Greek Market Watch: Budget execution, Banks, METLEN, Piraeus Financial Holdings, ADMIE Holding, Alpha Holdings, Galaxy Cosmos Mezz

We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today, eyeing the international markets.

Market Comment

ATHEX headed south yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.33% at 1,464.48 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.44%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.36%, Banks Index: -0.97%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 117.4m, up from Friday’s EUR 95.9m.  

Today’s Headlines

·         Central government budget execution January-November 2024 (preliminary)

·         Cost of new measures for Greek banks at EUR 350.0m for 2025-MinFin

·         METLEN-Update on Strategic Review and Proposed London Listing

·         Piraeus Financial Holdings CAD ratio requirement reduced to 14.48% for 2025

·         ADMIE Holding 9M24 results out

·         Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback

·         Schooner Capital holds 3.7% stake in Galaxy Cosmos Mezz 

Macro Headlines 

Central government budget execution January-November 2024 (preliminary)

Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-November 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 4,736m surplus vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 2,293m (based on the 2025 Budget introductory report) and an EUR 1,032 deficit in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 12,012m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 9,912m and an EUR 5,826m surplus in the same period in 2023.

Comment: difference in comparison to the target derives mainly from the collection of an amount of EUR 206m during October 2024 from the extraordinary levy on electricity suppliers and from the time differentiation of expenditure for military procurement and transfers to SSFs (EUR 432m and EUR 788m, respectively), which do not affect the outcome in fiscal terms. With the exception of the above amounts, the overperformance in the State Budget Primary Balance for the period of January–October is EUR 106m. 

Sector Headlines 

Cost of new measures for Greek banks at EUR 350.0m for 2025-MinFin

The Finance Minister specified yesterday the cost of the new measures for Greek banks. In more detail, the cost for banks from zero fees on bills through web-mobile banking is estimated at EUR 35.0m and from the cap on money transfers up to EUR 5,000 at EUR 95.0m.

• Hence, the total cost for all banks is estimated at EUR 150.0m. On top of that, the cost from the doubling of the property tax from 2026 is estimated between EUR 10.0m-20.0m per annum.

Recall that the four systemic banks will also pay a one-off contribution of EUR 100.0m for the reconstruction of old schools or the building of new ones as well as another EUR 100.0m for the establishment of the property, sale and lease back agency. According to the MinFin, the total cost is estimated at EUR 350.0m for 2025.  

Company Headlines 

METLEN-Update on Strategic Review and Proposed London Listing

METLEN (former MYTILINEOS), in context with the as of 25 April publicly expressed intention to list its shares in the London Stock Exchange, announced that it has concluded this aspect of its strategic review, and has taken the first step in the regulatory process for the London Listing through the filing of a draft listing prospectus with the UK Financial Conduct Authority for their review.

• It is intended that METLEN Limited would become the ultimate parent company of the METLEN group, in line with similar precedents in the Greek market.

The Company’s Chairman & CEO commented on his personal Linked in account: “our long-standing presence in the United Kingdom and other international markets will be further amplified, and I believe that our listing on the London Stock Exchange will benefit the company and its shareholders”.

Optima view: METLEN, following its initial expression of intention to become the Greek representative in London’s FTSE 100 index, remains committed to its ambitious target, which in our view will provide further support to the stock.

According to our estimates, after reviewing the LONDON FTSE 100 index qualification criteria, METLEN currently ranks 95th among LSE’s constituents in total market cap terms, and needs a price/share of EUR >40 to safely fulfill the criteria during the subsequent quarterly evaluation period after its formal application

• (a company will be inserted in LONDON’s FTSE 100 index at the periodic review if it rises above the 90th position or above in average full market capitalization terms of all LONDON 100 and 250 constituents during the monthly evaluation t the quarterly reviews in September, December and March)

Finally, it is reminded that regardless of the outcome of this strategic review, METLEN has also declared its will  to also retain a listing on the Athens Exchange, where has been listed since 1995. 

Piraeus Financial Holdings CAD ratio requirement reduced to 14.48% for 2025

Piraeus announced that according to the ECB, the Pillar 2 capital requirement is set at 2.90% for 2025 from 3.00% currently and as a result the total capital ratio requirement is reduced to 14.48% from 14.58% currently. Piraeus’ CET1 ratio stood at 14.67% and CAD ratio at 19.87% in 9M24, well above ECB requirements. 

ADMIE Holding 9M24 results out

ADMIE Holding (IPTO) announced revenues of EUR 356.4 (+21.7% y-o-y), adjusted EBITDA of EUR 264.8m (+23.6% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 123.6m (+33.2% y-o-y) for 9M24. Group net debt shaped at EUR 936.7m, down by EUR 13.8m y-t-d, despite heavy capex of EUR 398.9m (cash and cash equivalents EUR 192.6m). Consequently, ADMIE Holding’s (listed company, with a 51% stake in IPTO) Revenue and Net profit for 9M24 rose to EUR 61.2m and EUR 60.5m, up 31.3% and 31.5% YoY respectively. Finally, IPTO S.A. said the Crete – Attica interconnection is proceeding at an intensive pace, nearing completion, while the connection of the Cyclades is in the fourth and final phase, aiming to be completed in 1H26. In other related news, IPTO and Servefarm signed an agreement to establish a joint venture named Gemini, which will develop hyperscale-ready Data Centers in Greece of 130MW capacity. 

Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback

Alpha announced that during the period 9.12.2024 – 13.12.2024 it purchased 1,251,049 own Shares, with an average price of EUR 1.6313 per share and a total cost of EUR 2,040,800.96. Following the above purchases, Alpha holds 30,298,369 own shares, representing 1.29% of shares o/s. Recall that the AGM approved a share buyback programme of up to 3.0% of the paid in share capital or up to 70,000,000 own shares. 

Schooner Capital holds 3.7% stake in Galaxy Cosmos Mezz

Galaxy Cosmos Mezz plc announced that Schooner Capital LLC held on 13 December 86.941.164 common shares, corresponding to a 3.7% stake.  

Calendar of Events

Macros

20/12/24 | Current Account Balance OCT (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry OCT (ELSTAT)

27/12/24 | Building Activity SEP (ELSTAT)

30/12/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry NOV (ELSTAT)

31/12/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade OCT (ELSTAT)

Market

20/12/24 | ATHEX Semi-Annual Index Review (changes effective after market close)

EGM / AGM

19/12/24 | Technical Olympic (EGM)

24/12/24 | MED (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

19/12/24 | AS Company (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.052631590)

23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)

20/01/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (interim dividend EUR 0.20)

23/01/25 | Thrace Plastics (interim dividend EUR 0.0685848289)