Today’s Headlines
· Banking System Interest Rates | January 2024
· Online gaming attracts more competition
· Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – February 2024
· HFSF exercised its Upsize Option Right in Piraeus Financial Holdings
· Optima Bank 4Q/FY 2023 results out tomorrow at 09:30 Athens/07:30 London Time
· Eurobank to extend ceiling on housing loans until May 2025
· Cenergy Holdings | 4Q/FY23e Preview: Strong Profitability, on track to meet the EUR 200m EBITDA target; we expect EUR 0.08 DPS
· Airport of Athens Results out
· Bank of Greece 2023 results, DPS unchanged at EUR 0.6720
· Olympia Group to acquire 53.73% in Entersoft, proceeds with tender offer
· Intralot Capital Luxembourg will redeem EUR 130.0m of Senior notes on 15 March
· Lamda Development FY23 Results release date
· NOVAL Property FY23 Results Review
Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.85% at 1,434.87 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.05%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.53%, Banks Index: +2.26%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 128.9m, up from Friday’s EUR 88.5m. We expect the positive momentum to continue in ATHEX today, with Piraeus Bank continuing setting the tone.
Sector Headlines
Banking System Interest Rates | January 2024
|
New Production |
Nov’23 |
Dec’23 |
Jan’24 |
MoM |
|
Mortgage loans (fixed up to 1 yr) |
5.10% |
5.08% |
5.47% |
0.39% |
|
Consumer loans |
14.96% |
15.11% |
15.00% |
-0.11% |
|
Business (fixed maturity floating) |
6.04% |
5.88% |
5.87% |
-0.01% |
|
(a) Average loans |
6.25% |
6.11% |
6.15% |
0.04% |
|
HH deposits (Overnight ) |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
|
HH term deposits (up to 1 year) |
1.79% |
1.83% |
1.83% |
0.00% |
|
Corporate term deposits (up to 1 year) |
3.14% |
3.25% |
3.19% |
-0.06% |
|
(b) Average deposits |
0.50% |
0.51% |
0.53% |
0.02% |
|
Interest Rate Spread [(a) – (b)] |
5.75% |
5.60% |
5.62% |
0.02% |
|
Outstanding amounts (Back Book) |
|
|
|
|
|
(a) Loans |
6.40% |
6.35% |
6.36% |
0.01% |
|
(b) Deposits |
0.48% |
0.51% |
0.53% |
0.02% |
|
Interest Rate Spread [(a) – (b)] |
5.92% |
5.84% |
5.83% |
-0.01% |
source: Bank of Greece
Facts: Bank of Greece announced that the average interest rate on new production of loans widened by 4bp m-o-m to 6.15% in January 2024 and the average interest rate on new production of deposits widened marginally by 2bp m-o-m to 0.53%. The increase in the average interest rate on new loan production by 4bp m-o-m is attributed to new mortgages (+39bp m-o-m). Thus, the interest rate spread for new production increased by 2bp m-o-m to 5.62%. On outstanding amounts, the interest rate spread squeezed slightly by 1bp m-o-m to 5.83%.
Online gaming attracts more competition
According to press reports, two more companies are expected to apply for online gaming licenses from the HGC in order to obtain a Type 2 license for live casinos and online slots, while it is unclear whether they will apply for a Type 1 licence for sports betting. It is noted that there are currently 18 legally licensed companies.
Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – February 2024
Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share rose to 48.11% in February 2024 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 73.6/MWh, down by EUR 19.4/MWh m-o-m and sharply lower by EUR 82.6/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 4,543/GWh, up by 9.5% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 14.93% (16.76% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 11.77%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 6.38% and MOH’s NRG with 5.44%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in February 2024 dropped by 1.25% m-o-m to 51.89%. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 41% of total (vs. 42% in January), Natural Gas follows with 29% (vs. 30% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 5% (6%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 4% (4%) and 2% (2%) respectively and finally, Imports 20% (16%).
Company Headlines
HFSF exercised its Upsize Option Right in Piraeus Financial Holdings
The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund announced that the BoD decided to exercise the right to increase the number of the shares offered in the Offering by 62,518,361 shares, so that the total offer shares increase from 275,080,789 (22% stake) to 337,599,150 (27.0% stake). The allocation split of any Upsize Option Shares that may be sold between the Greek public Offering and the international offering is at the sole discretion of the HFSF acting in its capacity as selling shareholder. Press reports (euro2day, mononews) indicate that the book has already oversubscribed by 3.0x-4.0x hitherto. Piraeus Financial Holdings is one of our top picks in the sector, with TP of EUR 5.00/share.
Optima Bank 4Q/FY 2023 results out tomorrow at 09:30 Athens/07:30 London Time
Optima Bank is set to report 4Q/ FY 2023 results tomorrow at 09:30 Athens/07:30 London Time. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Dial-in numbers GR: +30 210 94 60 800, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK& Intl: +44 (0) 2023 059 5872, US: +1 516 447 5632.
Eurobank to extend ceiling on housing loans until May 2025
Eurobank announced the extension of the ceiling on performing housing loans (EUR, Swiss Franc) for one year (up to May 2025), with the same terms announced a year ago (1M Euribor at 2.70%, 3M Euribor at 2.85% MRO at 3.30% and SARON at 1.20%). Recall that Eurobank is scheduled to report 4Q/FY 2023 results and its new business plan on Thursday, post-market close. Eurobank is one of our top picks in the sector, with TP of EUR 2.41/share.
Cenergy Holdings || Buy | CP EUR 7.40 | TP EUR 8.10
4Q/FY23e Preview: Strong Profitability, on track to meet the EUR 200m EBITDA target; we expect EUR 0.08 DPS
Cenergy Holdings is set to announce its 4Q/FY23e Results on 6 March amc, with a conference call scheduled for the following day. We expect a strong quarter, with similar trends compared to those in the previous quarter, driven by the acceleration of backlog execution on healthy margins. On the flip side, we see net profits to be negatively affected by the headwinds from the high financial costs and also the revaluation losses from inventory. In more detail, we see group sales up by 12.4% y-o-y at EUR 427.5m, driven by a) the Cables segment, which operate at high utilization rates and b) also to the pipes segment, which is expected to have further stepped-up its operations, aided by the huge accumulated backlog (Group backlog EUR 3.08bn in 30/09/2023). Turning to profitability, we see EBITDA adj. (i.e. excluding metal impact and one-offs) at EUR 54.1m, up by 28.5% y-o-y, while accounting for EUR 8m Depreciation, increased financial expenses of EUR 17m (mainly driven by the recent interest rate hikes and to lesser extent by the increased by EUR 78m y-o-y net debt as of 30/06/2023) and 22% effective tax rate, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 20.6m, up by 26.4% y-o-y. In FY23e terms, we see Revenues up by 12.0% y-o-y to EUR 1.598m, EBITDA adj. at EUR 199.1m (also up 45.5% y-o-y) and Net profits at EUR 67.6m (+11.9% y-o-y). Finally, we expect CENERGY to declare a EUR 0.08/share dividend (DY: 1.1%)
4Q/FY23e Group Key P&L Forecasts
|
EUR m |
4Q22 |
4Q23e |
Y-o-Y change |
FY22 |
FY23e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
380.4 |
427.5 |
12.4% |
1426.0 |
1597.5 |
12.0% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
42.1 |
54.1 |
28.5% |
136.8 |
199.1 |
45.5% |
|
mgn |
11.1% |
12.7% |
159 |
9.6% |
12.5% |
287 |
|
Net Profit |
16.3 |
20.6 |
26.4% |
60.4 |
67.6 |
11.9% |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
Airport of Athens Results out
The Airport of Athens released a strong set of FY23 Results, with total revenues up by 26.6% y-o-y to EUR 603.7m, driven by air activities which were up by 22.2% to EUR 448.9m, representing 74% of total, while non air activities revenues shaped at EUR 134.8m, up by 23.2% y-o-y. Turning to profitability, EBITDA adj. was up by 16.7% y-o-y to EUR 367.2m, and net profits were up by 37.8% to EUR 231.5m. Net debt in FY23 stood at EUR 649.7m, implying a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.8x. Finally, AIA declared final DPS of 0.33 (DY: 4%), on top of the interim dividend of EUR 0.433/share distributed before the IPO.
Bank of Greece 2023 results, DPS unchanged at EUR 0.6720
Bank of Greece announced that net profit came in at EUR 77.4m vs. EUR 456.8m in 2022. The General Council of the BoG decided to propose to the General Meeting of Shareholders the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.6720/share (unchanged, DY: 4.6%).
Olympia Group to acquire 53.73% in Entersoft, proceeds with tender offer
Entersoft announced that its shareholders who hold 16,119,831 common registered voting shares, representing in aggregate 53,73% have agreed with Olympia Group Ltd and the support of an international investor to acquire the total number of shares held by the shareholders via a special purpose company to be established to that end by the Investors at EUR 8.00/share. Conversely, the Investors undertook to ensure the announcement of a voluntary tender offer for the acquisition of the company’s total number of shares at the price of EUR 8.00/share, The tender offer is expected to be subject to the following conditions: (i) acquisition by the acquirer of shares representing at least 67% of the total voting rights in the company on the date the tender offer and (ii) receipt of all necessary approvals by the competent competition authorities, including the Hellenic Competition Commission. This acquisition will take place within the acceptance period of the tender offer at the Investors’ election either (i) by virtue of a bilateral sale and purchase transaction between each shareholder and the acquirer or (ii) by means of each shareholder’s acceptance of the tender offer. The above binding undertakings of the shareholders shall remain valid, provided that the Tender Offer is launched, and in any event, they shall cease after 31 August 2024. The offer price of EUR 8.00/share, at 6.4% premium to Friday’s closing price and an implied EV/EBITDA of 18.7x is well above the median M& A EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.0x and hence the news is positive on the sector.
Intralot Capital Luxembourg will redeem EUR 130.0m of Senior notes on 15 March
The company announced that its 100% subsidiary Intralot Capital Luxembourg will proceed on 15 March 2024 with the early partial redemption of EUR 130.0m in principal amount, plus accrued interest, of the outstanding 5.250% Notes due September 2024, with current outstanding balance of EUR 229.6m. Following the partial redemption, the outstanding balance will amount to EUR 99.6m.
Lamda Development FY23 Results release date
Lamda Development is set to release its FT23 results on 17 April, followed by a conference call the next day.
NOVAL Property FY23 Results Review
Noval Property released earlier the Financial Results for 2023. In a snap view, Rental income and EBITDA adj (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) were up by 18% and by 39% respectively to EUR 29.3m and EUR 17.8m, driven by increased gross assets which were up by 12% y-o-y to EUR 670m. Noval Property reported Net profit of EUR 64.6m, up by 164% compared to 2022, driven by revaluation gains on investment property of EUR 47.6m. Additionally, NAV was up by 17% to EUR 427.4m, while adjusting for shares outstanding NAV/share shaped at EUR 3.98/share. Finally Noval Property’s BoD proposed a dividend payout of EUR 3,158,134 for the year ending on 31.12.2023, 44% up vs. 2022.
Calendar of Events
Macros
07/03/24 | 4Q:23 GDP (provisional data) & 2023 GDP (estimates)
08/03/24 | CPI FEB & Industrial Production JAN
08/03/24 | DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review
FY23 Results
05/03/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
06/03/24 | Optima bank (09:30), Cenergy Holdings (Aft-mkt)
07/03/24 | Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings, Viohalco, Autohellas, Attica Bank
11/03/24 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)
12/03/24 | National Bank (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)
13/03/24 | Titan Cement, OPAP (Aft-mkt)
20/03/24 | Motodynamics
21/03/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt)
27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
28/03/24 | Trastor REIC
03/04/24 | QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
06/03/24 | Fourlis (EGM)
17/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)
18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)
23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)
25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
19/03/24 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.60/share)
29/04/24 | OPAP
Ex-Capital Return
26/03/24 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 2.20)
|
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |
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