Market Comment
Epsilon Net deal boosted the information technology sector and supported momentum in the entire stock market at on Friday, leading to a new 13-year high at the end of a week of significant growth across the board. The advance was aligned with foreign markets offsetting Thursday’s profit taking.
General index closed at 1,454.98 points, adding 1.38% to Thursday’s 1,435.19 points. On a weekly basis it improved 4.48%. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 1.26%, ending at 3,543.88 points and the banks index grew 1.53%, as National grabbed 1.85%, Eurobank climbed 1.51%, Piraeus augmented 1.50% and Alpha fetched 1.04%. Quest Holdings soared 8.70%, Ellaktor jumped 3.15%, Titan Cement went up 2.49%, Lamda Development collected 2.20%, while Aegean Airlines parted with 0.98%. In total 97 stocks reported gains, 30 suffered losses and 34 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €149m, up from Thursday’s €142.1m.
Orthodox Easter holidays and long weekend ahead may decelerate momentum however Q1:24 announcements may trigger some selective interest. We expect a moderate bounce in today’s session and gradual ease of volumes during the week.
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¢ In the Spotlight
Greece/PDMA: Auction of 3M treasury bills on May 1.
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Greece/Credit Expansion: According to data from the Bank of Greece (BoG), business deposits increased by 1.278 billion euros in March 2024, compared to a decrease of 911 million in the previous month, while household deposits witnessed a rise of 396 million euros in March 2024.
- In March 2024, the monthly net flow of credit to the general government was negative by 469 million euros, compared with a positive net flow of 762 million euros in the previous month; the annual growth rate decreased to 0.7% compared with 1.9% in the previous month.
The annual credit growth rate to the private sector increased to 4.5% from 3.8% in the previous month. The monthly net flow of credit was positive by 1,983 billion, compared with a positive net flow of 904 million euros in the previous month.
- The monthly net flow of credit to corporations was positive by 1,913 billion euros, compared with a positive net flow of 924 billion in the previous month; the annual growth rate increased to 8.0% from 7.1% in the previous month. The monthly net flow of credit to individuals and private non-profit institutions was positive by 21 million euros, compared with a negative net flow of 20 million euros in the previous month; the annual growth rate stood at -1.4% compared with -1.7% in the previous month.
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Greece/Banking Sector Deposits: The monthly net flow of total deposits was positive by 957 million, compared with a negative net flow of 1,803 billion in February 2024. In March 2024, deposits placed by the general government decreased by 718 million euros, compared with a decrease of 737 million eurosin the previous month; the annual growth rate stood at -24.5% compared with -10.2% in the previous month.
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AIA: AGM cleared remaining FY:23 gross dividend €0.33/share. Q1:24 results out today after market hours. Note that during the Q1:24 period, the airport’s passenger traffic totaled 5.2mn, up 16.5% y-o-y on the back of strong domestic and international passengers that surpassed the 2023 levels by 10.3% and 19.4%, respectively. Athens International Airport’s number of flights during the Q1:24 period amounted to 46,334, up 12.8%, y-o-y. Both domestic and international flights were above the 2023 volumes by 6.5% and 17.5%, respectively.
- Following a 16.5% increase in passenger traffic in the first quarter of the year, AIA’s management has revised its forecast for the overall course of 2024 in relation to the figures it had estimated in the context of the listing. It now estimates passenger traffic for this year to come to as much as 30 million people.
Company’s management indicated that EBITDA will continue to be at levels above 60% of revenues. AIA is currently in the middle of an expansion of the airport, which includes an increase in commercial space of more than 60% and the construction of a multi-story car park.Financing for the first phase of the 650-million-euro development is estimated to come from banks, “on competitive terms,” with contacts already taking place.
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OPAP: The company goes today ex FY:23 gross dividend €0.6105/share (net €0.5799/share). Dividend payment May 9.
Profile: Presentation to analysts to tomorrow 09:30am; AGM on May 20.
Quest Holdings: AGM on June 13.
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Thrace Plastics: (FY:23 CC highlights): Managing director Dimitris Malamos reiterated the estimate for an upward trend in EBITDA in Q1:24 (+5% to +10% vs. Q1:23) while at the same time he expressed his moderate optimism for FY:24, given the broader geopolitical uncertainty.
- Capex during the period 2019-2023 amounted to €150m, while for this year estimated CapEx will reach €30m targeting also to added value new product range. Management pointed that is seeing to achieve a return on invested capital (ROIC) of at least 10%. At the end of 2023 the group was operating solar parks with a total capacity of 10.8 MW, while this year another one (in Ireland) with a capacity of 0.5 MW will be launched.
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Piraeus Bank (Q1:24 Results preview): Piraeus Bank is set to announce its Q1:24 results tomorrow before the opening of the market followed by a conference call at noon. We expect lower top line figures on the back of net interest income erosion from higher deposit costs, MREL and marginal credit expansion in the first quarter.
- NFI is expected at the same levels of Q4:23 (-0.7%) despite the calendar effect of fewer working days. Recurring OpEx is seen flat at €205m bringing PPI at €441m. Note that our estimate does not include any related costs/fees with the HFSF stake placement that concluded on March 7. Further down LLPs are forecasted at €98m assuming 80bps impairment charges in line with annual guidance. All in we expect Piraeus to post €240 of net profits on solid organic generation income.
Note that on February Piraeus guided for FY:24 €1.9bn NII, €0.6bn NFI, 14% RoTBV implying net profits of €0.9bn. Piraeus is trading at €0.69x its FY:24 TBV with NPEs at end 2023 at 3.5% with 62% provision coverage. In the conference call we expect updates on credit expansion, deposits cost, NPEs evolution and scheduling of dividend distribution from 2023 profits.
The following table summarizes our estimates:
|
Bank of Piraeus |
Act. |
Act. |
Est. |
Overview |
|
|
(In Million Euro) |
1Q23 |
4Q23 |
1Q24 |
QoQ |
YoY |
|
NII |
446.9 |
537.0 |
530.0 |
-1.3% |
18.6% |
|
Fee income |
121.6 |
144.0 |
143.0 |
-0.7% |
17.6% |
|
Trading |
10 |
32 |
-12 |
-137.5% |
|
|
Other Income |
-1 |
10 |
-15 |
-250.0% |
-913.5% |
|
Total income |
577 |
723 |
646 |
-10.7% |
12.0% |
|
Operating costs |
-206 |
-260 |
-205 |
21.2% |
0.5% |
|
Pre-provision-profits |
371 |
463 |
441 |
-4.8% |
18.9% |
|
Core PPI |
362 |
421 |
468 |
11.2% |
29.1% |
|
Provisions |
-95 |
-105 |
-98 |
6.7% |
-2.7% |
|
Other results |
-21 |
-47 |
0 |
|
|
|
PBT |
254 |
311 |
343 |
10.3% |
34.8% |
|
Corporate taxes |
76 |
100 |
103 |
2.9% |
35.4% |
|
Net profit (continued) |
178 |
211 |
240 |
13.8% |
34.6% |
CC Details: 30/04, 15:00 GR-Time
§ GR: + 30 213 009 6000 or +30 213 009 6000
§ UK: + 44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ Int: + 44 (0) 203 0595872
§ US: + 1 516 447 5632
§ WEB https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/piraeusho240430.html
****
Coca Cola HBC (Q1:24 trading update preview): Coca Cola HBC AG to announce its Q1:24 trading update tomorrow at 09:00am GR time; the Company will hold a CC with investors and financial analysts the same date at 11:00am GR time. Consensus estimates are as follow:
§ Q1:24 volumes should come in at 621.8mn unit cases, marginally up 0.1%, y-o-y; NSR for the period should reach €2.216bn, up 0.6%, y-o-y, with the NSR/Unit shaping at €3.56 up 0.5%
§ Established segment’s volumes should reach 133.8mn unit cases, down 2.3%, y-o-y; NSR for the segment should reach €725.7mn, up 4.0%, y-o-y, with the NSR/Unit shaping at €5.42 up 6.1%
§ Developing segment’s volumes should come in at 100.8mn unit cases, marginally increased 0.5%, y-o-y; NSR for the segment should reach €463.3mn, up 11%, y-o-y, with the NSR/Unit shaping at €4.95 up 17.1%.
§ Emerging segment’s volumes should come in at 358.6mn unit cases, down 4.65%, y-o-y; NSR for the segment should reach €1.03bn, down 6.5%, y-o-y, with the NSR/Unit shaping at €2.6, down 9.4%.
§ Note that CCHBC in the announcement of FY:23 results guided for 3 to 9% organic EBIT growth for FY:24 indicating adj. EBIT between €1.07bn and 1.16bn on the back of 6-7% top line growth and low to mid-single digit inflation COGS. Management commented that CCHBC is already hedged for c. 50% of input costs for 2024; we remind that concentrate accounts for c. 35% of input costs and is rising along with volume growth.
The following table summarizes consensus estimates:
|
COCA COLA HBC |
2023 |
2024 |
Y-o-Y |
|
Period |
Q1 |
Q1 |
(%) |
|
Volume Units (m) |
621.1 |
621.8 |
0.1% |
|
Established |
136.9 |
133.8 |
-2.3% |
|
Developing |
100.3 |
93.4 |
-7.3% |
|
Emerging |
383.9 |
394.5 |
2.7% |
|
Net Sales (m. eur) |
2,202.5 |
2,216.1 |
0.6% |
|
Established |
696.6 |
725.7 |
4.0% |
|
Developing |
412.2 |
463.3 |
11.0% |
|
Emerging |
1,093.7 |
1,027.1 |
-6.5% |
|
Net Sales/Unit |
3.55 |
3.56 |
0.5% |
|
Established |
5.09 |
5.42 |
6.1% |
|
Developing |
4.11 |
4.96 |
17.1% |
|
Emerging |
2.85 |
2.60 |
-9.4% |
CC details 30/04, 11:00am GR-Time:
§ GR: +30 2111982353
§ UK Toll free: 0 800 0156290
§ USA Toll free: 1 855 2656957
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NBG (Q1:24 results preview): NBG will announce Q1:24 results on Wednesday, May 1, before market opening. A conference call will follow at 10:30 GR time. As it the case for all systemic peers NBG is forecasted to post a softer top line on the back of lower NII (MREL issuance, deposits migration, spread compression, no new loans) and lower fee income (seasonality calendar effect).
- On the cost side NBG is expected to increase recurring OpEx at €213m vs. €201m a year ago. All-in pre provision income is forecasted at €537m up 1.6% Q-o-Q and 24% y-o-y. Further down we pencil in flattish LLPs (€50m) reflecting guidance on no more that 65bps of impairments. Net profits after minorities and discontinued operations are expected at €316m up 0.7% q-o-q.
In the conference call we expect some color for Q2:24, trends in credit expansion, NPEs and how the bank is going to treat non-performing loans with state guarantee. NBG trades 0.91x its TBV with 3.7% NPEs and 87% provision coverage.
|
NBG |
Act. |
Act. |
Est. |
Overview |
|
|
(In Million Euro) |
1Q23 |
4Q23 |
1Q24 |
QoQ |
YoY |
|
NII |
497 |
623 |
602 |
-3.4% |
21.1% |
|
Fee income |
87 |
109 |
98 |
-10.2% |
13.3% |
|
Trading Income |
69 |
6 |
45 |
675.9% |
-35.1% |
|
Insurance/Other Income |
-19 |
24 |
5 |
-79.4% |
126.0% |
|
Total income |
633.9 |
762.4 |
750.0 |
-1.6% |
18.3% |
|
Operating costs |
-201 |
-234 |
-213 |
8.9% |
-6.0% |
|
Pre-provision-profits |
433.0 |
528.7 |
537.0 |
1.6% |
24.0% |
|
Core PPI |
382.9 |
498.6 |
487.0 |
-2.3% |
27.2% |
|
Provisions |
-56 |
-47 |
-50 |
-5.5% |
11.3% |
|
Other results |
0 |
-19 |
-10 |
46.5% |
#ΔΙΑΙΡ./0! |
|
PBT |
376.6 |
462.6 |
477.0 |
3.1% |
26.7% |
|
Corporate taxes |
98 |
88 |
143 |
62.6% |
45.4% |
|
Net profit (continued) |
278 |
375 |
334 |
-10.9% |
20.0% |
|
Discontinued operations |
-18 |
-60 |
-16 |
73.3% |
12.6% |
|
Net profit |
260 |
315 |
318 |
1.0% |
22.3% |
|
Minorities |
0 |
1 |
2 |
100.0% |
#ΔΙΑΙΡ./0! |
|
Attributable net profit |
260 |
314 |
316 |
0.7% |
21.5% |
CC Details: 01/05, 10:30 GR-Time
§ GR: + 30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 9460 800
§ UK: + 44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ Int: + 44 (0) 203 0595872
§ US: + 1 516 447 5632
§ WEB https://hdg.choruscall.com/?h=true&passcode=80271326&info=company&r=true
****
GEKTERNA (FY:23 Results preview): GEK is set to announce its FY:23 results today after market followed by a conference call tomorrow. We expect lower top line figures on the back of thermal energy generation normalization DAM price (and retail pricing) yet organic profitability will be supported by new capacity addition in RES, increased concessions traffic and Construction activity as seen in 9M:23 figures.
- We expect dividend of 0.22 eur/share vs. 0.20 eur/share in FY:22. Focus in the conference call on the timing of concluding transactions in Egnatia, Attica Ring Road, VOAK kick start and Kastelli/IRC progress, funding and outlook for the year. Note that FY:23 CC for Terna Energy will take place on Tuesday April 30, at 16:15 GR-Time.
In other news GEKTERNA bondholders approved on Friday a) the waiver of clause 9.2.1 of the CBL Program 2021 whish is as follows:
- “throughout the period spanning from the Calculation Period commencing after the Bond Issue Date until the end of the Calculation Period ending on 31.12.2023, the Total Debt to Equity Ratio shall not exceed 3” and
b) the change in the terms related to the Financial Liabilities which prohibits amounts to exceed (i) €1,100,000,000 throughout the period from the Calculation Period starting after the Bond Issue Date until the Calculation Period ending on 31.12.2023, and (ii) €1,900,000,000 for the remaining period until the Bond Maturity Date”.
The following table summarizes our estimates:
|
GEK Terna |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY Est. |
(%) |
|
Sales |
3,938,278 |
3,500,000 |
-11.1% |
|
EBITDA |
544,482 |
567,700 |
4.3% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
13.8% |
16.2% |
+239 bps |
|
Net Income |
136,523 |
141,500 |
3.6% |
|
Net Mrg |
3.5% |
4.0% |
+58 bps |
CC Details: 30/04, 17:15 GR-Time
§ GR: + 30 213 009 6000
§ UK: + 44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ Int: + 44 (0) 203 0595872
§ US: + 1 516 447 5632
****
AVAX (FY:23 results): Backlog €3.3bn. FY:23 gross dividend €0.03/share (DPO 44.4%). Net Debt €182.5mn. FY:22 adjusted net income includes €9.4mn gain from participation sale. Construction EBITDA margin at 6.2% vs 4.7% in 2022.
|
Avax |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
402,709 |
453,500 |
12.6% |
|
EBITDA Adjusted |
58,200 |
60,800 |
4.5% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
14.5% |
13.4% |
-105 bps |
|
Net Income Adjusted |
12,900 |
10,000 |
-22.5% |
|
Net Mrg |
3.2% |
2.2% |
-100 bps |
****
Other FY:23 results:
- Elton (FY:23 results): Net debt down 21.3% y-o-y to €17.663mn from €22.436mn. Profitability was hit by lower margin and Inflation adjustment impairment of the subsidiary in Turkey.
|
Elton |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
194,570 |
176,298 |
-9.4% |
|
EBITDA |
19,170 |
8,000 |
-58.3% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
9.9% |
4.5% |
-531 bps |
|
Net Income |
13,500 |
1,029 |
-92.4% |
|
Net Mrg |
6.9% |
0.6% |
-635 bps |
****
Intertek (FY:23 results): Net Debt €2.357mn, down 32% y-o-y from €3.468mn.
|
Intertek |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
18,928 |
21,599 |
14.1% |
|
EBITDA |
1,063 |
1,274 |
19.8% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
5.6% |
5.9% |
+28 bps |
|
Net Income |
488 |
486 |
-0.4% |
|
Net Mrg |
2.6% |
2.3% |
-33 bps |
****
Logismos (FY:23 results): Net debt €287K, down 52.3% from €602K in FY:22.
|
Logismos |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
2,804 |
3,073 |
9.6% |
|
EBITDA |
967 |
840 |
-13.1% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
34.5% |
27.3% |
-714 bps |
|
HELLENIQ ENERGY |
22 |
26 |
16.0% |
|
Net Mrg |
0.8% |
0.8% |
+5 bps |
****
Akritas (FY:23 results)
|
Akritas |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
|
Sales |
43,422 |
40,600 |
-6.5% |
|
EBITDA |
4,384 |
4,300 |
-1.9% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
10.1% |
10.6% |
+49 bps |
|
Net Income |
751 |
15,700 |
1990.5% |
|
Net Mrg |
1.7% |
38.7% |
+3,694 bps |
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