Dow Jones Futures: Πτώση καθώς η Intel απογοήτευσε, ενώ η Tesla πυροδοτεί Bearish Σήματα

Τα συμβόλαια μελλοντικής εκπλήρωσης του Dow Jones υποχώρησαν ελαφρά κατά τη διάρκεια της νύχτας, μαζί με τα συμβόλαια μελλοντικής εκπλήρωσης του S&P 500 και του Nasdaq. Οι γίγαντες του Dow Intel (INTC) και Visa ήταν μεταξύ των αξιοσημείωτων ανακοινώσεων κερδών κατά τη διάρκεια της νύχτας. Το χρηματιστηριακό ράλι ταλαντεύτηκε και πάλι ενδοσυνεδριακά, αλλά οι βασικοί δείκτες σημείωσαν άνοδο.

Η έκθεση για το ΑΕΠ του τέταρτου τριμήνου έδειξε εκπληκτικά ισχυρή οικονομική ανάπτυξη, αλλά με τον πληθωρισμό να παραμένει ήμερος. Αλλά η Tesla (TSLA) έπεσε, προκαλώντας αρκετά αρνητικά τεχνικά σήματα, αλλά και ωθώντας την Ark Invest της Cathie Wood να προσθέσει μετοχές TSLA. Η Humana (HUM) εξέδωσε μια σημαντική προειδοποίηση σχετικά με το ιατρικό κόστος, πλήττοντας ευρέως τους ασφαλιστές υγείας.

Στην άνοδο, οι Expedia (EXPE), Adobe (ADBE), Caterpillar (CAT) και New Oriental Education (EDU) έδωσαν σήματα αγοράς την Πέμπτη. Παρόλα αυτά, οι επενδυτές θα πρέπει να είναι προσεκτικοί όσον αφορά νέες αγορές σε πολύ σύντομο χρονικό διάστημα

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  • Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% vs. fair value. Intel and Visa are Dow components, along with American Express. S&P 500 futures declined 0.25%. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.6%.

The 10-year Treasury yield lost a few basis points to 4.1%.

Crude oil futures fell slightly.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

  • Earnings

Intel, KLA Corp. (KLAC), Visa (V) and Capital One (COF), Fair Isaac (FICO) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) reported Thursday night.

Intel and KLA both beat views, but fell sharply on guidance. INTC stock is set to test its 50-day line.

Capital One edged lower as earnings missed amid higher loss provisions and higher charge-offs. T-Mobile slipped as an EPS miss overshadowed subscriber growth. Visa stock retreated after topping views, but missed on payment volume and guided for higher expenses. FICO stock fell solidly on an earnings and revenue miss.

American Express (AXP) is on tap Friday morning. AXP stock is extended from a buy point, but in range from a 10-week line pullback.

  • Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally advanced on the GDP report and other data signaling a soft economic landing, shrugging off the Tesla and Humana sell-offs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% in Thursday’s stock market trading, even with Boeing (BA) and UnitedHealth (UNH) significant drags. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.5%, with Tesla and Humana the worst performers by far.

The Nasdaq advanced 0.2% after briefly turning negative.

Market breadth was clearly strong though. The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.7%.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) jumped 1%, doubling the S&P 500’s performance. The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) gained 0.4% vs. the Nasdaq 100’s 0.1% uptick.

Still, recent Nasdaq gains have come on lighter volume. The Nasdaq has been getting slightly extended with earnings season in full force. That raises the risk of a pullback.

On the plus side, even just a few days of sideways action or a mild pullback would let key moving averages catch up.

U.S. crude oil prices jumped 3% to 77.36 a barrel, the highest since late November.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.13%, just below the 50-day line.

  • ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 0.3%, with ADBE stock a big IGV holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed flat. Intel and LRCX stock are significant SMH components.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 1% while ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) climbed 0.9%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) declined 0.8%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) ascended 3.1%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rebounded 2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gained 2.25%.The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) dipped 0.15%, with Humana and other health insurers weighing on this ETF.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) climbed nearly 1%. CAT stock is a big XLI stock. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) added 0.5%.

  • Stocks In Buy Zones

Expedia stock rose 2.5% to 152.30, rebounding from the 21-day and 10-week lines and at least testing a short trendline. EXPE stock is actionable now and is on track to have a flat base with a 155.84 buy point after Friday’s close. Other travel stocks also are acting well generally.

Adobe stock popped 2.65% to 622.58, moving in heavy volume toward a 633.89 flat base buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. On Thursday, ADBE stock extended a 50-day line bounce, clearing Monday’s high of 620.96 and offering an early entry.

Caterpillar stock gained 3.5% to 300.77, back above a 293.88 consolidation buy point initially cleared in late December. CAT stock jumped on strong results from United Rentals (URI), which gapped up nearly 13% on Thursday. Caterpillar earnings are due Feb. 5.

New Oriental Education stock jumped 6.5% to 81.05, adding to Wednesday’s 5.8% gain on strong earnings and guidance. On Thursday, EDU stock closed above a trendline entry and a 78.19 short-term high, offering early entries. The Chinese for-profit education firm has an 83.73 consolidation buy point.

Tesla Stock

Tesla had already sold off in 2024, below all its moving averages heading in Q4 results Wednesday night. But the weak results and a “train wreck” earnings call triggered several more red flags for the Tesla stock chart.

Shares plunged 12.1% to 182.63, breaking below late October lows to hit their worst levels since May. Volume was the highest since last June. Finally, the relative strength line, which tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500, dived to a one-year low.

Ark Invest’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) bought 148,246 Tesla shares on Thursday, while Ark Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) added 29,624 shares. The 177,870 Tesla shares that Cathie Wood bought were worth $32.48 million as of Thursday’s close.

Cathie Wood’s Ark often buys stocks when they’ve fallen sharply.

With no big potential positive catalysts until at least 2026, and Elon Musk even undercutting moonshot hopes such as in-house Dojo chips, the Tesla growth story is over for the foreseeable future — a year after Tesla earnings growth ended.

While TSLA stock is breaking lower, one reading remains high. Its price/earnings ratio is still a lofty 66.


What To Do Now

The stock market rally could be due for a breather as investors hold their breath heading into peak earnings season next week.

After Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML (ASML) raised expectations for earnings, Tesla, Humana and perhaps Intel showed the downside. Even ServiceNow (NOW), which had strong results and guidance, reversed slightly lower after running up over several months.

It’s probably not a great time to add significant exposure. You could choose to make incremental buys, but know your exit strategies.

Consider taking partial profits on winners, depending on your time horizon. Be quick to cut losers. Doing this would reduce overall exposure slightly, a preemptive measure amid some technical headwinds and earnings uncertainty.

Still, a lot of stocks are setting up and they could offer buying opportunities in the coming days, including some names that may have fallen back since Monday morning.

That would be especially true if the market rally holds up over the big earnings crush. So keep your watchlists up to date.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on  Threads at @edcarson1971, X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson  and Bluesky at @edcarson.bsky.social for stock market updates and more.

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