Eurobank (Results Q1:25 review) – National Bank of Greece (Results Q1:25 review) – Alpha Bank (Results Q1:25 review)

§   Net interest income rose by 11.7% y-o-y to €638m. Net interest margin receded by 34 basis points y-o-y to 2.53%. Net fee and commission income grew by 24.8% y-o-y to €169m, mainly due to fees from Network activities and Wealth Management Business, accounting for 67bps of total assets.

§   Operating expenses rose by 6.0% y-o-y in Greece and 33.0% y-o-y at Group level or 5.6% excluding Hellenic Bank to €304m. The cost to core income and cost to total income ratios reached 37.7% and 36.8% respectively in Q1:25.

§   Pre-provision income was lower by 0.6% y-o-y to €523m.

§   Loan loss provisions increased by 7.5% y-o-y to €76m and corresponded to 59 basis points of the average net loans.

§   EPS and the return on tangible book value reached €0.09 and 16.2% respectively in Q1:25.

§   SEE operations were profitable, as the adjusted net profit increased by 27.2% y-o-y to €184m in Q1:25, contributing 52.7% to the profitability of the Group. Specifically, the adjusted net profit rose in Cyprus (Eurobank Cyprus + HB) by 31.3% y-o-y to €121m and in Bulgaria by 14.0% y-o-y to €55m.

§   The NPE ratio was 2.9% and Provisions over NPE reached 89.1% in Q1:25.

§   Total CAD and CET1 ratios reached 18.9% and 15.5% respectively. Tangible book value per share stood at €2.39, from €2.14 in Q1:24.

§   In the conference call management re-iterated target for NII of €2.5bn for FY:25 despite the interest rate cuts. As for the targets for the following years (2026-2027), the bank will be in a position to update guidance post Q2 results. Eurobank expects RoTE at 15% for FY:25

§   Eurobank said that expects acceleration of ECB rates cuts (perhaps even moving below 2% to 1.5%), to the cost of deposits, given the trend at European level of a shift from savings to time deposits, and the increase in credit expansion. For every 25bps Eurobank said that the net effect on revenues is estimated at €35m.

§   In Q1:25 net credit expansion reached €1.2 billion of which €800m in Greece and now Eurobank expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters and exceed the annual target of €3.5bn.

§   Hellenic Bank synergies have been estimated at €120m in the three-year period 2025-2027 already posting synergies of €48m. No other negative one offs are expected – yet negative goodwill (positive) from the acquisition of insurance company CNP will be recorded in Q3:25.

§   The group is recording an improvement in mortgage lending mainly from the subsidiary in Bulgaria while in the Greek market the picture is weaker and lending is moving into marginally positive territory.

§   The bank’s management did not rule out the possibility of issuing a bond to replace an older bond (Tier 2 and senior preferred) of €950m in the course of 2025, priced at 6.5%. MREL currently 100bps above regulatory threshold.

Overall results are on the right path to deliver guidance. Note that Eurobank has guided for FY:25 net profits of €1.48bn (0.40 EPS) with 50% payout. Eurobank trades at 0.96x its TBV.

The following table summarise results vs. our Q1:25 estimates:

Eurobank	Act	Act	Act	Overview		Est.
(In Million Euro)	1Q24	4Q24	1Q25	QoQ	YoY	1Q25	vs Est.
NII	571.1	677.3	637.9	-5.8%	11.7%	640.0	-0.3%
Fee income	135.6	215.3	169.2	-21.4%	24.8%	170.0	-0.4%
Trading	61.4	8.2	36.0	339.9%	-41.3%	24.0	50.0%
Other Income	-14	-11	-16	-52.5%	-17.2%	-9
Total income	754.4	890.3	827.1	-7.1%	9.6%	825.0	0.2%
Operating costs	-228.8	-317.2	-304.4	4.0%	33.0%	-322.0	5.5%
Pre-provision-profits	525.6	573.1	522.7	-8.8%	-0.6%	503.0	3.9%
Core PPI	477.9	575.4	502.7	-12.6%	5.2%	488.0	3.0%
Provisions	-70.9	-90.5	-76.3	15.7%	-7.5%	-88.0	13.3%
Other results	40	-27	3	110.1%	-93.3%	-10
PBT	495.1	455.9	449.1	-1.5%	-9.3%	405.0	10.9%
Corporate taxes	112	96	101	5.1%	-10.2%	117	-14.0%
Net profit	383.1	360.2	348.5	-3.2%	-9.0%	288.0	21.0%
Discontinued operations	-96	-27	-34			-3
Net profit	287.2	333.5	314.1	-5.8%	9.4%	285.0	10.2%
Minorities	0	21	0			2
Attributable net profit	287.2	313.0	314.1	0.4%	9.4%	283.0	11.0%

National Bank of Greece (Results Q1:25 review): NBG posted Q1:25 net profit of €301m, in line with estimates. Net profit before one-offs (i.e. restructuring costs and LEPETE insurance provisions) of €381mn, exceeding expectations due to strong trading income of €90m. Overall, Q1:25 results are considered supportive to management’s guidance for the full year as RoTE came at 16.5% vs guidance for 13% in the full year. In more details:

§   NII came in -9% lower y-o-y, in line with FY:25 guidance, reflecting sharply lower interest rates (-c100bps cumulatively in Q4:24 and Q1:25), partially offset by healthy credit extension, deposit hedges and further optimization in our deposit mix

§   Fees are up +13% y-o-y on a l-f-l2 basis in Q1:25, underpinned by strong performance in both retail (+15% y-o-y) and corporate businesses (+35% y-o-y).

§   Recurring OpEx up +5% y-o-y in Q1:25 on the back of higher personnel expenses due to increased wages and variable remuneration, as well as investment in human capital including onboarding new talent and skills through hires. The benefit of the Q4:24 VES will fully materialize in 2H25 onwards, due to delayed exits CoR at 46bps in Q1:25 (49bps in Q4:24) reflecting favorable asset quality trends

§   RoTE at 19.1% or 16.5% normalizing for strong Q1:25 trading gains (before adjusting for excess capital).

§   Management appeared optimistic about the retail lending trend thanks in part to “My House II” for which there are many applications which will take some time to turn into loans.

§   Performing loan growth of +12% y-o-y in Q1:25 compares favorably with 3-year CAGR guidance of c8%, driven by net credit expansion of +€0.3b4

§   Loan disbursements at €1.6bn in Q1:25, up +41% y-o-y, driven by corporates

§   Fixed income securities exposure of €20.4bn in Q1:25 (+€2.9bn y-o-y) provides a natural hedge to our NII against normalizing interest rates

§   NPE ratio at 2.6%, with the absence of NPE flows allowing CoR normalization below 50bps in 2025 as guided

§   Regarding overseas lending through syndications, management said that energy construction and hospitality in Europe are among the areas under consideration. Attention is also focused on the Middle East, particularly Riyadh.

§   CET1 at 18.7%, c40bps higher ytd, comfortably absorbs increased payout accruals to 60% from 50% in FY:24; total capital ratio at 21.5%

§   MREL ratio at 28.4% fulfils the final MREL target of 26.8%,

Note that NBG has guided for FY:25 net profits of €1.19bn (1.30 EPS) with 60% payout. NBG shares trading at 1.01x TBV.

The following table summarise results vs. our Q1:25 estimates:

NBG	Act	Act	Act.	Overview		Est.
(In Million Euro)	1Q24	4Q24	1Q25	QoQ	YoY	1Q25	vs Est.
NII	606	575	548	-4.6%	-9.4%	547.0	0.3%
Fee income	100	115	106	-7.9%	5.9%	104.0	1.4%
Trading Income	55	22	89	312.6%	62.8%	45	97.1%
Insurance/Other Income	5	1	6	1040.0%	7.5%	15
Total income	764.9	711.3	748.3	5.2%	-2.2%	711	5.2%
Operating costs	-211	-246	-227	7.8%	7.4%	-229	1.1%
Pre-provision-profits	554.1	465.6	521.8	12.1%	-5.8%	482	8.3%
Core PPI	494.3	443.6	427.4	-3.6%	-13.5%	422	1.3%
Provisions	-46	-43	-41	3.7%	10.4%	-42	1.9%
Other results	-9	-21	-1	94.2%	86.7%	-6
PBT	499.1	402.2	479.4	19.2%	-3.9%	434	10.5%
Corporate taxes	119	42	97	130.8%	-18.3%	106	-8.1%
Net profit (continued)	380	360	382	6.1%	0.5%	328	16.5%
Discontinued operations/One offs	-21	-186	-81			-20
Net profit	359	174	301	72.9%	-16.0%	308	-2.1%
Minorities	1	-1	0			0
Attributable net profit	358	175	301	72.0%	-15.8%	308	-2.1%

Alpha Bank (Results Q1:25 review): Alpha Bank delivered a satisfactory set of results beating bottom line estimates on the back of higher trading income, organic cost containment and lower effective tax rate.

The €223m quarterly net profit is record level bottom line for a three-month period based on organic performance.  A conference call will follow at 12:00 GR-Time. Alpha performed better in top line revenues vs. peers (Just 2.6% q-o-q lower in NII) courtesy of lower dependence of its loan book in variable interest rates.

Q1:25 supports guidance for Net Profits of €0.85bn. Following AXIA acquisition Alpha now expects RoTE to reach 13% in FY:27 vs. 12% before and EPS no less than 0.45 vs. 0.42. In an another scenario EPS in FY:27 may reach 0.55 assuming 43% payout of which 75% in buyback for 2024 and 50% payout of which 75% in buyback for 2025, 2026 and 2027 at a share price of €2.20. In more details:

§   Net Interest Income at €395.3m down -2.6% q-o-q, on account of lower rates and fewer calendar days. Excluding the calendar days effect, NII down by -0.4% q-o-q or €1.6mn. NII down 6.2% y-o-y.

§   Fees & Commission income amounted to €107.5mn down by -6% q-o-q, with quarterly trends reflecting seasonality as well as the government measures announced in December; excluding the latter fees would have been down -1.6% q-o-q. Fees expanded by 11% y-o-y, or +16% excluding the impact from government measures.

§   Recurring costs at €203.6m in Q1:25, down -13% q/q due to the seasonal effects. Recurring OPEX up +1.6%, y-o-y on higher G&As.

§   Core PPI stood at €307.8m, up +2.7% q-o-q mainly on account of the lower OPEX line, down -4.9% y-o-y on lower net interest income.

§   Cost of Risk at 53bps in Q1:25, or 30bps excluding servicing fees and securitization expenses reflecting the de-risked portfolio and benign trends in asset quality flows.

§   Normalised Profit After Tax of €239m in Q1:25, is Reported Profit /(Loss) After Tax of €223mn excluding (a) NPA transactions impact of €12m, (b) €4mn on other adjustments and tax charge related to the above.

§   Q1:25 Normalised RoTBV at 15.4%, EPS at €0.09, 16.3% FL CET1%.

§   Net credit expansion of €0.6bn in Q1, with €2.5bn new disbursements in Greece (+32% y-o-y), driven by Greek business loans. Performing loan balances up +1% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y to €33.7bn excluding senior notes. Q1:25 evolution and strong pipeline reconfirm the outlook for the year.

§   Customer funds up +8.1% y-o-y driven by growth in AuMs growth (+12.1% y-o-y) and customer deposits (+6.6% y/y). Time deposits at 26% of domestic deposit base, with deposit beta picking up to 24%. In Q1:25, Customer deposits down €0.7bn q/q to €50.4bn in line with seasonal system outflows with AUM growth of +€0.8bn q-o-q.

§   NPE ratio flat q-o-q at 3.8%, reflecting benign asset quality flows. CoR at 53bps in Q1:25.

§   FL CET1 at 16.3% post dividend accrual of €111mn, with 71bps from organic capital generation net of the loan growth related RWA increase and a further -27bps from CRR3. Pro forma for remaining RWA relief, FL CET1 stands at 16.9%3 and Total Capital ratio at 22.7%.

§   Tangible Book Value at €7.2bn, +9.1% higher y-o-y, or +11% before distributions.

Alpha Bank trades 0.7x its FY:25 TBV, remains a top pick and we expect shares to be in the spotlight in today’s session following its strong performance in Q1:25.

The following table summarise results vs. our Q1:25 estimates:

Alpha Bank	Act	Act	Act	Overview		Est.
(In Million Euro)	1Q24	4Q24	1Q25	QoQ	YoY	1Q25	vs Est.
NII	420.2	405.7	395.3	-2.6%	-5.9%	395.0	0.1%
Fee income	96.3	114.4	107.5	-6.0%	11.7%	105.0	2.4%
Trading	37.8	43.5	47.3	8.6%	24.9%	22.0	114.9%
Other Income	5.7	13.9	8.6	-38.1%	52.0%	10.0
Total income	560.0	577.5	558.7	-3.3%	-0.2%	532.0	5.0%
Operating costs	-203.7	-238.9	-203.6	14.8%	0.0%	-215.0	5.3%
Pre-provision-profits	356.3	338.6	355.1	4.9%	-0.3%	317.0	12.0%
Core PPI	312.8	281.2	299.2	6.4%	-4.3%	285.0	5.0%
Provisions	-62.9	-63.2	-51.6	18.3%	17.9%	-53.0	2.6%
Other results	-4.3	-5.1	4.0	178.1%	193.3%	7.0
PBT	289.1	270.3	307.5	13.8%	6.4%	271.0	13.5%
Corporate taxes	84.8	69.1	71.9	4.0%	-15.2%	75.0	-4.2%
Net profit (continued)	204	201	236	17.1%	15.3%	196	20.2%
Discontinued operations	6.8	-36.3	-12.2			-2.0
Net profit	211.1	164.9	223.4	35.5%	5.8%	194.0	15.2%

CC Details: Friday 09-05-2025, 12:00 GR-Time

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Kind Regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

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11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478988/754

Email: [email protected]