Market Comment
ATHEX headed marginally south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.14% at 1,597.85 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.14%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.59%, Banks Index: +0.48%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 156.1m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 143.7m. We expect the big protests and the international risk-off sentiment to weigh on ATHEX today.
Today’s Headlines
· Banking System Loans | January 2025
· Banking System Deposits | January 2025
· MSCI standard Greece-no changes
· ATHEX Indices composition changes
· Alpha Services and Holdings 4Q24 results beat estimates, 75% of remuneration in share buyback, BP targets feasible
· Alpha Services and Holdings acquired AstroBank in Cyprus for at least EUR 205.0m
· Eurobank Holdings 4Q24 results beat our call, BP targets depend on fee income evolution
· National Bank of Greece definitive agreement with Bracebridge Capital, LLC for the disposal of a portfolio of NPEs (Project Frontier III)
· National Bank of Greece wants to acquire stake in Bank of Cyprus-Press
· HELLENiQ ENERGY 4Q24 results Review: Results well above Optima and consensus due to insurance compensation of EUR 104m; declared EUR 0.55 final DPS
· ΟΤΕ commences share buyback program today
· Euroconsultants announced a strategic agreement with Xenios Block Chain Group
· NOVAL Property FY24 Results Review
· Premia Properties FY24 Results Review
· Trade Estates Financial Calendar 2025
· Ideal Holdings FY24 Results out
Sector Headlines
Banking System Loans | January 2025
|
(EUR m) |
Nov ’24 |
Dec ’24 |
Jan ’25 |
|
Total credit |
200,526 |
200,258 |
198,776 |
|
General Government |
76,937 |
77,166 |
77,367 |
|
Private sector |
123,589 |
123,092 |
121,409 |
|
Corporate |
83,285 |
83,732 |
82,310 |
|
Sole Proprietors |
4,344 |
4,067 |
3,967 |
|
Household |
35,960 |
35,293 |
35,132 |
|
Monthly net flow |
2,539 |
3,636 |
-1,380 |
|
% y-o-y |
5.0% |
5.3% |
7.1% |
|
Private sector Monthly net flow |
1,931 |
3,048 |
-1,671 |
|
% y-o-y |
10.0% |
8.9% |
10.0% |
source: BoG
Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 198.8bn in January 2025 (+7.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,380m), on the back of negative monthly net flow of the private sector. Loans to the private sector advanced by 10.0% y-o-y to EUR c121.4bn (negative monthly net flow of EUR 1,671m), whilst loans to the general government reached EUR 77.4bn (+2.6% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 290m).
Comment: Net credit expansion turned negative in January due to corporate loans that reached EUR 82.3bn (+15.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,424m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 3.97bn (+0.2% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 102m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR 35.1bn (-0.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 144m). Housing loans came in at EUR 26.4bn (-2.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 122m). Consumer credit reached EUR 8.58bn (+6.0% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 19m). Corporate loans accounted for 67.8% of private sector loans, household loans for 28.9% and loans to sole proprietors for 3.3% respectively.
Banking System Deposits | January 2025
|
(EUR m) |
Nov ’24 |
Dec ’24 |
Jan ’25 |
|
System Deposits |
205,819 |
211,157 |
206,818 |
|
General Government |
7,807 |
7,397 |
7,996 |
|
Private sector |
198,012 |
203,760 |
198,822 |
|
Corporate |
50,227 |
53,409 |
49,470 |
|
Household |
147,785 |
150,351 |
149,352 |
|
Private Sector Monthly net flow |
2,269 |
5,654 |
-4,787 |
|
Private Sector % y-o-y |
5.0% |
4.5% |
4.8% |
|
Private Sector % y-t-d |
1.7% |
4.6% |
-2.4% |
source: BoG
Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 206.8bn (+4.3% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 4,324m) in January 2025. General Government deposits reached EUR 8.0bn (-5.9% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 463m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 198.8bn (+4.8% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 4,787m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR 49.5bn (+10.0% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 3,785m) and household deposits reached EUR 149.3bn (+3.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,002m). Household deposits accounted for 75.1% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 24.9%.
Comment: The monthly drop in private sector deposits (EUR -4,787m) in January is attributed to both corporate (EUR -3,785m) and household deposits (EUR -1,002m). Time deposits recorded a positive monthly net flow by EUR 451m to EUR 37.6bn and accounted for 18.2% of system depos vs. 17.6% in December. Liquidity remained ample, with the LDR at 61.1% vs. 60.4% in December and the commercial surplus narrowed to EUR 77.4bn from 80.7bn in December.
Market Headlines
MSCI standard Greece-no changes
Today after the market close will take place MSCI’s quarterly review, with no changes for the Greek standard index. As a reminder, the MSCI Greece Standard index includes nine Greek companies, namely Piraeus Bank, Eurobank, National Bank, Alpha Bank, OTE, OPAP, JUMBO METLEN and PPC.
ATHEX Indices composition changes
As of today, the shares of Terna Energy will be removed from the indices in which they participate due to low free float. More specifically:
• The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the ATHEX Composite Price Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AS COMPANY S.A.” with a free float weighting of 36% and a capping factor of 1.0.
•The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AKTOR GROUP OF COMPANIES” with a free float weighting of 26% and a capping factor of 1.0.
• The shares of AKTOR GROUP will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “ALUMIL S.A.” with a free float weight of 21% and a capping factor of 1.0.
Company Headlines
Alpha Services and Holdings 4Q24 results beat estimates, 75% of remuneration in share buyback, BP targets feasible
Alpha Services and Holdings released earlier 4Q/FY2024, that beat Optima and consensus estimates on higher than expected fee income and lower than expected loan loss provisions and NPA loss. Reported net profit came in at EUR 164.9m (-1% q-o-q) in 4Q24, well above Optima estimate of EUR 111.7m and well above consensus estimate of EUR 134.0m. Reported net profit for the year reached EUR 654.1 m (+6% y-o-y). Shareholders remuneration stood at EUR 281.0m (43% payout of reported net profit, higher than our estimate of 35%), o/w 75% or EUR 210.8m in share Buyback and the remaining 25% or EUR 70.3m/ DPS EUR 0.03 in cash dividend. Gross dividend yield at 1.6%. The results were burdened by a NPA loss of EUR 19.2m, well below Optima estimate of EUR 51.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 35.0m. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 405.7m (-1% q-o-q) in 4Q24, in line with Optima estimate of EUR 403.5m and consensus estimate of EUR 406.0m. Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 63.2m (+19% q-o-q), 11% below Optima estimate of EUR 71.2m and 3% below consensus estimate of EUR 65.0m.
The business plan envisages reported net profit to reach EUR 850.0m in 2025e, above our estimate of EUR 768.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 787.0m and to exceed EUR 1.0bn in 2027e, well above our estimate of EUR 872.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 833.0m. Reported ROTE is projected at 11% in 2025e and 12% in 2027e. Payout at least 50% of reported net profit over 2025e-2027e against our estimate of 50%. NII is projected to exceed EUR 1.65bn in 2025e, higher than our estimate of EUR ca1.65bn and fee income at EUR 450.0m, above our estimate of EUR 436.0m. Finally, NII is projected to exceed EUR 1.8bn in 2027e, above our estimate of EUR 1.76bn and fee income to surpass EUR 535.0m, above our estimate of EUR 500.0. At first glance, we believe that the targets set are feasible. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.55/share. Following the strong set of results, we’ll adjust our estimates and TP accordingly.
Alpha Services and Holdings acquired AstroBank in Cyprus for at least EUR 205.0m
Event: Alpha Services and Holdings announced earlier that its wholly owned subsidiary, Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd has reached a binding agreement on the key financial and legal terms for the acquisition of substantially the
whole of the banking assets, liabilities, and personnel of AstroBank Public Company in Cyprus for a cash consideration of no less than EUR 205.0m, or at least 0.83x TBV1H24A. The transaction is expected to be completed within 4Q25.
EPS impact: The acquisition is expected to be c.5% accretive to the Group’s EPS and to add c. 60bps to RoTE, post cost and funding synergies.
Capital impact: The transaction is expected to have a limited impact on the Group’s CET1 ratio of around 40bps.
Asset quality impact: The acquisition perimeter will exclude certain of AstroBank’s NPEs, with these being carved out prior to the completion of the transaction, effectively making the acquisition NPE-neutral at Group level.
Strategic rationale: The acquisition aligns with the Group’s strategic objective of strengthening its market presence and financial footprint in core markets. Alpha Bank Cyprus is set to expand significantly, increasing its market share to c.10% in terms of total assets, thereby consolidating its position as the third largest bank in Cyprus. Specifically, Alpha Bank Cyprus is expected to increase its loan portfolio by more than 60%, its deposit base by c.70%, its asset base by c.65%, and, on a fully phased-in synergies basis, double its recurring profitability by exceeding EUR 100.0m in recurring net income going forward.
Alpha Bank Cyprus: According to 9M24 financial statements, Alpha Bank Cyprus generated a net profit of EUR 44.0m (-12% y-o-y) and operated a network of 12 branches. Net loans reached EUR 986.0m and deposits EUR ca3.1bn.
Astro Bank Cyprus: According to 6M24 financial statements, Astro Bank Cyprus generated a net profit of EUR 19.5m (+77% y-o-y) and operated a network of 15 branches. Net loans reached EUR 855.2m, deposits EUR ca2.17bn, tangible equity EUR 248.2m and assets EUR 2.6bn.
View: In our view, the move is positive, since it is a) EPS accretive, b) has a limited capital impact, c) has a neutral-NPE impact, d) strenghtens the deposit base and e) will invigorate the group’s small presence in Cyprus.
Eurobank Holdings | BUY | CP: EUR 2.50 | TP: 3.00
4Q24 results beat our call, BP targets depend on fee income evolution
View: Eurobank delivered a good set of 4Q24 results, on higher than expected fee income and lower than expected OpEx. On the flipside, net profit in Greece was weak as it dropped by 11.8% y-o-y in 2024 due to one-off losses and by 1.6% y-o-y on a normalized basis, while group NPE formation was positive for a fourth consecutive quarter. As far as the BP targets are concerned, we believe that they largely depend on the evolution of fee income, even though Eurobank has a strong track record in wealth management and the firepower to explore M & A opportunities. Recall that group fees including Hellenic Bank climbed by 22.4% y-o-y in 2024 and by 13.5%, without Hellenic.
Shareholders remuneration 2024: Shareholders remuneration reached EUR 674m (50% payout, in line with our estimate of 50%), o/w EUR 386m (57% of remuneration) in cash dividend, corresponding to DPS of EUR 0.1050 and the remaining EUR 288m (43% of remuneration) in share buyback. Gross dividend yield at 4.2%. Recall that the AGM of shareholders will take place on Wednesday 30 April 2025.
Group KPIs 4Q24: Reported net profit came in at EUR 313.0m (-24% q-o-q) in 4Q24, well above Optima estimate of EUR 247.0m. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 677.3m in 4Q24 (-3% q-o-q), broadly in line with Optima estimate of EUR 668.1m. NIM squeezed by 11bps q-o-q to 2.70%. Fee income came in at EUR 215.3m (+28% q-o-q), well above our estimate of EUR 171.0m, primarily due to a one-off lending fee of EUR 26.0m from the Attica Ring Road as well as due to higher than expected fees from wealth management and capital markets. Total revenues reached EUR 890.3m (-0.1% q-o-q) and OpEx rose by 7% y-o-y to EUR 317.2m, 7% below our estimate. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 573.1m (-4% q-o-q) and LLPs rose by 6% q-o-q to EUR 90.5m, on spot with our estimate. Positive organic NPE formation of EUR 47m in Q4 and group NPEs stood at EUR 1.54bn with the NPE ratio stable q-o-q at 2.9%, whilst the NPE cash coverage narrowed to 88.4% vs. 89.9% in 3Q24.
|
(EUR m) |
4Q24A |
3Q24 |
QoQ |
4Q23 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
677.3 |
697.7 |
-3% |
572.8 |
18% |
1% |
|
Fee income |
215.3 |
167.8 |
28% |
140.8 |
53% |
26% |
|
Core income |
892.6 |
865.4 |
3% |
713.5 |
25% |
6% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
(2.3) |
26.0 |
-109% |
55.5 |
-104% |
-206% |
|
Total revenues |
890.3 |
891.4 |
0% |
769.0 |
16% |
6% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(317.2) |
(297.1) |
7% |
(229.1) |
38% |
-7% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
573.1 |
594.3 |
-4% |
539.9 |
6% |
15% |
|
Loan impairments |
(90.5) |
(85.3) |
6% |
(90.0) |
1% |
0% |
|
Reported net profit |
313.0 |
413.6 |
-24% |
159.4 |
96% |
27% |
source: Company, Optima Bank estimates
Group KPIs 2024: Reported net profit reached EUR ca1.45bn (+27% y-o-y) and reported RoaTBV stood at 18.0%. Group NIM eroded by 2bps y-o-y to 2.73%. NII jumped by 15% y-o-y to EUR 2.51bn and fee income by 665.8m (+22% y-o-y). Total revenues reached EUR 3.24bn (+16% y-o-y) and OpEx stood at EUR 1.07bn (+19% y-o-y). PPI came in at EUR 2.17bn (+14% y-o-y) and LLPs at EUR 319.4m (-7% y-o-y). CoR narrowed to 69bps from 85bps in 2023. NPEs formation of EUR 222.0m.
|
(EUR m) |
2024A |
2023 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
2,507.0 |
2,173.7 |
15% |
|
Fee income |
665.8 |
543.8 |
22% |
|
Core income |
3,172.8 |
2,717.5 |
17% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
69.2 |
85.9 |
-19% |
|
Total revenues |
3,242.0 |
2,803.4 |
16% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(1,071.4) |
(901.9) |
19% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
2,170.6 |
1,901.6 |
14% |
|
Loan impairments |
(319.4) |
(344.7) |
-7% |
|
Reported net profit |
1,447.8 |
1,139.4 |
27% |
source: Company
Greece KPIs 2024: Reported net profit slipped by 11.8% y-o-y to EUR 740.7m and accounted for 51.2% of group’s reported net profit. The drop is attributed to one-off losses of EUR 34.7m. Normalized net profit also fell by 1.6% y-o-y. NII reached EUR 1.48bn (-2.2% y-o-y) and NIM squeezed by 4bps y-o-y to 2.54%. Fee income rose by 14.2% y-o-y to EUR 481.2m and revenues fell by 2.2% y-o-y to EUR 1.98bn. On the cost side, OpEx rose by 2.9% y-o-y and LLPs fell by 10.1% y-o-y.
International operations KPIs 2024: Reported net profit came in at EUR 707.1m (+136.2% y-o-y) primarily due to the consolidation of Hellenic Bank in Cyprus. International operations accounted for 48.8% of group’s reported net profit. NII was shaped at EUR 1.02bn (+55.7% y-o-y) and NIM squeezed by 17bps y-o-y to 3.08%. Fee income climbed by 50.7% y-o-y to EUR 184.6m and revenues by 62.0% y-o-y to EUR 1.26bn. On the cost side, OpEx jumped by 58.6% y-o-y and LLPs rose by 6.6% y-o-y.
Balance Sheet: NCE reached EUR 3.9bn in 2024 and EUR 1.8bn in 4Q24. Group gross loans accelerated to EUR 52.3bn in 4Q24 from EUR 50.4bn in 3Q24. Gross loans in Greece rose to EUR 34.7bn in 4Q24 vs. EUR 33.3bn in 3Q24, in Bulgaria to EUR 7.8bn from EUR 7.4bn in 3Q24 and in Cyprus to EUR 8.8bn in 4Q24 from EUR 8.7bn in 3Q24. On the other side, group deposits increased by EUR 4.0bn q-o-q to EUR 78.6bn, with time deposits at EUR 28.6bn or 36.4% of group depos. Deposits in Greece increased by EUR 2.3bn q-o-q and in international operations by EUR ca1.7bn. Group assets stood at EUR 101.1bn.
Capital: FL CET1 stood at 15.7% post payout accrual and shaped at EUR 7.71bn and RWAs at EUR 49.1bn respectively. FL CAD also stood at 18.5%. Tangible book value stood at EUR 8.48bn or EUR 2.31/share, including EUR 136m deduction from HB 37.5% additional stake acquisition, which has no P&L impact.
Hellenic Bank: Eurobank aims to squeeze-out & delist Hellenic in 2Q25 in order to merge with Eurobank Cyprus. The operational merger will be completed over the next 2 years. Management has guided for an envelope of synergies of EUR 120m over 2025e-2027e, o/w 40% or EUR 48.0m will be realized in 2025e.
BUSINESS PLAN 2025e-2027e
Focus on wealth management and insurance income
P & L Targets: Eurobank goals Core Operating Profit (Core PPI-LLPs) to shape at EUR 1.70bn in 2025, 5% above our estimate of EUR 1.62bn, on the back of higher fee income and to gradually accelerate to EUR 1.9bn in 2027e. NII is projected to be flattish in 2025, in line with our estimate and to increase to EUR 2.7bn in 2027e. Fee income is expected to be the spearhead of growth and to accelerate to EUR 740.0m (+11% y-o-y) in 2025 and to EUR 850.0m in 2027e. It targets fees from wealth management & insurance CAGR of 30% over 2025e-2027e. Recall that the completion of the acquisition of CNP in Cyprus will be completed next week.
|
P & L TARGETS (EUR m) |
2024 |
2025e |
YoY |
vs Optima |
2027e |
|
Net Interest Income |
2,507.0 |
2,500.0 |
0% |
-1% |
2,700.0 |
|
Fee income |
665.8 |
740.0 |
11% |
13% |
850.0 |
|
Core income |
3,172.8 |
3,240.0 |
2% |
2% |
3,550.0 |
|
OpEx |
(1,071.4) |
(1,230.0) |
15% |
-1% |
(1,330.0) |
|
Core Operating Profit* |
1,781.9 |
1,700.0 |
-5% |
5% |
1,900.0 |
source: Company, Optima Bank estimates, *COP=Core PPI-LLPs
|
Metrics |
2024 |
2025e |
Optima 25e |
2027e |
|
Payout (%) |
50% |
at least 50% |
50% |
at least 50% |
|
Adj. RoTBV (%) |
18.5% |
15.0% |
14.8% |
15.0% |
|
TBVPS |
2.31 |
2.55 |
2.44 |
3.20 |
|
FL CET1 (%) |
15.7% |
15.8% |
15.9% |
16.0% |
|
CoR (%) |
0.69% |
0.60% |
0.62% |
0.50% |
|
NPE ratio (%) |
2.9% |
2.8% |
3.0% |
2.5% |
|
NPE coverage (%) |
88.4% |
75.0% |
77.9% |
75.0% |
source: Company
NII sensitivity: EUR 40m for every 25bps change in 3M Euribor.
Payout: Payout is expected to be at least 50% over 2025e-2027e and management has guided for cumulative payouts of more than EUR 2.0bn in the same period.
Group Loans: Management expects group loans to rise by 7.5% per annum over 2025e-2027e and cumulative NCE to stand at EUR 11.2bn in the same period.
Group Deposits: Management targets CAGR of 3.0% over 2025e-2027e.
Capital: FL CET1 is expected to widen to 15.8% in 2025e and 16.0% in 2027e, assuming 50% payout, in line with our estimate. According to management, organic capital generation maintains strategic optionality of EUR >1.5bn for potential inorganic growth opportunities in banking, insurance and asset management in the three core markets (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria) plus Luxembourg.
CC HIGHLIGHTS
§ Management did not exclude the possibility the payout to be slightly higher than 50% but won’t accelerate to 70% since it examines M & A opportunities in banking, insurance and wealth management in the three core markets (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria) plus Luxembourg. Similar distribution mix with 2024.
§ Treasury shares will be cancelled.
§ They expect the approval of SSM and the AGM on 30 April in order to distribute the cash dividend in May.
§ FL Basel IV impact at 60bps.
§ They will open a repo office in Mumbai in the next month and consider a repo office in Abu Dhabi.
§ The use of Danish Compromise is not very clear for Greek banks. If it can be applied, they would consider it seriously for a potential acquisition in the sector.
National Bank of Greece definitive agreement with Bracebridge Capital, LLC for the disposal of a portfolio of NPEs (Project Frontier III)
National Bank of Greece announced that it entered into a definitive agreement with Bracebridge Capital, LLC for the sale of 95% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes of a NPE portfolio with a total gross book value of EUR ca. 700.0m (Project Frontier III). NBG will retain 100% of the Senior notes, utilizing the provisions of the Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme and 5% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes. The total proceeds for NBG mainly reflect the Senior notes and the consideration for the Mezzanine and Junior notes, corresponding to c.63% of the total gross book value of the Frontier ΙII Portfolio or EUR ca441.0m. The transaction is expected to be capital accretive and to be completed within Q225. Following the completion of the transaction, doValue Greece will undertake the servicing of the Frontier III Portfolio.
National Bank of Greece wants to acquire stake in Bank of Cyprus-Press
Reportedly (mononews), National Bank of Greece wants to acquire a stake in Bank of Cyprus. According to ATHEX official data, Lamesa Investments holds a 9.33% stake, Senvest Management a 8.72% stake, Car Val Investors a 5.89% stake and EBRD a 5.05% stake respectively. We estimate that NBG will have an excess capital of EUR ca1.9bn in 2025e and EUR 2.3bn in 2026e and therefore we anticipate a move in the M & A front in the region.
HELLENiQ ENERGY || Neutral | Target Price: EUR 8.30 | CP: EUR 7.75
4Q24 results Review: Results well above Optima and consensus due to insurance compensation of EUR 104m; declared EUR 0.55 final DPS
Facts: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 4Q24 “adjusted” group EBITDA up by 1.5% YoY to EUR 273m despite weaker y-o-y refining environment, driven by the Insurance compensation settlement for older damages in the refineries of EUR 104m in 4Q24 (beating significantly consensus and our estimate), while “adjusted” net income shaped at EUR 117m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 111m in 4Q23, also well above our call and consensus. Accounting for inventory and one-off losses of EUR 84m in 4Q24 vs. inventory and one-off losses of EUR 122m in 4Q23, HELLENiQ ENERGY reported IFRS EBITDA of EUR 189m, up by 29% YoY and IFRS net profits of EUR 48m (including the EUR 173m solidarity tax) compared to net profits of EUR 15 in 4Q23. HELLENiQ ENERGY declared a final DPS of EUR 0.55, which includes the proceeds from the DEPA transaction (DY: 7.1%, ex-date: 2 July).
4Q/FY24e Group Key P&L Results
|
EUR m |
4Q23 |
4Q24 |
YoY |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Actual vs. Conensus |
FY23 |
FY24 |
YoY |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
147 |
189 |
29% |
136 |
39% |
|
|
1053 |
811 |
-23% |
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
269 |
273 |
1% |
135 |
102.8% |
181 |
51% |
1237 |
1026 |
-17% |
|
refining |
236 |
232 |
-2% |
111 |
108.8% |
|
|
1043 |
795 |
-24% |
|
marketing |
13 |
14 |
8% |
19 |
-24.7% |
|
|
111 |
124 |
12% |
|
petchems |
8 |
2 |
-75% |
5 |
-60.0% |
|
|
43 |
54 |
26% |
|
RES/other |
12 |
26 |
117% |
8 |
209.5% |
|
|
40 |
53 |
33% |
|
IFRS Net Income*, ** |
15 |
48 |
220% |
25 |
95.9% |
|
|
478 |
60 |
-87% |
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
111 |
117 |
5% |
27 |
334.9% |
54 |
117% |
606 |
401 |
-34% |
Source: Optima Bank, the Company
* Consensus estimates are compiled based on the contribution from 13 brokerage firms
Domestic refining and trading division: HELLENiQ ENERGY’s realized blended margin (incl. propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems) in 4Q24 rose to USD 11.5/bl from USD 10.9/bbl in 3Q24 and well below the USD 16.1/bbl in 4Q23, well outperforming the USD 5.6/bbl benchmark margin. The refinery utilization rate in 4Q24 was at historic high of 114% vs. 107% a year ago. Sales volume was consequently up by 4% YoY to 4.13m tons, driven by an 4.5% YoY rise in exports sales to 2,271 tons. All in, 4Q24 “adjusted” EBITDA stood at EUR 232m (vs. EUR 236m a year ago), benefited by the EUR 104m insurance compensation.
Marketing: Domestic demand in 4Q24 rose by 4% YoY driven by higher by 11% higher Heating Gasoil, while Diesel and Gasoline demand was also up by 3%. Jet fuel demand was also up by 7% YoY, while bunkering demand was up down 76% YoY. However, domestic EBITDA was unchanged y-o-y at EUR -2m, while international marketing EBITDA was up by 9% YoY to EUR 15m, also aided by the network expansion by 6 petrol stations.
Petrochemicals: Bottoming PP margins led to lower petchems contribution, with Adj. EBITDA down by 75% YoY at EUR 2m in 4Q24.
Power & gas (equity consolidation): Elpedison’s EBITDA contribution in 4Q24 was negative at EUR 5m from EUR 3m loss in 4Q23 driven by fewer opportunities in natural gas wholesale and weak supply contribution.
RES: segmental profitability in 4Q24 shaped at EUR 11m (from EUR 8m in 4Q23), with the installed capacity reaching 494MW by 4Q24-end (from 356MW a year ago).
FCF & Net debt: FCF in 2024 was weaker y-o-y at EUR 295m from FCF of EUR 726m in 2023 on lower operating profitability and increased by EUR 166m investing outflows of EUR 405m. After paying EUR 277m for dividends and EUR 127m for interest expenses, group net debt (excluding leasing liabilities) rose marginally by 165m y-t-d in 2024 to EUR 1.79bn.
Conference call comments: a) Elefsina turnaround to commence next month, and in Aspropyrgos in 2025-end, b) RES capacity currently at 494MW, expects to meet the 1GW RES milestone in 2026, 2GW by 2030, c) refining environment is improved in February, expects a better environment in 2025 compared to 2024, d) test drilling investment decision to be taken in 3Q25.
ΟΤΕ commences share buyback program today
OTE announced that it commences its share buyback program today. The period of execution will run until 21/01/2026 at the latest, and its size is targeted at approximately EUR 153.0m. Own shares will be purchased exclusively for cancellation following a Shareholders’ General Meeting resolution and under the terms of the legal and regulatory framework in force. It is noted that the company currently holds 7,174,751 own shares, acquired in the context of implementation of 2024 Share Buy Back Program, which it intends to cancel following the approval of the next Shareholders General Meeting.
Euroconsultants announced a strategic agreement with Xenios Block Chain Group
The company announced a strategic agreement with XBG which specializes in cybersecurity, blockchain and digital reform. XBG has a leading presence in cutting-edge technologies and it’s the advisor of Hellenic Capital Market Commission.
NOVAL Property FY24 Results Review
Noval Property released a solid set of FY24 Financial Results with Rental income up by 14% y-o-y to EUR 33.4m driven by new tenant leases and rental adjustments of more favorable terms to existing tenants, EBITDA adj (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) up by 16% to EUR 20.6m, Net profit (including revaluation gains) of EUR 46.8m, vs. EUR 63.7m a year ago and FFO at EUR 10.8m vs. EUR 6.3m in FY23. Additionally, NAV was up by 21% y-o-y to EUR 519.1m, while adjusting for shares outstanding NAV/share shaped at EUR 4.11/share implying a 39% discount compared to yesterday’s stock price. Management will propose a dividend of EUR 0.043/share up by 72% y-o-y. (DY: 1.7%).
Premia Properties FY24 Results Review
Premia Properties released a strong set of results with total revenues up by 17.9% y-o-y to EUR 22.5m, EBITDA adj. (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) up by 17.5% to EUR 14.1m, net profit (including revaluation gains) of EUR 39.9m, vs. EUR 7.2m a year ago and FFO at EUR 4.1m vs. EUR 5.2m in FY23. Additionally, NAV was up by 33.8% y-o-y to EUR 197m, while adjusting for shares outstanding NAV/share shaped at EUR 2.07/share implying a 38.6% discount compared to yesterday’s stock price.
Trade Estates Financial Calendar 2025
Trade Estates will report FY24 results on Wednesday 2 April 2025 with the conference call scheduled for the next day. The AGM of the company is set for Friday 13 June 2025 and the dividend ex-date is set for Thursday 19 June.
Ideal Holdings FY24 Results out
Ideal Holdings delivered an exceptionally high set of results. Group revenues came in at EUR 374.2m (+106% y-o-y), aided by the organic growth of ICT companies, the contribution of the newly acquired Bluesream Solutions and the addition of Attica Department Stores. EBITDA of the group came in at EUR 50m (+113% y-o-y) and EBT came in at EUR 14.9m up by 70% y-o-y, while net profit came in at EUR 92.9m (+446% y-o-y), including one off of EUR 74.6m from the transfer of its industrial segment to Guala Closures. Finally, the company has a net cash position of EUR 28.8m compared to a net debt of EUR 73.3m in FY23. Management stated that the acquisition of BARBA STATHIS is expected to be completed in 2Q25, for a total consideration of EUR 130m.
Calendar of Events
Macros
28/02/25 | Producer Price Index in Industry JAN & Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC
07/03/25 | DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
28/02/25 | MSCI rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
4Q/FY24 Results Release
28/02/25 | National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings (08:00 GR time)
04/03/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt)
05/03/25 | Cenergy Holdings
06/03/25 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
23/04/25 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY
03/07/25 | OTE
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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