, bought on November 26 15K shares for €145.974K.
Terna Energy: The transaction regarding the Share Purchase and Covenants Agreement between Gek Terna and Masdar will be completed today. Masdar will acquire 67% for 20 eur/share or €1.58bn
Space Hellas: New €7mn 6-year loan facility from Attica Bank to refinance expiring €6mn loan with the same bank.
Fourlis (9M:24 results review correction on table for Q3/9M figures): The company reported a set of Q3/9M:24 financial performance that came in below our estimates on the EBITDA and Net income line with a disappointing weak Q3:24 despite back to the school enhancement. In more details:
§ Consolidated sales accelerated 4.6% to €407.6mn from €389.6mn in 9M:23 and vs our call for €403.7mn.
§ Retail business revenue was up 2.6% to €390mn driven by increased volume sales across all segments bit in lower prices in the IKEA brand, applying new inter Ikea pricing policy already evident since the beginning of the year.
§ IKEA sales (RHF) up 2.1% to €257.3mn, EBITDA (OPR0 +40.4% to €26.9mn (margin at 10.5% from 7.6%) and EBIT up 55.1% to €21.2mn from €13.7mn. The segment will be enhanced in 2025 with the inclusion of the recently acquired Footlocker business.
§ Sportswear sales (Intersport) up 2.9% to €130.7mn, EBITDA (OPR) -14.3% to €6.6mn vs €7.7mn (weak on higher operating expenses) and EBIT down 51.9% to €1.1mn from €2.3mn.
§ H&B sales at €1.6mn (from €0.5mn in 9M:23), EBITDA (OPR) at -€1.5mn (-€1.2mn in 9M:23) and EBIT -€1.7mn compared to -€1.3mn a year earlier as the business is still in development and expansion phase (increased expenses).
§ Trade Estates income was up 65.6% to €30.3mn with FFO at €10.7mn vs €6.5mn in 9M:23. Gross NAV at €497.9mn with NAV at €303.1mn.
§ Consolidated EBITDA (OPR) up 40.9% to €44.4mn from €31.5mn with EBITDA margin improvement to 10.9% from 8.1% gaining 2.9%.
§ Retail business EBITDA (OPR) reached €27.9mn from €22.6mn in 9M:23 with margin at 7.1% from 5.9%. Still the figure is 12% below our call for €50.5mn.
§ The reason in the miss of the EBITDA (OPR) figure comes from the weak performance of the sportswear segment.
§ Net income settled at €12mn vs €5.2mn a year earlier, just 1.8% below our call.
§ A weak EBITDA performance, mainly due to sportswear business segment will not please the market.
§ Awaiting, as reiterated again the deconsolidation of TE that will alleviate financial leverage on he company’s B/S.
§ FY:24 PE 9.3x, DY 3%. Outperform remains purely on valuation ground.
The following table summarizes Fourlis group Q3/9M:24 financial performance vs our estimates.
|
Fourlis |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2024 Est. |
Act. vs |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
2024 Est. |
Act. vs |
|
EUR m. |
9Μ |
9Μ |
(%) |
9Μ |
Est. |
Q3 |
Q3 |
(%) |
Q3 |
Est. |
|
Sales |
389.6 |
407.6 |
4.6% |
403.7 |
1.0% |
142.9 |
150.6 |
5.4% |
146.7 |
2.7% |
|
EBITDA (OPR) |
31.5 |
44.4 |
41.0% |
50.5 |
-12.1% |
14.4 |
16.7 |
16.0% |
12.6 |
32.1% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
8.1% |
10.9% |
+281 bps |
12.5% |
-0 bps |
10.1% |
11.1% |
+101 bps |
8.6% |
28.7% |
|
Net Income |
5.2 |
12.0 |
130.8% |
12.2 |
-1.8% |
3.9 |
4.8 |
21.7% |
2.9 |
65.2% |
|
Net Mrg |
1.3% |
2.9% |
+161 bps |
3.0% |
-0 bps |
2.7% |
3.2% |
+42 bps |
2.0% |
61.0% |
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