Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.18% at 1,411.98 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.03%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.12%, Banks Index: +0.42%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 87.1m, up from Monday’s EUR 69.5m. We expect another range bound session on low volumes for ATHEX today, as investors hold a wait and see stance ahead of the announcements of the HFSF for Piraeus Bank.
Today’s Headlines
· Banking System Loans | January 2024
· Banking System Deposits | January 2024
· HELLENiQ ENERGY | 4Q/FY23e Results Preview
· Piraeus Financial Holdings to apply for dividend distribution-Press
· CENERGY’s CPW is awarded a 27km steel pipes contract
· Intralot Common Bond Loan to commence trading today on ATHEX
· Entersoft denied press reports on acquisition
· QUEST confirms interest for ACS
Sector Headlines
Banking System Loans | January 2024
|
(EUR m) |
Nov ’23 |
Dec ’23 |
Jan ’24 |
|
Total credit |
190,291 |
195,322 |
190,692 |
|
General Government |
77,035 |
76,916 |
75,063 |
|
Private sector |
113,256 |
118,407 |
115,629 |
|
Corporate |
71,402 |
76,363 |
73,853 |
|
Sole Proprietors |
4,496 |
4,595 |
4,546 |
|
Household |
37,358 |
37,449 |
37,230 |
|
Monthly net flow |
1,370 |
2,776 |
-4,473 |
|
% y-o-y |
2.9% |
2.5% |
1.9% |
|
Private sector Monthly net flow |
792 |
3,894 |
-2,734 |
|
% y-o-y |
2.8% |
3.6% |
3.0% |
source: BoG
Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 190.7bn in January 2024 (+1.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 4,473m), on the back of negative monthly net flow of the private sector by EUR 2,734m and the General Government by EUR 1,739m. Loans to the private sector increased by 3.0% y-o-y to EUR 115.6bn.
Comment: Net credit expansion turned negative in January. In more detail, business loans reached EUR 73.9bn (+6.0% y-o-y, negative monthly flow by EUR 2,506m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 4.5bn (-1.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 79m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR 37.2bn (-1.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 150m). Housing loans came in at EUR 28.2bn (-3.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 145m). Consumer loans reached EUR 8.7bn (+3.8% y-o-y, zero net flow). Corporate loans accounted for 64% of private sector loans, household loans for 32% and other loans for the remaining 4%.
Banking System Deposits | January 2024
|
(EUR m) |
Nov ’23 |
Dec ’23 |
Jan ’24 |
|
System Deposits |
196,379 |
201,624 |
198,050 |
|
General Government |
7,896 |
6,836 |
8,371 |
|
Private sector |
188,482 |
194,788 |
189,679 |
|
Corporate |
44,880 |
48,162 |
45,022 |
|
Household |
143,603 |
146,626 |
144,657 |
|
Private Sector Monthly net flow |
-904 |
6,376 |
-5,238 |
|
Private Sector % y-o-y |
2.4% |
3.1% |
2.7% |
|
Private Sector % y-t-d |
-0.1% |
3.2% |
-2.6% |
source: BoG
Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 198.0bn (+2.7% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 3,702m) in January 2024. General Government deposits reached EUR ca8.4bn (+2.9% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 1,536m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 189.7bn (+2.7% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 5,238m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR 45.0bn (+1.6% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 3,167m) and household deposits at EUR 144.7bn (+3.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 2,070m). Household deposits accounted for 76% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 24%.
Comment: The monthly drop in private sector deposits in January is attributed primarily to corporate deposits. Time deposits posted a positive monthly net flow by EUR 307.5m and accounted for 19.5% in January vs. 18.8% in December 2023. Liquidity remains ample, with the LDR at 61.0% vs. 60.8% in December 2023 and the commercial surplus narrowed to EUR 74.0bn from 76.4bn in December.
Company Headlines
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 8.24
4Q/FY23e Results Preview
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q23 on February 29th, after the close of the market. Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 258m (-45% YoY on tough comparables) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 133m from EUR 261m in 4Q22. Turning to divisional performance, we expect HE, also benefited by the uninterrupted operation of the refineries, to have capitalized on the healthy refining margins through the quarter, driving the segmental EBITDA adj. at EUR 218m (vs. EUR 440m a year ago), while marketing contribution is expected weak at EUR 19m, driven by the mild weather conditions and the cap on margins in Greece. With regards to Petchems, we expect the weak environment during the quarter to weigh on segmental profitability, with the EBITDA contribution seen at EUR 12m, vs. EUR 26m last year. Finally, we estimate RES EBITDA of EUR 20m from the 356MW installed capacity to more than offset the EUR 10m loss towards the E&P activity. It is noted that our estimates stand at the upper end of the consensus estimates.
4Q/FY23e P&L forecasts
|
EUR m |
4Q22 |
4Q23e |
y-o-y |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
FY22 |
FY23e |
y-o-y |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
149 |
184 |
23% |
|
|
1,717 |
1089 |
-37% |
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
465 |
258 |
-45% |
229 |
+12.7% |
1,601 |
1226 |
-23% |
|
refining |
440 |
218 |
-50% |
|
|
1384 |
1025 |
-26% |
|
marketing |
14 |
19 |
36% |
|
|
138 |
117 |
-15% |
|
petchems |
16 |
12 |
-28% |
|
|
74 |
47 |
-37% |
|
RES/other |
-6 |
10 |
-259% |
|
|
5 |
37 |
631% |
|
IFRS Net Income |
-232 |
61 |
nm |
|
|
890 |
523 |
-41% |
|
“Adjusted” Net Income** |
261 |
133 |
-49% |
93 |
+39.8% |
1,006 |
629 |
-37% |
Source: Optima bank, The Company *excluding inventory effect and one-offs
Consensus estimates are provided by the Company and are compiled based on the contribution from 10 brokerage firms
Piraeus Financial Holdings to apply for dividend distribution-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), Piraeus Financial Holdings published yesterday the annual financial statements of 2023 and therefore will submit a request to SSM for the approval of a dividend distribution of 10% of net profit. Recall that Piraeus generated a net profit of EUR 788.1m in 2023 and therefore we estimate a dividend of EUR 0.063 per share, implying a gross div. yield of 1.6%. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector with a TP of EUR 5.00/share.
CENERGY’s CPW is awarded a 27km steel pipes contract
Cenergy Holdings announced that Corinth Pipeworks, its steel pipes segment, was awarded a contract from Technip FMC for 27 km of High Frequency Welded steel pipes for the Utsira High Project development project in the North Sea.
Intralot Common Bond Loan to commence trading today on ATHEX
The trading of 130,000 bonds on the fixed income segment of the regulated market of ATHEX commences today. The ticker symbol of the Bond is «ΙΝΛΟΤΟ1» in Greek and «INLOTB1» in latin font. The commencement trading price is EUR 1,000 per Bond, namely 100% of the nominal value. The net proceeds of the issue amounted to EUR 124.5m and will be used for the repayment of part of the existing bond of EUR 229.6m due September 2024, issued by the subsidiary Intralot Capital Luxembourg SA.
Entersoft denied press reports on acquisition
Entersoft announced that shareholders have informed the company that they have not entered into any agreement with anyone for the disposal of their shares.
QUEST confirms interest for ACS
QUEST, in an official response to the press reports, confirmed yesterday that it has recently received interest and proposals regarding ACS from international potential investors, adding that it has not entered into any binding agreement for the participation of a new investor in the share capital of ACS.
Calendar of Events
Macros
28/02/24 | Building Activity NOV & Economic Sentiment Indicator FEB
29/02/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC & Producer Price Index (PPI) in Industry JAN
FY23 Results
27/02/24 | Premia Properties (Flash Note)
28/02/24 | Ideal Holdings (Flash Note) (Bef-mkt)
29/02/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Entersoft (Bef-mkt)
05/03/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
06/03/24 | Optima bank (09:30), Cenergy Holdings
07/03/24 | Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings, Viohalco, Autohellas
11/03/24 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)
12/03/24 | National Bank (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt)
13/03/24 | Titan Cement, OPAP (Aft-mkt)
27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
04/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority (EGM)
06/03/24 | Fourlis (EGM)
17/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)
18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)
23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)
25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
19/03/24 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.60/share)
29/04/24 | OPAP
Ex-Capital Return
26/03/24 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 2.20)
Corporate Bond Issuance
28/02/24 | Intralot – Start of trading of new bonds
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Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |
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