Greek Market Watch: Building Activity, Banking loans, Banking Deposits, Moody’s Rating, OTE AGM, Piraeus AGM, PPC Dividend, Hellenic Energy Dividend, AVAX new Contract, Lamda Malls

OPTIMA

Today’s Headlines

·       Total building activity increased in March

·       Banking System Loans | May 2024

·       Banking System Deposits | May 2024

·       Moody’s Ratings upgrades Alpha Bank to Investment Grade  

·       OTE AGM today  

·       Piraeus Financial Holdings AGM today  

·       PPC AGM approves Dividend

·       HELLENiQ ENERGY AGM approves Dividend

·       AVAX signs a new EUR 42.9m contract with PPC Renewables

·       LAMDA Malls IPO postponed (press)

MARKET COMMENT

ATHEX headed south yesterday for a third consecutive session, underperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.41% at 1,400.43 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.42%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.15%, Banks Index: +0.24%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 127.9m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 166.4m. We expect ATHEX to follow the international markets today, eyeing the French elections on Sunday.

HEADLINES

Macro Headlines

Total building activity increased in March

According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 39.8% y-o-y in March 2024. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 34.8% and by 11.2% y-o-y respectively. In the April 2023- March 2024 period, Greek building activity grew by 14.0% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 16.3% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 16.2% y-o-y in terms of volume.

Sector Headlines

Banking System Loans | May 2024

(EURm)

Mar ’24

Apr ’24

May ’24

Total credit

192,722

191,528

192,140

General Government

75,318

74,928

75,641

Private sector

117,404

116,599

116,499

Corporate

76,393

75,667

75,661

Sole Proprietors

4,511

4,495

4,472

Household

36,500

36,438

36,367

Monthly net flow

1,514

-815

659

% y-o-y

3.0%

2.6%

2.7%

Private sector Monthly net flow

1,983

-789

66

% y-o-y

4.5%

4.5%

4.8%

source: BoG

Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 192.1bn in May 2024 (+2.7% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 659m), primarily due to the positive monthly net flow of the General Government by EUR 593m as well as positive monthly net flow of the private sector by just EUR 66m. Loans to the private sector increased by 4.8% y-o-y to EUR 116.5bn.

Comment: Net credit expansion turned marginally positive in May. In more detail, corporate loans reached EUR ca75.7bn (+8.3% y-o-y, positive monthly flow by EUR 105m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 4.47bn (+0.3%         y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 7m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR ca36.4bn (-1.0% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 32m). Housing loans came in at EUR 27.4bn (-2.8% y-o-y, negative monthly   net flow of EUR 53m). Consumer loans reached EUR ca8.7bn (+5.3% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow of EUR 7m). Corporate loans accounted for 65% of private sector loans, household loans for 31% and other loans for the remaining 4%.

Banking System Deposits | May 2024

(EURm)

Mar ’24

Apr ’24

May ’24

System Deposits

197,211

197,390

197,672

General Government

6,959

6,706

6,767

Private sector

190,253

190,683

190,905

Corporate

45,355

45,404

45,962

Household

144,898

145,279

144,944

Private Sector Monthly net flow

1,675

384

303

Private Sector % y-o-y

2.6%

2.8%

2.5%

Private Sector % y-t-d

-2.3%

-2.1%

-2.0%

source: BoG

Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 197.7bn (+1.1% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 363m) in May 2024. General Government deposits reached EUR 6.8bn (-27.0% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 60m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 190.9bn (+2.5% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 303m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR 46.0bn (+3.1% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 577m) and household deposits at EUR 144.9bn (+2.3% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 274m). Household deposits accounted for 76% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 24%.

Comment: The monthly increase in private sector deposits in May is attributed to corporate deposits. Time deposits posted a positive monthly net flow by EUR 40.9m and accounted for 19.3% of private sector depos. Liquidity remains ample, with the LDR at 61.0% vs. 61.1% in April and the commercial surplus increased to EUR 74.4bn from 74.1bn in April.

Company Headlines

Moody’s Ratings upgrades Alpha Bank to Investment Grade  

Moody’s Ratings upgraded Alpha Bank by two notches to Investment Grade after 14 years, with a positive outlook. The upgrade reflects the bank’s solid progress on recurring profitability, capital and asset quality as well as its comfortable funding profile and the outlook for the Greek economy. In more detail, the Long-term and short-term deposit ratings upgraded to Baa3, the long-term senior unsecured debt rating to Baa3, the subordinated (Tier 2) rating was upgraded by 2 notches to Ba2 and the Baseline Credit Assessment to Ba2. The news is positive.

OTE AGM today  

OTE holds its AGM today at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve among others the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.71 per share (DY: 5.2%, ex-dividend: 04 July) and the cancellation of 5,308,440 own shares. In other news, the company announced that its subsidiary OTE plc, issued a EUR 40m bond due October 2024. The yield was set at 3,997% per annum and the bond was fully subscribed by Deutsche Telekom. The proceeds of the bond will be used to cover the general corporate needs of OTE Group

Piraeus Financial Holdings AGM today  

Piraeus holds its AGM today at 17:30 Athens/15:30 London Time. Shareholders will approve among others the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.063 per share (DY: 1.9%, ex-dividend: 10 July).

PPC AGM approves Dividend

During yesterday’s AGM, PPC approved among others the distribution of a EUR 0.25/share dividend for FY23 (ex-date: 22/7, DY: 2.3%). During the AGM, PPC’s management reiterated the FY24e EBITDA target of EUR 1.8bn, adding that the company targets at a 55% payout ratio by 2026e, from ~35% for 2023. Finally, with respect to the telcom business, Mr. Stassis said that PPC’s Fiber to the home network already covers 185k households, and targets to expand to 1.7m households and enterprises by 2025e.

HELLENiQ ENERGY AGM approves Dividend

During yesterday’s AGM, HELLENiQ ENERGY approved among others the distribution of a EUR 0.60/share final dividend for FY23 (ex-date: 10/7, DY: 7.6%).

During the AGM, the management expressed its surprise and objection with regards to the recent announcement for the taxation of the “excess profits” of the refineries for 2023, adding that the timing was also out of date, since the dividend distributions were already declared, and will negatively affect the future distributions for 2024-25.

Additionally, regarding DEPA Commercial, the management said that the Group is in talks with the Greek State (major shareholder of DEPA with 65%) for the potential disposal of its 35% stake in the company. Finally, the management reiterated that the decisions on potential drilling activity for hydrocarbons offshore of Crete and the Peloponnese will be taken in the next 12-18 months.

AVAX signs a new EUR 42.9m contract with PPC Renewables

AVAX signed a EUR 42.9m contract with PPCR for the engineering, procurement, construction and operation of a 125MW solar park in Megalopolis, Peloponnese.

LAMDA Malls IPO postponed (press)

According to Euro2day.gr, during yesterday’s AGM, the management of LAMDA Development said that the timing is unfavorable for the IPO of LAMDA Malls, as the sector trades at deep discounts in the market.

CALENDAR OF EVENTS

Macros

28/06/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry MAY & Turnover Index in Retail Trade APR

01/07/24 | Unemployment Rate MAY & S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI JUN

09/07/24 | CPI & Harmonized CPI JUN

10/07/24 | Industrial Production Index MAY

1Q24 Results Release

28/06/24 | Attica Bank

EGM / AGM

28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM), EKTER (AGM), Frigoglass (AGM), Creta Plastics (AGM), Alumil (AGM), AVE (AGM), Pairis (AGM), Bitros (AGM)

02/07/24 | KRI-KRI (AGM)

03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM), Quality & Reliability (rep. EGM)

04/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Elinoil (AGM)

05/07/24 | Sunrise Mezz PLC (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC (AGM), ILYDA (AGM), Medicon (AGM)

08/07/24 | ELLAKTOR (EGM), Real Consulting (AGM)

09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), Lavipharm (AGM), Centric (AGM)

10/07/24 | Intrakat (AGM), Papoutsanis (EGM)

11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM), Alpha Real Estate (AGM)

12/07/24 | Attica Group (AGM)

16/07/24 | Attica Bank (AGM)

17/07/24 | Motor Oil (EGM)

19/07/24 | Quality & Reliability (AGM)

23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)

24/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)

25/07/24 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)

26/07/24 | Evrofarma (AGM)

20/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co. (AGM)

30/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)

04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM)

06/09/24 | Domiki Kritis (AGM), Unibios (AGM)

10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

28/06/24 | Performance Technologies (EUR 0.05263)

01/07/24 | Loulis Food (EUR 0.12)

02/07/24 | Flexopack (EUR 0.15)

03/07/24 | Interlife (EUR 0.16)

04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)

05/07/24 | Trastor REIC (EUR 0.02), Mevaco (EUR 0.15)

08/07/24 | Terna Energy (EUR 0.3821128409), EKTER

10/07/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.063), HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company (EUR 0.13762556)

15/07/24 | Vogiatzoglou Systems (EUR 0.145), Medicon

16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Alpha Real Estate

18/07/24 | ILYDA (EUR 0.02)

19/07/24 | Attica Group (EUR 0.07)

22/07/24 | PPC (EUR 0.25), EYDAP (EUR 0.10), Space Hellas (EUR 0.16)

25/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (EUR 0.0933)

26/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (EUR 0.026)

29/07/24 | National Bank of Greece (EUR 0.36), Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34), AVAX (EUR 0.03)

01/08/24 | Creta Plastics

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co.

02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding

11/09/24 | Ble Kedros

12/09/24 | Evrofarma

17/09/24 | Epsilon Net

Ex-Capital Return

02/07/24 | Intracom Holdings (EUR 0.07)

22/07/24 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.50)

25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings (EUR 0.20)

26/08/24 | Biokarpet (EUR 0.02)

28/08/24 | GEK TERNA (EUR 0.25)

10/10/24 | Unibios

ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)

02/07/24 | AS Company (09:30 Athens time) 

Research Department
Equity Research

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr

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