Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.24% at 1,600.17 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.23%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.30%, Banks Index: +0.04%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 143.7m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 366.3m. We expect the market to follow the international markets today.
Today’s Headlines
· Total building activity increased in November
· ATHEX Indices composition changes
· Energy Regulator to approve a 7.2% WACC for PPC’s HEDNO for 2025-28e
· Fitch affirms ‘BB-‘ Rating on PPC
· OTE 4Q/FY24 Results Review | Romania is the key for re-rating
· Eurobank Holdings Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | A soft quarter, focus on new BP and distribution policy
· Alpha Services and Holdings Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | The end of one-offs cycle, all eyes on BP
· National Bank of Greece Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | NBG to deliver FY target despite one-offs
· HELLENiQ ENERGY 4Q/FY24e preview | Soft quarter, driven by margin correction, in a Solid year; We expect Final DPS of EUR 0.40
Macro Headlines
Total building activity increased in November
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 6.4% y-o-y in November 2024. In surface and volume terms, building activity decreased by 5.7% and by 20.2% y-o-y respectively. In the December 2023- November 2024 period, Greek building activity grew by 13.5% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 14.7% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 8.6% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Market Headlines
ATHEX Indices composition changes
The Athens Stock Exchange announced that effective from 28 February, the shares of Terna Energy will be removed from the indices in which they participate due to low free float. More specifically:
• The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the ATHEX Composite Price Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AS COMPANY S.A.” with a free float weighting of 36% and a capping factor of 1.0.
•The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AKTOR GROUP OF COMPANIES” with a free float weighting of 26% and a capping factor of 1.0.
• The shares of AKTOR GROUP will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “ALUMIL S.A.” with a free float weight of 21% and a capping factor of 1.0.
Company Headlines
Energy Regulator to approve a 7.2% WACC for PPC’s HEDNO for 2025-28e
According to Energypress.gr, the energy regulator will most probably approve a 7.2% WACC for PPC’s distribution operator, HEDNO over the new regulatory period 2025-28e, lower than our estimate of 7.9%and also what the company requests, which is an increase to 8.2% from 7.66% in 2021-24.
Fitch affirms ‘BB-‘ Rating on PPC
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Public Power Corporation Long-Term Issuer Default Rating and senior unsecured rating at ‘BB-‘, with a stable outlook. The affirmation reflects PPC’s gradual shift to a more balanced integrated model of generation and supply, increased low-cost renewables production, the highly flexible nature of its hydro and thermal capacity, expanding regulated distribution, and the unwinding of state receivables. It also factors in its expectation of consistently negative free cash flow, due to large capex and a still developing regulatory framework, with a commitment to the financial target of 3.0x-3.5x Net debt/adjusted EBITDA Finally, Fitch forecasts EBITDA growth to EUR 2.4bn by 2027 from EUR 1.8bn in 2024, driven by integrated margin expansion and, to a lesser extent, growth in regulated distribution driven by large investments.
OTE | BUY | CP: EUR 14.50 | TP: EUR 16.50
4Q24/FY24 Results Review | Romania is the key for re-rating
Optima View
We believe that the catalyst for 2025 will be the disposal of Telekom Romania Mobile that would allow the company to increase its FCF generation and consequently its remuneration to shareholders. Recall that management will propose to the AGM the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.7216/share, implying a gross div. yield of 4.9%. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 16.50/share.
CC Highlights
Management cited earlier the following:
§ Negotiations with Digi and Vodafone Romania about the disposal of Telekom Romania Mobile are proceeding as planned and could be finalized at the end of 1H25.
§ Management will adjust the remuneration policy if they manage to dispose TRM. They consider either to increase the proposed dividend payout or to distribute an extra dividend.
§ Telekom Romania Mobile burned FCF of EUR 70.0m in 2024.
2025 Guidance
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
OTE Group anticipates generating approximately EUR 460.0m Free Cash Flow (FCF) in 2025, incorporating estimated cash flow requirements in TELEKOM ROMANIA MOBILE (TKRM) for the full year, in case of no disposal. The guidance is below our estimate of EUR 476.6m, which however does not incorporate any requirements for TRM.
CapEx
The Group projects CAPEX of EUR 610m- EUR 620m in 2025, focusing on the expansion of its Fiber to the Home (FTTH) infrastructure, in line with our estimate.
Adj. EBITDA (AL)
OTE expects EBITDA growth in Greece to reach almost 2%, fueled by solid performance across key services, including mobile, broadband, and TV alongside effective cost management in several areas, in line with our estimate.
4Q24/FY2024 results
§ Cons. revenues came in at EUR 905.3 (-2.7% y-o-y) in 4Q24, 2% below our estimate of EUR 923.0m.
Group revenues for the year reached EUR 3.59bn (+3.5% y-o-y).
§ Adj. EBITDA after leases came in at EUR 344.5m (+1% y-o-y) in 4Q24, on spot with our estimate of EUR 344.6m.
Adj. EBITDA AL for the year reached EUR ca1.35bn (+0.4% y-o-y).
§ Net profit came in at EUR 64.5m (-52% y-o-y), 51% below our estimate of EUR 130.3m, burdened by an impairment loss of EUR 89.8m as a result of the impairment test performed for Telekom Romania Mobile.
Net profit for the year reached EUR 478.8m (-9.9% y-o-y).
§ FCF AL came in at EUR 444.2m (-11.4%), above guidance of EUR 435.0m. CapEX stood at EUR 599.7m, in the low range of guidance (EUR 600.0m-EUR 610.0m).
§ Net Debt increased by EUR 8.6m y-o-y to EUR 643.4m.
§ Shareholders payout reached EUR 451.0m (98% payout of FCF25e of EUR 460.0m), o/w EUR 298.0m in cash dividend and EUR 153.0m in share buyback.
§ Management will propose to the AGM the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.7216/share, in line with our estimate of EUR 0.72/share. Gross div. yield at 4.9%.
|
KPIs (EUR m) |
4Q24 |
4Q23 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
|
2024 |
2023 |
YoY |
|
|
||||||||
|
Greece |
843.1 |
854.8 |
-1.4% |
-1.6% |
|
3,334.0 |
3,189.4 |
4.5% |
|
Romania |
64.0 |
77.5 |
-17.4% |
-6.6% |
|
263.3 |
286.9 |
-8.2% |
|
Group revenues |
905.3 |
930.2 |
-2.7% |
-1.9% |
|
3,590.8 |
3,468.9 |
3.5% |
|
Greece |
343.1 |
337.0 |
1.8% |
0.3% |
|
1,346.2 |
1,325.5 |
1.6% |
|
Romania |
1.4 |
4.1 |
-65.9% |
-47.4% |
|
1.1 |
17.0 |
-93.5% |
|
Group EBITDA AL |
344.5 |
341.1 |
1.0% |
0.0% |
|
1,347.3 |
1,342.5 |
0.4% |
|
mgn (%) |
38.1% |
36.7% |
– |
– |
|
37.5% |
38.7% |
– |
|
Group net profit |
64.5 |
134.5 |
-52.0% |
-50.5% |
|
478.8 |
531.7 |
-9.9% |
source: Company, Optima Bank Research
Eurobank Holdings | BUY | CP: 2.5060, TP: EUR 3.00
Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | A soft quarter, focus on new BP and distribution policy
Optima view | Eurobank Holdings is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results today, post-market close and a conference call will follow at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Overall, we expect a soft quarter on the back of lower NII, non-core revenues, higher OpEx, one-off costs (school contribution) and lower share of associates, since Eurobank has consolidated Hellenic from 3Q24.
Balance sheet dynamics are expected to be in line with system trends in Greece, (i.e. higher performing loans and deposits) and asset quality dynamics to remain positive. We believe that investors will focus on the new business plan targets and the distribution policy.
The stock is trading 1.0x P/TBV25E, at 10% discount to European banks despite its higher RoaTBV generation (15.0% vs 13.4% of EU banks). We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 3.00/share, a 20% upside potential.
4Q24 results | We project net interest income to shape at EUR 668.1m (-4% q-o-q, +17% y-o-y) on lower base rates and fee income to accelerate to EUR 171.1m (+2% q-o-q, +22% y-o-y). Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 839.2m (-3% q-o-q, +18% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 841.4m (-6% q-o-q, +9% y-o-y). Moreover, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 341.7m (+15% q-o-q, +49% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to stand at EUR 90.4m (+6% q-o-q, 0% y-o-y). On top of that, we incorporate a one-off cost of EUR 25.0m for school contribution. All in all, we estimate reported net profit to reach EUR 247.0m (-40% q-o-q, +55% y-o-y) in 4Q24.
2024 results | We forecast reported net profit to reach EUR 1.38bn (+21% y-o-y) and remuneration to shareholders to increase to EUR 0.1880/share (50% payout) from EUR 0.093/share (30% payout) in 2023, implying a gross yield of 7.5%. In more detail, we forecast NII to soar by 15% y-o-y to EUR ca2.5bn, fee income to accelerate by 14% y-o-y to EUR 621.6m and non-recurring revenues to drop to EUR 73.7m vs. EUR 85.9m in 2023. Hence, we estimate that total revenues will grow by 14% y-o-y to EUR 3.19bn. On the cost side, we project OpEx to soar by 22% y-o-y to EUR ca1.1bn and loan loss provisions to reach EUR 319.3m (-7% y-o-y).
Table 1 | 4Q24 Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 4Q24e |
3Q24 |
QoQ |
4Q23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
668.1 |
697.7 |
-4% |
572.8 |
17% |
|
Fee income |
171.1 |
167.8 |
2% |
140.8 |
22% |
|
Core income |
839.2 |
865.4 |
-3% |
713.5 |
18% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
2.2 |
26.0 |
-92% |
55.5 |
-96% |
|
Total revenues |
841.4 |
891.4 |
-6% |
769.0 |
9% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(341.7) |
(297.1) |
15% |
(229.1) |
49% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
499.6 |
594.3 |
-16% |
539.9 |
-7% |
|
Loan Impairments |
(90.4) |
(85.3) |
6% |
(90.0) |
0% |
|
Reported net profit |
247.0 |
413.6 |
-40% |
159.4 |
55% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company
Table 2 | 2024 Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 2024e |
2023 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
2,497.8 |
2,173.7 |
15% |
|
Fee income |
621.6 |
543.8 |
14% |
|
Core income |
3,119.4 |
2,717.5 |
15% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
73.7 |
85.9 |
-14% |
|
Total revenues |
3,193.1 |
2,803.4 |
14% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(1,096.0) |
(901.9) |
22% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
2,097.1 |
1,901.6 |
10% |
|
Loan Impairments |
(319.3) |
(344.7) |
-7% |
|
Reported net profit |
1,381.8 |
1,139.4 |
21% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company
Alpha Services and Holdings | CP: EUR 1.8440 | TP: EUR 2.55
Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | The end of one-offs cycle, all eyes on BP
4Q24 results preview | Alpha Services & Holdings is set to release 4Q24/FY2024 results on Friday 28 February at 08:00 Athens/06:00 London Time and management will host a conference call on the same day at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time. We expect bottom line to be lower on a sequential basis, burdened by one-off costs of EUR 32.6m (VSS, school contribution) and a NPA loss of EUR 51.0m. We also expect net credit expansion and deposits to accelerate in the last quarter of the year, in line with system trends and asset quality dynamics to improve further.
2024 results | We project reported net profit to reach EUR 600.8m (-2% y-o-y) in 2024. In more detail, we forecast NII to shape at EUR 1,643m (-1% y-o-y), fee income at EUR 410.5m (+10% y-o-y) and non-recurring revenues at EUR 120.0m (+45% y-o-y). Hence, we estimate that total revenues will advance by 3% y-o-y to EUR 2,173m. On the cost side, we estimate OpEx to stand at EUR 846.9m (+4% y-o-y), LLPs at EUR 238.6m (-23% y-o-y), an NPA loss of EUR 177.6m and one-off costs (VSS, school contribution) of EUR 64.9m. We also expect the NPE ratio to improve further and to squeeze to 3.9% in 2024 vs. 6.4% in 2023. Finally, we forecast that remuneration to shareholders will accelerate to EUR 0.089/share vs. EUR 0.052/share in 2023, implying a gross yield of 4.8%. Recall that Alpha distributed EUR 122.0m in 2023, o/w EUR 61.0m in cash dividend (EUR 0.026/share) and the remaining EUR 61.0m in share buyback.
4Q24 results | We expect net interest income to reach EUR 403.5m (-2% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y) in 4Q24, broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 406.0m and fee income to shape at EUR 104.8m (-4% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 108.0m. Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 508.4m (-2% q-o-q, -6% y-o-y), non-core revenues of EUR 24.8m (-9% q-o-q, -17% y-o-y) and total revenues of EUR 533.1m (-2% q-o-q, -6% y-o-y), 2% lower than consensus. On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 217.8m (+3% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to accelerate to EUR 71.2m (+34% q-o-q, -23% y-o-y) as well as a loss of EUR 51.0m from NPA transactions, higher than consensus estimate of EUR 35.0m. All in all, we estimate net profit to shape at EUR 111.7m (-33% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y) in 4Q24, EUR 22m lower than consensus estimate of EUR 134.0m, due to higher LLPs and NPA loss.
Optima view | We anticipate investors to focus on the new business plan targets and in specific on the evolution of net credit expansion, NII, fee income, LLPs as well as on the remuneration policy. The stock is trading 0.61x P/TBV25e, at a material discount of 47% to European banks and a 32% discount to its Greek peers. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector.
Table 1 | Quarterly P&L forecasts – Group
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 4Q24e |
3Q24 |
QoQ |
YoY |
Consensus 4Q24e |
Optima vs Cons |
|
Net Interest Income |
403.5 |
410.0 |
-2% |
-8% |
406.0 |
-0.6% |
|
Fee income |
104.8 |
108.8 |
-4% |
5% |
108.0 |
-2.9% |
|
Core income |
508.4 |
518.8 |
-2% |
-6% |
514.0 |
-1.1% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
24.8 |
27.2 |
-9% |
-17% |
32.0 |
-22.6% |
|
Total revenues |
533.1 |
546.0 |
-2% |
-6% |
546.0 |
-2.4% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(217.8) |
(210.7) |
3% |
16% |
(221.0) |
-1.4% |
|
Pre-provision profit |
315.3 |
335.3 |
-6% |
-17% |
325.0 |
-3.0% |
|
LLPs |
(71.2) |
(53.1) |
34% |
-23% |
(65.0) |
9.6% |
|
NPA loss |
(51.0) |
(18.4) |
177% |
-53% |
(35.0) |
45.7% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
111.7 |
166.7 |
-33% |
-7% |
134.0 |
-16.6% |
source: Company, Optima bank estimates, Median Consensus estimates-Company
Table 2 | FY2024 P&L forecasts – Group
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 2024e |
2023 |
YoY |
Consensus 2024e |
Optima vs Cons |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,642.5 |
1,653.5 |
-1% |
1,646.0 |
-0.2% |
|
Fee income |
410.5 |
372.5 |
10% |
415.0 |
-1.1% |
|
Core income |
2,053.0 |
2,025.9 |
1% |
2,061.0 |
-0.4% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
120.0 |
82.7 |
45% |
129.0 |
-7.0% |
|
Total revenues |
2,173.0 |
2,108.6 |
3% |
2,185.0 |
-0.6% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(846.9) |
(817.1) |
4% |
(848.0) |
-0.1% |
|
Pre-provision profit |
1,326.1 |
1,291.6 |
3% |
1,337.0 |
-0.8% |
|
LLPs |
(238.6) |
(308.3) |
-23% |
(240.0) |
-0.6% |
|
NPA loss |
(177.6) |
(86.2) |
106% |
(170.0) |
4.5% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
600.8 |
611.3 |
-2% |
622.0 |
-3.4% |
source: Company, Optima bank estimates, Median Consensus estimates-Company
National Bank of Greece | BUY | CP: EUR 8.46 | TP: 10.92
Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | NBG to deliver FY target despite one-offs
4Q24 results preview | National Bank of Greece is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results on Friday 28 February, before the opening of ATHEX and management will host a conference call on the same day at 10:30 Athens/08:30 London Time. We expect net profit to be softer q-o-q, burdened by one-off costs of EUR 120.0m (VSS, school contribution). On the positive side, we anticipate net credit expansion and deposits to accelerate in the last quarter of the year, in line with system trends.
2024 results | We estimate that reported net profit will shape at EUR 1.18bn (+7% y-o-y) in 2024 from EUR ca1.23bn previously on higher than expected one-off costs in 4Q24 and core PAT to reach EUR 1.28bn, broadly in line with management guidance of EUR ca1.3bn. In more detail, we forecast NII to stand at EUR 2,352m (+4% y-o-y), fee income at EUR 423.7m (+11% y-o-y) and non-recurring revenues at EUR 105.0m (+12% y-o-y). Hence, we estimate that total revenues will advance by 5% y-o-y to EUR 2,880m. Moreover, we forecast that OpEx will accelerate to EUR 883.7m (+6% y-o-y) and discontinued operations, minorities and other one-off costs (VSS, school contribution) will reach EUR 199.8m, whilst LLPs will narrow by 9% y-o-y to EUR 218.4m. We also anticipate remuneration to shareholders to accelerate to EUR 0.645/share vs. EUR 0.364/share in 2023, implying a gross yield of 7.5%, assuming a 50% payout (in line with mgt guidance) vs. 30% in 2023.
4Q24 results | We project net interest income to reach EUR 570.0m (-3% q-o-q, -9% y-o-y) in 4Q24e and fee income to shape at EUR 111.0m (+3% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y). Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 681.0m (-2% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y), non-core revenues at EUR 23.2m (+31% q-o-q, -23% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 704.2m (-1% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y). On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 245.2m (+13% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), LLP and other provisions to advance to EUR 59.7m (+16% q-o-q, -10% y-o-y) and discontinued operations and one-offs to jump to EUR 120.0m in the quarter from EUR 39.4m in 3Q24. Thus, we estimate net profit to shape at EUR 195.4m (-38% q-o-q) in 4Q24.
Optima view | We anticipate investors to focus on the new business plan targets and in specific on the evolution of net credit expansion, NII, fee income, LLPs as well as on the remuneration policy. The stock is trading 0.97x P/TBV25e, at 15% discount to European banks, despite its higher RoaTBV generation (14.0% vs. 13.3% of EU banks).
Table 1 | Quarterly P&L forecasts – Group
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 4Q24e |
3Q24 |
QoQ |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
570.0 |
589.3 |
-3% |
-9% |
|
Fee income |
111.0 |
107.6 |
3% |
2% |
|
Core income |
681.0 |
696.9 |
-2% |
-7% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
23.2 |
17.7 |
31% |
-23% |
|
Total revenues |
704.2 |
714.6 |
-1% |
-8% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(245.2) |
(217.3) |
13% |
5% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
459.0 |
497.3 |
-8% |
-13% |
|
Loan and other impairments |
(59.7) |
(51.6) |
16% |
-10% |
|
Discontinued operations, minorities & other |
(120.0) |
(39.4) |
205% |
101% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
195.4 |
314.7 |
-38% |
-38% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company
Table 2 | FY2024 P&L forecasts – Group
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 2024e |
2023 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
2,351.5 |
2,263.0 |
4% |
|
Fee income |
423.7 |
382.3 |
11% |
|
Core income |
2,775.2 |
2,645.3 |
5% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
105.0 |
93.4 |
12% |
|
Total revenues |
2,880.2 |
2,738.7 |
5% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(883.7) |
(835.2) |
6% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
1,996.5 |
1,903.5 |
5% |
|
Loan and other impairments |
(218.4) |
(240.9) |
-9% |
|
Discontinued operations, minorities & other |
(199.8) |
(187.1) |
7% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
1,180.3 |
1,106.0 |
7% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company
HELLENiQ ENERGY | NEUTRAL | Target Price EUR: 8.30 | CP: EUR 7.705
4Q/FY24e preview | Soft quarter, driven by margin correction, in a Solid year; We expect Final DPS of EUR 0.40
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q24e results today, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 18.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 135m (-50% y-o-y) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 27m from EUR 111m in 4Q23 (assuming depreciation expenses of EUR 84m, increased financial expenses of EUR 32m, and an effective tax rate at 22%).
In FY24e terms, we expect Group EBITDA adj. of EUR 888m, down by 28% y-o-y (and EUR 758m accounting from EUR 130m loss from inventory) and Net Profits adj. of EUR 311m, while accounting for inventory loss and the solidarity tax of EUR 175m, Reported Net Profits are expected to shape at EUR 37m (from EUR 478m a year ago).
Finally, we expect HE to declare a final DPS of EUR 0.40 (DY: 5.1%, on top of the recently distributed interim DPS of EUR 0.20).
4Q/FY24e Group Key P&L Forecasts
|
EUR m |
4Q23 |
4Q24e |
YoY |
FY23 |
FY24e |
YoY |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
147 |
136 |
-8% |
1,053 |
758 |
-28% |
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
269 |
135 |
-50% |
1,237 |
888 |
-28% |
|
refining |
236 |
111 |
-53% |
1,043 |
674 |
-35% |
|
marketing |
13 |
19 |
43% |
111 |
129 |
16% |
|
petchems |
8 |
5 |
-38% |
43 |
57 |
33% |
|
RES/other |
12 |
8 |
-30% |
40 |
44 |
11% |
|
IFRS Net Income*, ** |
15 |
25 |
63% |
478 |
37 |
-92% |
|
“Adjusted” Net income* |
111 |
27 |
-76% |
606 |
311 |
-49% |
Comment | We expect an improved q-o-q quarter for HELLENiQ ENERGY, driven by the more favorable refining environment. Short term catalysts for the stock are in our view the refining margins outlook, the final DPS, the developments regarding the Hydrocarbons exploration activity (potential FID for test drilling expected in the next few months) and the upcoming placement of the two major shareholders; that said and taking also into account the recent stock appreciation (+21% total return over the last 3 months), and the fact that HE is fairly valued (7.5x in P/E adj. terms for 2025e), we reiterate our EUR 8.30/share Target Price with a Neutral recommendation.
Calendar of Events
Macros
27/02/25 | Economic Sentiment Indicator FEB
28/02/25 | Producer Price Index in Industry JAN & Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC
07/03/25 | DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
28/02/25 | MSCI rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
4Q/FY24 Results Release
27/02/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt), Noval Property (Aft-mkt)
28/02/25 | National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings (08:00 GR time), Premia Properties
04/03/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
05/03/25 | Cenergy Holdings
06/03/25 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
23/04/25 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
03/07/25 | OTE
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
|
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |
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