Market Comment
AthEx closed practically unchanged yesterday with Terna Energy block trades dominating volumes and interest. The day was very quiet, owing to the US holiday, and the benchmark was virtually a non-mover.
General index closed at 1,403.83 points, adding just 0.01% to Wednesday’s 1,403.63 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.21%, ending at 3,386.39 points, but mid-caps expanded 0.30%.
The banks index conceded 0.49%, as Eurobank parted with 1.28%, Alpha fell 0.70% and Piraeus slipped 0.23%, while National edged up 0.06%. Lamda Development was down 1.81%, as Motor Oil grew 2.51%. In total 64 stocks enjoyed gains, 36 sustained losses and 18 remained unchanged. Excluding the Terna Energy transaction, turnover amounted to €60.5 million, down from Wednesday’s €86.8m.
The market’s overall mood reflected a cautious optimism, with investors weighing geopolitical uncertainties and corporate fundamentals. November ends today, so far AthEx is up 1.53% m-o-m with 201.9m average daily turnover mainly thanks to Terna Energy blocks.
¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/Economy: The boards of directors of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) have approved Greece’s intention to repay its loans early. According to the ESM and EFSF loan agreements with Greece, with early repayment to other creditors, a proportional amount of the financial assistance provided becomes immediately due and payable.
Thanks to the exemptions granted, Greece can repay early loans under the GLF facility (bilateral loans from Eurozone countries), without being obliged to make an early repayment to the two institutions. ESM and the EFSF hold around 54% of Greece’s public debt. The exemptions were granted in response to an official request from the Greek government, which proposed early repayment of loans amounting to 7.935 billion euros, initially scheduled to be repaid in the period 2026-2028.
The Greek Loan Facility (GLF) was part of the first financial support program for Greece, agreed in May 2010. It consisted of bilateral loans from 14 eurozone countries, amounting to 52.9 billion euros, of which 39.5 billion euros remain outstanding. It should also be recalled that Greece completed the repayment of its loans from the IMF two years ahead of schedule in 2022 and made the first early repayment of GLF loans in 2023.
Greece/Private Sector Deposits: October data from BoG revealed that private sector deposits were down by €2.258 billion in October 2024, a stark contrast to the €2.324 billion increase recorded in the previous month. According to the Bank of Greece data, business deposits fell sharply by €2.122 billion in October 2024, while household deposits also declined, albeit more modestly, by €136 million. The net monthly flow of total deposits was negative, amounting to €1.869 billion in October 2024, compared to a positive net flow of €2.361 billion in September 2024. Government deposits in Greece saw an increase of €389 million in October 2024, compared to a €37 million rise in the previous month.
The annual rate of change improved slightly to -12.1% from -14.2% in September. In contrast, private sector deposits decreased by €2.258 billion in October 2024, following a €2.324 billion increase in September. Despite the decline, the annual growth rate of private sector deposits remained steady at 3.3%.
In October 2024, the monthly net flow of credit to individuals and private non-profit institutions was negative by €78 million, compared with a negative net flow of €21 million in the previous month; the annual growth rate stood at -0.7%, compared with -0.8% in the previous month. In October 2024, the monthly net flow of total deposits was negative by €1.869 billion, compared with a positive net flow of €2.361 billion in September 2024.
GEKTERNA (Results 9M:24 preview): The group is expected to release 9M/Q3:24 results today before the opening. We expect nine month revenues of continuous operations to reach €2.2bn vs. €2.37bn a year ago and flattish EBITDA of €275m. On an adjusted basis we expect net profits to reach €88m vs. €76m a year ago.
- Construction is expected to post improved bottom line and EBITDA margin despite delays that affected turnover (-8% y-o-y) while concessions are expected to have a strong contribution with turnover and EBITDA up by 20% and 10% respectively. Finally, thermal unit Turnover and EBITDA is seen lower by 8% and 20%. Focus on construction projects (VOAK, IRC etc), net debt and closing of Egnatia deal.
Terna Energy (9M:24 results): 70% stake sold to Masdar yesterday through a transaction through the ASE at €20/share. Installed capacity at 1,224MW compared to 1,124MW as of September 2023. Net Debt at €822mn vs €844.6mn in FY:23. Load factor at 29.4% from 28% in 2023. In Grreece load factor stood at 29.8% from 28.7%
|
Terna Energy |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
9Μ |
9Μ |
(%) |
|
Sales |
174,900 |
249,400 |
42.6% |
|
EBITDA |
118,300 |
153,600 |
29.8% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
67.6% |
61.6% |
-605 bps |
|
Net Income |
36,000 |
52,300 |
45.3% |
|
Net Mrg |
20.6% |
21.0% |
+39 bps |
Bank of Cyprus: As of today, the trading of the 785,712 own (CR) shares of the company ceases and they are cancelled from the ATHEX. On November 29, 2024, the total number of the company’s listed shares amounts to 440,964,310 (CR) shares.
Aegean Air: On November 27, Autohellas bought 15K shares in the company for €145.784K
Technical Olympic: EGM on December 19 write down accumulated losses of €130mn against reserves and approve new share buyback program.
Lamda: Reportedly, Lamda Development is expected to proceed with share capital increases in its subsidiaries with shopping centers as well as with agreements for bank financing in order to begin the construction of The Ellinikon Mall and Riviera Galleria, in The Ellinikon. The two shopping centers together are among the largest and by extension among the most expensive developments planned at the former airport, with Lamda advancing without third party cooperation as it was the case with the mixed-use tower, or the hotels on the beachfront.
It is estimated that bank borrowing will exceed 800 million euros, as according to the data published by the company, the construction cost (Building Capex) for The Ellinikon Mall and Riviera Galleria is estimated at 656 million euros, the cost of land and infrastructure is estimated at 263 million and the remaining costs (financing, marketing, etc.) at 133 million euros.
The total cost based on the above is estimated at 1.052 billion euros. According to Lamda, the amount of 1.052 billion euros will be secured as follows: 271 million from equity, 575 million from bank loans and 206 million from other sources of financing. It should be noted that the aforementioned figures appear in the company’s presentations for over a year and this means that the final numbers are likely to be different (higher).
Lamda had also included the listing of Lamda Malls on the Stock Exchange, a move delayed for 2025 rather than Q4:24 as initially scheduled. The bank financing for the two shopping centers in Ellinikon has been agreed with Eurobank, Piraeus, Alpha and Attica Bank and is expected to be announced by the end of the year, after the necessary procedures have been completed. Lamda Development proceeded with share capital increases in the subsidiaries with the malls totaling 237.3 million euros.
This was preceded by smaller capital injections in the same subsidiaries in Q3:24 as a condition for participating with equity in the construction of the two shopping centers. Interest expressed for the lease of the available space in the shopping malls is progressing. By the end of October 2024, Heads of Terms (HoT) had been agreed with tenants for 63% of the Total Gross Lettable Area (GLA) at The Ellinikon Mall and 69% of the GLA at Riviera Galleria, at higher prices compared to the shopping malls in operation, as reported by the company. It is noted that The Ellinikon Mall will be more than five times larger than Riviera Galleria (and twice as large as The Mall Athens). The former will have an available space for lease of 100 thousand sq m and the latter 19 thousand sq m.
Europe Holdings (Kloukinas): 70,362,390 new shares due to its merger with Intrakom Properties and the simultaneous cancellation of 24,177,910 shares that Intrakom Proprties processed in Europe Holdings take place on December 2 and will commence trading.
Intralot (9M:24 results): Results to be published today before market opening. CC Details: November 29, 5pm GR time
§ GR: + 30 211 180 2000 or 30 213 009 6000
§ UK: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872 or + 44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ USA: + 1 516 447 5632
§ WEB: https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/intralot3Q24.html
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