Today’s Headlines
· Greek Economy–2Q24 GDP (provisional data): GDP increases by 2.32% y-o-y and by 1.08% q-o-q in 2Q24 driven by Gross capital formation (investments and inventory) and despite weak consumption (+0.9% y-o-y)
· The Greek PM says minimum wage and reform of the national healthcare system as key priorities for the government term; Announces tariff increases for Athens Water (EYDAP)
· DBRS affirms BBB rating in Greece, with positive trends from stable
· SYRIZA central committee approves censure motion against leader Stefanos Kasselakis
· Foreign investors had outflows in August
· Titan Cement aims at raising USD 500m through the US IPO (press)
· Gigabit Voucher to be launched on 15 September-Press
· Possible takeover scenario of Novibet by OPAP
· ADMIE Holding trades ex-dividend
Market Comment
ATHEX headed south on Friday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index fell by 0.24% at 1,443.13 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.27%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.46% Banks Index: -0.93%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 74.2m, down from Thursday’s EUR 105.8m. On a weekly basis, the General Index climbed by 0.83% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +0.89%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.60%, Banks index: -0.90%). We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European markets today. Ahead this week: ADMIE Holding ex-dividend today, Athens International Airport 1H24 results tomorrow, Aegean Airlines 1H24 results on Wednesday, Bank of Cyprus EGM on Friday, Moody’s rating review on Friday amc.
Macro Headlines
Greek Economy–2Q24 GDP (provisional data): GDP increases by 2.32% y-o-y and by 1.08% q-o-q in 2Q24 driven by Gross capital formation (investments and inventory) and despite weak consumption (+0.9% y-o-y)
|
EUR bn |
Current Prices, SA |
YoY |
Real Prices, SA |
QoQ |
YoY |
|
2Q22 |
50,961 |
15.10% |
47,419 |
0.40% |
6.85% |
|
3Q22 |
52,010 |
12.82% |
47,687 |
0.57% |
4.03% |
|
4Q22 |
52,943 |
10.05% |
48,224 |
1.13% |
4.31% |
|
1Q23 |
53,959 |
8.01% |
48,222 |
0.00% |
1.93% |
|
2Q23 |
55,010 |
7.95% |
48,632 |
0.85% |
2.56% |
|
3Q23 |
55,388 |
6.49% |
48,680 |
0.10% |
2.08% |
|
4Q23 |
55,692 |
5.19% |
48,860 |
0.37% |
1.32% |
|
1Q24 |
56,738 |
5.15% |
49,227 |
0.75% |
2.08% |
|
2Q24 |
57,828 |
5.12% |
49,759 |
1.08% |
2.32% |
The Facts: The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) announced that 2Q24 GDP (in Real Prices, seasonally adjusted) rose by 1.08% QoQ, and by 2.32% YoY, compared to a 2.08% YoY growth in 1Q24 and a 2.56% YoY growth in 2Q23. In 1H24 terms, Ral GDP rose by 2.22% YoY. On current (Nominal) seasonally adjusted basis, 2Q24 GDP (in volume terms) rose by a strong 5.1%.
Our Analysis: According to the 2Q24 GDP breakdown (seasonally adjusted), total consumption was up 0.9 YoY, exports also up by 2.1% YoY, Gross capital formation was up by 29.7% YoY and finally imports were up by 9.6% YoY.
Our View: Solid 2Q24 and 1H24 GDP data driven by gross capital formation which offset weak exports and consumption, paves the way for annual GDP growth of >2% for 2024 (EC forecast at 2.2%, Greek Budget at +2.5%).
The Greek PM says minimum wage and reform of the national healthcare system as key priorities for the government term; Announces tariff increases for Athens Water (EYDAP)
During his annual speech at the Thessaloniki international fair, the Greek PM presented a total of 45 measures that will have many beneficiaries, including private and public sector employees, farmers, and, especially families, with the incentives to buy homes and have more children and fewer taxes for the National Health Service doctors. Additionally, the Greek PM said yesterday that EYDAP will soon proceed with tariff increases to support its capex needs. Main interventions include:
1. Lowering of the social contributions by 1% from 1/1/2025
2. Pension increase by 2.2%-2.5% for 2mio beneficiaries and new state pension at EUR 436 from EUR 427 previously
3. Increase of the minimum wage to EUR 950 by 2027 from EUR 830 currently; minimum wage expected to increase to EUR 870 in April 2025
4. Extraordinary support measures of EUR 243m in December mainly towards pensioners
5. Lower tax for the overtime pays of the workers in the national healthcare system
6. Salary increases for 700k beneficiaries in the public sector
7. Reform of the unemployment benefits
DBRS affirms BBB rating in Greece, with positive trends from stable
DBRS Ratings changed the trends on Greece’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to Positive from Stable and confirmed the ratings at BBB (low). According to the agency, GDP is expected to expand by more than 2.0% in both 2024 and 2025. Additionally, the Greek public debt ratio is expected to continue to fall to 152.7% of GDP this year, implying a drop of around 54 pps in only four years, one of the steepest declines in modern times, benefitting from rising primary surpluses, moderate interest rates, and sound, although decelerating, nominal growth.
Political Headlines
SYRIZA central committee approves censure motion against leader Stefanos Kasselakis
A motion of censure against the leader of the main opposition party leader, Stefanos Kasselakis, was approved on Sunday by the 300-member central committee of SYRIZA. As a result, an extraordinary party congress will be convened with new delegates to decide on the process for electing a new leader.
Market Headlines
Foreign investors had outflows in August
According to Athens Stock Exchange, foreign investors had outflows of EUR 45.8m in August vs. outflows of EUR 25.8m in July and accounted for 59.7% of total transactions’ value against 57.9% in July. Recall that August is the fourth consecutive month of outflows that amount to EUR 377.4m.
Company Headlines
Titan Cement aims at raising USD 500m through the US IPO (press)
According to Bloomberg, Titan Cement aims at raising at least USD 500m through the IPO of a minority stake in its US subsidiary, Titan America, expecting a total valuation of the US subsidiary of no less than USD 2bn. As a reminder, last May, Titan Cement announced its Intention to list TITAN America in the US equity market, with the transaction anticipated to be completed in early 2025. It is noted that the total market of Titan Cement is currently at c EUR 2.5bn, (USD 2.75bn), with the US operations generating c. 59% of Group EBITDA. That said, we expect the US IPO, benefited by the more favorable valuation environment of the local market Titan still trades at a 50-60% discount compared to US peers), to further unlock hidden value for the stock, and consequently we reiterate our BUY recommendation with a EUR 40.6/share Target Price.
Gigabit Voucher to be launched on 15 September-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), the new Gigabit (fiber optic) voucher will be launched on 15 September as well as the new wholesale prices of OTE (up to 28% discount to the other vendors). The news is expected and positive on OTE.
Possible takeover scenario of Novibet by OPAP
According to powergame.gr OPAP may be interested to acquire Novibet.
ADMIE Holding trades ex-dividend
ADMIE Holding trades today ex-dividend of EUR 0.0582/share (DY: 2.65%).
Calendar of Events
Macros
10/09/24 | CPI AUG & Industrial Production JUL
13/09/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises JUL & Import Price Index in Industry JUL
13/09/24 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
20/09/24 | Current Account Balance JUL & Turnover Index in Industry JUL
27/09/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator SEP & Building Activity JUN
2Q/1H24 Results Release
10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
11/09/24 | Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
12/09/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt), Alpha Trust Andromeda
16/09/24 | KRI-KRI (Bef -mkt)
17/09/24 | Noval Property
19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm
20/09/24 | Premia Properties, Logismos
25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)
26/09/24 | EYDAP, INTERTECH, Loulis Food
27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Alpha Trust Holdings, Alumil (Aft-mkt), Biokarpet, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Trastor REIC
30/09/24 | Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis
EGM / AGM
10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM), MED (AGM)
13/09/24 | Bank of Cyprus (EGM)
16/09/24 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (EGM)
17/09/24 | MED (EGM)
19/09/24 | Ideal Holdings (EGM)
25/09/24 | Attica Bank (EGM)
26/09/24 | Jumbo (EGM)
02/10/24 | Cenergy Holdings (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.0582438822)
11/09/24 | Orilina Properties
12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)
11/10/24 | Ktima Lazaridis (EUR 0.03)
23/10/24 | ELVE (EUR 0.40)
04/11/24 | OPAP (interim dividend EUR 0.60)
Ex-Capital Return
12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)
Initiation of trading of new shares
12/09/24 | Attica Bank (5.557.131 shares from the merger by absorption of Pancreta Bank)
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
10/09/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (10:00 GR Time)
17/09/24 | KRI-KRI (08:45 GR Time)
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