Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.87% at 1,716.22 units (FTSE Large Cap: -1.04%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.78%, Banks Index: -2.05%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 129.0m, up from Monday’s EUR 98.9m. We expect ATHEX to move seek direction today, eyeing the international markets.
Today’s Headlines
· Banking System Interest Rates | March 2025
· National Bank of Greece Share Buyback, 1Q25 results out tomorrow
· Piraeus Financial Holdings 1Q25 Results | 1Q points that Piraeus is on track to meet FY guidance
· Titan Cement 1Q25e Results Preview | Solid start, points to another strong year
· PPC commences 2nd phase of construction of the 490MW solar Park in Megalopoli
· Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for April
· Jumbo expands to Canada through new franchise agreement
· OPAP trades ex-dividend today
· Prospectus for QUALCOs IPO approved-IPO timetable
Sector Headlines
Banking System Interest Rates | March 2025
|
New Production |
Jan’25 |
Feb’25 |
Mar’25 |
MoM |
|
Mortgage loans (fixed up to 1 yr) |
3.90% |
3.56% |
3.63% |
0.07% |
|
Consumer loans |
14.88% |
14.82% |
14.78% |
-0.04% |
|
Business (fixed maturity floating) |
4.54% |
4.57% |
4.12% |
-0.45% |
|
(a) Average loans |
5.10% |
5.04% |
4.75% |
-0.29% |
|
HH deposits (Overnight ) |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
|
HH term deposits (up to 1 year) |
1.64% |
1.50% |
1.40% |
-0.10% |
|
Corporate term deposits (up to 1 year) |
2.32% |
2.16% |
2.15% |
-0.01% |
|
(b) Average deposits |
0.45% |
0.41% |
0.39% |
-0.02% |
|
Interest Rate Spread [(a) – (b)] |
4.65% |
4.63% |
4.36% |
-0.27% |
|
Outstanding amounts (Back Book) |
||||
|
(a) Loans |
5.34% |
5.25% |
5.13% |
-0.12% |
|
(b) Deposits |
0.49% |
0.46% |
0.43% |
-0.03% |
|
Interest Rate Spread [(a) – (b)] |
4.85% |
4.79% |
4.70% |
-0.09% |
source: Bank of Greece
Facts: Bank of Greece announced that the average interest rate on new production of loans squeezed by 29bps m-o-m to 4.75% in March 2025, whilst the average interest rate on new production of deposits narrowed by 2bps m-o-m to 0.39%. The drop in the average interest rate on new loan production is attributed to lower interest rates on business loans (-45bps m-o-m) and on deposits to lower interest rates on household time deposits (-10bps m-o-m). Thus, the interest rate spread for new production squeezed by 27bps m-o-m to 4.36%. On outstanding amounts, the interest rate spread also squeezed by 9bps m-o-m to 4.70%.
Company Headlines
National Bank of Greece Share Buyback, 1Q25 results out tomorrow
National Bank of Greece announced that it acquired 599.572 own shares from 24 April to 05 May at an average price of EUR 9.5011/share and total cost of EUR 5.7m. NBG holds 3.024.336 own shares, which correspond to 0.33% of its share capital. NBG is set to report 1Q25 results tomorrow, post-market close and a CC will follow at 19:00 Athens/17:00 London Time.
Piraeus Financial Holdings | 1Q25 Results Review
CP: EUR 5.098 | Rating: BUY | TP: EUR 6.50 | Upside: 27.5%
1Q points that Piraeus is on track to meet FY guidance
Optima View | Piraeus reported a solid set of results that came in line with consensus estimate but beat our call on higher non-recurring revenues. Given the solid set of results, we believe that Piraeus is on track to meet or even exceed FY net profit guidance of EUR ca1.1bn. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP.
FY Guidance | Mgt reiterated NII guidance of EUR ca1.9bn and upgraded fee income guidance to EUR ca650m from EUR ca600m in February, marginally higher than our estimate of EUR 639m. It also accrued FY25 dividend of EUR ca0.44/share (50% payout), marginally higher than our estimate of EUR 0.43/share, implying a gross yield of 8.5%, one of the highest in the Greek space. Mgt will host a CC today at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time.
Bottom line | Net profit came in at EUR 283.7m (+54% q-o-q, +22% y-o-y) in 1Q25, in line with consensus estimate of EUR 283.0m and 5% higher than our call of EUR 270.5m, on higher than expected non-recurring revenues. RoaTBV stood at 14.7%, higher than FY target of ca14.0%.
Top line | Net interest income reached EUR 481.0m (-6% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y), in line with estimates. NIM squeezed further by 16bps q-o-q to 2.44%. Fee income was shaped at EUR 159.7m (-5% q-o-q, +10% y-o-y), in line with expectations. Thus, core income came in at EUR 640.7m (-6% q-o-q, -3% y-o-y). Non-recurring revenues reached EUR 8.8m, higher than Optima estimate of just 500k and lower than consensus estimate of EUR 12.0m. All in all, revenues came in at EUR 649.0m (-11% q-o-q, +10% y-o-y).
Costs | On the cost side, OpEx stood at EUR 224.0m (-15% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), in line with estimates and cost/income was shaped at 34.5% in 1Q25 vs. 36.1% in 4Q24.
Volumes | Strong NCE at EUR 1.2bn q-o-q with performing loans at EUR 34.8bn and net loans at EUR 41.3bn. Deposits slipped by EUR 1.4bn q-o-q to EUR 61.4bn and L/D ratio widened to 67.3% from 64.7% in 4Q24. Assets Under Management reached EUR 12.5bn, exceeding FY target of EUR 12.0bn.
Asset quality | Loan loss provisions landed at EUR 35.3m (-72% q-o-q, -40% y-o-y), lower than our estimate of EUR 40.9m and consensus estimate of EUR 45.0m. Cost of risk narrowed to a historical low at 35bps, below the FY target of ca50bps. Organic NPE formation stood at EUR 32.3m and hence group NPEs increased by EUR 29.2m q-o-q to ca1.1bn. The NPE ratio was flattish q-o-q at 2.6% and the NPE cash coverage ratio stood at 64.2% from 64.7% in 4Q24.
Capital dynamics | Tangible equity rose by EUR 300.7m q-o-q to EUR 7.5bn and TBV widened to EUR 6.01/share from EUR 5.78/share in 4Q24. Reported FL CET1 ratio narrowed by 30bps q-o-q to 14.2%, as it absorbed 50% payout distribution for 25e, RWAs growth of EUR 1.55bn and DTC amortization of EUR ca90.0m.
|
(EUR m) |
1Q25A |
4Q24A |
QoQ |
YoY |
vs Optima |
vs Cons |
|
Net Interest Income |
481.0 |
513.5 |
-6% |
-7% |
0% |
-1% |
|
Fee income |
159.7 |
167.4 |
-5% |
10% |
0% |
0% |
|
Core income |
640.7 |
680.9 |
-6% |
-3% |
0% |
-1% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
8.8 |
49.2 |
-82% |
-112% |
1657% |
-27% |
|
Total revenues |
649.0 |
730.1 |
-11% |
10% |
1% |
-1% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(224.0) |
(263.8) |
-15% |
11% |
-1% |
0% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
425.0 |
466.2 |
-9% |
9% |
3% |
-3% |
|
Loan Loss Provisions |
(35.3) |
(127.2) |
-72% |
-40% |
-14% |
-22% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
283.7 |
184.3 |
54% |
22% |
5% |
0% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company-Median consensus estimates
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 40.80 | TP EUR 50.50
1Q25e Results Preview | Solid start, points to another strong year
Titan Cement is scheduled to release its 1Q25e results on Thursday, before the market opening, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 16.00 local time. We expect turnover of EUR 630.7m (+1.1% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 124.0m (+12.9% y-o-y) and net income at EUR 53.1m (assuming no one-offs). Consensus estimate calls for Turnover of EUR 628m (0.4% below Optima), EBITDA of EUR 114.2m (8.6% below Optima and Net Profit of EUR 51.0m, 6.5% below Optima. The Company will hold a conference call also on Thursday (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). The company has already declared an EUR 3.00/share dividend (DY: 7.5%, ex-date: 30 June).
Greece: We expect the solid domestic demand and healthy export volumes to have continued in 1Q25e, after the strong recovery witnessed in 2024, hence supporting segmental sales. In this context, we see turnover rising by c. 7.1% y-o-y to EUR 110.9m, while EBITDA is seen up by 14.4% y-o-y to EUR 13.5m, driven by 77pps margin expansion.
US: Titan America released earlier a solid set of Results, which is attributed to its resilient pricing strategies that offset the adverse weather conditions and a downturn in residential market demand. Specifically, in Euro terms, we see turnover marginally up by 0.7% y-o-y to EUR 373m in 1Q25e, while assuming a 350bps margin expansion we reach an EBITDA of EUR 75.9m, representing a 22% y-o-y advance.
SE Europe: We expect that the adverse weather conditions in the region and the increased y-o-y Energy costs (and also q-o-q), took their toll in regional performance and profitability in 1Q25e. That said, we estimate revenues down by 6.5% y-o-y to EUR 88.8m, while the due to the spike of the energy-related opex, EBITDA is seen down by 16.1% y-o-y to EUR 27.6m in 1Q25e.
EMED: We expect that the recovered macro environment in Egypt and the stronger market dynamics in Turkey to support regional performance. Overall, turnover in 1Q25e is estimated up by 6.0% y-o-y to EUR 57.9m, resulting in EBITDA of EUR 7.0m compared to EBITDA of EUR 2.9m in 1Q24.
Below the EBITDA line: Accounting for depreciation charges of EUR 36m, net financial expenses of EUR 9m and effective Group tax rate of 20%, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 53.1m in 1Q25e compared to EUR 52.4m a year ago.
Management Guidance: Finally, we expect the management to provide us an updated guidance on regional demand, the investment programme in Greece and the US and on the cost front during the Thursday’s Conference Call (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Titan Cement 1Q25e Results Preview
|
EUR m |
1Q24 |
1Q25e |
Y-o-Y change |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
|
Turnover |
623.7 |
630.7 |
1.1% |
628.0 |
0.4% |
|
Greece |
103.5 |
110.9 |
7.1% |
|
|
|
USA |
370.6 |
373.1 |
0.7% |
|
|
|
SEE |
95.0 |
88.8 |
-6.5% |
|
|
|
E.MED |
54.6 |
57.9 |
6.0% |
|
|
|
EBITDA |
109.8 |
124.0 |
12.9% |
114.2 |
8.6% |
|
EBITDA margin |
17.60% |
19.66% |
205 |
|
|
|
Greece |
11.8 |
13.5 |
14.4% |
|
|
|
USA |
62.2 |
75.9 |
22.0% |
|
|
|
SEE |
32.9 |
27.6 |
-16.1% |
|
|
|
E.MED |
2.9 |
7.0 |
141.4% |
|
|
|
Net income (adj.) |
52.4 |
53.1 |
1.3% |
51.0 |
6.5% |
Source: Optima bank, The Company
Consensus estimates are compiled by 13 Analysts and provided by the Company
PPC commences 2nd phase of construction of the 490MW solar Park in Megalopoli
PPC announced the commencement of the 2nd phase of construction for the 490MW photovoltaic plant in Megalopoli, 125 MW plus another 125 MW already being under construction at the site of the former lignite mines and the construction for the rest 240 MW will begin within 2026. In total, PPC Renewables will construct 540 MW of photovoltaics in the region (50 MW is already in operation). It is reminded that according to its 3-year strategic plan, in the period 2025-2027, PPC Group will develop an additional 5.6 GW of RES in Greece and the wider region of SEE, with the aim of increasing its installed capacity from RES to 11.8 GW by 2027
Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for April
Athens International Airport (AIA) released its passenger traffic data for April 2025, according to which total passenger traffic up by 9.0% y-o-y, driven by international traffic (up by 10.0% y-o-y), while domestic traffic was also up +6.6% y-o-y. For the 4M25 total passenger traffic was up by +10.6% y-o-y, reaching 8.5m passengers with international passengers up by 13.3% y-o-y and domestic passengers up by 4.1% y-o-y.
Jumbo expands to Canada through new franchise agreement
According to press reports, (capital.gr) Jumbo has expanded its collaboration with the Israeli group Fox by granting them franchise rights for the Canadian market (Fox group operates 3 stores in Israel and plans to open 2 more). Fox will invest in creating 5-10 Jumbo stores in Canada over the next three years, starting in the 2H26. Mr. Vakakis noted the limited profitability of the franchise network and also emphasized the importance of not affecting the supply and service of the current network. We remind that Jumbo operates a network of 40 franchise stores in seven countries, while also recently approved a license agreement for the opening of a franchise store in Moldova.
OPAP trades ex-dividend today
OPAP will trade today ex-final dividend of EUR 0.80 per share (DY: 4.0%).
Prospectus for QUALCOs IPO approved-IPO timetable
The prospectus for the IPO of QUALCO was approved yesterday, with the public offer for the up to 10,500,000 new shares and the sale of up to 7,500,000 existing shares at a EUR 5.04-5.46/share price range is expected to commence today and conclude on Friday, 9 May. It is noted that 8,585,894 shares (c. 48% of total offered) are already allocated to cornerstone investors, namely the Latsis family, Moundreas and Antenna Group. The issuance price is expected to be determined on Friday and the commencement of trading of all shares on 15 May.
Calendar of Events
Macros
08/05/25 | Trade Balance MAR (ELSTAT)
09/05/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI APR (ELSTAT), Industrial Production MAR (ELSTAT)
14/05/25 | Import Price Index in Industry MAR
16/05/25 | Fitch Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review
1Q:25 Results Release
08/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement (Bef-mkt)
09/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (Bef-mkt)
12/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
13/05/25 | KRI-KRI (Aft-mkt)
14/05/25 | Optima bank, OTE (Bef-mkt)
15/05/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Attica Bank
19/05/25 | Austriacard (Aft-mkt)
20/05/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
21/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Quest Holding (Aft-mkt)
22/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt), AS Company (trading update) (Aft-mkt)
23/05/25 | Premia Properties (trading update)
26/05/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
28/05/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM), Premia Properties (AGM)
14/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)
15/05/25 | Performance Technologies (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM), Loulis Food (AGM)
22/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (AGM), Thessaloniki Water Supply (AGM), Alpha Trust Holdings (AGM)
23/05/25 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM), Fais Group (AGM)
28/05/25 | Thrace Plastics (AGM)
29/05/25 | Profile Systems (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
10/06/25 | EYDAP (AGM)
11/06/25 | Jumbo (AGM), Prodea Investments (AGM)
12/06/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)
13/06/25 | Trade Estates (AGM), Interlife (AGM)
16/06/25 | Ble Kedros (AGM)
17/06/25 | Alter Ego Media (AGM)
18/06/25 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Mevaco (AGM), Petropoulos (AGM), Alpha Real Estate Services (AGM)
20/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM), Sunrise Mezz Plc (AGM)
23/06/25 | OTE (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
26/06/25 | LAMDA Development (AGM)
01/07/25 | ΚΡΙ–ΚΡΙ (AGM)
02/07/25 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)
03/07/25 | Elinoil (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
15/07/25 | AVAX (AGM)
22/07/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (AGM)
28/08/25 | Intralot (AGM)
08/09/25 | Orilina Properties (AGM)
Ex-Capital Return
03/06/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.298/share)
Ex-FY24 Dividend
07/05/25 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.80), BriQ Properties (EUR 0.135)
15/05/25 | Premia Properties (EUR 0.03)
16/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (EUR 2.00)
19/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.32)
20/05/25 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.80)
23/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (EUR 0.03)
26/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (EUR 0.479), Loulis Food (EUR 0.30)
27/05/25 | Alpha Trust Holdings (EUR 0.578)
03/06/25 | National Bank of Greece (EUR 0.44), Noval Property (EUR 0.043), Performance Technologies
10/06/25 | Thrace Plastics (remaining EUR 0.17)
16/06/25 | Prodea Investments
18/06/25 | EYDAP (EUR 0.07)
19/06/25 | Trade Estates (remaining EUR 0.052)
23/06/25 | Optima bank (EUR 0.57), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.29), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.30), Ble Kedros
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14), Viohalco (EUR 0.16), Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 0.50)
25/06/25 | Motor Oil (remaining EUR 1.10), GEK TERNA (EUR 0.40)
26/06/25 | ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.09)
27/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (EUR 0.15)
30/06/25 | Titan Cement (EUR 3.00), Euroconsultants (EUR 0.04)
01/07/25 | Profile Systems (EUR 0.064657), Thessaloniki Water Supply, AUSTRIACARD Holdings (EUR 0.11)
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (remaining EUR 0.55), Interlife (EUR 0.20)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
04/07/25 | Mevaco
10/07/25 | AS Company (EUR 0.17)
21/07/25 | PPC (EUR 0.40), Space Hellas (EUR 0.15)
04/08/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (EUR 1.92)
21/08/25 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.40)
25/08/25 | ADMIE Holding
02/09/25 | AVAX (EUR 0.07)
11/09/25 | Orilina Properties
Share Capital Increase (Evropi Holdings)
28/04/25 | Ex-rights date
02/05/25-13/05/25 | Trading period of rights
02/05/25-16/05/25 | Exercise period of rights
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
08/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (09:30 GR time)
Greek Public Offering Period
07/05/25-09/05/25 | QUALCO GROUP
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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