Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 1.77% at 1,678.70 units (FTSE Large Cap: -1.93%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.85%, Banks Index: -3.70%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 219.6m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 133.0m. We expect the risk-off sentiment to continue weighing on ATHEX today.
Today’s Headlines
· BoG Governor on US tariffs
· Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – March 2025
· Alpha Services and Holdings next acquisition in Cyprus?-Press
· PPC presents its energy transition plan in western Macedonia
· Motor Oil FY24 Conference Call Highlights
· Dimand FY24 results out
· Sarantis AGM set for 28 April
Macro Headlines
BoG Governor on US tariffs
The Governor of Bank of Greece stated that US tariffs will negatively impact the EU economy but won’t stop the downward trend in inflation. Even though Greece is less dependent on US (4.8% of total exports), a slowdown in global trade may reduce demand for Greek products and limit the growth rate. Recall that the Governor cited in an interview on 22 January that a 10% tax on EU products would shrink the EU GDP by 0.5%-1.0% over a two-year horizon.
Sector Headlines
Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – March 2025
Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share rose to 49.9% in March 2025 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 105.91/MWh, down by EUR 48.2/MWh m-o-m and up by EUR 38.4/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 4,708/GWh, up by 3.5% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 18.66% (19.41% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 12.01%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 5.97% and MOH’s NRG with 4.37%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in March 2025 was down by 1.8% m-o-m at 49.9%, just below the EU-mandated 50% mark. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 52% of total (vs. 34% in February), Natural Gas follows with 34% (vs. 50% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 2% (3%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 0% (5%) and 2% (2%) respectively and finally, Imports 10% (10%).
Company Headlines
Alpha Services and Holdings next acquisition in Cyprus?-Press
Unconfirmed press reports (powergame) cited that Alpha Services and Holdings plans to acquire an insurance company in Cyprus. Recall that Alpha announced on 28 February the acquisition of AstroBank Public Company in Cyprus for a cash consideration of at least EUR 205.0m. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.75/share, a 26% upside potential.
PPC presents its energy transition plan in western Macedonia
PPC presented yesterday a EUR 5.75bn investment plan in its lignite areas in western Macedonia, after the lignite phase out in 2026e. As a reminder, during the FY24 conference call last week, the management presented key aspects of its plan, which leverages on the ownership of land and the grid network to develop natural gas plant, data centers and pump and storage infrastructure. In more detail:
a) Renewables: 2.130MW capacity,
b) Lignite plants: Ptolemaida V lignite plant to phase out in 2026e, and to be turned to a highly efficient, Hydrogen ready OCGT of 350MW by 2027 and to a CCGT of 50MW capacity at a later stage,
c) Data centers: sees opportunities in the data center business, has the option (subject to the interest by international investors) to develop 300MW in two years in the lignite areas and 1.000MW capacity at a later stage,
d) Storage and Batteries: targets to construct two pump and storage stations in the lignite areas of Ptolemaida of 560MW combined capacity and Batteries of 300MW capacity.
Motor Oil FY24 Conference Call Highlights
During the FY24 Results CC, the management said that:
a) Guides for a jump in Group capex to EUR 560m, driven by RES (c. 50% of total)
b) Average cost of debt at 3.60% in 2024-end from 4.4% in 2023
c) Increased tax rate in 4Q24 was due to the collection of insurance compensation
d) Refining margins volatile in 1Q25, improved so far in April, carefully optimistic for 2Q25e and 3Q25e
e) Expects to reach 1.6GW RES capacity by 2027e and RES EBITDA of EUR 200m by that year.
Dimand FY24 results out
Dimand released a strong set of results with total revenues up by 202% y-o-y to EUR 28.4m, EBITDA up by 197% to EUR 58.9m and net profit of EUR 37.0m, vs. EUR 13.2m a year ago (up by 197%). Additionally, NAV was up by 28.8% y-o-y to EUR 180.3m, NAV/share at EUR 9.64, at a 12.2% discount to yesterday’s closing price. Finally, the company strengthened its capital structure with cash and cash equivalents of the group up by 208% y-o-y, to EUR 38.3m and net debt down to EUR 33.6m vs. EUR 67.0m in FY23, (-49.8% y-o-y), while the GDV shaped at EUR 1,023.7m down from c.1,294.9m in FY23.
Sarantis AGM set for 28 April
The company announced that it will hold its Annual General Meeting on Monday 28 April to approve among others the dividend distribution of EUR 0.299/share (DY: 2.2%).
Calendar of Events
Macros
07/04/25 | Trade Balance FEB (ELSTAT)
10/04/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI MAR (ELSTAT), Industrial Production Index FEB (ELSTAT)
11/04/25 | Import Price Index in Industry FEB (ELSTAT) & Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises FEB (ELSTAT)
18/04/25 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign rating review
Market
08/04/25 | FTSE Russell Equity Country Classification Interim Review Announcement (after the US market close)
4Q/FY24 Results Release
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/25 | Quest Holdings (Aft-mkt), Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc, Sunrise Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt)
11/04/25 | Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Alpha Trust Holdings (Bef-mkt)
15/04/25 | KRI-KRI (Aft-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt), Thessaloniki Port (Aft-mkt)
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil (Aft-mkt)
29/04/25 | Alpha Real Estate (Aft-mkt)
30/04/25 | EYDAP (Bef-mkt), Ble Kedros (Aft-mkt), Motodynamics, Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc
1Q:25 Results Release
24/04/25 | METLEN (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
30/04/25 | Coca Cola HBC (trading update)
06/05/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Sarantis (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
08/05/25 | National Bank of Greece, Eurobank Holdings, Titan Cement
09/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (Bef-mkt)
12/05/25 | Optima bank, Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
15/05/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Austriacard (Aft-mkt)
20/05/25 | Trade Estates (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
22/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
23/05/25 | Premia Properties (trading update)
26/05/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings
28/05/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
05/06/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM), Autohellas (AGM), KRI-KRI (EGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM), Alpha Trust Andromeda (AGM), Biokarpet (EGM)
16/04/25 | PPC (EGM)
24/04/25 | Papoutsanis (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM), Aegean Airlines (AGM), Attica Holdings (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
22/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (AGM), Alpha Trust Holdings (AGM)
23/05/25 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
29/05/25 | Intralot (AGM), Profile Systems (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)
13/06/25 | Trade Estates (AGM)
16/06/25 | Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
18/06/25 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM), Sunrise Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
02/04/25 | Trastor REIC (EUR 0.03)
10/04/25 | Autohellas (EUR 0.85)
23/04/25 | Bank of Greece (EUR 0.672), Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
28/04/25 | Papoutsanis (remaining EUR 0.03)
02/05/25 | Sarantis (EUR 0.299174)
05/05/25 | Eurobank Holdings (EUR 0.105)
07/05/25 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.80)
19/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.32)
20/05/25 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.80)
23/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (EUR 0.03)
27/05/25 | Alpha Trust Holdings
03/06/25 | National Bank of Greece, Noval Property (EUR 0.043)
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
19/06/25 | Trade Estates (remaining EUR 0.052)
23/06/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.29), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.30)
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14)
25/06/25 | Motor Oil
26/06/25 | ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.09)
30/06/25 | Titan Cement (EUR 3.00)
01/07/25 | Profile Systems (EUR 0.64657), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (EUR 0.11)
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (remaining EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC (EUR 0.40)
Ex-Capital Return
26/05/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.298/share)
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
02/04/25 | Profile Software (09:30 GR time)
03/04/25 | Trade Estates REIC (09:30 GR time)
07/04/25 | DIMAND (09:30 GR time)
08/04/25 | Premia Properties (09:30 GR time)
09/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings (09:30 GR time)
11/04/25 | Motor Oil (09:30 GR time)
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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