Market Comment A late surge in stock prices, mainly in the closing auctions, offset earlier losses and led to yet another historic high on Thursday, as the benchmark reached levels unseen since April 2011. This was also the third consecutive session where the main index headed higher while mid-caps posted losses. With one more session left before the end of January, this month appears to have been another one of stock growth for AthEx in line with European peers. General index closed at 1,550.72 points, adding 0.30% to Wednesday’s 1,546.03 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.26%, ending at 3,797.94 points, while mid-caps contracted 0.09%. The banks index improved 0.19%, as Optima jumped 3.24% and Eurobank collected 0.33%, whereas Alpha and Piraeus stayed put and National slipped 0.05%. Cenergy Holdings rose 2.24% and OPAP fell 1.61%. In total 66 stocks made gains, 43 sustained losses and 52 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 107.4 million euros, down from Wednesday’s €122.5m. A strong month ends with 5.5% gains and considerable increase (+38% vs. Jan 2024) in turnover too. February will be a reality check for investors’ expectations as it marks the kick-off of the publication of the fourth quarter results. In this context we expect rotation interest to continue and domestic market to test new highs. ¢ In the Spotlight Greece/Unemployment: At 9.4% in December 2024. Greece/PPI: PPI retreated 2.2% in Jan – Dec 2024 period. Greece/Construction Activity: Construction activity ended October with a significant increase. According to the data ELSTAT announced on Tuesday, total construction activity amounted to 2,640 building permits, corresponding to 748,786 square meters in area and 3,683,376 cubic meters in volume – i.e. an increase of 5.9% in permit numbers, 30.7% in area and by 45.7% in volume, compared to the same month of 2023. In the 10-month period from January to October 2024, total construction activity showed an increase of 15.8% in the number of building permits, 20.2% in area and 15.5% in volume, compared to the corresponding period of 2023. Greece/Economy: The Greek economy is forecast to achieve a 2.1% growth in 2025 (previously set at 2%), according to a report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report estimates Greece’s real GDP growth rate will remain high before easing in the medium term. The report by the IMF suggests Greece’s economic expansion will be fueled primarily by investments, supported by projects financed through the EU Recovery Fund. Positive employment figures and income growth will support private consumption which is forecast to remain stable. As global energy prices settle, overall inflation is expected to continue its downward trend, although core inflation will be more persistent due to rising service costs and wage increases. With financing through Recovery Fund financing expiring, along with demographic challenges and sluggish productivity growth, GDP expansion is expected to slow to around 1.25% in the medium term. The current account deficit is projected to gradually decline below the 4% threshold as imports tone down. On the issue of public debt, the IMF points out that public finances are reinforced by ongoing efforts for structural reforms and fiscal consolidation leading to growth potential and energy security. By the end of 2024, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to have declined by more than 50 percentage points from its peak in 2020, supported by strong economic growth, high inflation, and significant fiscal consolidation. Greece’s primary surplus is expected to remain high at roughly 2.5% of GDP in 2025, as decreased revenues from the further slash of social security contributions will be largely offset by reform-related revenues targeting tax evasion and tax compliance. Greece/Households Deposits: In December 2024, deposits placed by households and private nonprofit institutions increased by nearly 2.5 billion euros to reach €150.3 billion at the end of the year, the Bank of Greece announced. According to figures released by the central bank, the annual growth rate decreased to 2.4%, from 2.8% in the previous month. Ellaktor: EGM approved €0.85/share capital return. Ex capital return date March 24. Payment on March 31. Greece/Unemployment: Data released by Greece’s Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) indicate that the unemployment rate in Greece fell below the critical 10% threshold in Dec. 2024. It stood at 9.4%, compared to 10.4% of the same month in 2023. More specifically, the number of employed individuals reached 4,267,593, marking an increase of 35,656 people (0.8%) compared to Dec. 2023 and a decrease of 10,579 people (-0.2%) compared to Nov. 2024. The number of unemployed individuals reached 443,639, marking a decrease of 48,529 people (-9.9%) compared to Dec. of 2023 and a decrease of 6,124 people (-1.4%) compared to Nov. 2024. As recorded individuals under 75 years old who are not part of the labor force, or “persons outside the labor force”—those who neither work nor seek employment—were 3,053,783. This represents a decrease of 10,816 people (-0.4%) compared to Dec. 2023 and an increase of 14,551 people (0.5%) compared to Nov. 2024. Figures also indicate that women remain more vulnerable to unemployment, with the unemployment rate for women standing at 11.3% in 2024, compared to 8% for men. A positive development is the downward trend in unemployment among the 15-24 age group, despite fluctuations over the past five years. It has dropped from 33.2% in Dec. 2019 to 21% in the same month of 2024. At a European level, according to unemployment data released by Eurostat Greece remains the country with the second-highest unemployment in the EU, behind only Spain, with an unemployment rate of 9.4%. Spain holds the top position with 10.6%, while Finland ranked third with 8.6%. In Dec. 2024, 2.927 million young people under 25 were unemployed in the EU, of whom 2.359 million were in the eurozone. The youth unemployment rate slightly declined to 15.0% in the EU, while it stood at 14.8% in the eurozone. Greece’s position improved at the EU level, dropping to 4th place from the 3rd position it held in Nov. with a youth unemployment rate of 21%. Spain ranked first with 25.3%, followed by Sweden at 23.9% and Luxembourg at 22.3%. Bank of Cyprus: According to press that the bank is targeting a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 14% to 16% this year. Performance that will come thanks to offsetting losses from lower interest rates, through increased commissions mainly from insurance business, hedges and secondarily from credit expansion (growth of 3%). The payout ratio (dividend + buyback) from 2024 earnings will be announced together with Q4 results on February 18. BoC is targeting for payout ratio of 50%. Trastor: FY:24 results to be announced on March 7. AGM on March 28. Ex-dividend date April 2. Dividend record date April 3. Dividend payment April 7. H1:25 results September 26. Premia: The REIT acquired an office complex in Thessaloniki for €7.585mn, fully leased till 2034 for an annual rental income of €558K. Space Hellas: Its subsidiary Singular Logic completed the SAP S/4HANA IS Retail project for S/M chain Anedil Kritikos. Austriacard Holdings: Major shareholder Mr. Lykos acquired 100K shares in the company at €6/share on January 28.
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